Vehicle-cycle and life-cycle analysis of medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks in the United States.

Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles account for a substantial portion (25 %) of transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. Efforts to reduce these emissions focus primarily on diesel hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells, and battery electric vehicles. However, these efforts ignore the high energy intensity of producing lithium (Li)-ion batteries and the carbon fiber used in fuel-cell vehicles. Here, we conduct a life-cycle analysis to compare the impacts of the vehicle manufacturing cycle for Class 6 (pickup-and-delivery, PnD) and Class 8 (day- and sleeper-cab) trucks with diesel, electric, fuel-cell, and hybrid powertrains. We assume that all trucks were manufactured in the US in 2020 and operated over 2021-2035, and we developed a comprehensive materials inventory for all trucks. Our analysis reveals that common systems (trailer/van/box, truck body, chassis, and lift-gates) dominate the vehicle-cycle GHG emissions (64-83 % share) of diesel, hybrid, and fuel-cell powertrains. Conversely, propulsion systems (lithium-ion batteries and fuel-cell systems) contribute substantially to these emissions for electric (43-77 %) and fuel-cell powertrains (16-27 %). These vehicle-cycle contributions arise from the extensive use of steel and aluminum, the high energy/GHG intensity of producing lithium-ion batteries and carbon fiber, and the assumed battery replacement schedule for Class 8 electric trucks. A switch from the conventional diesel powertrain to alternative electric and fuel-cell powertrains causes an increase in vehicle-cycle GHG emissions (by 60-287 % and 13-29 %, respectively) but leads to substantial GHG reductions when considering the combined vehicle- and fuel-cycles (Class 6: 33-61 %, Class 8: 2-32 %), highlighting the benefits of this shift in powertrains and energy supply chain. Finally, payload variation significantly influences the relative life-cycle performance of different powertrains, while LIB cathode chemistry has a negligible effect on BET life-cycle GHGs.

An Analysis of the Potential and Cost of the U.S. Refinery Sector Decarbonization.

In 2019, U.S. petroleum refineries emitted 196 million metric tons (MT) of CO2, while the well-to-gate and the full life cycle CO2 emissions were significantly higher, reaching 419 and 2843 million MT of CO2, respectively. This analysis examines decarbonization opportunities for U.S. refineries and the cost to achieve both refinery-level and complete life-cycle CO2 emission reductions. We used 2019 life-cycle CO2 emissions from U.S. refineries as a baseline and identified three categories of decarbonization opportunity: (1) switching refinery energy inputs from fossil to renewable sources (e.g., switch hydrogen source); (2) carbon capture and storage of CO2 from various refining units; and (3) changing the feedstock from petroleum crude to biocrude using various blending levels. While all three options can reduce CO2 emissions from refineries, only the third can reduce emissions throughout the life cycle of refinery products, including the combustion of fuels (e.g., gasoline and diesel) during end use applications. A decarbonization approach that combines strategies 1, 2, and 3 can achieve negative life-cycle CO2 emissions, with an average CO2 avoidance cost of $113-$477/MT CO2, or $54-$227/bbl of processed crude; these costs are driven primarily by the high cost of biocrude feedstock.

Provincial Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Gasoline and Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Comparison from the Consumption-Based Electricity Perspective.

China has implemented strong incentives to promote the market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). In this study, we compare the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities of PEVs with those of gasoline vehicles at the provincial level in the year 2017 by considering the heterogeneity in the consumption-based electricity mix and climate impacts on vehicle fuel economy. Results show a high variation of provincial WTW GHG emission intensities for battery electric vehicles (BEVs, 22-293 g CO2eq/km) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs, 82-298 g CO2eq/km) in contrast to gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs, 227-245 g CO2eq/km) and gasoline hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs, 141-164 g CO2eq/km). Due to the GHG-intensive coal-based electricity and cold weather, WTW GHG emission intensities of BEVs and PHEVs are higher than those of gasoline ICEVs in seven and ten northern provinces in China, respectively. WTW GHG emission intensities of gasoline HEVs, on the other hand, are lower in 18 and 26 provinces than those of BEVs and PHEVs, respectively. The analysis suggests that province-specific PEV and electric grid development policies should be considered for GHG emission reductions of on-road transportation in China.

Synthetic Lubricants Derived from Plastic Waste and their Tribological Performance.

The energy efficiency, mechanical durability, and environmental compatibility of all moving machine components rely heavily on advanced lubricants for smooth and safe operation. Herein an alternative family of high-quality liquid (HQL) lubricants was derived by the catalytic conversion of pre- and post-consumer polyolefin waste. The plastic-derived lubricants performed comparably to synthetic base oils such as polyalphaolefins (PAOs), both with a wear scar volume (WSV) of 7.5×10-5  mm-3 . HQLs also performed superior to petroleum-based lubricants such as Group III mineral oil with a WSV of 1.7×10-4  mm-3 , showcasing a 44 % reduction in wear. Furthermore, a synergistic reduction in friction and wear was observed when combining the upcycled plastic lubricant with synthetic oils. Life cycle and techno-economic analyses also showed this process to be energetically efficient and economically feasible. This novel technology offers a cost-effective opportunity to reduce the harmful environmental impact of plastic waste on our planet and to save energy through reduction of friction and wear-related degradations in transportation applications akin to synthetic oils.

Synthetic Methanol/Fischer-Tropsch Fuel Production Capacity, Cost, and Carbon Intensity Utilizing CO2 from Industrial and Power Plants in the United States.

Captured CO2 is a potential feedstock to produce fuel/chemicals using renewable electricity as the energy source. We explored resource availability and synergies by region in the United States and conducted cost and environmental analysis to identify unique opportunities in each region to inform possible regional and national actions for carbon capture and utilization development. This study estimated production cost of synthetic methanol and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels by using CO2 captured from the waste streams emitted from six industrial [ethanol, ammonia, natural gas (NG) processing, hydrogen, cement, and iron/steel production plants] and two power generation (coal and NG) processes across the United States. The results showed that a total of 1594 million metric ton per year of waste CO2 can be captured and converted into 85 and 319 billion gallons of FT fuels and methanol, respectively. FT fuels can potentially substitute for 36% of the total petroleum fuels used in the transportation sector in 2018. Technoeconomic analysis shows that the minimum selling prices for synthetic FT fuels and methanol are 1.8-2.8 times the price of petroleum fuel/chemicals, but the total CO2 reduction potential is 935-1777 MMT/year.

Technoeconomic and Life Cycle Analysis of Synthetic Methanol Production from Hydrogen and Industrial Byproduct CO2.

CO2 capture and utilization provides an alternative pathway for low-carbon hydrocarbon production. Given the ample supply of high-purity CO2 emitted from ethanol and ammonia plants, this study conducted technoeconomic analysis and environmental life cycle analysis of several systems: integrated methanol-ethanol coproduction, integrated methanol-ammonia coproduction, and stand-alone methanol production systems, using CO2 feedstock from ethanol plants, ammonia plants, and general market CO2 supply. The cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas emissions of methanol produced from the stand-alone methanol, integrated methanol-ethanol, and integrated methanol-ammonia systems are 13.6, 37.9, and 84.6 g CO2-equiv/MJ, respectively, compared to 91.5 g CO2-equiv/MJ of conventional methanol produced from natural gas. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of methanol ($0.61-0.64/kg) is 61-68% higher than the average market methanol price of $0.38/kg, when using a Department of Energy target renewable hydrogen production price of $2.0/kg. The methanol price increases to $1.24-1.28/kg when the hydrogen price is $5.0/kg. Without CO2 abatement credits, the H2 price needs to be within $0.77-0.95/kg for the MFSP of methanol to equal the average methanol market price. With a CO2 credit of $35/MT according to tax credit per metric ton of CO2 captured and used, the methanol price is reduced to $0.56-0.59/kg.

Life Cycle Analysis of Electrofuels: Fischer-Tropsch Fuel Production from Hydrogen and Corn Ethanol Byproduct CO2.

Electrofuels from renewable H2 and waste CO2 streams are of increasing interest because of their CO2 emissions reduction potentials compared to fossil counterparts. This study evaluated the well-to-wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels from various electrolytic H2 pathways and CO2 sources, using various process designs (i.e., with and without H2 recycle) and system boundaries. Two systems with different boundaries were considered: a stand-alone plant (with CO2 from any source) and an integrated plant with corn ethanol production (supplying CO2). The FT fuel synthesis process was modeled using Aspen Plus, which showed that 45% of the carbon in CO2 can be fixed in the FT fuel, with a fuel production energy efficiency of 58%. Using nuclear or solar/wind electricity, the stand-alone FT fuel production from various plant designs can reduce WTW GHG emissions by 90-108%, relative to petroleum fuels. When integrating the FT fuel production process with corn ethanol production, the WTW GHG emissions of FT fuels are 57-65% lower compared to petroleum counterparts. This study highlights the sensitivity of the carbon intensity of FT fuels to the system boundary selection (i.e., stand-alone vs integrated), which has different implications under various GHG emission credit frameworks.

Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Zero-Emission Plug-In Battery Electric Vehicle Technology for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks.

Conventional diesel medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) create large amount of air emissions. With the advancement in technology and reduction in the cost of batteries, plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasingly attractive options for improving energy efficiency and reducing air emissions of MHDVs. In this paper, we compared the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutant emissions of MHD BEVs with their conventional diesel counterparts across weight classes and vocations. We expanded the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model to conduct the WTW analysis of MHDVs. The fuel economy for a wide range of MHDV weight classes and vocations, over various driving cycles, was evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle dynamic simulation software (Autonomie). The environmental impacts of MHD BEVs are sensitive to the source of electricity used to recharge their batteries. The WTW results show that MHD BEVs significantly improve environmental sustainability of MHDVs by providing deep reductions in WTW GHGs, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide emissions, compared to conventional diesel counterparts. Increasing shares of renewable and natural gas technologies in future national and regional electricity generation are expected to reduce WTW particulate matters and sulfur oxide emissions for further improvement of the environmental performance of MHD BEVs.

Criteria Air Pollutant and Greenhouse Gases Emissions from U.S. Refineries Allocated to Refinery Products.

Using Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program data (GHGRP) and National Emissions Inventory data from 2014, we investigate U.S. refinery greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions (VOC, CO, NO x, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5). The study derives (1) combustion emission factors (EFs) of refinery fuels (e.g., refinery catalyst coke and refinery combined gas), (2) U.S. refinery GHG emissions and CAP emissions per crude throughput at the national and regional levels, and (3) GHG and CAP emissions attributable to U.S. refinery products. The latter two emissions were further itemized by source: combustion emission, process emission, and facility-wide emission. We estimated U.S. refinery product GHG and CAP emissions via energy allocation at the refinery process unit level. The unit energy demand and unit flow information were adopted from the Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model (PRELIM version 1.1) by fitting individual U.S. refineries. This study fills an important information gap because it (1) evaluates refinery CAP emissions along with GHG emissions and (2) provides CAP and GHG emissions not only for refinery main products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.) but also for refinery secondary products (asphalt, lubricant, wax, light olefins, etc.).

Criteria Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydrogen Production in U.S. Steam Methane Reforming Facilities.

The global and U.S. domestic effort to develop a clean energy economy and curb environmental pollution incentivizes the use of hydrogen as a transportation fuel, owing to its zero tailpipe pollutant emissions and high fuel efficiency in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). However, the hydrogen production process is not emissions free. Conventional hydrogen production via steam methane reforming (SMR) is energy intensive, coproduces carbon dioxide, and emits air pollutants. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the environmental impacts of SMR hydrogen production alongside the use-phase of FCEVs. This study fills the information gap, analyzing the greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions associated with hydrogen production in U.S. SMR facilities by compiling and matching the facility-reported GHG and CAP emissions data with facilities' hydrogen production data. The actual amounts of hydrogen produced at U.S. SMR facilities are often confidential. Thus, we have developed four approaches to estimate the hydrogen production amounts. The resultant GHG and CAP emissions per MJ of hydrogen produced in individual facilities were aggregated to develop emission values for both a national median and a California state median. This study also investigates the breakdown of facility emissions into combustion emissions and noncombustion emissions.

AWARE-US: Quantifying water stress impacts of energy systems in the United States.

Energy production typically consumes a large amount of fresh water, which is a critical resource for both human and ecosystem needs. Robust water impact analysis is prudent prior to deploying new energy systems at scale. While there are many water indices representing relative water availability (or scarcity), they are not suitable for analyzing the impact of consumptive water in the context of life-cycle analysis (LCA). The available water remaining (AWARE) concept, developed by the Water Use in LCA Group, enables global water impact analysis (AWARE-Global). However, while AWARE-Global enables consistent comparison internationally, it lacks the high spatial resolution and fidelity needed for decision-making at the local level regarding energy system deployment within the United States (U.S.). In this study, we developed an AWARE system for applications in the contiguous U.S. (AWARE-US) by incorporating measured runoff and human water use data at U.S. county-level resolution. Results of AWARE-US quantify the water stress and the impacts of increase in water consumption in various regions within the U.S. To demonstrate the potential use of AWARE-US, we evaluated the impacts of a potential hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle deployment scenario on the regional water stress in various regions within the U.S.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Impacts of Vehicle Weight Reduction via Material Substitution on Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

This study examines the vehicle-cycle and vehicle total life-cycle impacts of substituting lightweight materials into vehicles. We determine part-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emission ratios by collecting material substitution data and evaluating that alongside known mass-based GHG ratios (using and updating Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model) associated with material pair substitutions. Several vehicle parts are lightweighted via material substitution, using substitution ratios from a U.S. Department of Energy report, to determine GHG emissions. We then examine fuel-cycle GHG reductions from lightweighting. The fuel reduction value methodology is applied using FRV estimates of 0.15-0.25, and 0.25-0.5 L/(100km·100 kg), with and without powertrain adjustments, respectively. GHG breakeven values are derived for both driving distance and material substitution ratio. While material substitution can reduce vehicle weight, it often increases vehicle-cycle GHGs. It is likely that replacing steel (the dominant vehicle material) with wrought aluminum, carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CRFP), or magnesium will increase vehicle-cycle GHGs. However, lifetime fuel economy benefits often outweigh the vehicle-cycle, resulting in a net total life-cycle GHG benefit. This is the case for steel replaced by wrought aluminum in all assumed cases, and for CFRP and magnesium except for high substitution ratio and low FRV.

Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Canadian Oil Sands Products: Implications for U.S. Petroleum Fuels.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations affecting U.S. transportation fuels require holistic examination of the life-cycle emissions of U.S. petroleum feedstocks. With an expanded system boundary that included land disturbance-induced GHG emissions, we estimated well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emissions of U.S. production of gasoline and diesel sourced from Canadian oil sands. Our analysis was based on detailed characterization of the energy intensities of 27 oil sands projects, representing industrial practices and technological advances since 2008. Four major oil sands production pathways were examined, including bitumen and synthetic crude oil (SCO) from both surface mining and in situ projects. Pathway-average GHG emissions from oil sands extraction, separation, and upgrading ranged from ∼6.1 to ∼27.3 g CO2 equivalents per megajoule (in lower heating value, CO2e/MJ). This range can be compared to ∼4.4 g CO2e/MJ for U.S. conventional crude oil recovery. Depending on the extraction technology and product type output of oil sands projects, the WTW GHG emissions for gasoline and diesel produced from bitumen and SCO in U.S. refineries were in the range of 100-115 and 99-117 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, representing, on average, about 18% and 21% higher emissions than those derived from U.S. conventional crudes. WTW GHG emissions of gasoline and diesel derived from diluted bitumen ranged from 97 to 103 and 96 to 104 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, showing the effect of diluent use on fuel emissions.

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission intensity of petroleum products at U.S. refineries.

This paper describes the development of (1) a formula correlating the variation in overall refinery energy efficiency with crude quality, refinery complexity, and product slate; and (2) a methodology for calculating energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities and processing fuel shares of major U.S. refinery products. Overall refinery energy efficiency is the ratio of the energy present in all product streams divided by the energy in all input streams. Using linear programming (LP) modeling of the various refinery processing units, we analyzed 43 refineries that process 70% of total crude input to U.S. refineries and cover the largest four Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions (I, II, III, V). Based on the allocation of process energy among products at the process unit level, the weighted-average product-specific energy efficiencies (and ranges) are estimated to be 88.6% (86.2%-91.2%) for gasoline, 90.9% (84.8%-94.5%) for diesel, 95.3% (93.0%-97.5%) for jet fuel, 94.5% (91.6%-96.2%) for residual fuel oil (RFO), and 90.8% (88.0%-94.3%) for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The corresponding weighted-average, production GHG emission intensities (and ranges) (in grams of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2e) per megajoule (MJ)) are estimated to be 7.8 (6.2-9.8) for gasoline, 4.9 (2.7-9.9) for diesel, 2.3 (0.9-4.4) for jet fuel, 3.4 (1.5-6.9) for RFO, and 6.6 (4.3-9.2) for LPG. The findings of this study are key components of the life-cycle assessment of GHG emissions associated with various petroleum fuels; such assessment is the centerpiece of legislation developed and promulgated by government agencies in the United States and abroad to reduce GHG emissions and abate global warming.

U.S. refinery efficiency: impacts analysis and implications for fuel carbon policy implementation.

In the next two decades, the U.S. refining industry will face significant changes resulting from a rapidly evolving domestic petroleum energy landscape. The rapid influx of domestically sourced tight light oil and relative demand shifts for gasoline and diesel will impose challenges on the ability of the U.S. refining industry to satisfy both demand and quality requirements. This study uses results from Linear Programming (LP) modeling data to examine the potential impacts of these changes on refinery, process unit, and product-specific efficiencies, focusing on current baseline efficiency values across 43 existing large U.S. refineries that are operating today. These results suggest that refinery and product-specific efficiency values are sensitive to crude quality, seasonal and regional factors, and refinery configuration and complexity, which are determined by final fuel specification requirements. Additional processing of domestically sourced tight light oil could marginally increase refinery efficiency, but these benefits could be offset by crude rebalancing. The dynamic relationship between efficiency and key parameters such as crude API gravity, sulfur content, heavy products, residual upgrading, and complexity are key to understanding possible future changes in refinery efficiency. Relative to gasoline, the efficiency of diesel production is highly variable, and is influenced by the number and severity of units required to produce diesel. To respond to future demand requirements, refiners will need to reduce the gasoline/diesel (G/D) production ratio, which will likely result in greater volumes of diesel being produced through less efficient pathways resulting in reduced efficiency, particularly on the marginal barrel of diesel. This decline in diesel efficiency could be offset by blending of Gas to Liquids (GTL) diesel, which could allow refiners to uplift intermediate fuel streams into more efficient diesel production pathways, thereby allowing for the efficient production of incremental barrels of diesel without added capital investment for the refiner. Given the current wide range of refinery carbon intensity values of baseline transportation fuels in LCA models, this study has shown that the determination of refinery, unit, and product efficiency values requires careful consideration in the context of specific transportation fuel GHG policy objectives.

Life-cycle analysis of bio-based aviation fuels.

Well-to-wake (WTWa) analysis of bio-based aviation fuels, including hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ) from various oil seeds, Fischer-Tropsch jet (FTJ) from corn-stover and co-feeding of coal and corn-stover, and pyrolysis jet from corn stover, is conducted and compared with petroleum jet. WTWa GHG emission reductions relative to petroleum jet can be 41-63% for HRJ, 68-76% for pyrolysis jet and 89% for FTJ from corn stover. The HRJ production stage dominates WTWa GHG emissions from HRJ pathways. The differences in GHG emissions from HRJ production stage among considered feedstocks are much smaller than those from fertilizer use and N2O emissions related to feedstock collection stage. Sensitivity analyses on FTJ production from coal and corn-stover are also conducted, showing the importance of biomass share in the feedstock, carbon capture and sequestration options, and overall efficiency. For both HRJ and FTJ, co-product handling methods have significant impacts on WTWa results.

Life cycle analysis of fuel production from fast pyrolysis of biomass.

A well-to-wheels (WTW) analysis of pyrolysis-based gasoline was conducted and compared with petroleum gasoline. To address the variation and uncertainty in the pyrolysis pathways, probability distributions for key parameters were developed with data from literature. The impacts of two different hydrogen sources for pyrolysis oil upgrading and of two bio-char co-product applications were investigated. Reforming fuel gas/natural gas for H2 reduces WTW GHG emissions by 60% (range of 55-64%) compared to the mean of petroleum fuels. Reforming pyrolysis oil for H2 increases the WTW GHG emissions reduction up to 112% (range of 97-126%), but reduces petroleum savings per unit of biomass used due to the dramatic decline in the liquid fuel yield. Thus, the hydrogen source causes a trade-off between GHG reduction per unit fuel output and petroleum displacement per unit biomass used. Soil application of biochar could provide significant carbon sequestration with large uncertainty.