Assessing the impacts of timing on the health benefits, cost-effectiveness and relative affordability of COVID-19 vaccination programmes in 27 African Countries

BackgroundThe COVID-19 vaccine supply shortage in 2021 constrained rollout efforts in Africa while populations experienced waves of epidemics. As supply picks up, a key question becomes if vaccination remains an impactful and cost-effective strategy given changes in the timing of implementation. MethodsWe assessed the impact of timing using an epidemiological and economic model. We fitted our mathematical epidemiological model to reported COVID-19 deaths in 27 African countries to estimate the existing immunity (resulting from infection) before substantial vaccine rollout. We then projected health outcomes for different programme start dates (2021-01-01 to 2021-12-01, n = 12) and roll-out rates (slow, medium, fast; 275, 826, and 2066 doses/ million population-day, respectively) for viral vector and mRNA vaccines. Rollout rates used were derived from observed uptake trajectories. We collected data on vaccine delivery costs by country income group. Lastly, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and relative affordability. FindingsVaccination programmes with early start dates incur the most health benefits and are most cost-effective. While incurring the most health benefits, fast vaccine roll-outs are not always the most cost-effective. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5xGDP per capita, vaccine programmes starting in August 2021 using mRNA and viral vector vaccines were cost-effective in 6-10 and 17-18 of 27 countries, respectively. InterpretationAfrican countries with large proportions of their populations unvaccinated by late 2021 may find vaccination programmes less cost-effective than they could have been earlier in 2021. Lower vaccine purchasing costs and/or the emergence of new variants may improve cost-effectiveness. FundingBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization, National Institute of Health Research (UK), Health Data Research (UK)

Assessing the cost of providing a prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS service in Ethiopia: urban-rural health facilities setting.

BACKGROUND: While local context costing evidence is relevant for healthcare planning, budgeting and cost-effectiveness analysis, it continues to be scarce in Ethiopia. This study assesses the cost of providing a prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS (PMTCT) service across heterogeneous prevalence (high, low) and socio-economic (urban, rural) contexts. METHODS: A total of 12 health facilities from six regions in Ethiopia were purposively selected from the latest 2012 antenatal sentinel HIV prevalence report. Six health facilities with the highest HIV prevalence (8.1 to 17.3%) in urban settings and six health facilities with the lowest prevalence (0.0 to 0.1%) in rural settings were selected. A micro-costing approach was applied to identify, measure and value resources used for the provision of a comprehensive PMTCT service. The analysis was conducted across different PMTCT service packages. We also estimated national costs in urban and rural contexts. RESULTS: The average cost per pregnant woman-infant pair per year (PPY) ranged from ETB 6280 (USD 319) to ETB 21,620 (USD 1099) in the urban high HIV prevalence health facilities setting. In rural low HIV prevalence health facilities, the cost ranged from ETB 4323 (USD 220) to ETB 7539 (USD 383).PMTCT service provision in urban health facilities costs more than twice the cost in rural health facilities. The average cost per PPY in an urban setting was more than double the cost in a rural setting due to the higher cost of inputs and possible inefficiencies (although there were a higher number of visits). Consumables (including antiretroviral drugs) and infrastructure were the major cost drivers in both the urban and rural health facilities. Among PMTCT service components, anti-retroviral treatment Option B+ follow-up and counselling accounted for the highest proportion of costs, which ranged from 58 to 72%. Nationally, at the current coverage, the cost of PMTCT service was USD 6 million and USD 3 million in urban and rural settings, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis suggests that resources used for PMTCT service packages varied across health facilities and HIV prevalence contexts. Providing PMTCT service in the high HIV prevalence urban health facilities costs more than in the rural facilities. Context-specific costing was vital to provide locally sensitive evidence for health service management and priority setting.

Factors associated with the utilization of antenatal care and prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission services in Ethiopia: applying a count regression model.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission (PMTCT) coverage has been low in Ethiopia and the service has been implemented in a fragmented manner. Solutions to this problem have mainly been sought on the supply-side in the form of improved management and allocation of limited resources. However, this approach largely ignores the demand-side factors associated with low PMTCT coverage in the country. The study assesses the factors associated with the utilization of PMTCT services taking into consideration counts of visits to antenatal care (ANC) services in urban high-HIV prevalence and rural low-HIV prevalence settings in Ethiopia. METHODS: A multivariate regression model was employed to identify significant factors associated with PMTCT service utilization. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were applied, considering the number of ANC visits as a dependent variable. The explanatory variables were age; educational status; type of occupation; decision-making power in the household; living in proximity to educated people; a neighborhood with good welfare services; location (urban high-HIV prevalence and rural low-HIV prevalence); transportation accessibility; walking distance (in minutes); and household income status. The alpha dispersion test (a) was performed to measure the goodness-of-fit of the model. Significant results were reported at p-values of < 0.05 and < 0.001. RESULTS: Household income, socio-economic setting (urban high-HIV prevalence and rural low-HIV prevalence) and walking distance (in minutes) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of ANC visits by pregnant women (p < 0.05). A pregnant woman from an urban high-HIV prevalence setting would be expected to make 34% more ANC visits (counts) than her rural low-HIV prevalence counterparts (p < 0.05). Holding other variables constant, a unit increase in household income would increase the expected ANC visits by 0.004%. An increase in walking distance by a unit (a minute) would decrease the number of ANC visits by 0.001(p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Long walking distance, low household income and living in a rural setting are the significant factors associated with low PMTCT service utilization. The primary strategies for a holistic policy to improve ANC/PMTCT utilization should thus include improving the geographical accessibility of ANC/PMTCT services, expanding household welfare and paying more attention to remote rural areas.

The State of Health Technology Assessment in the Ethiopian Health Sector: Learning from Recent Policy Initiatives.

Health technology assessment (HTA) has previously been implemented only in a fragmented manner in the Ethiopian health sector decision-making cycle, and the sector has been hampered by limited institutional capacity and skilled human resources to inform evidence-based decision making. The country is in the midst of widescale implementation of a community-based health insurance scheme and is preparing for the launch of a social health insurance scheme. The country continues to face a limited financial resource envelope, undergoing an epidemiological transition, and is facing a much greater burden of noncommunicable diseases, for which the essential health benefit package, defined 12 years ago, may no longer be suitable. This has called for an in-depth review of the application of HTA in the context of the current health needs and institutional settings. To meet the increasing need for HTA, the Health Economics and Financing Analysis (HEFA) team was established within the Finance Resource Mobilization Department under the Ministry of Health. The HEFA team is tasked with spearheading the application of evidence-based health care decision making in Ethiopia by organizing available evidence, costing interventions, and defining effectiveness measures of the different health programs and then supporting policymakers at the national and regional levels. Improving and harmonizing the institutional approach to HTA, including staffing the HEFA team with the appropriate mix of expertise, and networking with relevant sector organizations will improve Ethiopia's ability to tackle the current health sector challenges as well as protect fledgling insurance schemes' progress toward universal health coverage.

HIV-positive pregnant women attending the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS (PMTCT) services in Ethiopia: economic productivity losses across urban-rural settings.

HIV/AIDS impacts significantly on pregnant women and on children in Ethiopia. This impact has a multiplier effect on household economies and on productivity losses, and is expected to vary across rural and urban settings. Applying the human capital approach to data collected from 131 respondents, this study estimated productivity losses per HIV-positive pregnant woman-infant pair across urban and rural health facilities in Ethiopia, which in turn were used to estimate the national productivity loss. The study found that the annual productivity loss per woman-infant pair was Ethiopian birr (ETB) 7,433 or United States dollar (US$) 378 and ETB 625 (US$ 32) in urban and rural settings, respectively. The mean patient days lost per year due to inpatient admission at hospitals/health centres was 11 in urban and 22 in rural health facilities. On average, urban home care-givers spent 20 (SD = 21) days annually providing home care services, while their rural counterparts spent 23 days (SD = 26). The productivity loss accounted for 16% and 7% of household income in urban and rural settings, respectively. These high and varying productivity losses require preventive interventions that are appropriate to each setting to ensure the welfare of women and children in Ethiopia.

Economic Evaluation in Ethiopian Healthcare Sector Decision Making: Perception, Practice and Barriers.

BACKGROUND: Globally, economic evaluation (EE) is increasingly being considered as a critical tool for allocating scarce healthcare resources. However, such considerations are less documented in low-income countries, such as in Ethiopia. In particular, to date there has been no assessment conducted to evaluate the perception and practice of and barriers to health EE. OBJECTIVE: This paper assesses the use and perceptions of EE in healthcare decision-making processes in Ethiopia. METHODS: In-depth interview sessions with decision makers/healthcare managers and program coordinators across six regional health bureaus were conducted. A qualitative analysis approach was conducted on three thematic areas. RESULTS: A total of 57 decision makers/healthcare managers were interviewed from all tiers of the health sector in Ethiopia, ranging from the Federal Ministry of Health down to the lower levels of the health facility pyramid. At the high-level healthcare decision-making tier, only 56 % of those interviewed showed a good understanding of EE when explaining in terms of cost and consequences of alternative courses of action and value for money. From the specific program perspective, 50 % of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS program coordinators indicated the relevance of EE to program planning and decision making. These respondents reported a limited application of costing studies on the HIV/AIDS prevention and control program, which were most commonly used during annual planning and budgeting. CONCLUSION: The study uncovered three important barriers to growth of EE in Ethiopia: a lack of awareness, a lack of expertise and skill, and the traditional decision-making culture.