Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan.

Background: The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England was launched by the Department of Health in 2011 to prevent avoidable harm to health by cold weather by enabling individuals to prepare and respond appropriately. This study sought the views of local decision makers involved in the implementation of the CWP in the winter of 2012/13 to establish the effects of the CWP on local planning. It was part of a multi-component independent evaluation of the CWP. Methods: Ten LA areas were purposively sampled which varied in level of deprivation and urbanism. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were held with health and social care managers involved in local planning between November 2012 and May 2013. Results: Thematic analysis revealed that the CWP was considered a useful framework to formalize working arrangements between agencies though local leadership varied across localities. There were difficulties in engaging general practitioners, differences in defining vulnerable individuals and a lack of performance monitoring mechanisms. Conclusions: The CWP was welcomed by local health and social care managers, and improved proactive winter preparedness. Areas for improvement include better integration with general practice, and targeting resources at socially isolated individuals in cold homes with specific interventions aimed at reducing social isolation and building community resilience.

Public health vulnerability to wintertime weather: time-series regression and episode analyses of national mortality and morbidity databases to inform the Cold Weather Plan for England.

OBJECTIVES: To inform development of Public Health England's Cold Weather Plan (CWP) by characterizing pre-existing relationships between wintertime weather and mortality and morbidity outcomes, and identification of groups most at risk. STUDY DESIGN: Time-series regression analysis and episode analysis of daily mortality, emergency hospital admissions, and accident and emergency visits for each region of England. METHODS: Seasonally-adjusted Poisson regression models estimating the percent change in daily health events per 1 °C fall in temperature or during individual episodes of extreme weather. RESULTS: Adverse cold effects were observed in all regions, with the North East, North West and London having the greatest risk of cold-related mortality. Nationally, there was a 3.44% (95% CI: 3.01, 3.87) increase in all-cause deaths and 0.78% (95% CI: 0.53, 1.04) increase in all-cause emergency admissions for every 1 °C drop in temperature below identified thresholds. The very elderly and people with COPD were most at risk from low temperatures. A&E visits for fractures were elevated during heavy snowfall periods, with adults (16-64 years) being the most sensitive age-group. Since even moderately cold days are associated with adverse health effects, by far the greatest health burdens of cold weather fell outside of the alert periods currently used in the CWP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that levels 0 ('year round planning') and 1 ('winter preparedness and action') are crucial components of the CWP in comparison to the alerts. Those most vulnerable during winter may vary depending on the type of weather conditions being experienced. Recommendations are made for the CWP.

Evaluation of the cold weather plan for England: modelling of cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England is likely to prove cost-effective in order to inform the development of the CWP in the short term before direct data on costs and benefits can be collected. STUDY DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study undertaken in the absence of direct epidemiological evidence on the effect of the CWP in reducing cold-related mortality and morbidity, and limited data or on its costs. METHODS: The model comprised a simulated temperature time series based on historical data; epidemiologically-derived relationships between temperature, and mortality and morbidity; and information on baseline unit costs of contacts with health care and community care services. Cost-effectiveness was assessed assuming varying levels of protection against cold-related burdens, coverage of the vulnerable population and willingness-to-pay criteria. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the CWP is likely to be cost effective under some scenarios at the high end of the willingness to pay threshold used by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England, but these results are sensitive to assumptions about the extent of implementation of the CWP at local level, and its assumed effectiveness when implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied from £29,754 to £75,875 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. Conventional cost-effectiveness (<£30,000/QALY) was reached only when effective targeting of at-risk groups was assumed (i.e. need for low coverage (∼5%) of the population for targeted actions) and relatively high assumed effectiveness (>15%) in avoiding deaths and hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the modelling relied on a large number of assumptions, this type of modelling is useful for understanding whether, and in what circumstances, untested plans are likely to be cost-effective before they are implemented and in the early period of implementation before direct data on cost-effectiveness have accrued. Steps can then be taken to optimize the relevant parameters as far as practicable during the early implementation period.

Attitudes and first heterosexual experiences among Indians and Pakistanis in Britain: evidence from a national probability survey.

We compare attitudes, experiences of learning about sex and first intercourse among Indians (n = 393) and Pakistanis (n = 365) using a probability survey of Britain's general population aged 16-44 years conducted during 1999-2001 (n = 12,110). Higher proportions of Pakistanis (64.6%) and Indians (28.1%) reported religion as 'very important' versus 6.2% of other ethnicities. Pakistanis were more conservative in their attitudes, e.g. reporting premarital sex as wrong (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] for sociodemographic differences, 4.71 [men] and 6.59 [women]). Pakistanis were more likely to be married at first sex (AORs 6.2 [men] and 9.53 [women]), yet men were more likely than women to be in non-marital relationships at this time (69.4% versus 25.2%). Pakistani men and women and Indian women were more likely to report not using reliable contraception at first sex relative to others (AORs 2.33, 3.16 and 1.90, respectively). Pakistani and Indian women were more likely than others to report school lessons as their main source of sex education (AORs 2.23 and 1.77) and not discussing sex with their parents during adolescence (AORs 2.04 and 2.62). These unique data have implications for ensuring that sex and relationship education and health promotion messages are appropriately planned, targeted and delivered to benefit Pakistanis and Indians.

Sex partner acquisition while overseas: results from a British national probability survey.

BACKGROUND: Over the past 20 years, there has been a huge increase in the number of overseas trips made by UK residents. Although a number of studies have examined the frequency of overseas partner acquisition, they have used convenience samples and thus are not generalisable to the British general population. METHODS: A national probability sample survey was carried out in 1999-2001 of 12,110 men and women aged 16-44 years resident in Britain. Sociodemographic, health-related, travel, sexual behaviour and attitudinal data were collected by computer-assisted interviewing. The main outcomes were the proportion of British residents who reported new sexual partners overseas in the past 5 years, the country of origin of these new sex partners, and the association between reporting a new partner while overseas with a range of demographic, behavioural and attitudinal variables. RESULTS: 13.9% of men and 7.1% of women reported having new sexual partner(s) while overseas in the past 5 years. Among respondents who were aged 16-24 and never married, the proportions were significantly higher (23.0% of men and 17.0% of women). Half of those with new sex partners overseas reported their partner's origin as the UK, and over a third as another European country. In addition to age and marital status, reporting new partners overseas was associated with a higher number of partners, paying for sex (among men), reporting a diagnosis of sexually transmitted infection, and HIV testing. Adjustment for sociodemographic factors attenuated the magnitude of, but did not remove, these associations. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial minority of young, unmarried people form new sexual partnerships abroad, but these are typically with residents from the UK or other European countries. Those who have new partners abroad are likely to have higher-risk sexual lifestyles more generally, and to be at higher risk of sexually transmitted infections. Greater attention should be paid to sexual health promotion for travellers abroad, especially young travellers, emphasising the risks of new sexual relationships with compatriots as well as those from other countries in terms of STI/HIV acquisition and onwards transmission.

A comparison of the population diagnosed with chlamydia in primary care with that diagnosed in sexual health clinics: implications for a national screening programme.

OBJECTIVES: To compare demographic, behavioural and HIV testing characteristics of individuals diagnosed with chlamydia infection in primary care with those in genitourinary medicine clinics, in the absence of a screening programme. The aim was to explore the current and potential contribution of primary care to the control of chlamydia. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analysed data on individuals who reported one or more chlamydia diagnoses in the past 5 years in a large probability sample survey of the resident, UK general population aged 16-44 years. Estimates were weighted and odds ratios calculated. RESULTS: Women diagnosed in primary care reported fewer sexual partners, and were less likely to have had an HIV test in the past 5 years than their counterparts diagnosed in genitourinary medicine clinics. Age, ethnicity, social class, educational attainment and urbanization of area of residence did not differ between the two groups. Too few men were diagnosed in primary care to allow for such a comparison. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care already diagnoses a large number of women with chlamydia infection, who may perceive themselves as low risk through age or sexual behaviour, yet are likely to comprise a substantial proportion of all infections. Few men are diagnosed in primary care. These groups need to be strategically targeted in the context of a future chlamydia screening programme, which will focus on the screening of younger women at high risk, and in which the role of primary care is still in development.

Who pays for sex? An analysis of the increasing prevalence of female commercial sex contacts among men in Britain.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STI) and risky sexual behaviours is increasing. The role of commercial sex in this trend is poorly understood. Little is known about the men who pay for sex. We examined the epidemiology of female commercial sex contacts reported by men in 1990 and 2000. METHODS: National probability sample surveys of sexual attitudes and lifestyles (Natsal) of men aged 16-44 resident in Britain in 1990 (n = 6000) and 2000 (n = 4762). RESULTS: The proportion of men who reported paying women for sex in the previous 5 years increased from 2.0% (95% CI 1.6 to 2.5) in 1990 to 4.2% in 2000 (95% CI 3.6 to 4.9). In both surveys, paying for sex was more frequent in men aged between 25 years and 34 years, who were never or previously married, and who lived in London. There was no association with ethnicity, social class, homosexual contact, or injecting drug use. Men who paid for sex were more likely to report 10 or more sexual partners in the previous 5 years; only a minority of their lifetime sexual partners (19.3%) were commercial. They were more likely to meet partners abroad and to report previous STI. Only 15% reported having had an HIV test. CONCLUSION: The proportion of men who reported paying for heterosexual sex has increased, and these men have multiple commercial and non-commercial partners. Their higher rates of STI and low level of HIV testing suggest the need for prevention interventions for clients as well as sex workers.

Factors associated with HIV testing among black Africans in Britain.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the factors associated with HIV testing among heterosexual black Africans aged 16-44 years living in Britain. DESIGN: We analysed data from the second British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000)-a stratified national probability sample survey conducted between 1999-2001. Data from Natsal's main and ethnic minority boost (EMB) samples were analysed. Multivariate analysis was performed using complex survey functions to account for the clustered, stratified, and differential selection probabilities inherent within the survey. RESULTS: A total of 385 (216 women and 169 men) black African respondents were included in the study. 44.0% women and 36.4% men reported ever having had an HIV test. In univariate analysis, HIV testing was associated with being born abroad (OR 3.63), having a new partner(s) from abroad in past 5 years (OR 2.88), and attending a GUM clinic (OR 3.27) among men; and educational attainment (OR 3.50), perception of "not very much" personal risk of HIV (OR 2.75), and attending a GUM clinic (OR 2.91) among women. After adjusting for potential confounders, an increased likelihood of HIV testing was associated with being in the United Kingdom less than 5 years relative to being UK born (adjusted OR 9.49), and ever attending a GUM clinic (adj OR 5.53), for men; and educational attainment (adj OR 4.13), and low perception of HIV risk (adj OR 2.77) for women. CONCLUSIONS: Black Africans appear to have relatively high rates of HIV testing reflecting, at least partially, awareness of risk behaviours and potential exposure to HIV. Nevertheless, there remains substantial potential for health gain and innovative approaches are required to further increase timely HIV testing.

Who reports sexual function problems? Empirical evidence from Britain's 2000 National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles.

OBJECTIVE: To identify sociodemographic, sexual, and health behavioural and attitudinal factors associated with reporting sexual function problems. METHODS: A probability sample survey of 11 161 men and women aged 16-44 years resident in Britain in 2000. Data collected by a combination of computer assisted face to face and self interviewing. Outcomes were self report of a range of sexual function problems, considered as "any problems" (1+ lasting 1+ months in the past year) and "persistent problems" (1+ lasting 6+ months in the past year), and associations with sociodemographic, behavioural, and attitudinal variables. RESULTS: Both "any" and "persistent" sexual function problems were more commonly reported by women than men. A variety of sociodemographic factors were associated with both measures but differed by gender. For example, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for reporting any problems for married v single respondents was 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57 to 0.87) v 1.31 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.56) for men and women, respectively. Sexual behaviours significantly associated with reporting sexual function problems included competence at first sex, paying for sex in the past 5 years, number of occasions of sex and masturbation, both in the past 4 weeks. For men (only), reporting STI diagnosis(es) was significantly associated with reporting "any" problems (AOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.4 to 3.2) and "persistent" problems (AOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.9). Both measures were significantly more likely among men and women who reported communication difficulties with their partners, with AORs in excess of 1.9. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual fulfilment is an important part of sexual health. Understanding factors associated with reporting sexual problems, and recognising that such factors maybe partnership specific, is an important step towards improving our understanding of sexual function and thus improving the provision of care and support available.

The accuracy of reported sensitive sexual behaviour in Britain: exploring the extent of change 1990-2000.

OBJECTIVES: The 1990-1 British national probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles (Natsal 1990) was repeated in 1999-2001 (Natsal 2000) to update population estimates of risk behaviours, and assess change over time. We examine whether changes in prevalence estimates may partly result from changes in measurement accuracy. METHODS: Taking Natsal 2000 (11 161 respondents) and Natsal 1990 (13 765 respondents aged 16-44) we compared the response rate, sample representativeness, reporting of abortion last year (relative to official statistics), and selected attitudes. Among the common birth cohort eligible for both surveys (aged 16-34 Natsal 1990, 26-44 Natsal 2000), we compared reporting of experiences before 1990. RESULTS: The response rate (66.8% Natsal 1990, 65.4% Natsal 2000) and completeness of reporting abortion were unchanged (84% Natsal 1990, 86% Natsal 2000). Attitudes were significantly changed in Natsal 2000 relative to Natsal 1990--for example, increased tolerance of male homosexual sex, OR (95% CI) 2.10 (1.93-2.29) men and 2.95 (2.74 to 3.18) women. In the common birth cohort reporting of heterosexual intercourse before 16 (OR 1.15 (1.02 to 1.29) men, 1.49 (1.31 to 1.69) women), and homosexual experience (OR 1.80 (1.46 to 2.21) men, 2.00 (1.61 to 2.48) women) were significantly increased. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with improved reporting accuracy for some sensitive behaviours in Natsal 2000, in line with greater social tolerance and improved survey methodology. However, the evidence is not conclusive, and may not be generalisable to all such behaviours. The increase found in the reported prevalence of STI risk behaviours between Natsal 1990 and Natsal 2000 is likely to be somewhat overstated.

Sexual behaviour in Britain: partnerships, practices, and HIV risk behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Sexual behaviour is a major determinant of sexual and reproductive health. We did a National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000) in 1999-2001 to provide population estimates of behaviour patterns and to compare them with estimates from 1990-91 (Natsal 1990). METHODS: We did a probability sample survey of men and women aged 16-44 years who were resident in Britain, using computer-assisted interviews. Results were compared with data from respondents in Natsal 1990. FINDINGS: We interviewed 11161 respondents (4762 men, 6399 women). Patterns of heterosexual and homosexual partnership varied substantially by age, residence in Greater London, and marital status. In the past 5 years, mean numbers of heterosexual partners were 3.8 (SD 8.2) for men, and 2.4 (SD 4.6) for women; 2.6% (95% CI 2.2-3.1) of both men and women reported homosexual partnerships; and 4.3% (95% CI 3.7-5.0) of men reported paying for sex. In the past year, mean number of new partners varied from 2.04 (SD 8.4) for single men aged 25-34 years to 0.05 (SD 0.3) for married women aged 35-44 years. Prevalence of many reported behaviours had risen compared with data from Natsal 1990. Benefits of greater condom use were offset by increases in reported partners. Changes between surveys were generally greater for women than men and for respondents outside London. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides updated estimates of sexual behaviour patterns. The increased reporting of risky sexual behaviours is consistent with changing cohabitation patterns and rising incidence of sexually transmitted infections. Observed differences between Natsal 1990 and Natsal 2000 are likely to result from a combination of true change and greater willingness to report sensitive behaviours in Natsal 2000 due to improved survey methodology and more tolerant social attitudes.

Sexual behaviour in Britain: early heterosexual experience.

BACKGROUND: Relatively high rates of teenage conception and sexually transmitted infection among young people in Britain have focused attention on early sexual behaviour and its determinants. We report the results of the second National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal 2000). METHODS: We did a probability sample survey between 1999 and 2001, of men and women aged 16-44 years in Britain. Participants were interviewed using a combination of computer-assisted face-to-face and self-completion questionnaires, and asked questions regarding first heterosexual intercourse, communication about sex, pregnancy, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). FINDINGS: We recruited 11161 men and women to the survey (4762 men, 6399 women). The proportion of those aged 16-19 years at interview reporting first heterosexual intercourse at younger than 16 years was 30% for men and 26% for women; median age was 16 years. The proportion of women reporting first intercourse before 16 years increased up to, but not after, the mid-1990s. There has been a sustained increase in condom use and a decline in the proportion of men and women reporting no contraceptive use at first intercourse with decreasing age at interview. Among 16-24 year olds, non-use of contraception increased with declining age at first intercourse; reported by 18% of men and 22% of women aged 13-14 years at occurrence. Early age at first intercourse was significantly associated with pregnancy under 18 years, but not with occurrence of STIs. Low educational attainment was associated with motherhood before 18 years, but not abortion. INTERPRETATION: The increase in the proportion of women reporting first intercourse before age 16 years does not appear to have continued throughout the past decade. Only a small minority of teenagers have unprotected first intercourse, and early motherhood is more strongly associated with educational level than with family background. Factors most strongly associated with risk behaviour and adverse outcomes have considerable potential for preventive intervention.

Sexual behaviour in Britain: reported sexually transmitted infections and prevalent genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

BACKGROUND: Studies of the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STI) are largely based on surveillance data. As part of a national survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles (Natsal 2000) in Britain, we estimated the frequency of self-reported STIs, and the prevalence of urinary Chlamydia trachomatis infection. METHODS: We did a stratified probability sample survey of 11161 men and women aged 16-44 years in Britain. Computer assisted self-interviews contained items on the nature and timing of previously diagnosed STIs. Half of all sexually experienced respondents aged 18-44 years were invited to provide a urine sample for ligase chain reaction testing for C trachomatis infection. FINDINGS: 10.8% of men and 12.6% of women reported ever having an STI, 3.6% of men and 4.1% of women reported ever being diagnosed with genital warts, and 1.4% of men and 3.1% of women reported previous infection with C trachomatis. 76% of men and 57% of women ever diagnosed with an STI had been to a GUM clinic. C trachomatis was found in 2.2% (95% CI 1.5-3.2) of men and 1.5% (95% CI 1.11-2.14) of women with age-specific prevalence being highest among men aged 25-34 (3.1%) and women aged 16-24 years (3.0%). Non-married status, age, and reporting partner concurrency or two or more sexual partners in the past year were independently associated with infection with C trachomatis. INTERPRETATION: We show substantial heterogeneity in distribution of reported STIs, and the demographic and behavioural determinants of prevalent genital chlamydial infection. The results have potentially wide application for proposed chlamydia screening programmes which, given the demonstrated prevalence, must now proactively seek to involve men.

Measuring the built environment: validity of a site survey instrument for use in urban settings.

There are few reliable measures of place with which to study the effects of socio-economic context on health. We report on the development and inter-rater reliability of a 27-item observer-rated built environment site survey checklist (BESSC). Across eleven 'housing areas' (defined as areas of homogeneity in housing form) and two raters, kappa coefficients were > or =0.5 for fifteen categorical items, and intra-class correlation coefficients exceeded 0.6 for a further three continuous measures. Ratings on several BESSC items were associated to a statistically significant degree with the prevalence of depression and residents' dissatisfaction with 'their area as a place to live'. BESSC items may prove to be valuable descriptors of the urban built environment in future studies.

The acceptability of urinary LCR testing for Chlamydia trachomatis among participants in a probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the factors that influence respondents' willingness to participate in urinary testing for Chlamydia trachomatis in a general population feasibility survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles. METHODS: 199 sexually experienced, 18-44 year old participants, recruited as part of a larger (n=901) methodological study of sexual attitudes and lifestyles, were invited to provide a urine sample for chlamydial infection testing using ligase chain reaction (LCR) techniques. Analysis of the survey data and in-depth qualitative interviews were undertaken to explore the factors that influenced participants' decisions to participate. RESULTS: 143/199 (72%) participants agreed to provide a urine sample. The likelihood of providing a urine sample was reduced if other individuals were present in the home at the time of interview (OR 0.42, 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.90, p=0.03). Trust and rapport with the interviewer, understanding the aims of the test, sense of obligation, and perceived importance of the test were identified as additional influencing factors in the in-depth interviews. CONCLUSIONS: Survey respondents' uncertainty or embarrassment at participating in urine testing can be overcome if they are well informed, motivated by the potential health gain, and briefed by trained and confident interviewers.

Effect of computer-assisted self-interviews on reporting of sexual HIV risk behaviours in a general population sample: a methodological experiment.

OBJECTIVES: To develop methods to maximize the accuracy of reporting HIV risk behaviours in a general population survey. We assessed the feasibility of using a computer-assisted self-completion interview (CASI) in comparison with pen-and-paper self-completion interview (PAPI). DESIGN: A probability sample survey of residents aged 16-44 years in Britain, with alternate assignment of addresses to interview by CASI (462) or PAPI (439). METHODS: Personal interviews exploring demographic and sexual behaviour variables. Principal outcome measures were the impact of CASI in relation to PAPI on data quality and rates of reporting a range of behaviours. RESULTS: A total of 901 interviews were completed; 829 individuals were eligible for and accepted the self-completion module. Internal consistency of data items was greater with CASI than PAPI and item non-response was lower. Overall, there was no significant difference in rates of reporting between CASI and PAPI. The main effect for CASI compared with PAPI in a generalized estimating equation (GEE) analysis was an OR (95% CI) of 1.04 (0.92-1.17). Variables were also examined individually, including homosexual partnership (adjusted OR 1.26 95%, CI 0.69-2.29), payment for sex (adjusted OR 0.68 95% CI 0.29-1.59), masturbation (adjusted OR 0.89 95% CI 0.66 1.22) and five or more partners in the past 5 years (OR 0.85 95% CI 0.61 -1.19). CONCLUSION: We found no evidence of a consistent effect of CASI on rates of reporting sexual HIV risk behaviours in this sample. CASI resulted in improvement in internal consistency and a reduction in missed questions.