PANDAA intentionally violates conventional qPCR design to enable durable, mismatch-agnostic detection of highly polymorphic pathogens.

Sensitive and reproducible diagnostics are fundamental to containing the spread of existing and emerging pathogens. Despite the reliance of clinical virology on qPCR, technical challenges persist that compromise their reliability for sustainable epidemic containment as sequence instability in probe-binding regions produces false-negative results. We systematically violated canonical qPCR design principles to develop a Pan-Degenerate Amplification and Adaptation (PANDAA), a point mutation assay that mitigates the impact of sequence variation on probe-based qPCR performance. Using HIV-1 as a model system, we optimized and validated PANDAA to detect HIV drug resistance mutations (DRMs). Ultra-degenerate primers with 3' termini overlapping the probe-binding site adapt the target through site-directed mutagenesis during qPCR to replace DRM-proximal sequence variation. PANDAA-quantified DRMs present at frequency ≥5% (2 h from nucleic acid to result) with a sensitivity and specificity of 96.9% and 97.5%, respectively. PANDAA is an innovative advancement with applicability to any pathogen where target-proximal genetic variability hinders diagnostic development.

Detection of Inducible Replication-Competent HIV-1 Subtype C Provirus Despite Long-Term Antiretroviral Treatment in Perinatally Infected Adolescents in Botswana.

Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively suppresses HIV replication, the latent reservoir remains the barrier to HIV eradication. It remains unknown whether long-term ART impacts levels of inducible replication-competent provirus. To address this knowledge gap, we assessed the proviral reservoir in HIV-1 perinatally infected adolescents having received ART for >13 years. We recruited 15 vertically infected adolescents living with HIV in Botswana. Historical viral load, CD4+ T cell count, and treatment data were retrieved from their outpatient medical records. Inducible replication-competent proviruses from cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells were quantified using a TZM-bl based assay (TZA). Total proviral DNA copies were quantified using droplet digital PCR. The mean age of study participants was 16 years (standard deviation = 0.7) and median CD4+ T cell count at enrollment was 784 [interquartile range (IQR) = 728.8-1,288] cells/mm3. Median age at ART initiation was 8 (IQR = 6-12) months. Fourteen (93%) participants had HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/mL at the time of enrollment in the study. A median of 19 (IQR = 18-27) HIV-1 RNA measurements were available per participant. Six (40%) participants displayed viral suppression at all clinic visits since initiating ART, whereas the remaining 9 (60%) had one or more clinic visits with detectable HIV-1 RNA. The median inducible replication-competent provirus count was 7.4 infectious units per million cells (IQR = 6.7-19.2), and did not differ significantly by either complete or incomplete viral suppression (7.2 vs. 7.4, p = .86), or by age at ART initiation (7.4 if <12 months, 11.2 if >12 months, p = .85). The median total HIV DNA count was 129.1 copies per million cells (IQR = 18.9-212.3). Our data suggest that long-term ART initiated within the 1st year in perinatally infected infants did not eliminate proviral DNA or inducible replication-competent proviruses.

Implementation of Universal HIV Testing and Treatment to Reduce HIV Incidence in Botswana: the Ya Tsie Study.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) can dramatically reduce the risk of HIV transmission, but the feasibility of scaling up HIV testing, linkage and treatment to very high population levels, and its impact on population HIV incidence, were unknown. We review key findings from a community-randomized trial in which we evaluated the impact of "universal test and treat" (UTT) on population HIV incidence in Botswana, a resource-constrained country with both high HIV prevalence and high ART coverage before study inception. RECENT FINDINGS: We conducted a community-randomized trial (the "Ya Tsie" trial or Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP)) in 30 villages in Botswana from 2013 to 2018, with the goal of determining whether a combination of prevention interventions-with a focus on universal HIV testing and treatment-would reduce population-level HIV incidence. The intervention included universal HIV testing (home-based and mobile), active linkage to HIV care and treatment with patient tracing for persons not linking, universal ART coverage, rapid ART start (at the first clinic visit), and enhanced male circumcision services. Botswana had very high HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression levels (approaching the UNAIDS "90-90-90" targets) prior to intervention roll-out. By study end, we were able to exceed the overall 95-95-95 coverage target of 86%: an estimated 88% of all persons living with HIV were on ART and had viral suppression in the Ya Tsie intervention arm. In addition, annual HIV incidence was 30% lower in the intervention arm as compared with the control arm over a 29-month follow-up period. With universal HIV testing and relatively simple linkage activities, it was possible to achieve one of the highest reported population levels of HIV diagnosis, linkage to care, and viral suppression globally and to reduce population HIV incidence by about one-third over a short period of time (< 3 years). We were able to significantly increase population viral suppression and to decrease HIV incidence even in a resource-constrained setting with pre-existing very high testing and treatment coverage. Universal community-based HIV testing and tracing of individuals through the HIV care cascade were key intervention components.

Mapping of HIV-1C Transmission Networks Reveals Extensive Spread of Viral Lineages Across Villages in Botswana Treatment-as-Prevention Trial.

BACKGROUND: Phylogenetic mapping of HIV-1 lineages circulating across defined geographical locations is promising for better understanding HIV transmission networks to design optimal prevention interventions. METHODS: We obtained near full-length HIV-1 genome sequences from people living with HIV (PLWH), including participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, conducted in 30 Botswana communities in 2013-2018. Phylogenetic relationships among viral sequences were estimated by maximum likelihood. RESULTS: We obtained 6078 near full-length HIV-1C genome sequences from 6075 PLWH. We identified 984 phylogenetically distinct HIV-1 lineages (molecular HIV clusters) circulating in Botswana by mid-2018, with 2-27 members per cluster. Of these, dyads accounted for 62%, approximately 32% (n = 316) were found in single communities, and 68% (n = 668) were spread across multiple communities. Men in clusters were approximately 3 years older than women (median age 42 years, vs 39 years; P < .0001). In 65% of clusters, men were older than women, while in 35% of clusters women were older than men. The majority of identified viral lineages were spread across multiple communities. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of circulating phylogenetically distinct HIV-1C lineages (molecular HIV clusters) suggests highly diversified HIV transmission networks across Botswana communities by 2018.

Undetectable proviral deoxyribonucleic acid in an adolescent perinatally infected with human immunodeficiency virus-1C and on long-term antiretroviral therapy resulted in viral rebound following antiretroviral therapy termination: A case report with implications for clinical care.

RATIONALE: Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to long-term viral suppression, reduces proviral reservoir size, and prolongs time to rebound. Since human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a lifelong disease, diagnostic monitoring after confirmed infection is typically not performed; therefore, little is known about the impact of early initiation and long-term ART on the sensitivity of assays that detect HIV antibodies and viral nucleic acid in children and adolescents. PATIENT CONCERNS: Here we report 1 case of diagnosed and confirmed perinatal HIV-1C infection with longstanding viral suppression, who subsequently had a negative HIV-1 deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) test, undetectable antibodies to HIV-1, and high CD4+ T cell count after 14 years of ART. DIAGNOSIS: The patient was diagnosed with HIV in 2002 at 1 and 2 months of age using DNA polymerase chain reaction. At 8 months old, his viral load was 1210 HIV ribonucleic acid (RNA) copies/mL and CD4 T cell count was 3768 cells/mm. INTERVENTION: At the age of 9 months, highly active antiretroviral therapy comprising of zidovudine, nevirapine, and lamivudine was initiated. The patient remained on this treatment for 14 years 11 months and was virally suppressed. OUTCOMES: At the age of 14 years 4 months, the participant decided to visit a local voluntary HIV testing center, where a rapid HIV test came out negative and the viral load was undetectable (<400 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL). These results led to termination of ART which led to viral rebound within 9 months. LESSONS: As more people with early HIV infection initiate early ART in the context of "Test and Treat all" recommendations, aspects of this report may become more commonplace, with both clinical and public health implications. If the possibility of functional cure (or false-positive diagnosis) is being considered, decisions to terminate ART should be made cautiously and with expert guidance, and may benefit from highly sensitive quantification of the proviral reservoir.

Reaching 90-90-90 in Botswana.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Botswana, a small country in southern Africa, has had a very high prevalence of HIV since about 1995. It seems important to analyze the response of this country to help us understand how it became one of the first nations to achieve the 90-90-90 targets. RECENT FINDINGS: Botswana began a national program for treatment of HIV/AIDS with ARVs in 2002. Initially established in the four largest population centers, it expanded to more than 30 sites throughout the country by 2004. Also in 2004, an 'opt out' system for HIV testing was introduced. The government-sponsored ARV regimen for initiation was ZDV/3TC/EFV until 2008, then TDF/FTC/EFV until 2016, when it became TDF/FTC/DTG along with the introduction of treatment for all. Levels of both acquired and transmitted drug resistance have been low. In late 2013, we began the Ya Tsie or Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCCP), a cluster randomized trial for 100 000 exurban and rural adults in 30 villages that included enhanced testing, linkage to care, and ARV treatment for 15 intervention villages, one in each pair. A 20% baseline survey in 2013-2015 revealed 29% prevalence and values that were already close to 90-90-90. With 83.3% of HIV-positive adults knowing they were infected, 87.4% of those knowing they were infected already on ARV, and 96.5% of those on ARV in complete viral suppression, this represented a combined value of 70.2% toward the target of 73%. By best estimates, incidence fell by about 30% over the 29-month period of the trial, which is compatible with Botswana reaching a 90% reduction in incidence in 10 years as proposed by the UNAIDS model. On the basis of an end-of-study survey in three intervention villages, we estimate that Botswana could reach 95-95-95 by 2019. SUMMARY: These results illustrate that it is possible to reach 90-90-90 in countries with very high HIV prevalence.

Universal Testing, Expanded Treatment, and Incidence of HIV Infection in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios. Pair-stratified Cox models were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Of 12,610 enrollees (81% of eligible household members), 29% were HIV-positive. Of the 8974 HIV-negative persons (4487 per group), 95% were retested for HIV infection over a median of 29 months. A total of 57 participants in the intervention group and 90 participants in the standard-care group acquired HIV infection (annualized HIV incidence, 0.59% and 0.92%, respectively). The unadjusted HIV incidence ratio in the intervention group as compared with the standard-care group was 0.69 (P = 0.09) by permutation test (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.90 by pair-stratified Cox model). An end-of-trial survey in six communities (three per group) showed a significantly greater increase in the percentage of HIV-positive participants with an HIV-1 RNA level of 400 copies per milliliter or less in the intervention group (18 percentage points, from 70% to 88%) than in the standard-care group (8 percentage points, from 75% to 83%) (relative risk, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.16). The percentage of men who underwent circumcision increased by 10 percentage points in the intervention group and 2 percentage points in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Expanded HIV testing, linkage to care, and ART coverage were associated with increased population viral suppression. (Funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; Ya Tsie ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01965470.).

Neural-Tube Defects and Antiretroviral Treatment Regimens in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: A preliminary safety signal for neural-tube defects was previously reported in association with dolutegravir exposure from the time of conception, which has affected choices of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of reproductive potential. The signal can now be evaluated with data from follow-up of additional pregnancies. METHODS: We conducted birth-outcomes surveillance at hospitals throughout Botswana, expanding from 8 to 18 sites in 2018. Trained midwives performed surface examinations of all live-born and stillborn infants. Research assistants photographed abnormalities after maternal consent was obtained. The prevalence of neural-tube defects and major external structural defects according to maternal HIV infection and ART exposure status was determined. In the primary analyses, we used the Newcombe method to evaluate differences in prevalence with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: From August 2014 through March 2019, surveillance captured 119,477 deliveries; 119,033 (99.6%) had an infant surface examination that could be evaluated, and 98 neural-tube defects were identified (0.08% of deliveries). Among 1683 deliveries in which the mother was taking dolutegravir at conception, 5 neural-tube defects were found (0.30% of deliveries); the defects included two instances of myelomeningocele, one of anencephaly, one of encephalocele, and one of iniencephaly. In comparison, 15 neural-tube defects were found among 14,792 deliveries (0.10%) in which the mother was taking any non-dolutegravir ART at conception, 3 among 7959 (0.04%) in which the mother was taking efavirenz at conception, 1 among 3840 (0.03%) in which the mother started dolutegravir treatment during pregnancy, and 70 among 89,372 (0.08%) in HIV-uninfected mothers. The prevalence of neural-tube defects was higher in association with dolutegravir treatment at conception than with non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.20 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01 to 0.59) or with other types of ART exposure. Major external structural defects were found in 0.95% of deliveries among women exposed to dolutegravir at conception and 0.68% of those among women exposed to non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.27 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of neural-tube defects was slightly higher in association with dolutegravir exposure at conception than with other types of ART exposure at conception (3 per 1000 deliveries vs. 1 per 1000 deliveries). (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Lack of Virological Suppression Among Young HIV-Positive Adults in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 RNA load is the best biological predictor of HIV transmission and treatment response. The rate of virologic suppression among key subpopulations can guide HIV prevention programs. METHODS: The Botswana Combination Prevention Project performed a population-based household survey among adults in 30 communities in Botswana. Data collected included knowledge of HIV-positive status, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, and virologic suppression (HIV-1 RNA ≤400 copies per milliliter). Individuals aged 16-29 years were considered young adults. RESULTS: Among 552 young people living with HIV enrolled with RNA load data and ART status available, 51% (n = 279) had undetectable HIV-1 RNA, including 54% of young women and 32% of young men [sex prevalence ratio (PR): 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.43 to 0.80; P < 0.001]. Compared with older adults (30-64 years old), young HIV-infected adults were significantly less likely to have undetectable HIV-1 RNA (PR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.70; P < 0.0001), including both men (PR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.56; P < 0.0001) and women (PR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.62 to 0.74; P < 0.0001). Among a subset of people living with HIV receiving ART, young adults also were less likely to have undetectable HIV-1 RNA load than older adults (PR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.90 to 0.95; P = <0.0001). Analysis of the care continuum revealed that inferior HIV diagnosis and suboptimal linkage to care are the primary reasons for low virologic suppression among young adults. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults in Botswana are significantly less likely to have undetectable HIV-1 RNA load compared with older adults. In the era of broad scale-up of ART, interventions able to diagnose young adults living with HIV and link them to effective therapy are urgently needed.

High HIV-1 RNA Among Newly Diagnosed People in Botswana.

HIV-1 RNA level is strongly associated with HIV transmission risk. We sought to determine whether HIV-1 RNA level was associated with prior knowledge of HIV status among treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals in Botswana, a country with high rates of antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage. This information may be helpful in targeting HIV diagnosis and treatment efforts in similar high HIV prevalence settings in a population-based survey. HIV-infected individuals were identified during a household survey performed in 30 communities across Botswana. ART-naive persons with detectable HIV-1 RNA (>400 copies/mL) were divided into two groups, newly diagnosed and individuals tested in the past who knew about their HIV infection at the time of household visit, but had not taken ART. Levels of HIV-1 RNA were compared between groups, overall and by age and gender. Among 815 HIV-infected ART-naive persons with detectable virus, newly diagnosed individuals had higher levels of HIV-1 RNA (n = 490, median HIV-1 RNA 4.35, interquartile range (IQR) 3.79-4.91 log10 copies/mL) than those who knew about their HIV-positive status (n = 325, median HIV-1 RNA 4.10, IQR 3.55-4.68 log10 copies/mL; p values <.001, but p value = .011 after adjusting for age and gender). A nonsignificant trend for higher HIV-1 RNA was found among newly diagnosed men 30 years of age or older (median HIV-1 RNA 4.58, IQR 4.07-5.02 log10 copies/mL vs. 4.17, 3.61-4.71 log10 copies/mL). Newly diagnosed individuals have elevated levels of HIV-1 RNA. This study highlights the need for early diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection for purposes of HIV epidemic control, even in a setting with high ART coverage.

HIV-1 full-genome phylogenetics of generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: impact of missing nucleotide characters in next-generation sequences.

To characterize HIV-1 transmission dynamics in regions where the burden of HIV-1 is greatest, the 'Phylogenetics and Networks for Generalised HIV Epidemics in Africa' consortium (PANGEA-HIV) is sequencing full-genome viral isolates from across sub-Saharan Africa. We report the first 3,985 PANGEA-HIV consensus sequences from four cohort sites (Rakai Community Cohort Study, n=2,833; MRC/UVRI Uganda, n=701; Mochudi Prevention Project, n=359; Africa Health Research Institute Resistance Cohort, n=92). Next-generation sequencing success rates varied: more than 80% of the viral genome from the gag to the nef genes could be determined for all sequences from South Africa, 75% of sequences from Mochudi, 60% of sequences from MRC/UVRI Uganda, and 22% of sequences from Rakai. Partial sequencing failure was primarily associated with low viral load, increased for amplicons closer to the 3' end of the genome, was not associated with subtype diversity except HIV-1 subtype D, and remained significantly associated with sampling location after controlling for other factors. We assessed the impact of the missing data patterns in PANGEA-HIV sequences on phylogeny reconstruction in simulations. We found a threshold in terms of taxon sampling below which the patchy distribution of missing characters in next-generation sequences has an excess negative impact on the accuracy of HIV-1 phylogeny reconstruction, which is attributable to tree reconstruction artifacts that accumulate when branches in viral trees are long. The large number of PANGEA-HIV sequences provides unprecedented opportunities for evaluating HIV-1 transmission dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and identifying prevention opportunities. Molecular epidemiological analyses of these data must proceed cautiously because sequence sampling remains below the identified threshold and a considerable negative impact of missing characters on phylogeny reconstruction is expected.

Genome-Wide Analyses Reveal Gene Influence on HIV Disease Progression and HIV-1C Acquisition in Southern Africa.

Sub-Saharan Africans infected with HIV-1C make up the largest AIDS patient population in the world and exhibit large heterogeneity in disease progression before initiating antiretroviral therapy. To identify host variants associated with HIV disease progression, we performed genome-wide association studies on a total of 556 treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals in Botswana. We characterized the pattern of HIV disease progression using a novel functional principal component analysis, which can better capture longitudinal CD4 and viral load (VL) trajectories. Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near HCG22 (chr6, peak variant rs2535307, combined p = 3.72 × 10-7, minor allele as risky allele) and CCNG1 (chr5, peak variant kgp22385164, combined p = 1.88 × 10-6, minor allele as risky allele) were significantly associated with CD4 and VL dynamics. Inspection of SNPs in these gene regions in a third Botswana cohort (using GWATCH) also revealed a strong association of HCG22 with HIV-1C acquisition, suggesting that this region is associated with infection as well as disease progression. Our study uncovered two genetic regions that are significant and have specific effects on HIV-1C acquisition or progression in sub-Saharan Africans, and the result suggested new potential targets for AIDS prevention and treatment. In addition, our results also indicate the possibility of using genetic markers as HIV disease progression indicators in sub-Saharan Africans to prioritize fast progressors for antiretroviral treatment.

Deciphering Multiplicity of HIV-1C Infection: Transmission of Closely Related Multiple Viral Lineages.

BACKGROUND: A single viral variant is transmitted in the majority of HIV infections. However, about 20% of heterosexually transmitted HIV infections are caused by multiple viral variants. Detection of transmitted HIV variants is not trivial, as it involves analysis of multiple viral sequences representing intra-host HIV-1 quasispecies. METHODOLOGY: We distinguish two types of multiple virus transmission in HIV infection: (1) HIV transmission from the same source, and (2) transmission from different sources. Viral sequences representing intra-host quasispecies in a longitudinally sampled cohort of 42 individuals with primary HIV-1C infection in Botswana were generated by single-genome amplification and sequencing and spanned the V1C5 region of HIV-1C env gp120. The Maximum Likelihood phylogeny and distribution of pairwise raw distances were assessed at each sampling time point (n = 217; 42 patients; median 5 (IQR: 4-6) time points per patient, range 2-12 time points per patient). RESULTS: Transmission of multiple viral variants from the same source (likely from the partner with established HIV infection) was found in 9 out of 42 individuals (21%; 95 CI 10-37%). HIV super-infection was identified in 2 patients (5%; 95% CI 1-17%) with an estimated rate of 3.9 per 100 person-years. Transmission of multiple viruses combined with HIV super-infection at a later time point was observed in one individual. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple HIV lineages transmitted from the same source produce a monophyletic clade in the inferred phylogenetic tree. Such a clade has transiently distinct sub-clusters in the early stage of HIV infection, and follows a predictable evolutionary pathway. Over time, the gap between initially distinct viral lineages fills in and initially distinct sub-clusters converge. Identification of cases with transmission of multiple viral lineages from the same source needs to be taken into account in cross-sectional estimation of HIV recency in epidemiological and population studies.

Transmitted/Founder HIV-1 Subtype C Viruses Show Distinctive Signature Patterns in Vif, Vpr, and Vpu That Are Under Subsequent Immune Pressure During Early Infection.

Viral variants that predominate during early infection may exhibit constrained diversity compared with those found during chronic infection and could contain amino acid signature patterns that may enhance transmission, establish productive infection, and influence early events that modulate the infection course. We compared amino acid distributions in 17 patients recently infected with HIV-1C with patients with chronic infection. We found significantly lower entropy in inferred transmitted/founder (t/f) compared with chronic viruses and identified signature patterns in Vif and Vpr from inferred t/f viruses. We investigated sequence evolution longitudinally up to 500 days postseroconversion and compared the impact of selected substitutions on predicted human leukocyte antigen (HLA) binding affinities of published and predicted cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes. Polymorphisms in Vif and Vpr during early infection occurred more frequently at epitope-HLA anchor residues and significantly decreased predicted epitope-HLA binding. Transmission-associated sequence signatures may have implications for novel strategies to prevent HIV-1 transmission.

Botswana's progress toward achieving the 2020 UNAIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy and virological suppression goals: a population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: HIV programmes face challenges achieving high rates of HIV testing and treatment needed to optimise health and to reduce transmission. We used data from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project study survey to assess Botswana's progress toward achieving UNAIDS targets for 2020: 90% of all people living with HIV knowing their status, 90% of these receiving sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of those having virological suppression (90-90-90). METHODS: A population-based sample of individuals was recruited and interviewed in 30 rural and periurban communities from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015, as part of a large, ongoing community-randomised trial designed to assess the effect of a combination prevention package on HIV incidence. A random sample of about 20% of households in each community was selected. Consenting household residents aged 16-64 years who were Botswana citizens or spouses of citizens responded to a questionnaire and had blood drawn for HIV testing in the absence of documentation of positive HIV status. Viral load testing was done in all HIV-infected participants, irrespective of treatment status. We used modified Poisson generalised estimating equations to obtain prevalence ratios, corresponding Huber robust SEs, and 95% Wald CIs to examine associations between individual sociodemographic factors and a binary outcome indicating achievement of the three individual and combined overall 90-90-90 targets. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01965470. FINDINGS: 81% of enumerated eligible household members took part in the survey (10% refused and 9% were absent). Among 12 610 participants surveyed, 3596 (29%) were infected with HIV, and 2995 (83·3%, 95% CI 81·4-85·2) of these individuals already knew their HIV status. Among those who knew their HIV status, 2617 (87·4%, 95% CI 85·8-89·0) were receiving ART (95% of those eligible by national guidelines, and 73% of all infected people). Of the 2609 individuals receiving ART with a viral load measurement, 2517 (96·5%, 95% CI 96·0-97·0) had viral load of 400 copies per mL or less. Overall, 70·2% (95% CI 67·5-73·0) of HIV-infected people had virological suppression, close to the UNAIDS target of 73%. INTERPRETATION: UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets are achievable even in resource-constrained settings with high HIV burden. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Effect of BMI and fat mass on HIV disease progression in HIV-infected, antiretroviral treatment-naïve adults in Botswana.

An obesity paradox has been proposed in many conditions including HIV. Studies conducted to investigate obesity and its effect on HIV disease progression have been inconclusive and are lacking for African settings. This study investigated the relationship between overweight/obesity (BMI≥25 kg/m2) and HIV disease progression in HIV+ asymptomatic adults not on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Botswana over 18 months. A cohort study in asymptomatic, ART-naïve, HIV+ adults included 217 participants, 139 with BMI of 18·0-24·9 kg/m2 and seventy-eight participants with BMI≥25 kg/m2. The primary outcome was time to event (≥25 % decrease in cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cell count) during 18 months of follow-up; secondary outcomes were time to event of CD4 cell count<250 cells/µl and AIDS-defining conditions. Proportional survival hazard models were used to compare hazard ratios (HR) on time to events of HIV disease progression over 18 months. Higher baseline BMI was associated with significantly lower risk of an AIDS-defining condition during the follow-up (HR 0·218; 95 % CI 0·068, 0·701; P=0·011). Higher fat mass at baseline was also significantly associated with decreased risk of AIDS-defining conditions during the follow-up (HR 0·855; 95 % CI 0·741, 0·987; P=0·033) and the combined outcome of having CD4 cell count≤250/µl and AIDS-defining conditions, whichever occurred earlier (HR 0·918; 95 % CI 0·847, 0·994; P=0·036). All models were adjusted for covariates. Higher BMI and fat mass among the HIV-infected, ART-naïve participants were associated with slower disease progression. Mechanistic research is needed to evaluate the association between BMI, fat mass and HIV disease progression.

Sharp increase in rates of HIV transmitted drug resistance at antenatal clinics in Botswana demonstrates the need for routine surveillance.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate for the presence of drug resistance to HIV medications in treatment-naive individuals in Botswana. METHODS: Two different populations were evaluated for evidence of HIV drug resistance at three different geographical locations in Botswana. In the first study population, consisting of pregnant females diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy, participants were enrolled at the time of their HIV diagnosis. The second population included pre-ART enrollees at Infectious Diseases Care Clinics (IDCCs) who had a CD4 T cell count >350 cells/µL. RESULTS: A total of 422 genotypes were determined: 234 for samples from antenatal clinic (ANC) participants and 188 for samples from IDCC participants. Between 2012 and 2014, 6 of 172 (3.5%) genotypes from ANC participants exhibited transmitted drug resistance (TDR), with 3 (1.7%) showing resistance to first-line ART. In a subset of samples from Gaborone, Botswana's capital and largest city, the TDR rate was 3 in 105 (2.9%), but only 1 in 105 (1.0%) showed first-line ART resistance. Between December 2014 and April 2015, the rate of resistance to any ART in Gaborone was 6 in 62 (9.7%), with 5 (8.1%) exhibiting first-line ART resistance. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that TDR rates for HIV differ geographically and temporally in Botswana, with significant increases in TDR observed at ANCs in Gaborone between 2012 and 2015. These findings stress the importance of continued testing for TDR, particularly as access to HIV treatment increases and guidelines recommend treatment at the time of HIV diagnosis.

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana.

Southern Africa continues to be the epicenter of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This HIV-1 subtype C epidemic has a predominantly heterosexual mode of virus transmission and high (>15%) HIV prevalence among adults. The epidemiological dynamics of the HIV-1C epidemic in southern Africa are still poorly understood. Here, we aim at a better understanding of HIV transmission dynamics by analyzing HIV-1 subtype C sequences from Mochudi, a peri-urban village in Botswana. HIV-1C env gene sequences (gp120 V1C5) were obtained through enhanced household-based HIV testing and counseling in Mochudi. More than 1200 sequences were generated and phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics within Mochudi identified. The Bayesian birth-death skyline plot was used to estimate the effective reproductive number, R, and the timing of virus transmission, to classify sub-epidemics as "acute" (those with recent viral transmissions) or "historic" (those without recent viral transmissions). We identified two of the 15 sub-epidemics as "acute." The median estimates of R among the clusters ranged from 0.72 to 1.77. The majority of HIV lineages, 11 out of 15 clusters with 5+ members, appear to have been introduced to Mochudi between 1996 and 2002. The median peak duration of viral transmissions was 7.1 years (range 2.9-9.7 years). The median life span of identified HIV sub-epidemics, i.e., the time between the inferred epidemic origin and its most recent sample, was 13.1 years (range 10.2-22.1 years). Most viral transmissions within the sub-epidemics occurred between 1997 and 2007. The time period during which infected people are infectious appears to have decreased since the introduction of the national ART program in Botswana. Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Estimated age and gender profile of individuals missed by a home-based HIV testing and counselling campaign in a Botswana community.

INTRODUCTION: It would be useful to understand which populations are not reached by home-based HIV-1 testing and counselling (HTC) to improve strategies aimed at linking these individuals to care and reducing rates of onward HIV transmission. METHODS: We present the results of a baseline home-based HTC (HBHTC) campaign aimed at counselling and testing residents aged 16 to 64 for HIV in the north-eastern sector of Mochudi, a community in Botswana with about 44,000 inhabitants. Collected data were compared with population references for Botswana, the United Nations (UN) estimates based on the National Census data and the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey IV (BAIS-IV). Analyzed data and references were stratified by age and gender. RESULTS: A total of 6238 age-eligible residents were tested for HIV-1; 1247 (20.0%; 95% CI 19.0 to 21.0%) were found to be HIV positive (23.7% of women vs. 13.4% of men). HIV-1 prevalence peaked at 44% in 35- to 39-year-old women and 32% in 40- to 44-year-old men. A lower HIV prevalence rate, 10.9% (95% CI 9.5 to 12.5%), was found among individuals tested for the first time. A significant gender gap was evident in all analyzed subsets. The existing HIV transmission network was analyzed by combining phylogenetic mapping and household structure. Between 62.4 and 71.8% of all HIV-positive individuals had detectable virus. When compared with the UN and BAIS-IV estimates, the proportion of men missed by the testing campaign (48.5%; 95% CI 47.0 to 50.0%) was significantly higher than the proportion of missed women (14.2%; 95% CI 13.2 to 15.3%; p<0.0001). The estimated proportion of missed men peaked at about 60% in the age group 30 to 39 years old. The proportions of missed women were substantially smaller, at approximately 28% within the age groups 30 to 34 and 45 to 49 years old. CONCLUSIONS: The HBHTC campaign seems to be an efficient tool for reaching individuals who have never been tested previously in southern African communities. However, about half of men from 16 to 64 years old were not reached by the HBHTC, including about 60% of men between 30 and 40 years old. Alternative HTC strategies should be developed to bring these men to care, which will contribute to reduction of HIV incidence in communities.