A Precarious Path to Partnership? The Moderating Effects of Labour Market Regulations on the Relationship Between Unstable Employment and Union Formation in Europe.

Rising employment uncertainty featured by higher risks of being temporarily employed or unemployed is often seen as the driving force behind delayed and declined partnering in Western countries. However, such an employment-partnering relationship is contextualized by labour market institutions and thus could diverge across countries over time. This paper aims to investigate how country-level variations in labour market regulations moderate individual-level effects of unstable employment on union formation, including the transitions into marriage or cohabitation unions. Using comparative panel data for 26 countries from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (the years 2010-2019), our multilevel fixed effects models showed that temporary employment and unemployment negatively affected the probability of union formation for single women and men in Europe. Moreover, the negative relationship between unstable employment and union formation was reinforced when labour market reforms were stimulating insider-outsider segregations or decreasing welfare provisions. Specifically, stricter employment protection legislations and higher coverage rates of collective bargaining agreements could reinforce the negative effects of temporary employment and unemployment on union formation, while more generous provisions of unemployment benefits could buffer such negative effects.

Education and age trajectories of chronic conditions: Are tests of the cumulative advantage and disadvantage hypothesis biased by underreporting?

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impact of underreporting on tests of the cumulative advantage and disadvantage hypothesis (CAD), which predicts age-related increases in health disparities between individuals with higher and lower education. METHODS: Using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we identified underreporting by comparing self-reported hypertension and diabetes with biomedically measured hypertension (systolic blood pressure≥140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure≥90 mm Hg) and diabetes (fasting glucose level≥7 mmol/l and/or HbA1c≥6.5%). In a sample of 11,859 respondents aged 50 to 85 (54% women, 97% White), we assessed the associations between underreporting and the main analytic constructs in tests of the CAD (education, age, sex, and cohort). RESULTS: The results showed that self-reported measures underestimated the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes. Underreporting showed weak to moderate associations with the main constructs in tests of the CAD, being more pronounced in individuals with lower education, in older age, in more recent cohorts, and among men. When correcting for underreporting using biomedical measures, the overall prevalence of hypertension and diabetes increased substantially, but education differences in age trajectories of both conditions remained similar. CONCLUSIONS: Underreporting affected conclusions about the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes, but it did not affect conclusions about the CAD hypothesis for either condition.

The value conflict between freedom and security: Explaining the variation of COVID-19 policies in democracies and autocracies.

In the name of health security, individual freedoms were constrained in an unprecedented way in many countries, democratic or authoritarian, all over the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the constraints have not been consistent across countries, which motivates this paper to examine the relevance of value preferences towards freedom or security in the society for COVID-19 policies. Based on data for 40 democratic and authoritarian countries, the analyses show that the variation in the stringency of COVID-19 policies can be explained by value preferences of the population only in autocracies. In democracies, however, we do not find such a relationship. Governments in democratic political systems, we argue, are responsive to their constitutions and face prosecution by the judiciary if they violate the law or provisions of the constitution, limiting their capacity to implement strong COVID-19 policies. Nevertheless, their COVID-19 policies restricted citizens' freedoms and liberties, which means that these policies were rather not responsive to citizens' preferences for freedom, democratic rights and liberties. By highlighting how autocracies respond to their citizens' value preferences for security, this paper contributes to a better understanding of how autocracies might gain legitimacy in times of crises.

Examining the trade-offs between human fertility and longevity over three centuries using crowdsourced genealogy data.

The evolution theory of ageing predicts that reproduction comes with long-term costs of survival. However, empirical studies in human species report mixed findings of the relationship between fertility and longevity, which varies by populations, time periods, and individual characteristics. One explanation underscores that changes in survival conditions over historical periods can moderate the negative effect of human fertility on longevity. This study investigates the fertility-longevity relationship in Europe during a period of rapid modernisation (seventeenth to twentieth centuries) and emphasises the dynamics across generations. Using a crowdsourced genealogy dataset from the FamiLinx project, our sample consists of 81,924 women and 103,642 men born between 1601 and 1910 across 16 European countries. Results from multilevel analyses show that higher fertility has a significantly negative effect on longevity. For both women and men, the negative effects are stronger among the older cohorts and have reduced over time. Moreover, we find similar trends in the dynamic associations between fertility and longevity across four geographical regions in Europe. Findings and limitations of this study call for further investigations into the historical dynamics of multiple mechanisms behind the human evolution of ageing.

Family, Firms, and Fertility: A Study of Social Interaction Effects.

Research has indicated that fertility spreads through social networks and attributed this phenomenon to social interaction effects. It remains unclear, however, whether the findings of previous studies reflect the direct influence of network partners or contextual and selection factors, such as shared environment and common background characteristics. The present study uses instrumental variables to improve the identification of social interaction effects on fertility. Using data from the System of social statistical data sets (SSD) of Statistics Netherlands, we identify two networks-the network of colleagues at the workplace and the network of siblings in the family-to examine the influence of network partners on individual fertility decisions. Discrete-time event-history models with random effects provide evidence for social interaction effects, showing that colleagues' and siblings' fertility have direct consequences for an individual's fertility. Moreover, colleague effects are concentrated in female-female interactions, and women are more strongly influenced by their siblings, regardless of siblings' gender. These results are the first to demonstrate spillover effects across network boundaries, suggesting that fertility effects accumulate through social ties not only within but also across different domains of interaction.

Fertility and social interaction at the workplace: Does childbearing spread among colleagues?

This research investigates whether colleagues' fertility influences women's transitions to parenthood. We draw on Linked-Employer-Employee data (1993-2007) from the German Institute for Employment Research comprising 33,119 female co-workers in 6579 firms. Results from discrete-time hazard models reveal social interaction effects on fertility among women employed in the same firm. In the year after a colleague gave birth, transition rates to first pregnancy double. This effect declines over time and vanishes after two years. Further analyses suggest that the influence of colleagues' fertility is mediated by social learning.

Education and physical health trajectories in old age. Evidence from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).

OBJECTIVES: The model of cumulative inequality predicts that health differences between educational levels increase with age. Using a variety of analytical approaches and measures of health, studies have, however, reported increasing as well as decreasing and constant patterns of educational health inequality. The aim of this study is use a standardized research design to compare different dimensions of health inequality trajectories across educational levels. METHODS: We used data from two waves (2004/2005 and 2006/2007) of SHARE. The sample consisted of respondents aged 50-80 (n = 14,818). Using OLS regression models, we analyzed trajectories of health inequality in self-reported measures (ADL, IADL, mobility, chronic diseases, and self-rated health) as well as non-invasive objective measures (grip strength) of physical health. RESULTS: Inequality between higher and lower educated individuals increased significantly in limitations of physical functioning and grip strength. In chronic diseases and self-rated health, the gap between these two groups remained constant. CONCLUSION: Although our results mainly supported the model of cumulative inequality, they also showed that the trajectory of the education-health gradient is not uniform but varies across different dimensions of physical health.

The influence of offspring's sex and age at parents' divorce on the intergenerational transmission of divorce, Norwegian first marriages 1980-2003.

Whether a couple remain married or divorce has repeatedly been shown to be of importance for the marital stability of their children. This paper addresses the related question of whether the intergenerational transmission of divorce is contingent on the age at which parents divorced and the sex of the spouse who experienced the parents' divorce. Using a population-wide data-set on Norwegian first marriages followed from 1980 to 2003, we find that the intergenerational transmission hypothesis holds also for Norway, that this relationship is stronger for women than for men, and that there is a negative age gradient in the transmission effect for women. The experience of multiple family transitions, such as a parent's remarriage or a second divorce, does not affect couples' divorce risk.

Children's impact on the mental health of their older mothers and fathers: findings from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe.

The relation between social support and mental health has been thoroughly researched and structural characteristics of the social network have been widely recognised as being an important component of social support. The aim of this paper is to clarify the association between children and depressive mood states of their older parents. Based on international comparative data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe we analysed how the number of children, their proximity and the frequency of contact between older parents and their children are associated with the mental health of older people, using the EURO-D index. Our results indicate a positive association of children and depressive mood since childless men and women report more depressive symptoms. Moreover, few contacts with children were associated with an increased number of depressive symptoms. The family status was related to mental health as well: older men and women living with a spouse or partner had the lowest levels of depression. Interestingly, the presence of a spouse or partner was more relevant for the mental health of older people than the presence of, or contact with, their children.

Fertility and women's employment reconsidered: a macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000.

This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women's employment. This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time-series data from 1960 to 2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time-series techniques) we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid-1970s and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the institutional context, such as changes in childcare availability and attitudes towards working mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the employment of women.