Real-life comparison of mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at risk for clinical progression treated with molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir during the Omicron era in Italy: a nationwide, cohort study.

Background: Comparative data on mortality in COVID-19 patients treated with molnupiravir or with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir are inconclusive. We therefore compared all-cause mortality in community-dwelling COVID-19 patients treated with these drugs during the Omicron era. Methods: Data collected in the nationwide, population-based, cohort of patients registered in the database of the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) were used. To increase completeness of the recorded deaths and date correctness, a cross-check with the National Death Registry provided by the Ministry of the Interior was performed. We included in this study all patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 treated within 5 days after the test date and symptom onset between February 8 and April 30, 2022. All-cause mortalities by day 28 were compared between the two treatment groups after balancing for baseline characteristics using weights obtained from a gradient boosting machine algorithm. Findings: In the considered timeframe, 17,977 patients treated with molnupiravir and 11,576 patients with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir were included in the analysis. Most patients (25,617/29,553 = 86.7%) received a full vaccine course including the booster dose. A higher crude incidence rate of all-cause mortality was found among molnupiravir users (51.83 per 100,000 person-days), compared to nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir users (22.29 per 100,000 person-days). However, molnupiravir-treated patients were older than those treated with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir and differences between the two populations were found as far as types of co-morbidities were concerned. For this reason, we compared the weight-adjusted cumulative incidences using the Aalen estimator and found that the adjusted cumulative incidence rates were 1.23% (95% CI 1.07%-1.38%) for molnupiravir-treated and 0.78% (95% CI 0.58%-0.98%) for nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir-treated patients (adjusted log rank p = 0.0002). Moreover, the weight-adjusted mixed-effect Cox model including Italian regions and NHS centers as random effects and treatment as the only covariate confirmed a significant reduced risk of death in patients treated with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir. Lastly, a significant reduction in the risk of death associated with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir was confirmed in patient subgroups, such as in females, fully vaccinated patients, those treated within day 2 since symptom onset and patients without (haemato)-oncological diseases. Interpretation: Early initiation of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir was associated for the first time with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality by day 28 compared to molnupiravir, both in the overall population and in patient subgroups, including those fully vaccinated with the booster dose. Funding: This study did not receive funding.

Population Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Analysis of Dalbavancin for Long-Term Treatment of Subacute and/or Chronic Infectious Diseases: The Major Role of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring.

A population pharmacokinetic analysis of dalbavancin was conducted in patients with different infection sites. Non-linear mixed effect modeling was used for pharmacokinetic analysis and covariate evaluation. Monte Carlo simulations assessed the probability of target attainment (PTA) of total dalbavancin concentration ≥ 8.04 mg/L over time (associated with ≥90% probability of optimal pharmacodynamic target attainment of fAUC24h/MIC > 111.1 against S. aureus) associated with a single or double dosage, one week apart, of 1000 or 1500 mg in patients with different classes of renal function. Sixty-nine patients with 289 concentrations were included. Most of them (53/69, 76.8%) had bone and joint infections. A two-compartment model adequately fitted dalbavancin concentration−time data. Creatinine clearance (CLCR) was the only covariate associated with dalbavancin clearance. Monte Carlo simulations showed that, in patients with severe renal dysfunction, the 1000 mg single or double one week apart dosage may ensure optimal PTAs of 2 and 5 weeks, respectively. In patients with preserved renal function, the 1500 mg single or double one-week apart dosage may ensure optimal PTAs of 2 and 4 to 6 weeks, respectively. Therapeutic drug monitoring should be considered mandatory for managing inter-individual variability and for supporting clinicians in long-term treatments of subacute and chronic infections.

Modeling cost-effectiveness and health gains of a "universal" versus "prioritized" hepatitis C virus treatment policy in a real-life cohort.

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two alternative direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment policies in a real-life cohort of hepatitis C virus-infected patients: policy 1, "universal," treat all patients, regardless of fibrosis stage; policy 2, treat only "prioritized" patients, delay treatment of the remaining patients until reaching stage F3. A liver disease progression Markov model, which used a lifetime horizon and health care system perspective, was applied to the PITER cohort (representative of Italian hepatitis C virus-infected patients in care). Specifically, 8,125 patients naive to DAA treatment, without clinical, sociodemographic, or insurance restrictions, were used to evaluate the policies' cost-effectiveness. The patients' age and fibrosis stage, assumed DAA treatment cost of €15,000/patient, and the Italian liver disease costs were used to evaluate quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of policy 1 versus policy 2. To generalize the results, a European scenario analysis was performed, resampling the study population, using the mean European country-specific health states costs and mean treatment cost of €30,000. For the Italian base-case analysis, the cost-effective ICER obtained using policy 1 was €8,775/QALY. ICERs remained cost-effective in 94%-97% of the 10,000 probabilistic simulations. For the European treatment scenario the ICER obtained using policy 1 was €19,541.75/QALY. ICER was sensitive to variations in DAA costs, in the utility value of patients in fibrosis stages F0-F3 post-sustained virological response, and in the transition probabilities from F0 to F3. The ICERs decrease with decreasing DAA prices, becoming cost-saving for the base price (€15,000) discounts of at least 75% applied in patients with F0-F2 fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Extending hepatitis C virus treatment to patients in any fibrosis stage improves health outcomes and is cost-effective; cost-effectiveness significantly increases when lowering treatment prices in early fibrosis stages. (Hepatology 2017;66:1814-1825).

Genotype-specific mutations in the polymerase gene of hepatitis B virus potentially associated with resistance to oral antiviral therapy.

The evolution of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and the role of different variants during antiviral therapy may be influenced by HBV genotype. We have therefore analysed substitutions potentially related to nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) resistance at 42 positions within RT-region in a cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis B in relation to HBV-genotype. RT mutations analysis was performed by direct sequencing in 200 NAs-naïve patients and in 64 LAM or LAM+ADV experienced patients with NAs resistance, infected mainly by HBV-genotypes D and A. 27 polymorphic-sites were identified among the 42 positions analysed and 64 novel mutations were detected in 23 positions. Genotype-D displayed the highest mutation frequency (6.4%) among all HBV-genotypes analysed. Single or multiple mutations were detected in 80% of naïve patients. Overall, the most frequent single mutations were at residues rt54, rt53 and rt91 which may associate with significantly lower HBV-DNA levels (p=0.001). Comparison with sequencing data of patients failing LMV or LAM+ADV therapy revealed an higher frequency of novel genotype-specific mutations if compared with naïve patients: 3 mutations under LAM monotherapy in HBV-D (rtS85F; rtL91I; rtC256G) and 3 mutations under ADV therapy in HBV-A (rtI53V; rtW153R; rtF221Y). In HBV-D treated patients the dominant resistance mutation was rtL80V (31.4%) and rtM204I (60%) in LAM+ADV group while LAM-treated patients showed a preference of rtM204V (51.9%). Interestingly, none of HBV-A patients had mutation rtM204I under ADV add-on treatment but all of them had the "V" AA substitution. These results suggested that in patients with CHB, HBV-genotype might be relevant in the evolution and development of drug resistance showing also different mutation patterns in the YMDD motif between HBV genotype D and A.