Projected northward shifts in eastern red-backed salamanders due to changing climate.

Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Farmland composition and farming practices explain spatio-temporal variations in red-legged partridge density in central Spain.

Many farmland bird populations are declining, and their negative trends are often associated with changes in land-use or farming practices, including the use of agrochemicals. The red-legged partridge (RLP) is a Mediterranean farmland game species of high socio-economic importance whose populations are thought to have declined sharply since the mid-20th century associated with farmland changes. However, no large-scale studies have tested whether abundance or trends of RLP are related to farmland composition or management. We used hierarchical distance sampling models to estimate RLP abundance in 2010 in central Spain (Castilla-La Mancha), a main European population stronghold of this species. We studied associations between RLP density and land-uses (including variation in management: irrigated crops or organic farming). We also assessed regional abundance variation over seven years (2010-2017) and its relationship with changes in land-use. Our results show that RLP abundance increased with the availability of natural vegetation and traditional rain-fed vineyards, but decreased with increasing proportions of tree crops and irrigated vineyards; the latter association was less pronounced in areas sensitive to nitrate contamination in water, where the amount of fertilizers applied in farmland and use of certain farming practices is more strictly regulated. These results support the idea that increases in intensive vineyards are detrimental to the RLP. We also report a strong population decline of RLP in the region, with a 51% abundance reduction in seven years. This decline was steeper in areas where more natural vegetation had been lost and where ecological tree crops had increased. Overall, our results indicate that changes in land-use (type of crop, or the destruction of natural vegetation in farmland) and farming practices (e.g. use of irrigation in certain crops, use of nitrates) have important impacts on this farmland bird, affecting both spatial distribution and population dynamics.

A Stepwise Assessment of Parsimony and Fuzzy Entropy in Species Distribution Modelling.

Entropy is intrinsic to the geographical distribution of a biological species. A species distribution with higher entropy involves more uncertainty, i.e., is more gradually constrained by the environment. Species distribution modelling tries to yield models with low uncertainty but normally has to reduce uncertainty by increasing their complexity, which is detrimental for another desirable property of the models, parsimony. By modelling the distribution of 18 vertebrate species in mainland Spain, we show that entropy may be computed along the forward-backwards stepwise selection of variables in Logistic Regression Models to check whether uncertainty is reduced at each step. In general, a reduction of entropy was produced asymptotically at each step of the model. This asymptote could be used to distinguish the entropy attributable to the species distribution from that attributable to model misspecification. We discussed the use of fuzzy entropy for this end because it produces results that are commensurable between species and study areas. Using a stepwise approach and fuzzy entropy may be helpful to counterbalance the uncertainty and the complexity of the models. The model yielded at the step with the lowest fuzzy entropy combines the reduction of uncertainty with parsimony, which results in high efficiency.

Changes in potential mammal diversity in national parks and their implications for conservation.

Observed species richness (OSR) is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric. However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant. Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined: potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness-PSR) and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF). We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015), using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km2 grid. PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area. For each park and for the whole network, we calculated the mean and sum of OSR, PSR, and GMF in each time period, as well as changes between periods. OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus, although the network covers a very small proportion of the country, it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas. However, mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network, whereas the opposite was the case outside the network. Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002, although the reduction was moderate to low. This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network.

Correction: Community structure informs species geographic distributions.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0197877.].

Community structure informs species geographic distributions.

Understanding what determines species' geographic distributions is crucial for assessing global change threats to biodiversity. Measuring limits on distributions is usually, and necessarily, done with data at large geographic extents and coarse spatial resolution. However, survival of individuals is determined by processes that happen at small spatial scales. The relative abundance of coexisting species (i.e. 'community structure') reflects assembly processes occurring at small scales, and are often available for relatively extensive areas, so could be useful for explaining species distributions. We demonstrate that Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) can overcome several challenges to including community structure into studies of species distributions, despite having been little used to date. We hypothesized that the relative abundance of coexisting species can improve predictions of species distributions. In 1570 assemblages of 68 Mediterranean woody plant species we used BNI to incorporate community structure into Species Distribution Models (SDMs), alongside environmental information. Information on species associations improved SDM predictions of community structure and species distributions moderately, though for some habitat specialists the deviance explained increased by up to 15%. We demonstrate that most species associations (95%) were positive and occurred between species with ecologically similar traits. This suggests that SDM improvement could be because species co-occurrences are a proxy for local ecological processes. Our study shows that Bayesian Networks, when interpreted carefully, can be used to include local conditions into measurements of species' large-scale distributions, and this information can improve the predictions of species distributions.

Assessment of the National Park network of mainland Spain by the Insecurity Index of vertebrate species.

The evaluation of protected area networks on their capacity to preserve species distributions is a key topic in conservation biology. There are different types of protected areas, with National Parks those with highest level of protection. National Parks can be declared attending to many ecological features that include the presence of certain animal species. Here, we selected 37 vertebrate species that were highlighted as having relevant natural value for at least one of the 10 National Parks of mainland Spain. We modelled species distributions with the favourability function, and applied the Insecurity Index to detect the degree of protection of favourable areas for each species. Two metrics of Insecurity Index were defined for each species: the Insecurity Index in each of the cells, and the Overall Insecurity Index of a species. The former allows the identification of insecure areas for each species that can be used to establish spatial conservation priorities. The latter gives a value of Insecurity for each species, which we used to calculate the Representativeness of favourable areas for the species in the network. As expected, due to the limited extension of the National Park network, all species have high values of Insecurity; i.e., just a narrow proportion of their favourable areas are covered by a National Park. However, the majority of species favourable areas are well represented in the network, i.e., the percentage of favourable areas covered by the National Park network is higher than the percentage of mainland Spain covered by the network (result also supported by a randomization approach). Even if a reserve network only covers a low percentage of a country, the Overall Insecurity Index allows an objective assessment of its capacity to represent species. Beyond the results presented here, the Insecurity Index has the potential to be extrapolated to other areas and to cover a wide range of species.

Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables.

We modelled the distribution of two vulnerable steppe birds, Otis tarda and Tetrax tetrax, in the Western Palearctic and projected their suitability up to the year 2080. We performed two types of models for each species: one that included environmental and geographic variables (space-included model) and a second one that only included environmental variables (space-excluded model). Our assumption was that ignoring geographic variables in the modelling procedure may result in inaccurate forecasting of species distributions. On the other hand, the inclusion of geographic variables may generate an artificial constraint on future projections. Our results show that space-included models performed better than space-excluded models. While distribution of suitable areas for T. tetrax in the future was approximately the same as at present in the space-included model, the space-excluded model predicted a pronounced geographic change of suitable areas for this species. In the case of O. tarda, the space-included model showed that many areas of current presence shifted to low or medium suitability in the future, whereas a northward expansion of intermediate suitable areas was predicted by the space-excluded one. According to the best models, current distribution of these species can restrict future distribution, probably due to dispersal constraints and site fidelity. Species ranges would be expected to shift gradually over the studied time period and, therefore, we consider it unlikely that most of the current distribution of these species in southern Europe will disappear in less than one hundred years. Therefore, populations currently occupying suitable areas should be a priority for conservation policies. Our results also show that climate-only models may have low explanatory power, and could benefit from adjustments using information on other environmental variables and biological traits; if the latter are not available, including the geographic predictor may improve the reliability of predicted results.

Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts.

Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.

Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution.

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.

Comportamiento del niño en el consultorio odontológico / Child behavior in the dental office

La investigación se estableció en explicar el comportamiento del niño en el consultorio odontológico sobre la base de condicionantes innatas y las que derivan del entorno social. Acorde con el propósito se observaron en 90 niños entre 3 y 8 años de edad, las expresiones de colaboración, agresividad y miedo, correlacionándolas con características intrínsecas y otras que derivan del medio ambiente social. La prueba Chi Cuadrado fue aplicada a las Hipótesis Nula (Ho) formuladas y los valores obtenidos permitieron verificar relación entre las variables características físico ambientales de los consultorios odontológicos, género, edad y percepción de los padres y representantes de la primera experiencia odontológica del niño con el miedo observado en la sala clínica. Se concluyó que el miedo y la baja colaboración, son las formas de comportamiento a través de las cuales los sujetos observados expresaron su temor al acto odontológico