Does sleep benefit source memory? Investigating 12-h retention intervals with a multinomial modeling approach.

For retention intervals of up to 12 h, the active systems consolidation hypothesis predicts that sleep compared to wakefulness strengthens the context binding of memories previously established during encoding. Sleep should thus improve source memory. By comparing retention intervals filled with natural night sleep versus daytime wakefulness, we tested this prediction in two online source-monitoring experiments using intentionally learned pictures as items and incidentally learned screen positions and frame colors as source dimensions. In Experiment 1, we examined source memory by varying the spatial position of pictures on the computer screen. Multinomial modeling analyses revealed a significant sleep benefit in source memory. In Experiment 2, we manipulated both the spatial position and the frame color of pictures orthogonally to investigate source memory for two different source dimensions at the same time, also allowing exploration of bound memory for both source dimensions. The sleep benefit on spatial source memory replicated. In contrast, no source memory sleep benefit was observed for either frame color or bound memory of both source dimensions, probably as a consequence of a floor effect in incidental encoding of color associations. In sum, the results of both experiments show that sleep within a 12-h retention interval improves source memory for spatial positions, supporting the prediction of the active systems consolidation hypothesis. However, additional research is required to clarify the impact of sleep on source memory for other context features and bound memories of multiple source dimensions.

Evaluating the robustness of parameter estimates in cognitive models: A meta-analytic review of multinomial processing tree models across the multiverse of estimation methods.

Researchers have become increasingly aware that data-analysis decisions affect results. Here, we examine this issue systematically for multinomial processing tree (MPT) models, a popular class of cognitive models for categorical data. Specifically, we examine the robustness of MPT model parameter estimates that arise from two important decisions: the level of data aggregation (complete-pooling, no-pooling, or partial-pooling) and the statistical framework (frequentist or Bayesian). These decisions span a multiverse of estimation methods. We synthesized the data from 13,956 participants (164 published data sets) with a meta-analytic strategy and analyzed the magnitude of divergence between estimation methods for the parameters of nine popular MPT models in psychology (e.g., process-dissociation, source monitoring). We further examined moderators as potential sources of divergence. We found that the absolute divergence between estimation methods was small on average (<.04; with MPT parameters ranging between 0 and 1); in some cases, however, divergence amounted to nearly the maximum possible range (.97). Divergence was partly explained by few moderators (e.g., the specific MPT model parameter, uncertainty in parameter estimation), but not by other plausible candidate moderators (e.g., parameter trade-offs, parameter correlations) or their interactions. Partial-pooling methods showed the smallest divergence within and across levels of pooling and thus seem to be an appropriate default method. Using MPT models as an example, we show how transparency and robustness can be increased in the field of cognitive modeling. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Survival processing occupies the central bottleneck of cognitive processing: A psychological refractory period analysis.

Words judged for relevance in a survival situation are remembered better than words judged for relevance in a nonsurvival context. This survival processing effect has been explained by selective tuning of human memory during evolution to process and retain information specifically relevant for survival. According to the richness-of-encoding hypothesis the survival processing effect arises from a domain-general mechanism-namely, a particularly rich and distinct form of encoding. This form of information processing is effortful and requires limited cognitive capacities. In our experiment, we used the well-established psychological refractory period framework in conjunction with the effect propagation logic to assess the role of central cognitive resources for the survival processing effect. Our data demonstrate that the survival memory advantage indeed relies on the capacity-limited central stage of cognitive processing. Thus, rating words in the context of a survival scenario involves central processing resources to a greater amount than rating words in a nonsurvival control condition. We discuss implications for theories of the survival processing effect.

How to develop, test, and extend multinomial processing tree models: A tutorial.

Many psychological theories assume that observable responses are determined by multiple latent processes. Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are a class of cognitive models for discrete responses that allow researchers to disentangle and measure such processes. Before applying MPT models to specific psychological theories, it is necessary to tailor a model to specific experimental designs. In this tutorial, we explain how to develop, fit, and test MPT models using the classical pair-clustering model as a running example. The first part covers the required data structures, model equations, identifiability, model validation, maximum-likelihood estimation, hypothesis tests, and power analyses using the software multiTree. The second part introduces hierarchical MPT modeling which allows researchers to account for individual differences and to estimate the correlations of latent processes among each other and with additional covariates using the TreeBUGS package in R. All examples including data and annotated analysis scripts are provided at the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/24pbm/). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Random Effects Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Maximum Likelihood Approach.

The present article proposes and evaluates marginal maximum likelihood (ML) estimation methods for hierarchical multinomial processing tree (MPT) models with random and fixed effects. We assume that an identifiable MPT model with S parameters holds for each participant. Of these S parameters, R parameters are assumed to vary randomly between participants, and the remaining [Formula: see text] parameters are assumed to be fixed. We also propose an extended version of the model that includes effects of covariates on MPT model parameters. Because the likelihood functions of both versions of the model are too complex to be tractable, we propose three numerical methods to approximate the integrals that occur in the likelihood function, namely, the Laplace approximation (LA), adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature (AGHQ), and Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) integration. We compare these three methods in a simulation study and show that AGHQ performs well in terms of both bias and coverage rate. QMC also performs well but the number of responses per participant must be sufficiently large. In contrast, LA fails quite often due to undefined standard errors. We also suggest ML-based methods to test the goodness of fit and to compare models taking model complexity into account. The article closes with an illustrative empirical application and an outlook on possible extensions and future applications of the proposed ML approach.

Hindsight bias for emotional faces.

People who learn the outcome to a situation or problem tend to overestimate what was known in the past-this is hindsight bias. Whereas previous research has revealed robust hindsight bias in the visual domain, little is known about how outcome information affects our memory of others' emotional expressions. The goal of the current work was to test whether participants exhibited hindsight bias for emotional faces and whether this varied as a function of emotion. Across five experiments, participants saw images of faces displaying different emotions. In the foresight phase, participants watched several emotional faces gradually clarify from blurry to clear. Once participants believed they knew what emotion the face was exhibiting, they identified the emotion from several options (e.g., angry, disgusted, happy, scared, surprised). In the hindsight phase, participants saw clear versions of each face before stopping the clarification at the point at which they previously identified the emotional expression. On average, participants exhibited hindsight bias for all emotions except happy faces (i.e., they indicated that they identified the emotional expressions at a blurrier point in hindsight than they had in foresight). A multinomial processing tree model of our data revealed that this was not due to participants' better recollection of foresight judgments for happy faces compared to the other emotions. Additionally, participants showed a smaller reconstruction bias for happy faces than the other emotions. We discuss the social implications of these findings as well as the potential for this paradigm to be used across cultures and ages. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The role of base-rate neglect in cyberchondria and health anxiety.

Cyberchondria is characterized by excessive health-related online search behavior associated with an unfounded escalation of concerns about common symptomatology. It often co-occurs with health anxiety. We investigated whether base-rate neglect-the cognitive bias to ignore a priori probabilities (e.g., of serious diseases)-plays a significant role in cyberchondria and health anxiety. 368 participants were randomly assigned to eight experimental conditions, manipulating the base-rate (30 % vs. 70 %), the judgment domain (health-neutral versus health-related), and the salience of base-rate information (low vs. high) in a 2×2×2 between-subjects design when asking them for probability judgments with versus without disease relevance. We found that high salience decreased base-rate neglect in participants with low, but not in those with elevated levels of either cyberchondria or health anxiety. Under low salience conditions, however, both cyberchondria and health anxiety severity were uncorrelated with base-rate neglect. These effects were independent of whether health-related or health-neutral problems were evaluated. Our findings suggest a domain-general probabilistic reasoning style that may play a causal role in the pathogenesis of cyberchondria and health anxiety.

Waldian t tests: Sequential Bayesian t tests with controlled error probabilities.

Bayesian t tests have become increasingly popular alternatives to null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in psychological research. In contrast to NHST, they allow for the quantification of evidence in favor of the null hypothesis and for optional stopping. A major drawback of Bayesian t tests, however, is that error probabilities of statistical decisions remain uncontrolled. Previous approaches in the literature to remedy this problem require time-consuming simulations to calibrate decision thresholds. In this article, we propose a sequential probability ratio test that combines Bayesian t tests with simple decision criteria developed by Abraham Wald in 1947. We discuss this sequential procedure, which we call Waldian t test, in the context of three recently proposed specifications of Bayesian t tests. Waldian t tests preserve the key idea of Bayesian t tests by assuming a distribution for the effect size under the alternative hypothesis. At the same time, they control expected frequentist error probabilities, with the nominal Type I and Type II error probabilities serving as upper bounds to the actual expected error rates under the specified statistical models. Thus, Waldian t tests are fully justified from both a Bayesian and a frequentist point of view. We highlight the relationship between Bayesian and frequentist error probabilities and critically discuss the implications of conventional stopping criteria for sequential Bayesian t tests. Finally, we provide a user-friendly web application that implements the proposed procedure for interested researchers. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Realistic context doesn't amplify the survival processing effect: Lessons learned from Covid-19 scenarios.

Imagining being stranded in the grasslands of an unknown territory without basic survival materials and subsequently rating the relevance of words for this situation leads to exceptionally good memory for these words. This survival processing effect has received much attention, primarily because it has been argued to disclose the evolutionary foundations of human memory. So far, only fictitious scenarios were used to demonstrate this effect. To provide a fairer test of emotional response against richness-of-encoding explanations of the effect, we aimed at increasing everyday relevance and realism of the survival scenarios. For this purpose, we created two new Covid-19 scenarios, one focusing on emotional response (Covid-19-emotion) and the other on survival strategy (Covid-19-strategy). Both new scenarios were compared to the classical grassland and moving scenarios typically used to investigate the survival processing effect. In Experiment 1, we observed better memory for the grassland and Covid-19-strategy scenarios compared to the other two, but no significant difference between the former. A descriptively similar result pattern emerged in Experiment 2 for the number of ideas generated on how to use objects in the four scenarios. Theoretical implications are discussed.

On the efficiency of the independent segments procedure: A direct comparison with sequential probability ratio tests.

In this comment, we report a simulation study that assesses error rates and average sample sizes required to reach a statistical decision for two sequential procedures, the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) originally proposed by Wald (1947) and the independent segments procedure (ISP) recently suggested by Miller and Ulrich (2020). Following Miller and Ulrich (2020), we use sequential one-tailed t tests as examples. In line with the optimal efficiency properties of the SPRT already proven by Wald and Wolfowitz (1948), the SPRT outperformed the ISP in terms of efficiency without compromising error probability control. The efficiency gain in terms of sample size reduction achieved with the SPRT t test relative to the ISP may be as high as 25%. We thus recommend the SPRT as a default sequential testing procedure especially for detecting small or medium hypothesized effect sizes under H1 whenever a priori knowledge of the maximum sample size is not crucial. If a priori control of the maximum sample size is mandatory, however, the ISP is a very useful addition to the sequential testing literature. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

How can I use it? The role of functional fixedness in the survival-processing paradigm.

After imagining being stranded in the grasslands of a foreign land without any basic survival material and rating objects with respect to their relevance in this situation, participants show superior memory performance for these objects compared to a control scenario. A possible mechanism responsible for this memory advantage is the richness and distinctiveness with which information is encoded in the survival-scenario condition. When confronted with the unusual task of thinking about how an object can be used in a life-threatening context, participants will most likely consider both common and uncommon (i.e., novel) functions of this object. These ideas about potential functions may later serve as powerful retrieval cues that boost memory performance. We argue that objects differ in their potential to be used as novel, creative survival tools. Some objects may be low in functional fixedness, meaning that it is possible to use them in many different ways. Other objects, in contrast, may be high in functional fixedness, meaning that the possibilities to use them in non-standard ways is limited. We tested experimentally whether functional fixedness of objects moderates the strength of the survival-processing advantage compared to a moving control scenario. As predicted, we observed an interaction of the functional fixedness level with scenario type: The survival-processing memory advantage was more pronounced for objects low in functional fixedness compared to those high in functional fixedness. These results are in line with the richness-of-encoding explanation of the survival-processing advantage.

The sleep benefit in episodic memory: An integrative review and a meta-analysis.

People recall more information after sleep than after an equally long period of wakefulness. This sleep benefit in episodic memory has been documented in almost a century of research. However, an integrative review of hypothesized underlying processes, a comprehensive quantification of the benefit, and a systematic investigation of potential moderators has been missing so far. Here, we address these issues by analyzing 823 effect sizes from 271 independent samples that were reported in 177 articles published between 1967 and 2019. Using multilevel metaregressions with robust variance estimates, we found a moderate overall sleep benefit in episodic memory (g = 0.44). Moderator analyses revealed four important findings: First, the sleep benefit is larger when stimuli are studied multiple times instead of just once. Second, for word materials, the effect size depends on the retrieval procedure: It is largest in free recall, followed by cued recall and recognition tasks. Third, the sleep benefit is stronger in pre-post difference measures of retention than in delayed memory tests. Fourth, sleep benefits are larger for natural sleep and nighttime naps than for alternative sleep study designs (e.g., slow-wave sleep; SWS-deprived sleep, daytime naps). Although there was no obvious evidence for selective reporting, it is a potential threat to the validity of the results. When accounting for selective reporting bias, the overall effect of sleep on episodic memory is reduced but still significant (g = 0.28). We argue that our results support an integrative, multicausal theoretical account of sleep-induced episodic memory benefits and provide guidance to increase their replicability. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Adaptive Memory: Independent Effects of Survival Processing and Reward Motivation on Memory.

Humans preferentially remember information processed for their survival relevance, a memorial benefit known as the survival processing effect. Memory is also biased towards information associated with the prospect of reward. Given the adaptiveness of these effects, they may depend on similar mechanisms. We tested whether motivation drives both effects, with reward incentives that are known to boost extrinsic motivation and survival processing perhaps stimulating intrinsic motivation. Accordingly, we manipulated survival processing and reward incentive independently during an incidental-encoding task in which participants chose between pairs of words concerning their relevance for a scenario, and examined the effects on encoding event-related potentials (ERP) activity and later performance on a surprise recall test. We hypothesized that if survival processing fosters intrinsic motivation, it should reduce the beneficial effects of extrinsic motivation (reward incentive). In contrast to this prediction, we found that reward incentive and survival processing independently improved memory and that the P300, a measure of lower-level cognitive resource allocation, was increased by reward incentive independent of survival processing. Further, survival processing and reward incentive independently increased the frontal slow wave (FSW), a measure of higher-level elaboration. These findings suggest that while survival processing and reward incentive may both increase encoding elaboration, the memory-enhancing effect of survival processing does not depend on increased intrinsic motivation. Additionally, we replicated a recent finding whereby the survival processing effect generalizes to a choice-based encoding task and further showed that the beneficial effect of choice on memory likely does not interact with either survival processing or reward.

Survival processing modulates the neurocognitive mechanisms of episodic encoding.

Memories formed in the context of an imagined survival scenario are more easily remembered, but the mechanisms underlying this effect are still under debate. We investigated the neurocognitive processes underlying the survival processing effect by examining event-related potentials (ERPs) during memory encoding. Participants imagined being either stranded in a foreign land and needing to survive, or in an overseas moving (control) scenario, while incidentally encoding a list of words. Words encountered in the survival context were associated with improved recall and reduced false-memory intrusions during a later memory test. Survival processing was associated with an increased frontal slow wave, while there was no effect on the overall P300 amplitude, relative to the control scenario. Furthermore, a subsequent memory effect in the P300 time window was found only in the control scenario. These findings suggest that survival processing leads to a shift away from lower level encoding processes, which are sensitive to motivation and stimulus salience and which were evident in the control scenario, to more active and elaborative forms of encoding. The results are consistent with a richness of encoding account of the survival processing effect and offer novel insights into the encoding processes that lead to enhanced memory for fitness-relevant information.

Benefits of response time-extended multinomial processing tree models: A reply to Starns (2018).

In his comment on Heck and Erdfelder (2016, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 23, 1440-1465), Starns (2018, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 2406-2416) focuses on the response time-extended two-high-threshold (2HT-RT) model for yes-no recognition tasks, a specific example for the general class of response time-extended multinomial processing tree models (MPT-RTs) we proposed. He argues that the 2HT-RT model cannot accommodate the speed-accuracy trade-off, a key mechanism in speeded recognition tasks. As a remedy, he proposes a specific discrete-state model for recognition memory that assumes a race mechanism for detection and guessing. In this reply, we clarify our motivation for using the 2HT-RT model as an example and highlight the importance and benefits of MPT-RTs as a flexible class of general-purpose, simple-to-use models. By binning RTs into discrete categories, the MPT-RT approach facilitates the joint modeling of discrete responses and response times in a variety of psychological paradigms. In fact, many paradigms either lack a clear-cut accuracy criterion or show performance levels at ceiling, making corrections for incautious responding redundant. Moreover, we show that some forms of speed-accuracy trade-off can in fact not only be accommodated but also be measured by appropriately designed MPT-RTs.

Controlling decision errors with minimal costs: The sequential probability ratio t test.

For several years, the public debate in psychological science has been dominated by what is referred to as the reproducibility crisis. This crisis has, inter alia, drawn attention to the need for proper control of statistical decision errors in testing psychological hypotheses. However, conventional methods of error probability control often require fairly large samples. Sequential statistical tests provide an attractive alternative: They can be applied repeatedly during the sampling process and terminate whenever there is sufficient evidence in the data for one of the hypotheses of interest. Thus, sequential tests may substantially reduce the required sample size without compromising predefined error probabilities. Herein, we discuss the most efficient sequential design, the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), and show how it is easily implemented for a 2-sample t test using standard statistical software. We demonstrate, by means of simulations, that the SPRT not only reliably controls error probabilities but also typically requires substantially smaller samples than standard t tests and other common sequential designs. Moreover, we investigate the robustness of the SPRT against violations of its assumptions. Finally, we illustrate the sequential t test by applying it to an empirical example and provide recommendations on how psychologists can employ it in their own research to benefit from its desirable properties. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Testing Interactions in Multinomial Processing Tree Models.

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models allow testing hypotheses on latent psychological processes that underlie human behavior. However, past applications of this model class have mainly been restricted to the analysis of main effects. In this paper, we adopt the interaction concept as defined in log-linear models and show why it is appropriate for MPT models. We then explain how to implement and test ordinal and disordinal two-way interaction hypotheses in MPT models. We also show how our method generalizes to higher-order interactions involving three or more factors. An empirical example from source memory and aging demonstrates the applicability of this method and allows for directly testing the associative deficit theory that age differences are larger in associative (e.g., source) memory as opposed to item memory. Throughout the paper, we explain how most analytic steps can be easily implemented in the freely available software multiTree.

Bald and Bad?

According to (a) the beauty ideal of a full head of hair and (b) the physical attractiveness stereotype (PAS; "what is beautiful is good"), bald men should appear less attractive than nonbald men, not only physically but also socially. To explain inconsistent results on this prediction in previous research, we suggest two antagonistic processes: the automatic activation of the PAS at the implicit level and its suppression at the explicit level, the latter process selectively triggered by individuating information about the target person. In line with this account, we only found negative social attractiveness ratings for bald men by same-aged women when individuating target information was lacking (Experiment 1). In contrast, irrespective of whether individuating information was available or not, we reliably found evidence for the PAS in different implicit paradigms (the implicit association test in Experiment 2 and a source monitoring task in Experiment 3). We conclude that individuating information about bald men suppresses PAS application, but not PAS activation.

On the role of retrieval processes in the survival processing effect: Evidence from ROC and ERP analyses.

Memory is enhanced for words encoded in the context of an imagined survival scenario, an effect modulated by word imageability or concreteness. However, the mechanisms underlying this "survival processing effect" are still controversial. To address this issue, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the recognition retrieval processes associated with words previously encoded in either a survival or a control scenario. More specifically, we investigated how recollection- and familiarity-based retrieval are influenced by survival processing of high- and low-imageability words. Participants incidentally encoded words and then completed a surprise recognition test while their EEG was recorded. The encoding of concrete, high-imageability words in a survival context lead to improved recognition memory compared to the control context, and this improvement was associated with an increase in both the ROC and ERP measures of recollection-based memory retrieval. Survival processing was also associated with an increase in the ERP familiarity signal for these words, but the ROC analysis indicated that recognition judgments relied upon recollection rather than familiarity. These findings provide evidence that survival processing increases elaboration during encoding, leading to greater recollection at retrieval and, in turn, enhanced memory.