Comparison of nonparametric estimators of the expected number of recurrent events.

We compare the performance of nonparametric estimators for the mean number of recurrent events and provide a systematic overview for different recurrent event settings. The mean number of recurrent events is an easily interpreted marginal feature often used for treatment comparisons in clinical trials. Incomplete observations, dependencies between successive events, terminating events acting as competing risk, or gaps between at risk periods complicate the estimation. We use survival multistate models to represent different complex recurrent event situations, profiting from recent advances in nonparametric estimation for non-Markov multistate models, and explain several estimators by using multistate intensity processes, including the common Nelson-Aalen-type estimators with and without competing mortality. In addition to building on estimation of state occupation probabilities in non-Markov models, we consider a simple extension of the Nelson-Aalen estimator by allowing for dependence on the number of prior recurrent events. We pay particular attention to the assumptions required for the censoring mechanism, one issue being that some settings require the censoring process to be entirely unrelated while others allow for state-dependent or event-driven censoring. We conducted extensive simulation studies to compare the estimators in various complex situations with recurrent events. Our practical example deals with recurrent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations in a clinical study, which will also be used to illustrate two-sample-inference using resampling.

Persistent Patent Vertical Vein After Repair of Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Connection (TAPVR): A Rare Cause of Hypoxemia Post-Fontan Procedure.

Vertical vein (VV) ligation during total anomalous pulmonary venous return (TAPVR) repair is controversial. While some surgeons prefer ligation of the VV to prevent adverse sequelae of shunting across it and to promote flow through the newly created anastomosis, others leave it to serve as a "pop off valve" to the left heart structures, which are believed to be hypoplastic and noncompliant, presumably contributing to a more favorable post-operative outcome. We report two patients post-Fontan procedure, who underwent cardiac catheterization to explore the etiology of hypoxia and were found to have a persistent VV responsible for right to left shunting. Both patients underwent closure of the VV with improvement in the cyanosis and clinical course. These cases provide evidence supporting surgical ligation of the VV at the time of TAPVR repair, especially in patients with single ventricle.

Inflammatory cytokines and depression symptoms following hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Increased synthesis and release of inflammatory signalling proteins is common among individuals with hematologic malignancies undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) due to intensive conditioning regimens and complications such as graft-versus-host-disease and infections. Prior research indicates that inflammatory responses can activate central nervous system pathways that evoke changes in mood. This study examined relationships between markers of inflammatory activity and depression symptoms following HCT. Individuals undergoing allogeneic (n = 84) and autologous (n = 155) HCT completed measures of depression symptoms pre-HCT and 1, 3, and 6 months post-HCT. Proinflammatory (IL-6, TNF-α) and regulatory (IL-10) cytokines were assessed by ELISA in peripheral blood plasma. Mixed-effects linear regression models indicated that patients with elevated IL-6 and IL-10 reported more severe depression symptoms at the post-HCT assessments. These findings were replicated when examining both allogeneic and autologous samples. Follow-up analyses clarified that relationships were strongest for neurovegetative, rather than cognitive or affective, symptoms of depression. These findings suggest that anti-inflammatory therapeutics targeting an inflammatory mediator of depression could improve quality of life of HCT recipients.

A connection between survival multistate models and causal inference for external treatment interruptions.

Recently, treatment interruptions such as a clinical hold in randomized clinical trials have been investigated by using a multistate model approach. The phase III clinical trial START (Stimulating Targeted Antigenic Response To non-small-cell cancer) with primary endpoint overall survival was temporarily placed on hold for enrollment and treatment by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Multistate models provide a flexible framework to account for treatment interruptions induced by a time-dependent external covariate. Extending previous work, we propose a censoring and a filtering approach both aimed at estimating the initial treatment effect on overall survival in the hypothetical situation of no clinical hold. A special focus is on creating a link to causal inference. We show that calculating the matrix of transition probabilities in the multistate model after application of censoring (or filtering) yields the desired causal interpretation. Assumptions in support of the identification of a causal effect by censoring (or filtering) are discussed. Thus, we provide the basis to apply causal censoring (or filtering) in more general settings such as the COVID-19 pandemic. A simulation study demonstrates that both causal censoring and filtering perform favorably compared to a naïve method ignoring the external impact.

Pulmonary artery and lung parenchymal growth following early versus delayed stent interventions in a swine pulmonary artery stenosis model.

OBJECTIVES: Compare lung parenchymal and pulmonary artery (PA) growth and hemodynamics following early and delayed PA stent interventions for treatment of unilateral branch PA stenosis (PAS) in swine. BACKGROUND: How the pulmonary circulation remodels in response to different durations of hypoperfusion and how much growth and function can be recovered with catheter directed interventions at differing time periods of lung development is not understood. METHODS: A total of 18 swine were assigned to four groups: Sham (n = 4), untreated left PAS (LPAS) (n = 4), early intervention (EI) (n = 5), and delayed intervention (DI) (n = 5). EI had left pulmonary artery (LPA) stenting at 5 weeks (6 kg) with redilation at 10 weeks. DI had stenting at 10 weeks. All underwent right heart catheterization, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and histology at 20 weeks (55 kg). RESULTS: EI decreased the extent of histologic changes in the left lung as DI had marked alveolar septal and bronchovascular abnormalities (p = .05 and p < .05 vs. sham) that were less prevalent in EI. EI also increased left lung volumes and alveolar counts compared to DI. EI and DI equally restored LPA pulsatility, R heart pressures, and distal LPA growth. EI and DI improved, but did not normalize LPA stenosis diameter (LPA/DAo ratio: Sham 1.27 ± 0.11 mm/mm, DI 0.88 ± 0.10 mm/mm, EI 1.01 ± 0.09 mm/mm) and pulmonary blood flow distributions (LPA-flow%: Sham 52 ± 5%, LPAS 7 ± 2%, DI 44 ± 3%, EI 40 ± 2%). CONCLUSION: In this surgically created PAS model, EI was associated with improved lung parenchymal development compared to DI. Longer durations of L lung hypoperfusion did not detrimentally affect PA growth and R heart hemodynamics. Functional and anatomical discrepancies persist despite successful stent interventions that warrant additional investigation.