The CATFISH study: An evaluation of a water fluoridation program in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess the effectiveness of a Water Fluoridation program on a contemporary population of children. METHODS: The study used a longitudinal prospective cohort design. In Cumbria, England, two groups of children were recruited and observed over a period of 5-6 years. The Birth Cohort consisted of families recruited from two hospitals in Cumbria where children were conceived after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The systemic and topical effects of community water fluoridation were evaluated in the Birth Cohort. The Older Cohort were approximately 5 years old and recruited from primary schools in Cumbria, shortly after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The predominantly topical effects of fluoridated water were evaluated in the Older Cohort. The primary outcome was the proportion of children with clinical evidence of caries experience in their primary (Birth Cohort) or permanent teeth (Older Cohort). Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were used for analysis. RESULTS: The final clinical examinations for the Birth Cohort involved 1444 participants (mean age 4.8 years), where 17.4% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience, compared to 21.4% in the control group. A beneficial effect of water fluoridation was observed adjusting for deprivation (a socioeconomic measure), sex, and age, (adjusted odds ratio 0.74 95% CI 0.55 to 0.98). The final Older Cohort clinical examinations involved 1192 participants (mean age 10.8 years) where 19.1% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience compared to 21.9% in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.09). For both the Birth Cohort and Older Cohort there was evidence of a beneficial effect on dmft/DMFT count (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.86) and (IRR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52, 0.93) respectively. No conclusive proof was found to indicate that the effectiveness of water fluoridation differed across area deprivation quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: In the contemporary context of lower caries levels and widespread use of fluoride toothpaste, the impact of water fluoridation on the prevalence of caries was smaller than previous studies have reported. It is important to consider the clinical importance of the absolute reduction in caries prevalence against the use of other dental caries preventive measures.

Generalisation of Social Communication Skills by Autistic Children During Play-Based Assessments Across Home, School and an Unfamiliar Research Setting.

We investigated autistic children's generalisation of social communication over time across three settings during a play-based assessment with different adults and explore the potential moderating effects on generalisation of age, nonverbal IQ and level of restricted and repetitive behaviours. The social communication abilities of 248 autistic children (2-11 years, 21% female, 22% single parent, 60% white) from three UK sites were assessed from 1984 video interactions in three contexts with three different interaction partners (parent/home, teaching assistant/school, researcher/clinic) at baseline, midpoint (+ 7m) and endpoint (+ 12m) within the Paediatric Autism Communication Trial-Generalised (PACT-G), a parent-mediated social communication intervention. Children's midpoint social communication at home generalised to school at midpoint and to clinic at endpoint. Generalisation was stronger from home to school and clinic than school to home and clinic. Generalisation was not moderated by age, nonverbal IQ or restricted and repetitive behaviour. Broader child development did not explain the pattern of results. The current study is the largest study to date to explore generalisation with autistic children and provides novel insight into their generalisation of social communication skills. Further research is needed to gain a more comprehensive understanding of facilitators of generalisation across settings and interaction partners in order to develop targeted strategies for interventions to enhance outcomes for young autistic children.

Economic evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long-standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost-effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, United Kingdom, provided a unique opportunity to study the contemporary impact of water fluoridation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of water fluoridation over a 5-6 years follow-up period in two distinct cohorts: children exposed to water fluoridation in utero and those exposed from the age of 5. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was summarized employing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained). Costs included those from the National Health Service (NHS) and local authority perspective, encompassing capital and running costs of water fluoridation, as well as NHS dental activity. The measure of health benefit was the QALY, with utility determined using the Child Health Utility 9-Dimension questionnaire. To account for uncertainty, estimates of net cost and outcomes were bootstrapped (10 000 bootstraps) to generate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis performed with alternative specifications. RESULTS: There were 306 participants in the birth cohort (189 and 117 in the non-fluoridated and fluoridated groups, respectively) and 271 in the older school cohort (159 and 112, respectively). In both cohorts, there was evidence of small gains in QALYs for the fluoridated group compared to the non-fluoridated group and reductions in NHS dental service cost that exceeded the cost of fluoridation. For both cohorts and across all sensitivity analyses, there were high probabilities (>62%) of water fluoridation being cost-effective with a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides current economic evidence that water fluoridation is likely to be cost-effective. The findings contribute valuable contemporary evidence in support of the economic viability of water fluoridation scheme.

Investigating the effect of providing monetary incentives to participants on completion rates of referred co-respondents: An embedded randomized controlled trial.

Background: The use of a second informant (co-respondent) is a common method of identifying potential bias in outcome data (e.g., parent-report child outcomes). There is, however, limited evidence regarding methods of increasing response rates from co-respondents. The use of financial incentives is associated with higher levels of engagement and follow-up data collection in online surveys. This study investigated whether financial incentives paid to index participants in an online trial of a parenting-focused intervention, would lead to higher levels of co-respondent data collection. Methods: A study within a trial (SWAT) using a parallel group RCT design. Participants in the host study (an RCT of an online intervention) were randomised into one of two SWAT arms: received/did not receive a £15 voucher when referred co-respondent completed baseline measures. Primary outcome was completion (No/Yes) of Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS or SCAS-Pre) at baseline. Additional analysis explored impact of incentives on data quality. Results: Intention to treat analysis of 899 parents (183 co-respondents) in the no-incentive arm, and 911 parents (199 co-respondents) in incentive arm. Nomination of co-respondents was similar between incentive arms. The RR for the incentive arm compared to the no incentive arm was 1.13 (95% CI: 0.91 to 1.41, p = 0.264) indicating that incentives did not impact completion of outcomes by consented co-respondents. There were no indications of different data quality between arms. Discussion: The finding that payment of financial incentives to index participant does not lead to greater levels of co-respondent outcome completion suggests that careful consideration should be made before allocating resources in this way in future trials. Trial registration: The host study was registered at Study Record | ClinicalTrials.gov and the SWAT study was registered in the SWAT Store | The Northern Ireland Network for Trials Methodology Research (qub.ac.uk): SWAT number 143: Filetoupload,1099612,en.pdf (qub.ac.uk).

Safety and efficacy of autologous haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation with low-dose cyclophosphamide mobilisation and reduced intensity conditioning versus standard of care in refractory Crohn's disease (ASTIClite): an open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: A previous controlled trial of autologous haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) in patients with refractory Crohn's disease did not meet its primary endpoint and reported high toxicity. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of HSCT with an immune-ablative regimen of reduced intensity versus standard of care in this patient population. METHODS: This open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial was conducted in nine National Health Service hospital trusts across the UK. Adults (aged 18-60 years) with active Crohn's disease on endoscopy (Simplified Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease [SES-CD] ulcer sub-score of ≥2) refractory to two or more classes of biological therapy, with no perianal or intra-abdominal sepsis or clinically significant comorbidity, were recruited. Participants were centrally randomly assigned (2:1) to either HSCT with a reduced dose of cyclophosphamide (intervention group) or standard care (control group). Randomisation was stratified by trial site by use of random permuted blocks of size 3 and 6. Patients in the intervention group underwent stem-cell mobilisation (cyclophosphamide 1 g/m2 with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) 5 µg/kg) and stem-cell harvest (minimum 2·0 × 106 CD34+ cells per kg), before conditioning (fludarabine 125 mg/m2, cyclophosphamide 120 mg/kg, and rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin [thymoglobulin] 7·5 mg/kg in total) and subsequent stem-cell reinfusion supported by G-CSF. Patients in the control group continued any available conventional, biological, or nutritional therapy. The primary outcome was absence of endoscopic ulceration (SES-CD ulcer sub-score of 0) without surgery or death at week 48, analysed in the intention-to-treat population by central reading. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, 17160440. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2018, and Nov 8, 2019, 49 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 23 (47%) were randomly assigned: 13 (57%) to the intervention group and ten (43%) to the control group. In the intervention group, ten (77%) participants underwent HSCT and nine (69%) reached 48-week follow-up; in the control group, nine (90%) reached 48-week follow-up. The trial was halted in response to nine reported suspected unexpected serious adverse reactions in six (46%) patients in the intervention group, including renal failure due to proven thrombotic microangiopathy in three participants and one death due to pulmonary veno-occlusive disease. At week 48, absence of endoscopic ulceration without surgery or death was reported in three (43%) of seven participants in the intervention group and in none of six participants in the control group with available data. Serious adverse events were more frequent in the intervention group (38 in 13 [100%] patients) than in the control group (16 in four [40%] patients). A second patient in the intervention group died after week 48 of respiratory and renal failure. INTERPRETATION: Although HSCT with an immune-ablative regimen of reduced intensity decreased endoscopic disease activity, significant adverse events deem this regimen unsuitable for future clinical use in patients with refractory Crohn's disease. FUNDING: Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research partnership.

Undertaking Studies Within A Trial to evaluate recruitment and retention strategies for randomised controlled trials: lessons learnt from the PROMETHEUS research programme.

Background: Randomised controlled trials ('trials') are susceptible to poor participant recruitment and retention. Studies Within A Trial are the strongest methods for testing the effectiveness of strategies to improve recruitment and retention. However, relatively few of these have been conducted. Objectives: PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial aimed to facilitate at least 25 Studies Within A Trial evaluating recruitment or retention strategies. We share our experience of delivering the PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial programme, and the lessons learnt for undertaking randomised Studies Within A Trial. Design: A network of 10 Clinical Trials Units and 1 primary care research centre committed to conducting randomised controlled Studies Within A Trial of recruitment and/or retention strategies was established. Promising recruitment and retention strategies were identified from various sources including Cochrane systematic reviews, the Study Within A Trial Repository, and existing prioritisation exercises, which were reviewed by patient and public members to create an initial priority list of seven recruitment and eight retention interventions. Host trial teams could apply for funding and receive support from the PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial team to undertake Studies Within A Trial. We also tested the feasibility of undertaking co-ordinated Studies Within A Trial, across multiple host trials simultaneously. Setting: Clinical trials unit-based trials recruiting or following up participants in any setting in the United Kingdom were eligible. Participants: Clinical trials unit-based teams undertaking trials in any clinical context in the United Kingdom. Interventions: Funding of up to £5000 and support from the PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial team to design, implement and report Studies Within A Trial. Main outcome measures: Number of host trials funded. Results: Forty-two Studies Within A Trial were funded (31 host trials), across 12 Clinical Trials Units. The mean cost of a Study Within A Trial was £3535. Twelve Studies Within A Trial tested the same strategy across multiple host trials using a co-ordinated Study Within A Trial design, and four used a factorial design. Two recruitment and five retention strategies were evaluated in more than one host trial. PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial will add 18% more Studies Within A Trial to the Cochrane systematic review of recruitment strategies, and 79% more Studies Within A Trial to the Cochrane review of retention strategies. For retention, we found that pre-notifying participants by card, letter or e-mail before sending questionnaires was effective, as was the use of pens, and sending personalised text messages to improve questionnaire response. We highlight key lessons learnt to guide others planning Studies Within A Trial, including involving patient and public involvement partners; prioritising and selecting strategies to evaluate and elements to consider when designing a Study Within A Trial; obtaining governance approvals; implementing Studies Within A Trial, including individual and co-ordinated Studies Within A Trials; and reporting Study Within A Trials. Limitations: The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted five Studies Within A Trial, being either delayed (n = 2) or prematurely terminated (n = 3). Conclusions: PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial significantly increased the evidence base for recruitment and retention strategies. When provided with both funding and practical support, host trial teams successfully implemented Studies Within A Trial. Future work: Future research should identify and target gaps in the evidence base, including widening Study Within A Trial uptake, undertaking more complex Studies Within A Trial and translating Study Within A Trial evidence into practice. Study registration: All Studies Within A Trial in the PROMoting THE Use of Studies Within A Trial programme had to be registered with the Northern Ireland Network for Trials Methodology Research Study Within A Trial Repository. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 13/55/80) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 2. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

A Study Within A Trial is a research study nested inside a larger 'host trial', promoting the use of Studies Within A Trial aimed to do Study Within A Trial routine practice in clinical trial units by funding and supporting at least 25 Studies Within A Trial. The best way to test health and social care treatments is to do a randomised controlled trial ('trial'), where some patients get the treatment being tested and some do not. The results of different groups are compared to see if the treatment improves care. Recruiting patients and keeping them involved in trials is often very difficult. Research teams often do not know how best to recruit and keep patients engaged as the methods have not been tested to see if they work. The best way to test these methods is by doing a Study Within A Trial. We test a programme of Studies Within A Trial for recruiting and keeping patients engaged in trials. Trial teams were able to apply for funding of up to £5000 and receive support from Promoting the use of Study Within A Trial team to do Studies Within A Trial. We used our experience of doing Studies Within A Trial to outline lessons learnt for doing Studies Within A Trial. We funded 42 Studies Within A Trial and gave teams necessary advice to do them. We significantly increased the knowledge for both recruitment and retention strategies, and found 'pre-notifying' before sending questionnaires, sending pens and personalised text messages were all effective for increasing responses by participants. We tested Studies Within A Trial across several different trials at the same time to find out more quickly whether their methods worked. We highlight key lessons learnt to guide others doing Studies Within A Trial, including involving patient partners; picking the right strategy to test; getting ethical approvals; how to do and report Studies Within A Trial. Promoting the use of studies within a trial was successful and supported more Studies Within A Trial than planned. We hope our experience will support those doing Studies Within A Trial in the future.

Characterizing the Neurobiological Mechanisms of Action of Exercise and Cognitive-Behavioral Interventions for Rheumatoid Arthritis Fatigue: A Magnetic Resonance Imaging Brain Study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic fatigue is a major clinical unmet need among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Current therapies are limited to nonpharmacological interventions, such as personalized exercise programs (PEPs) and cognitive-behavioral approaches (CBAs); however, most patients still continue to report severe fatigue. To inform more effective therapies, we conducted a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain study of PEPs and CBAs, nested within a randomized controlled trial (RCT), to identify their neurobiological mechanisms of fatigue reduction in RA. METHODS: A subgroup of patients with RA (n = 90), participating in an RCT of PEPs and CBAs for fatigue, undertook a multimodal MRI brain scan following randomization to either usual care (UC) alone or in addition to PEPs and CBAs and again after the intervention (six months). Brain regional volumetric, functional, and structural connectivity indices were curated and then computed employing a causal analysis framework. The primary outcome was fatigue improvement (Chalder fatigue scale). RESULTS: Several structural and functional connections were identified as mediators of fatigue improvement in both PEPs and CBAs compared to UC. PEPs had a more pronounced effect on functional connectivity than CBAs; however, structural connectivity between the left isthmus cingulate cortex (L-ICC) and left paracentral lobule (L-PCL) was shared, and the size of mediation effect ranked highly for both PEPs and CBAs (ßAverage = -0.46, SD 0.61; ßAverage = -0.32, SD 0.47, respectively). CONCLUSION: The structural connection between the L-ICC and L-PCL appears to be a dominant mechanism for how both PEPs and CBAs reduce fatigue among patients with RA. This supports its potential as a substrate of fatigue neurobiology and a putative candidate for future targeting.

The interplay between suicidal experiences, psychotic experiences and interpersonal relationships: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Suicidal thoughts, acts, plans and deaths are considerably more prevalent in people with non-affective psychosis, including schizophrenia, compared to the general population. Social isolation and interpersonal difficulties have been implicated in pathways which underpin suicidal experiences in people with severe mental health problems. However, the interactions between psychotic experiences, such as hallucinations and paranoia, suicidal experiences, and the presence, and indeed, absence of interpersonal relationships is poorly understood and insufficiently explored. The current study sought to contribute to this understanding. METHODS: An inductive thematic analysis was conducted on transcripts of 22, individual, semi-structured interviews with adult participants who had both non-affective psychosis and recent suicidal experiences. A purposive sampling strategy was used. Trustworthiness of the analysis was assured with researcher triangulation. RESULTS: Participants relayed both positive and negative experiences of interpersonal relationships. A novel conceptual model is presented reflecting a highly complex interplay between a range of different suicidal experiences, psychosis, and aspects of interpersonal relationships. Three themes fed into this interplay, depicting dynamics between perceptions of i. not mattering and mattering, ii. becoming disconnected from other people, and iii. constraints versus freedom associated with sharing suicidal and psychotic experiences with others. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a detailed insight into ways in which interpersonal relationships are perceived to interact with psychotic and suicidal experiences in ways that can be both beneficial and challenging. This is important from scientific and clinical perspectives for understanding the complex pathways involved in suicidal experiences. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03114917), 14th April 2017. ISRCTN (reference ISRCTN17776666 .); 5th June 2017). Registration was recorded prior to participant recruitment commencing.

User engagement in a randomised controlled trial for a digital health intervention for early psychosis (Actissist 2.0 trial).

Digital Health Interventions (DHIs) can help support people with mental health problems. Achieving satisfactory levels of patient engagement is a crucial, yet often underexplored, pre-requisite for health improvement. Actissist is a co-produced DHI delivered via a smartphone app for people with early psychosis, based on Cognitive Behaviour Therapy principles. This study describes and compares engagement patterns among participants in the two arms of the Actissist 2.0 randomised controlled trial. Engagement frequency and duration were measured among participants using the Actissist app in the intervention arm (n = 87) and the ClinTouch symptom monitoring only app used as the control condition (n = 81). Overall, 47.1 % of Actissist and 45.7 % of ClinTouch users completed at least a third of scheduled alerts while active in the study. The mean frequency (77.1 versus 60.2 total responses) and the median duration (80 versus 75 days until last response) of engagement were not significantly higher among Actissist users compared to ClinTouch users. Older age, White ethnicity, using their own smartphone device and, among Actissist users, an increased sense of therapeutic alliance were significantly associated with increased engagement. Through exploiting detailed usage data, this study identifies possible participant-level and DHI-level predictors of engagement to inform the practical implementation of future DHIs.

A randomised controlled trial of clinical and cost-effectiveness of the PASS Plus intervention for young children with autism spectrum disorder in New Delhi, India: study protocol for the COMPASS trial.

BACKGROUND: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disability affecting at least 5 million children in South Asia. Majority of these children are without access to evidence-based care. The UK Pre-school Autism Communication Therapy (PACT) is the only intervention to have shown sustained impact on autism symptoms. It was systematically adapted for non-specialist community delivery in South Asia, as the 'Parent-mediated Autism Social Communication Intervention for non-Specialists (PASS)' and extended 'PASS Plus' interventions. RCTs of both showed feasibility, acceptability and positive effect on parent and child dyadic outcomes. METHODS: The Communication-centred Parent-mediated treatment for Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Asia (COMPASS) trial is now a scale-up two-centre, two-arm single (rater) blinded random allocation parallel group study of the PASS Plus intervention in addition to treatment as usual (TAU) compared to TAU alone, plus health economic evaluation embedded in the India health system. Two hundred forty children (approximately 120 intervention/120 TAU) with ASD aged 2-9 years will be recruited from two tertiary care government hospitals in New Delhi, India. Accredited Social Health Activists will be one of the intervention delivery agents. Families will undertake up to 12 communication sessions over 8 months and will be offered the Plus modules which address coexisting problems. The trial's primary endpoint is at 9 months from randomisation, with follow-up at 15 months. The primary outcome is autism symptom severity; secondary outcomes include parent-child communication, child adaptation, quality of life and parental wellbeing. Primary analysis will follow intention-to-treat principles using linear mixed model regressions with group allocation and repeated measures as random effects. The cost-effectiveness analysis will use a societal perspective over the 15-month period of intervention and follow-up. DISCUSSION: If clinically and cost-effective, this programme will fill an important gap of scalable interventions delivered by non-specialist health workers within the current care pathways for autistic children and their families in low-resource contexts. The programme has been implemented through the COVID-19 pandemic when restrictions were in place; intervention delivery and evaluation processes have been adapted to address these conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN; ISRCTN21454676 ; Registered 22 June 2018.

Research Reviews: Advances in methods for evaluating child and adolescent mental health interventions.

BACKROUND: The evidence base for interventions for child mental health and neurodevelopment is weak and the current capacity for rigorous evaluation limited. We describe some of the challenges that make this field particularly difficult and expensive for evaluation studies. METHODS: We describe and review the use of novel study designs and analysis methodology for their potential to improve this situation. RESULTS: While several novel designs appeared ill-suited to our field, systematic review found others that offered potential but had yet to be widely adopted, some not at all. CONCLUSIONS: While funding is inevitably a constraint, we argue that improvements in the evidence base of both current and new treatments will only be achieved by the adoption of a number of these new technologies and study designs, the consistent application of rigorous constructive but demanding standards, and the engagement of the public, patients, clinical and research services to build a design, recruitment, and analysis infrastructure.

The voice characterisation checklist: psychometric properties of a brief clinical assessment of voices as social agents.

Aim: There is growing interest in tailoring psychological interventions for distressing voices and a need for reliable tools to assess phenomenological features which might influence treatment response. This study examines the reliability and internal consistency of the Voice Characterisation Checklist (VoCC), a novel 10-item tool which assesses degree of voice characterisation, identified as relevant to a new wave of relational approaches. Methods: The sample comprised participants experiencing distressing voices, recruited at baseline on the AVATAR2 trial between January 2021 and July 2022 (n = 170). Inter-rater reliability (IRR) and internal consistency analyses (Cronbach's alpha) were conducted. Results: The majority of participants reported some degree of voice personification (94%) with high endorsement of voices as distinct auditory experiences (87%) with basic attributes of gender and age (82%). While most identified a voice intention (75%) and personality (76%), attribution of mental states (35%) to the voice ('What are they thinking?') and a known historical relationship (36%) were less common. The internal consistency of the VoCC was acceptable (10 items, α = 0.71). IRR analysis indicated acceptable to excellent reliability at the item-level for 9/10 items and moderate agreement between raters' global (binary) classification of more vs. less highly characterised voices, κ = 0.549 (95% CI, 0.240-0.859), p < 0.05. Conclusion: The VoCC is a reliable and internally consistent tool for assessing voice characterisation and will be used to test whether voice characterisation moderates treatment outcome to AVATAR therapy. There is potential wider utility within clinical trials of other relational therapies as well as routine clinical practice.

Implementation of the trial emulation approach in medical research: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: When conducting randomised controlled trials is impractical, an alternative is to carry out an observational study. However, making valid causal inferences from observational data is challenging because of the risk of several statistical biases. In 2016 Hernán and Robins put forward the 'target trial framework' as a guide to best design and analyse observational studies whilst preventing the most common biases. This framework consists of (1) clearly defining a causal question about an intervention, (2) specifying the protocol of the hypothetical trial, and (3) explaining how the observational data will be used to emulate it. METHODS: The aim of this scoping review was to identify and review all explicit attempts of trial emulation studies across all medical fields. Embase, Medline and Web of Science were searched for trial emulation studies published in English from database inception to February 25, 2021. The following information was extracted from studies that were deemed eligible for review: the subject area, the type of observational data that they leveraged, and the statistical methods they used to address the following biases: (A) confounding bias, (B) immortal time bias, and (C) selection bias. RESULTS: The search resulted in 617 studies, 38 of which we deemed eligible for review. Of those 38 studies, most focused on cardiology, infectious diseases or oncology and the majority used electronic health records/electronic medical records data and cohort studies data. Different statistical methods were used to address confounding at baseline and selection bias, predominantly conditioning on the confounders (N = 18/49, 37%) and inverse probability of censoring weighting (N = 7/20, 35%) respectively. Different approaches were used to address immortal time bias, assigning individuals to treatment strategies at start of follow-up based on their data available at that specific time (N = 21, 55%), using the sequential trial emulations approach (N = 11, 29%) or the cloning approach (N = 6, 16%). CONCLUSION: Different methods can be leveraged to address (A) confounding bias, (B) immortal time bias, and (C) selection bias. When working with observational data, and if possible, the 'target trial' framework should be used as it provides a structured conceptual approach to observational research.

Investigating Specific Associations Between Childhood Victimization Profiles and Positive Psychosis Symptoms: The Mediating Roles of Anxiety, Depression, and Schema.

Background: Childhood trauma is a risk factor for psychosis. It is proposed this is due to traumatic events giving rise to psychological mechanisms that are implicated in the development and maintenance of symptoms. Investigation of the psychological mechanisms accounting for relationships between trauma and psychosis will be assisted by focusing on specific trauma profiles, hallucination modalities, and delusion subtypes. Study Design: In 171 adults with schizophrenia-spectrum diagnoses and high-conviction delusions, associations between childhood trauma classes, and hallucination and delusion factors, were tested using structural equation models (SEMs). Anxiety, depression, and negative schema were examined as potential mediators of trauma class-psychosis symptom factor links. Study Results: Significant associations were found between the emotional abuse/neglect and poly-victimization classes with persecutory delusions and delusions of influence, that were all mediated through anxiety (ß = 1.24-0.23, P = < .05). There was an association between the physical abuse class and grandiose/religious delusions that was not explained by the mediators (ß = 1.86, P = < .05). Trauma class was not significantly associated with any hallucination modality (ß = 0.004-1.46, P = > .05). Conclusions: In a sample of people with strongly held delusions, this study demonstrates that childhood victimization is associated with delusions of influence and grandiose beliefs, as well as with persecutory delusions in psychosis. Consistent with previous findings, the potent, mediating role of anxiety supports affective pathway theories and the utility of targeting threat-related processes when treating trauma effects in psychosis.

A culturally adapted manual-assisted problem-solving intervention (CMAP) for adults with a history of self-harm: a multi-centre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Self-harm is an important predictor of a suicide death. Culturally appropriate strategies for the prevention of self-harm and suicide are needed but the evidence is very limited from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of a culturally adapted manual-assisted problem-solving intervention (CMAP) for patients presenting after self-harm. METHODS: This was a rater-blind, multicenter randomised controlled trial. The study sites were all participating emergency departments, medical wards of general hospitals and primary care centres in Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, and Quetta, Pakistan. Patients presenting after a self-harm episode (n = 901) to participating recruitment sites were assessed and randomised (1:1) to one of the two arms; CMAP with enhanced treatment as usual (E-TAU) or E-TAU. The intervention (CMAP) is a manual-assisted, cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT)-informed problem-focused therapy, comprising six one-to-one sessions delivered over three months. Repetition of self-harm at 12-month post-randomisation was the primary outcome and secondary outcomes included suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, health-related quality of life (QoL), coping resources, and level of satisfaction with service received, assessed at baseline, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month post-randomisation. The trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. NCT02742922 (April 2016). RESULTS: We screened 3786 patients for eligibility and 901 eligible, consented patients were randomly assigned to the CMAP plus E-TAU arm (n = 440) and E-TAU arm (N = 461). The number of self-harm repetitions for CMAP plus E-TAU was lower (n = 17) compared to the E-TAU arm (n = 23) at 12-month post-randomisation, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.407). There was a statistically and clinically significant reduction in other outcomes including suicidal ideation (- 3.6 (- 4.9, - 2.4)), depression (- 7.1 (- 8.7, - 5.4)), hopelessness (- 2.6 (- 3.4, - 1.8), and improvement in health-related QoL and coping resources after completion of the intervention in the CMAP plus E-TAU arm compared to the E-TAU arm. The effect was sustained at 12-month follow-up for all the outcomes except for suicidal ideation and hopelessness. On suicidal ideation and hopelessness, participants in the intervention arm scored lower compared to the E-TAU arm but the difference was not statistically significant, though the participants in both arms were in low-risk category at 12-month follow-up. The improvement in both arms is explained by the established role of enhanced care in suicide prevention. CONCLUSIONS: Suicidal ideation is considered an important target for the prevention of suicide, therefore, CMAP intervention should be considered for inclusion in the self-harm and suicide prevention guidelines. Given the improvement in the E-TAU arm, the potential use of brief interventions such as regular contact requires further exploration.

Accelerating the development of a psychological intervention to restore treatment decision-making capacity in patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: a study protocol for a multi-site, assessor-blinded, pilot Umbrella trial (the DEC:IDES trial).

BACKGROUND: A high proportion of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders will at some point in their lives be assessed as not having the capacity to make their own decisions about pharmacological treatment or inpatient care ('capacity'). Few will be helped to regain it before these interventions proceed. This is partly because effective and safe methods to do so are lacking. Our aim is to accelerate their development by testing, for the first time in mental healthcare, the feasibility, acceptability and safety of running an 'Umbrella' trial. This involves running, concurrently and under one multi-site infrastructure, multiple assessor-blind randomised controlled trials, each of which is designed to examine the effect on capacity of improving a single psychological mechanism ('mechanism'). Our primary objectives are to demonstrate feasibility of (i) recruitment and (ii) data retention on the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool-Treatment (MacCAT-T; planned primary outcome for a future trial) at end-of-treatment. We selected three mechanisms to test: 'self-stigma', low self-esteem and the 'jumping to conclusions' bias. Each is highly prevalent in psychosis, responsive to psychological intervention, and hypothesised to contribute to impaired capacity. METHODS: Sixty participants with schizophrenia-spectrum diagnoses, impaired capacity and one or more mechanism(s) will be recruited from outpatient and inpatient mental health services in three UK sites (Lothian, Scotland; Lancashire and Pennine; North West England). Those lacking capacity to consent to research could take part if the key criteria were met, including either proxy consent (Scotland) or favourable Consultee advice (England). They will be allocated to one of three randomised controlled trials, depending on which mechanism(s) they have. They will then be randomised to receive, over an 8-week period and in addition to treatment as usual (TAU), 6 sessions of either a psychological intervention which targets the mechanism, or 6 sessions of assessment of the causes of their incapacity (control condition). Participants are assessed at 0 (baseline), 8 (end-of-treatment) and 24 (follow-up) weeks post-randomisation using measures of capacity (MacCAT-T), mechanism, adverse events, psychotic symptoms, subjective recovery, quality of life, service use, anxiety, core schemata and depression. Two nested qualitative studies will be conducted; one to understand participant and clinician experiences and one to investigate the validity of MacCAT-T appreciation ratings. DISCUSSION: This will be the first Umbrella trial in mental healthcare. It will produce the first 3 single-blind randomised controlled trials of psychological interventions to support treatment decision-making in schizophrenia-spectrum disorder. Demonstrating feasibility will have significant implications not only for those seeking to support capacity in psychosis, but also for those who wish to accelerate the development of psychological interventions for other conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04309435 . Pre-registered on 16 March 2020.

Does treating insomnia with digital cognitive behavioural therapy (Sleepio) mediate improvements in anxiety for those with insomnia and comorbid anxiety? An analysis using individual participant data from two large randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Considerable comorbidity exists between insomnia and anxiety, and evidence shows that the benefits of CBT for insomnia extend to anxiety. Using data from two large trials of digital CBT (dCBT) for insomnia, we evaluated whether improving sleep is an effective treatment target to reduce both insomnia and anxiety symptoms in individuals with insomnia and clinically significant anxiety. METHODS: This was a controlled sub-analysis combining individual participant data from two previous randomised controlled trials of dCBT for insomnia (Sleepio). Participants (N = 2172) with insomnia disorder and clinically significant anxiety symptoms were included in this sub-analysis and received either dCBT or control (usual care or sleep hygiene education). Assessments were evaluated at baseline, post-intervention (week 8 or 10), and follow-up (week 22 or 24). Mediation was evaluated using structural equation models. RESULTS: dCBT for insomnia was superior to control at reducing both insomnia (Hedges' g range = 0.77-0.81; both p < 0.001) and anxiety symptoms (Hedges' g range = 0.39-0.44; both p < 0.001) at all time points. Baseline insomnia symptoms moderated the effects of dCBT on insomnia, however no variables moderated treatment effects on anxiety. Reductions in anxiety symptoms at follow-up were mediated by improvements in sleep at post-intervention (% mediated = 84 %), suggesting a causal pathway. LIMITATIONS: Participants did not have a formal anxiety disorder diagnosis and so the effects of dCBT for insomnia on anxiety may differ by anxiety disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing sleep using dCBT for insomnia may serve as a treatment target from which to improve anxiety in individuals with insomnia and clinically significant comorbid anxiety. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: Digital Insomnia therapy to Assist your Life as well as your Sleep (DIALS) - ISRCTN60530898 http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN60530898. Oxford Access for Students Improving Sleep (OASIS) - ISRCTN61272251 http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN61272251.

Surgical trial design for incorporating the effects of learning: what is the current methodological guidance, and is it sufficient?

BACKGROUND: Surgical interventions are complex. Key elements of this complexity are the surgeon and their learning curve. They pose methodological challenges in the design, analysis and interpretation of surgical RCTs. We identify, summarise, and critically examine current guidance about how to incorporate learning curves in the design and analysis of RCTs in surgery. EXAMINING CURRENT GUIDANCE: Current guidance presumes that randomisation must be between levels of just one treatment component, and that the evaluation of comparative effectiveness will be made via the average treatment effect (ATE). It considers how learning effects affect the ATE, and suggests solutions which seek to define the target population such that the ATE is a meaningful quantity to guide practice. We argue that these are solutions to a flawed formulation of the problem, and are inadequate for policymaking in this setting. REFORMULATING THE PROBLEM: The premise that surgical RCTs are limited to single-component comparisons, evaluated via the ATE, has skewed the methodological discussion. Forcing a multi-component intervention, such as surgery, into the framework of the conventional RCT design ignores its factorial nature. We briefly discuss the multiphase optimisation strategy (MOST), which for a Stage 3 trial would endorse a factorial design. This would provide a wealth of information to inform nuanced policy but would likely be infeasible in this setting. We discuss in more depth the benefits of targeting the ATE conditional on operating surgeon experience (CATE). The value of estimating the CATE for exploring learning effects has been previously recognised, but with discussion limited to analysis methods only. The robustness and precision of such analyses can be ensured via the trial design, and we argue that trial designs targeting CATE represent a clear gap in current guidance. CONCLUSION: Trial designs that facilitate robust, precise estimation of the CATE would allow for more nuanced policymaking, leading to patient benefit. No such designs are currently forthcoming. Further research in trial design to facilitate the estimation of the CATE is needed.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural and personalized exercise interventions for reducing fatigue in inflammatory rheumatic diseases.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural approach (CBA) or a personalized exercise programme (PEP), alongside usual care (UC), in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases who report chronic, moderate to severe fatigue. METHODS: A within-trial cost-utility analysis was conducted using individual patient data collected within a multicentre, three-arm randomized controlled trial over a 56-week period. The primary economic analysis was conducted from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty was explored using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Complete-case analysis showed that, compared with UC, both PEP and CBA were more expensive [adjusted mean cost difference: PEP £569 (95% CI: £464, £665); CBA £845 (95% CI: £717, £993)] and, in the case of PEP, significantly more effective [adjusted mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY) difference: PEP 0.043 (95% CI: 0.019, 0.068); CBA 0.001 (95% CI: -0.022, 0.022)]. These led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £13 159 for PEP vs UC, and £793 777 for CBA vs UC. Non-parametric bootstrapping showed that, at a threshold value of £20 000 per QALY gained, PEP had a probability of 88% of being cost-effective. In multiple imputation analysis, PEP was associated with significant incremental costs of £428 (95% CI: £324, £511) and a non-significant QALY gain of 0.016 (95% CI: -0.003, 0.035), leading to an ICER of £26 822 vs UC. The estimates from sensitivity analyses were consistent with these results. CONCLUSION: The addition of a PEP alongside UC is likely to provide a cost-effective use of health care resources.