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We assessed socioeconomic inequalities in social protection coverage among the public, men and women living with the human immunodeficiency virus (MLHIV, WLHIV), and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). We used population-based data from Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Eswatini, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We constructed concentration curves (CC) and computed concentration indices (CIX) for each country and population group. A CC represents the cumulative percentage of social protection coverage plotted on the y-axis against the cumulative proportion of the population-ranked by socioeconomic status from the poorest to the richest-on the x-axis. The CIX quantifies the concentration of social protection coverage among the poor or the rich. The sample size ranged from 10,197 in Eswatini to 29,577 in Tanzania. Social protection coverage among the public varied from 5.2% (95% Confidence Interval 4.5%-6.0%) in Ethiopia to 39.9% (37.0%-42.8%) in Eswatini. It ranged from 6.9% (5.7%-8.4%) MLHIV in Zambia to 45.0% (41.2-49.0) among WLHIV in Namibia. Among AGYW, it varied from 4.4% (3.6-5.3) in Ethiopia to 44.6% (40.8-48.5) in Eswatini. Socioeconomic inequalities in social protection coverage favored the poor in 11/13 countries surveyed. It favored the rich in Cameroon and was undefined in Côte d'Ivoire. The CIX in these 11 countries ranged from -0.080 (p = 0.002) among the public in Malawi to -0.372 (p< 0.001) among WLHIV in Zimbabwe. In 8 of these 11 countries, ≥15% of people from the poorest households reported receiving social protection. Only in countries with higher levels of social protection coverage did most people from the poorest households achieve high coverage. Social protection coverage was low and favored the poor. Pro-poor social protection is insufficient to reach the poor. Research is required to reach the poorest households with social protection in Africa.
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OBJECTIVE: As a large and populous country, China releases a high number of diagnostic criteria. However, the published diagnostic criteria have not yet been systematically analyzed. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the characteristics, development methods, reporting quality, and evidence basis of diagnostic criteria published in China. METHODS: We searched five databases for diagnostic criteria from their inception until July 31, 2023. All diagnostic criteria were screened through abstract and full-text reading, and included if satisfying the prespecified criteria. Two researchers independently extracted data on the characteristics, development methods, reporting quality, and evidence basis of diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: A total of 143 diagnostic criteria were included. In terms of development methods, the proportions of diagnostic criteria that involved a systematic literature search (n = 2; 1.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.4% to 5.0%), adoption of formal consensus methods (n = 4; 2.8%; 95% CI, 1.1% to 7.0%), and criteria validation (n = 9; 6.3%; 95% CI, 3.3% to 11.5%) were relatively low. Regarding reporting quality, the average compliance with the ACCORD checklist was 5.1%; none of the diagnostic criteria reported on registration, expert inclusion criteria, expert recruitment process, or consensus results. A majority (58.7%; 95% CI, 50.6% to 66.5%) of criteria did not cite any research, and only one (0.7%; 95% CI, 0.1% to 3.9%) criterion was derived from a systematic review. Moreover, only 16.1% (95% CI, 11.0% to 23.0%) of diagnostic criteria used evidence from the Chinese population. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic criteria developed in China exhibit serious flaws, particularly in evidence retrieval, formation of expert panels, consensus methods, and validation. Additionally, only few diagnostic criteria used a systematic synthesis of the evidence or evidence from the China. There is an urgent need to enhance the methodology for developing diagnostic criteria.
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Medicina Baseada em Evidências , China , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Medicina Baseada em Evidências/normasRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Patient and public versions of guidelines (PVGs) have gradually gained wide recognition and attention from the public and the society due to their scientific, professional, and authoritative characteristics. This study aims to survey the awareness and knowledge of PVGs among stakeholders in China. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a cross-sectional survey among stakeholders (guideline developers, clinicians, journal editors, patients, and the public) in China. We self-designed the questionnaire and distributed it through the Questionnaire Star platform. The primary outcomes were awareness of PVGs and opinions about the development methodology, writing, dissemination, and implementation of PVGs. The Kruskal-Wallis H test and post hoc multiple comparison tests were used to compare the levels of awareness of PVGs between different subgroups of respondents. RESULTS: A total of 1319 valid questionnaires were collected: 722 from guideline developers, 136 from clinicians, 83 from journal editors, 284 from patients, and 94 from members of the public. Of all respondents, 253 (19.2%) had not heard of PVGs, 349 (26.5%) had heard of PVGs but had no further knowledge, 475 (36.0%) had some knowledge of PVGs, and 242 (18.3%) were familiar with or had participated in the development of PVGs. Guideline developers, clinicians, and journal editors had higher awareness than patients and the public. Higher education and older age also correlated with higher awareness of PVGs. More than half (52.9%) of guideline developers considered that both rewriting of the source guidelines and direct development as independent documents were appropriate methods for developing PVGs. The survey respondents agreed that clinicians (97.3%), guideline methodologists (76.6%), representatives of patients and the public (74.5%), and medical editors or writers (63.4%) should participate in the development of PVGs. More than 80% of the respondents agreed that the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations should be presented; however, there was no consensus in the form of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: The level of awareness of PVGs among stakeholders in China is relatively low and differs between different stakeholder groups, but the majority of key stakeholders have a positive attitude toward PVGs. The collection of the perspectives and opinions on the development methods, writing, dissemination, and implementation provides a key reference and basis for the future optimization and improvement of PVGs development.
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Persons with disabilities are disadvantaged in accessing sexual and reproductive health services, including condoms. In this study, we investigated whether condom access and use and their associated factors differed between persons with and without disabilities. We used data from adults in households receiving the Government of Zambia social cash transfers (SCT) in four districts of Luapula province. Condom access and use was the outcome. Disability, defined by the Washington Group Short Set Questions on Disability, was the main predictor. We performed logistic regression analyses to determine the associations between condom access and use and disability. In multivariable analyses, we controlled for covariates including age, sex, marital status, poverty status, HIV testing, and receiving the SCT. The sample comprised 1,143 people aged 16-49, with a median age of 21 years (interquartile range 18-28); 57.4% (n = 656) were female, 86.5% (n = 989) accessed and used condoms, and 17.9% (n = 205) were disabled, rating themselves with a 3 or a 4 on a scale of 1 = "not limited" to 4 = "cannot at all" in performing any of the six daily functions (seeing, hearing, walking, cognition, self-care, or communicating). Nearly sixty percent(58.5% (n = 120)) of persons with disabilities were female, 79.5% (n = 163) reported being very poor, 87.8% (n = 180) reported receiving SCT, and 86.3% (n = 177) reported accessing and using condoms. Condom access and use did not differ between persons with and without disabilities (adjusted odds ratio: 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.60-1.98]). We found no differences between persons with and without disabilities in condom access and use. We established that individual-level factors such as age, sex, marital status, and knowledge of being HIV positive might play a more important role in condom access and use than disability. Condom promotion interventions should account for these factors.
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Preservativos , Pessoas com Deficiência , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Zâmbia , Preservativos/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Adolescente , Estudos Transversais , Pessoas com Deficiência/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Infecções por HIV/economia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/economiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Conflicts of interest (COIs) of contributors to a guideline project and the funding of that project can influence the development of the guideline. Comprehensive reporting of information on COIs and funding is essential for the transparency and credibility of guidelines. OBJECTIVE: To develop an extension of the Reporting Items for practice Guidelines in HealThcare (RIGHT) statement for the reporting of COIs and funding in policy documents of guideline organizations and in guidelines: the RIGHT-COI&F checklist. DESIGN: The recommendations of the Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research (EQUATOR) network were followed. The process consisted of registration of the project and setting up working groups, generation of the initial list of items, achieving consensus on the items, and formulating and testing the final checklist. SETTING: International collaboration. PARTICIPANTS: 44 experts. MEASUREMENTS: Consensus on checklist items. RESULTS: The checklist contains 27 items: 18 about the COIs of contributors and 9 about the funding of the guideline project. Of the 27 items, 16 are labeled as policy related because they address the reporting of COI and funding policies that apply across an organization's guideline projects. These items should be described ideally in the organization's policy documents, otherwise in the specific guideline. The remaining 11 items are labeled as implementation related and they address the reporting of COIs and funding of the specific guideline. LIMITATION: The RIGHT-COI&F checklist requires testing in real-life use. CONCLUSION: The RIGHT-COI&F checklist can be used to guide the reporting of COIs and funding in guideline development and to assess the completeness of reporting in published guidelines and policy documents. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China.
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Lista de Checagem , Conflito de Interesses , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Humanos , Apoio à Pesquisa como Assunto/ética , RevelaçãoRESUMO
Importance: Large language models (LLMs) may facilitate the labor-intensive process of systematic reviews. However, the exact methods and reliability remain uncertain. Objective: To explore the feasibility and reliability of using LLMs to assess risk of bias (ROB) in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Design, Setting, and Participants: A survey study was conducted between August 10, 2023, and October 30, 2023. Thirty RCTs were selected from published systematic reviews. Main Outcomes and Measures: A structured prompt was developed to guide ChatGPT (LLM 1) and Claude (LLM 2) in assessing the ROB in these RCTs using a modified version of the Cochrane ROB tool developed by the CLARITY group at McMaster University. Each RCT was assessed twice by both models, and the results were documented. The results were compared with an assessment by 3 experts, which was considered a criterion standard. Correct assessment rates, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 scores were calculated to reflect accuracy, both overall and for each domain of the Cochrane ROB tool; consistent assessment rates and Cohen κ were calculated to gauge consistency; and assessment time was calculated to measure efficiency. Performance between the 2 models was compared using risk differences. Results: Both models demonstrated high correct assessment rates. LLM 1 reached a mean correct assessment rate of 84.5% (95% CI, 81.5%-87.3%), and LLM 2 reached a significantly higher rate of 89.5% (95% CI, 87.0%-91.8%). The risk difference between the 2 models was 0.05 (95% CI, 0.01-0.09). In most domains, domain-specific correct rates were around 80% to 90%; however, sensitivity below 0.80 was observed in domains 1 (random sequence generation), 2 (allocation concealment), and 6 (other concerns). Domains 4 (missing outcome data), 5 (selective outcome reporting), and 6 had F1 scores below 0.50. The consistent rates between the 2 assessments were 84.0% for LLM 1 and 87.3% for LLM 2. LLM 1's κ exceeded 0.80 in 7 and LLM 2's in 8 domains. The mean (SD) time needed for assessment was 77 (16) seconds for LLM 1 and 53 (12) seconds for LLM 2. Conclusions: In this survey study of applying LLMs for ROB assessment, LLM 1 and LLM 2 demonstrated substantial accuracy and consistency in evaluating RCTs, suggesting their potential as supportive tools in systematic review processes.
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Viés , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Humanos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Idioma , Medição de Risco/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk for HIV infection and face unique barriers to receiving and adhering to testing and treatment. Early viral suppression and consistent viral load testing are critical to optimizing health and reducing transmission in this population. However, the factors associated with testing and successful viral suppression among FSWs are poorly understood, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine factors, including social, demographic, and clinical characteristics, associated with viral load testing and suppression among female sex workers initiating antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we analyzed routine programmatic data from FSWs enrolled in the National HIV Key Populations (KP) program in Nigeria. We included FSWs who were newly diagnosed with HIV and registered between January 2016 and January 2022. Primary outcomes of interest were a), receiving a viral load test at any point after treatment initiation and b), viral suppression (<1000 copies/ml) at the test closest to 6 months after treatment initiation. To identify factors associated with the outcomes of interest, we used univariable and multivariable logistic regression, with random intercepts for care facilities, and multiple imputation for missing values. FINDINGS: Out of 34,976 FSWs, 97.1% (n = 33,945) received at least one viral load test, with 94.5% (n = 32,092) indicating viral suppression. The odds of receiving at least one viral load test were higher for those who entered treatment in more recent years, those with formal education and those with advanced HIV stages at baseline (adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 1.17 [1.14-1.19] for those who entered treatment in 2020 vs. 2016; 1.02 [1.01-1.03] for post-secondary vs. no education; and 1.05 [1.01-1.10] for WHO clinical stage 3/4 vs. stage 1 respectively). The odds of successful viral suppression were higher for those who entered treatment in more recent years, but lower for those with advanced HIV stages at baseline (aOR: 1.13 [1.09-1.18] for 2022 vs. 2016; and 0.92 [0.87-0.98] for WHO clinical stage 3/4 vs. stage 1 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The study underscored the relevance of timely diagnosis and ART initiation for optimal outcomes among HIV-positive FSWs in Nigeria. We also observed significant improvements in the likelihood of early viral load testing and suppression over the study period, reflecting advancements in the KP program. Further research should clarify factors driving these trends to further strengthen the HIV care pipeline for female sex workers.
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Infecções por HIV , Profissionais do Sexo , Carga Viral , Humanos , Feminino , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Profissionais do Sexo/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/virologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Pessoa de Meia-IdadeRESUMO
Objectives: This study assesses tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes in Haiti. Methods: Data from drug-susceptible patients with TB (2018-2019) were analyzed using the Fine & Gray model with multiple imputation. Results: Of the 16,545 patients, 14.7% had concurrent HIV coinfection, with a 66.2% success rate. The median treatment duration was 5 months, with patients averaging 30 years (with an interquartile range of 22-42 years). The estimated hazard of achieving a successful treatment outcome decreased by 2.5% and 8.1% for patients aged 45 and 60 years, respectively, compared with patients aged 30 years. Male patients had a 6.5% lower estimated hazard of success than their female counterparts. In addition, patients coinfected with HIV experienced a 35.3% reduction in the estimated hazard of achieving a successful treatment outcome compared with those with a negative HIV serologic status. Conclusions: Integrated health care approaches should be implemented, incorporating innovative solutions, such as machine learning algorithms combined with geographic information systems and non-conventional data sources (including social media), to identify TB hotspots and high-burden households.
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Despite the increasing number of radiological case reports, the majority lack a standardised methodology of writing and reporting. We therefore develop a reporting guideline for radiological case reports based on the CAse REport (CARE) statement. We established a multidisciplinary group of experts, comprising 40 radiologists, methodologists, journal editors and researchers, to develop a reporting guideline for radiological case reports according to the methodology recommended by the Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research network. The Delphi panel was requested to evaluate the significance of a list of elements for potential inclusion in a guideline for reporting mediation analyses. By reviewing the reporting guidelines and through discussion, we initially drafted 46 potential items. Following a Delphi survey and discussion, the final CARE-radiology checklist is comprised of 38 items in 16 domains. CARE-radiology is a comprehensive reporting guideline for radiological case reports developed using a rigorous methodology. We hope that compliance with CARE-radiology will help in the future to improve the completeness and quality of case reports in radiology.
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OBJECTIVE: To summarize the evidence of various exercise modalities on population with insomnia disorders. METHOD: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched for eligible studies published from inception to October 2022 and updated on September 2023. Systematic reviews with meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials designed to investigate the effect of various exercise modalities on population with insomnia were eligible. RESULTS: A total of 4 SRs with (very) low methodological quality and 1034 participants in 10 network meta-analyses explored the association between different types and intensity exercise modalities with insomnia disorders. Various exercise modalities could significantly improve total sleep time and sleep quality and alleviate insomnia severity. Compared to passive control, moderate aerobic exercise, moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity strength and mind-body exercise can improve sleep efficiency and reduce wake after sleep onset by objectively measured. Moderate intensity strength, light intensity strength and mind-body exercise can improve sleep efficiency subjectively measured; mind-body exercise can reduce sleep onset latency and wake time after sleep onset, and increase total sleep time; moderate aerobic exercise can reduce sleep onset latency. Moderate intensity strength, light intensity strength, mind body exercise and moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity strength can the severity of insomnia and improv sleep quality. CONCLUSION: Exercise had a positive effect on relief insomnia and improve sleep quality. Moderate aerobic exercise, mind-body exercise and moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity strength play an important role in improving the sleep quality in people with insomnia disorders.
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Exercício Físico , Distúrbios do Início e da Manutenção do Sono , Humanos , Terapia por Exercício , Metanálise em Rede , Sono , Distúrbios do Início e da Manutenção do Sono/terapia , Revisões Sistemáticas como AssuntoRESUMO
Background: The prevalence of HIV varies greatly between and within countries. We aimed to build a comprehensive mathematical modelling tool capable of exploring the reasons of this heterogeneity and test its applicability by simulating the Malawian HIV epidemic. Methods: We developed a flexible individual-based mathematical model for HIV transmission that comprises a spatial representation and individual-level determinants. We tested this model by calibrating it to the HIV epidemic in Malawi and exploring whether the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence could be reproduced. We ran the model for 1975-2030 with five alternative realizations of the geographical structure and mobility: (I) no geographical structure; 28 administrative districts including (II) only permanent inter-district relocations, (III) inter-district permanent relocations and casual sexual relationships, or (IV) permanent relocations between districts and to/from abroad and inter-district casual sex; and (V) a grid of 10 × 10km2 cells, with permanent relocations and between-cell casual relationships. We assumed HIV was present in 1975 in the districts with >10 % prevalence in 2010. We calibrated the models to national and district-level prevalence estimates. Results: Reaching the national prevalence required all adults to have at least 22 casual sex acts/year until 1990. Models II, III and V reproduced the geographical heterogeneity in prevalence in 2010 to some extent if between-district relationships were excluded (Model II; 4.9 %-21.1 %). Long-distance casual partnership mixing mitigated the differences in prevalence substantially (range across districts 4.1%-18.9 % in 2010 in Model III; 4.0%-17.6 % in Model V); with international migration the differences disappeared (Model IV; range across districts 6.9%-13.3 % in 2010). National prevalence decreased to 5 % by 2030. Conclusion: Earlier introduction of HIV into the Southern part of Malawi may cause some level of heterogeneity in HIV prevalence. Other factors such as sociobehavioural characteristics are likely to have a major impact and need investigation.
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BACKGROUND: Persons with disability may have a higher HIV prevalence and be less likely than persons without disability to know their HIV-positive status, access antiretroviral therapy (ART), and suppress their HIV viral load (HIV care cascade). However, studies examining differences between persons with and without disability in HIV prevalence and the HIV care cascade are lacking. Using the Tanzania HIV Impact Survey (THIS) data collected between October 2016 and August 2017, we assessed differences in HIV prevalence and progress towards achieving the 2020 HIV care cascade target between persons with and without disability. METHODS: Using the Washington Group Short Set (WG-SS) Questions on Disability, we defined disability as having a functional difficulty in any of the six life domains (seeing, hearing, walking/climbing, remembering/ concentrating, self-care, and communicating). We classified respondents as disabled if they responded having either "Some Difficulty", "A lot of difficulties" or "Unable to" in any of the WG-SS Questions. We presented the sample characteristics by disability status and analyzed the achievement of the cascade target by disability status, and sex. We used multivariable logistic regressions, and adjusted for age, sex, rural-urban residence, education, and wealth quintile. RESULTS: A total of 31,579 respondents aged 15 years and older had HIV test results. Of these 1,831 tested HIV-positive, corresponding to an estimated HIV prevalence of 4.9% (CI: 4.5 - 5.2%) among the adult population in Tanzania. The median age of respondents who tested HIV-positive was 32 years (with IQR of 21-45 years). HIV prevalence was higher (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.3-7.4%) among persons with disability than persons without disability (4.3%, 95% CI: 4.0 - 4.6%). Before adjustment, compared to women without disability, more women with disability were aware of their HIV-positive status (n = 101, 79.0%, 95% CI: 68.0-87.0% versus n = 703, 63.0%, 95% CI: 59.1-66.7%) and accessed ART more frequently (n = 98, 98.7%, 95% CI: 95.3-99.7% versus n = 661, 94.7%, 95% CI: 92.6-96.3%). After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, the odds of having HIV and of accessing ART did not differ between persons with and without disability. However, PLHIV with disability had higher odds of being aware of their HIV-positive status (aOR 1.69, 95% 1.05-2.71) than PLHIV without disability. Men living with HIV and with disability had lower odds (aOR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.86) to suppress HIV viral loads than their counterparts without disability. CONCLUSION: We found no significant differences in the odds of having HIV and of accessing ART between persons with and without disability in Tanzania. While PLHIV and disability, were often aware of their HIV-positive status than their non-disabled counterparts, men living with HIV and with disability may have been disadvantaged in having suppressed HIV viral loads. These differences are correctable with disability-inclusive HIV programming. HIV surveys around the world should include questions on disability to measure potential differences in HIV prevalence and in attaining the 2025 HIV care cascade target between persons with and without disability.
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Pessoas com Deficiência , Infecções por HIV , Adulto , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Transversais , Prevalência , Tanzânia/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologiaRESUMO
AIMS OF THE STUDY: Remdesivir has shown benefits against COVID-19. However, it remains unclear whether, to what extent, and among whom remdesivir can reduce COVID-19-related mortality. We explored whether the treatment response to remdesivir differed by patient characteristics. METHODS: We analysed data collected from a hospital surveillance study conducted in 21 referral hospitals in Switzerland between 2020 and 2022. We applied model-based recursive partitioning to group patients by the association between treatment levels and mortality. We included either treatment (levels: none, remdesivir within 7 days of symptom onset, remdesivir after 7 days, or another treatment), age and sex, or treatment only as regression variables. Candidate partitioning variables included a range of risk factors and comorbidities (and age and sex unless included in regression). We repeated the analyses using local centring to correct the results for the propensity to receive treatment. RESULTS: Overall (n = 21,790 patients), remdesivir within 7 days was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratios 1.28-1.54 versus no treatment). The CURB-65 score caused the most instability in the regression parameters of the model. When adjusted for age and sex, patients receiving remdesivir within 7 days of onset had higher mortality than those not treated in all identified eight patient groups. When age and sex were included as partitioning variables instead, the number of groups increased to 19-20; in five to six of those branches, mortality was lower among patients who received early remdesivir. Factors determining the groups where remdesivir was potentially beneficial included the presence of oncological comorbidities, male sex, and high age. CONCLUSIONS: Some subgroups of patients, such as individuals with oncological comorbidities or elderly males, may benefit from remdesivir.
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COVID-19 , Idoso , Masculino , Humanos , Suíça/epidemiologia , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19 , Hospitais , Antivirais/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
Retention of antiretroviral (ART) patients is a priority for achieving HIV epidemic control in South Africa. While machine-learning methods are being increasingly utilised to identify high risk populations for suboptimal HIV service utilisation, they are limited in terms of explaining relationships between predictors. To further understand these relationships, we implemented machine learning methods optimised for predictive power and traditional statistical methods. We used routinely collected electronic medical record (EMR) data to evaluate longitudinal predictors of lost-to-follow up (LTFU) and temporal interruptions in treatment (IIT) in the first two years of treatment for ART patients in the Gauteng and North West provinces of South Africa. Of the 191,162 ART patients and 1,833,248 visits analysed, 49% experienced at least one IIT and 85% of those returned for a subsequent clinical visit. Patients iteratively transition in and out of treatment indicating that ART retention in South Africa is likely underestimated. Historical visit attendance is shown to be predictive of IIT using machine learning, log binomial regression and survival analyses. Using a previously developed categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithm, we demonstrate that historical visit attendance alone is able to predict almost half of next missed visits. With the addition of baseline demographic and clinical features, this model is able to predict up to 60% of next missed ART visits with a sensitivity of 61.9% (95% CI: 61.5-62.3%), specificity of 66.5% (95% CI: 66.4-66.7%), and positive predictive value of 19.7% (95% CI: 19.5-19.9%). While the full usage of this model is relevant for settings where infrastructure exists to extract EMR data and run computations in real-time, historical visits attendance alone can be used to identify those at risk of disengaging from HIV care in the absence of other behavioural or observable risk factors.
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BACKGROUND: Molnupiravir has been considered a promising candidate for COVID-19. Its efficacy and safety in non-severe COVID-19 patients and the differences between patients with different risk factors need further evaluation. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that allocated adult patients with non-severe COVID-19 to molnupiravir or a control. We used random-effects models, and conducted subgroup analyses and meta-regression for COVID-19 patients with high-risk factors. The GRADE approach was used to rate the certainty of evidence. RESULTS: Fourteen trials with 34â570 patients were included. Moderate- to low-certainty evidence showed that molnupiravir was associated with a reduction in the risk of hospitalization (relative risk [RR]â=â0.63, 95% CI: 0.47-0.85), risk of mechanical ventilation (RRâ=â0.37, 95% CI: 0.19-0.72) and time to symptom resolution (mean differences [MD]â=â-2.91 days, 95% CI: -3.66 to -2.16). However, no significant differences were found in adverse events, all-cause mortality, rate of and time to viral clearance, or duration of hospitalization. For the rate of viral clearance, subgroup effects were found between trials with low and high risk of bias (Pâ=â0.001) and between trials with male or female majority (Pâ<â0.001). For admission to hospital, subgroup effects were also found between trials with ≥50% and <50% of the participants being female (Pâ=â0.04). Meta-regression showed a significant association between higher trial mean age and elevated risk of hospitalization (Pâ=â0.011), and female majority and elevated risk of hospitalization (Pâ=â0.011). CONCLUSIONS: Molnupiravir was found to be effective in non-severe COVID-19, but the efficacy varied with age and sex.
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COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , HospitalizaçãoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: We examined age, residence, education and wealth inequalities and their combinations on cervical precancer screening probabilities for women. We hypothesised that inequalities in screening favoured women who were older, lived in urban areas, were more educated and wealthier. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment data. SETTING: Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Differences in screening rates were analysed using multivariable logistic regressions, controlling for age, residence, education and wealth. Inequalities in screening probability were estimated using marginal effects models. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 25-49 years, reporting screening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported screening rates, and their inequalities in percentage points, with differences of 20%+ defined as high inequality, 5%-20% as medium, 0%-5% as low. RESULTS: The sample size of participants ranged from 5882 in Ethiopia to 9186 in Tanzania. The screening rates were low in the surveyed countries, ranging from 3.5% (95% CI 3.1% to 4.0%) in Rwanda to 17.1% (95% CI 15.8% to 18.5%) and 17.4% (95% CI 16.1% to 18.8%) in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Inequalities in screening rates were low based on covariates. Combining the inequalities led to significant inequalities in screening probabilities between women living in rural areas aged 25-34 years, with a primary education level, from the lowest wealth quintile, and women living in urban areas aged 35-49 years, with the highest education level, from the highest wealth quintile, ranging from 4.4% in Rwanda to 44.6% in Zimbabwe. CONCLUSIONS: Cervical precancer screening rates were inequitable and low. No country surveyed achieved one-third of the WHO's target of screening 70% of eligible women by 2030. Combining inequalities led to high inequalities, preventing women who were younger, lived in rural areas, were uneducated, and from the lowest wealth quintile from screening. Governments should include and monitor equity in their cervical precancer screening programmes.