Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

Detection of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase protein Cm-HMGR during fruit development in melon ( Cucumis melo L.).

The fruit size of melon ( Cucumis melo L. reticulatus) is determined by the amount of cell proliferation in the pericarp during early fruit development. During this stage, expression and activity of the 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGR) gene is required for fruit growth. In this study, we performed a detailed analysis of the correlation between the expression of melon HMGR (Cm-HMGR) protein and cell division in the pericarp. Flow cytometric analysis revealed that the length of the cell division stage was correlated with the fruit size. Western gel blotting and tissue printing illustrated the temporal and spatial accumulation pattern of Cm-HMGR protein during fruit development. The accumulation of Cm-HMGR transiently increased at the beginning of the cell division stage in the pericarp, where active cell division occurred. The amount of Cm-HMGR was correlated with the length of the cell division period. These results strongly suggest that the expression of Cm-HMGR is involved in the determination of melon fruit size by regulating cell division during early fruit development.

Cloning and characterization of the gene encoding 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase in melon (Cucumis melo L. reticulatus).

We have isolated a cDNA for Cm-HMGR, encoding 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase in melon (Cucumis melo L. reticulatus; Genbank Accession No. AB021862). Cm-HMGR encodes a polypeptide of 588 amino acids that contains two transmembrane domains and a catalytic domain. Database searches revealed that Cm-HMGR shows homology to HMG1 (63.7%) and HMG2 (70.3%) of tomato, to HMG1 (77.2%) and HMG2 (69.4%) of Arabidopsis thaliana, and to HMGR of tobacco (72.6%). Functional expression in a HMG-CoA reductase-deficient mutant yeast showed that Cm-HMGR products mediate the synthesis of mevalonate. Northern analysis revealed that the level of Cm-HMGR mRNA in the fruit increased after pollination and markedly decreased at the end of fruit enlargement. During ripening, Cm-HMGR mRNA levels increased markedly in the fruit. In parallel with mRNA expression, Cm-HMGR activity increased after pollination, whereas no Cm-HMGR activity was detectable during fruit ripening. Our results suggest that Cm-HMGR is important during early post-pollination development of the fruit in melon.

A system for a multiframing interferometry and its application to a plasma focus experiment.

A four-framing Mach-Zehnder interferometer system which has variable intervals from frame to frame is developed. TEA N(2) lasers that are operated with atmospheric-pressure N(2) gas are employed as light sources. Applicability of the system is demonstrated for a rapidly changing plasma in the plasma focus discharge.