Processes affecting Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) infestation and abundance: inference through statistical modeling and risk maps in northern Argentina.

Understanding the processes that affect Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) may serve as a starting point to create and/or improve vector control strategies. For this purpose, we performed statistical modeling of three entomological surveys conducted in Clorinda City, northern Argentina. Previous 'basic' models of presence or absence of larvae and/or pupae (infestation) and the number of pupae in infested containers (productivity), mainly based on physical characteristics of containers, were expanded to include variables selected a priori reflecting water use practices, vector-related context factors, the history of chemical control, and climate. Model selection was performed using Akaike's Information Criterion. In total, 5,431 water-holding containers were inspected and 12,369 Ae. aegypti pupae collected from 963 positive containers. Large tanks were the most productive container type. Variables reflecting every putative process considered, except for history of chemical control, were selected in the best models obtained for infestation and productivity. The associations found were very strong, particularly in the case of infestation. Water use practices and vector-related context factors were the most important ones, as evidenced by their impact on Akaike's Information Criterion scores of the infestation model. Risk maps based on empirical data and model predictions showed a heterogeneous distribution of entomological risk. An integrated vector control strategy is recommended, aiming at community participation for healthier water use practices and targeting large tanks for key elements such as lid status, water addition frequency and water use.

Patterns of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) infestation and container productivity measured using pupal and Stegomyia indices in northern Argentina.

A citywide control program of Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) mainly based on the use of larvicides reduced infestations but failed to achieve the desired target levels in Clorinda, northeastern Argentina, over 5 yr of interventions. To understand the underlying causes of persistent infestations and to develop new control tactics adapted to the local context, we conducted two pupal surveys in a large neighborhood with approximately 2,500 houses and recorded several variables for every container inspected in fall and spring 2007. In total, 4,076 lots and 4,267 containers were inspected over both surveys, and 8,391 Ae. aegypti pupae were collected. Large tanks used for potable water storage were the most abundant and the most productive type of container, accounting for 65-84% of all the pupae collected. Therefore, large tanks were key containers and candidates for improved targeted interventions. Multivariate analysis showed that containers located in the yard, at low sun exposure, unlidded, filled with rain water, and holding polluted water were all more likely to be infested by larvae or pupae. When only infested containers were considered, productivity of pupae was most closely associated with large tanks and rain water. A stochastic simulation model was developed to calculate the expected correlations between pupal and Stegomyia indices according to the characteristics of the distribution of larvae and pupae per container and the spatial scale at which the indices were computed. The correlation between pupal and Stegomyia indices is expected to increase as infestation levels decline.