An Aspiration to Radically Shorten Phase 3 Tuberculosis Vaccine Trials.

A new tuberculosis vaccine is a high priority. However, the classical development pathway is a major deterrent. Most tuberculosis cases arise within 2 years after Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure, suggesting a 3-year trial period should be possible if sample size is large to maximize the number of early exposures. Increased sample size could be facilitated by working alongside optimized routine services for case ascertainment, with strategies for enhanced case detection and safety monitoring. Shortening enrolment could be achieved by simplifying screening criteria and procedures and strengthening site capacity. Together, these measures could enable radically shortened phase 3 tuberculosis vaccine trials.

Adjusting time-of-day and depth of fishing provides an economically viable solution to seabird bycatch in an albacore tuna longline fishery.

Marine megafauna exposed to fisheries bycatch belong to some of the most threatened taxonomic groups and include apex and mesopredators that contribute to ecosystem regulation. Fisheries bycatch is a major threat to the conservation of albatrosses, large petrels and other pelagic seabirds. Using data sourced from a fisheries electronic monitoring system, we assessed the effects of the time-of-day and relative depth of fishing on seabird and target species catch rates for a Pacific Ocean pelagic longline fishery that targets albacore tuna with an apparently high albatross bycatch rate. Using a Bayesian inference workflow with a spatially-explicit generalized additive mixed model for albacore tuna and generalized linear mixed regression models both for combined albatrosses and combined seabirds, we found that time-of-day and fishing depth did not significantly affect the target species catch rate while night-time deep setting had > 99% lower albatross and total seabird catch rates compared to both deep and shallow partial day-time sets. This provides the first evidence that night-time setting in combination with fishing deep reduces seabird catch risk and may be commercially viable in this and similar albacore tuna longline fisheries. Findings support evidence-informed interventions to reduce the mortality of threatened seabird bycatch species in pelagic longline fisheries.

COVID-19 lockdowns: Employment and business disruptions, water access and hygiene practices in Nairobi's informal settlements.

Host to one billion people around the world, informal settlements are especially vulnerable to COVID-19 lockdown measures as they already lack basic services such as water, toilets, and secure housing. Additionally, many residents work in informal labor markets that have been affected by the lockdowns, resulting in further reductions in access to resources, including clean water. This study uses a cross-sectional design (n = 532) to examine the vulnerabilities of households to employment and business disruptions, water access and hygiene practices during the COVID-19 lockdowns between April and June 2020 in three informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. We used survey questions from the Household Water Insecurity Experience Scale (HWISE) to investigate the relationship between employment and business disruptions, water access, and hygiene practices (i.e., hand washing, body washing, clothes washing, and being able to use or drink clean water). Of the sampled households, 96% were forced to reduce work hours during the lockdowns, and these households had 92% lower odds of being able to afford water than households who did not experience a work hour reduction (OR = 0.08, p < .001). Household challenges in affording water were likely due to a combination of reduced household income, increased water prices, and pre-existing poverty, and were ultimately associated with lower hygiene scores (Beta = 1.9, p < .001). Our results highlight a compounding tragedy of reduced water access in informal settlements that were already facing water insecurities at a time when water is a fundamental requirement for following hygiene guidelines to reduce disease burden during an ongoing pandemic. These outcomes emphasize the need for targeted investments in permanent water supply infrastructures and improved hygiene behaviors as a public health priority among households in informal settlements.

First report of Rhizoctonia solani AG 4 causing brown bean of lima bean in Delaware.

Lima bean production has been an economically valuable staple in Delaware agriculture for almost a century, with annual revenue approaching 8 million dollars (USDA-NASS, 2019; Evans et al. 2007). From 2019-2021, lima beans displaying symptoms of brown discoloration, referred to as "brown bean" were observed in the green baby lima variety 'Cypress' across multiple commercial and research fields. Symptoms were present in approximately 1-5% of beans and not visible until pods were opened for harvest. Thirty-seven symptomatic beans were collected and surface disinfested in 0.85% sodium hypochlorite for 30 s, rinsed in sterile deionized water for 30 s, sectioned into four pieces and plated onto potato dextrose agar (PDA) amended with 50 µg/ml penicillin G and streptomycin sulfate. Petri dishes were incubated at 23ºC and observed for colony morphology. Pure cultures were obtained with tan colonies that had mycelia with right angle branching and septations near the branch, consistent with the description of Rhizoctonia solani Kuhn (Sneh et al. 1991). DNA extraction and pathogen identification was confirmed by sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of nuclear ribosomal DNA using primers ITS4/ITS5 (White et al. 1990) for thirty-seven isolates collected in 2019 and 2020. Isolates were identified as Rhizoctonia solani AG 4 (99.9% sequence identity with GenBank Accession [MN106359.1].) A representative isolate was selected to complete Koch's postulates and the sequence was deposited in GenBank as accession number MW560551. To observe colonization ability, 10 detached pods were sterilized in 75% EtOH for 60 s, then rinsed in Milli-Q water. The detached pods were divided among two 150 mm Petri dishes containing a single 150 mm filter paper saturated with Milli-Q water. Five 1 mm2 agar plugs colonized with the representative R. solani isolate were placed 0.5 cm apart along the length of the pod. Plates were sealed with parafilm and left at room temperature. Control pods were kept in identical conditions but inoculated using clean agar plugs. The trial was repeated and a second trial was conducted on 12 attached asymptomatic pods from C-Elite Select lima bean plants at the succulent seed stage to complete Koch's Postulates. Pods were surface disinfested with 70% ethanol. Three attached pods were wounded with the tip of a sterile scalpel blade where a colonized agar plug was placed and loosely wrapped with a thin parafilm layer to maintain contact. Three attached pods not wounded were also inoculated with a colonized agar plug and wrapped by parafilm. Three wounded and non-wounded pods received clean agar plug controls. Both attached and detached pods were kept at room temperature for one week until symptoms began to manifest on the pod surfaces, at which point the beans from infected pods were removed and placed on PDA, three to a plate. In the attached assay, all beans of both wounded and non-wounded pods developed symptoms. The plates were stored in identical conditions and monitored for 5 days until tan colonies were observed. Culture morphology was consistent with the original isolate in all beans. Sequencing of the ITS region confirmed identity as R. solani AG-4. No symptoms were observed on control pods or seeds. Rhizoctonia solani is most frequently associated with symptoms of root rot (Sharma-Poudyal et al. 2015), but no stem symptoms are associated with the late season "brown bean" that has been observed throughout production in recent years. To our knowledge, this is the first report of Rhizoctonia solani AG 4 causing symptoms of brown bean of lima bean in Delaware. In preliminary observations, symptoms seem to be worse in pods that could have had contact with the soil directly or via rain splash. This disease cannot be detected until pods are split open, which has potential to reduce lima bean quality at harvest. Further monitoring should be conducted to quantify yield impacts and develop appropriate preventative and curative techniques.

End-point definition and trial design to advance tuberculosis vaccine development.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has negatively impacted the global TB burden of disease indicators. If the targets of TB mortality and incidence reduction set by the international community are to be met, new more effective adult and adolescent TB vaccines are urgently needed. There are several new vaccine candidates at different stages of clinical development. Given the limited funding for vaccine development, it is crucial that trial designs are as efficient as possible. Prevention of infection (POI) approaches offer an attractive opportunity to accelerate new candidate vaccines to advance into large and expensive prevention of disease (POD) efficacy trials. However, POI approaches are limited by imperfect current tools to measure Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection end-points. POD trials need to carefully consider the type and number of microbiological tests that define TB disease and, if efficacy against subclinical (asymptomatic) TB disease is to be tested, POD trials need to explore how best to define and measure this form of TB. Prevention of recurrence trials are an alternative approach to generate proof of concept for efficacy, but optimal timing of vaccination relative to treatment must still be explored. Novel and efficient approaches to efficacy trial design, in addition to an increasing number of candidates entering phase 2-3 trials, would accelerate the long-standing quest for a new TB vaccine.

The role of large wild animals in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Two major environmental challenges of our time are responding to climate change and reversing biodiversity decline. Interventions that simultaneously tackle both challenges are highly desirable. To date, most studies aiming to find synergistic interventions for these two challenges have focused on protecting or restoring vegetation and soils but overlooked how conservation or restoration of large wild animals might influence the climate mitigation and adaptation potential of ecosystems. However, interactions between large animal conservation and climate change goals may not always be positive. Here, we review wildlife conservation and climate change mitigation in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We elucidate general principles about the biome types where, and mechanisms by which, positive synergies and negative trade-offs between wildlife conservation and climate change mitigation are likely. We find that large animals have the greatest potential to facilitate climate change mitigation at a global scale via three mechanisms: changes in fire regime, especially in previously low-flammability biomes with a new or intensifying fire regime, such as mesic grasslands or warm temperate woodlands; changes in terrestrial albedo, particularly where there is potential to shift from closed canopy to open canopy systems at higher latitudes; and increases in vegetation and soil carbon stocks, especially through a shift towards below-ground carbon pools in temperate, tropical and sub-tropical grassland ecosystems. Large animals also contribute to ecosystem adaptation to climate change by promoting complexity of trophic webs, increasing habitat heterogeneity, enhancing plant dispersal, increasing resistance to abrupt ecosystem change and through microclimate modification.

A Multi-Site Analysis of the Prevalence of Food Insecurity in the United States, before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic profoundly affected food systems including food security. Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted food security is important to provide support and identify long-term impacts and needs. OBJECTIVE: The National Food Access and COVID research Team (NFACT) was formed to assess food security over different US study sites throughout the pandemic, using common instruments and measurements. This study presents results from 18 study sites across 15 states and nationally over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A validated survey instrument was developed and implemented in whole or part through an online survey of adults across the sites throughout the first year of the pandemic, representing 22 separate surveys. Sampling methods for each study site were convenience, representative, or high-risk targeted. Food security was measured using the USDA 6-item module. Food security prevalence was analyzed using ANOVA by sampling method to assess statistically significant differences. RESULTS: Respondents (n = 27,168) indicate higher prevalence of food insecurity (low or very low food security) since the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with before the pandemic. In nearly all study sites, there is a higher prevalence of food insecurity among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC), households with children, and those with job disruptions. The findings demonstrate lingering food insecurity, with high prevalence over time in sites with repeat cross-sectional surveys. There are no statistically significant differences between convenience and representative surveys, but a statistically higher prevalence of food insecurity among high-risk compared with convenience surveys. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive study demonstrates a higher prevalence of food insecurity in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These impacts were prevalent for certain demographic groups, and most pronounced for surveys targeting high-risk populations. Results especially document the continued high levels of food insecurity, as well as the variability in estimates due to the survey implementation method.

Global urban population exposure to extreme heat.

Increased exposure to extreme heat from both climate change and the urban heat island effect-total urban warming-threatens the sustainability of rapidly growing urban settlements worldwide. Extreme heat exposure is highly unequal and severely impacts the urban poor. While previous studies have quantified global exposure to extreme heat, the lack of a globally accurate, fine-resolution temporal analysis of urban exposure crucially limits our ability to deploy adaptations. Here, we estimate daily urban population exposure to extreme heat for 13,115 urban settlements from 1983 to 2016. We harmonize global, fine-resolution (0.05°), daily temperature maxima and relative humidity estimates with geolocated and longitudinal global urban population data. We measure the average annual rate of increase in exposure (person-days/year-1) at the global, regional, national, and municipality levels, separating the contribution to exposure trajectories from urban population growth versus total urban warming. Using a daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature threshold of 30 °C, global exposure increased nearly 200% from 1983 to 2016. Total urban warming elevated the annual increase in exposure by 52% compared to urban population growth alone. Exposure trajectories increased for 46% of urban settlements, which together in 2016 comprised 23% of the planet's population (1.7 billion people). However, how total urban warming and population growth drove exposure trajectories is spatially heterogeneous. This study reinforces the importance of employing multiple extreme heat exposure metrics to identify local patterns and compare exposure trends across geographies. Our results suggest that previous research underestimates extreme heat exposure, highlighting the urgency for targeted adaptations and early warning systems to reduce harm from urban extreme heat exposure.

How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079-189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3-85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253-10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.

Atypical presentations in the hospitalised older adult testing positive for SARS-CoV-2: a retrospective observational study in Glasgow, Scotland.

Introduction: Understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 manifests itself in older adults was unknown at the outset of the pandemic. We undertook a retrospective observational analysis of all patients admitted to older people's services with confirmed COVID-19 in one of the largest hospitals in Europe. We detail presenting symptoms, prognostic features and vulnerability to nosocomial spread. Methods: We retrospectively collected data for each patient with a positive SARSCoV-2 RT PCR between 18th March and the 20th April 2020 in a department of medicine for the elderly in Glasgow. Results: 222 patients were included in our analysis. Age ranged from 56 to 99 years (mean = 82) and 148 were female (67%). 119 patients had a positive swab for SARS-CoV-2 within the first 14 days of admission, only 32% of these patients presented with primarily a respiratory type illness. 103 patients (46%) tested positive after 14 days of admission - this was felt to represent likely nosocomial infection. 95 patients (43%) died by day 30 after diagnosis. Discussion: This data indicates that older people were more likely to present with non-respiratory symptoms. High clinical frailty scores, severe lymphopenia and cumulative comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. Several contributing factors will have led to nosocomial transmission.

The Design and Development of a Multi-HBV Antigen Encoded in Chimpanzee Adenoviral and Modified Vaccinia Ankara Viral Vectors; A Novel Therapeutic Vaccine Strategy against HBV.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection affects 257 million people globally. Current therapies suppress HBV but viral rebound occurs on cessation of therapy; novel therapeutic strategies are urgently required. To develop a therapeutic HBV vaccine that can induce high magnitude T cells to all major HBV antigens, we have developed a novel HBV vaccine using chimpanzee adenovirus (ChAd) and modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) viral vectors encoding multiple HBV antigens. ChAd vaccine alone generated very high magnitude HBV specific T cell responses to all HBV major antigens. The inclusion of a shark Invariant (SIi) chain genetic adjuvant significantly enhanced the magnitude of T-cells against HBV antigens. Compared to ChAd alone vaccination, ChAd-prime followed by MVA-boost vaccination further enhanced the magnitude and breadth of the vaccine induced T cell response. Intra-cellular cytokine staining study showed that HBV specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were polyfunctional, producing combinations of IFNγ, TNF-α, and IL-2. In summary, we have generated genetically adjuvanted ChAd and MVA vectored HBV vaccines with the potential to induce high-magnitude T cell responses through a prime-boost therapeutic vaccination approach. These pre-clinical studies pave the way for new studies of HBV therapeutic vaccination in humans with chronic hepatitis B infection.

A highly conserved complete accessory Escherichia coli type III secretion system 2 is widespread in bloodstream isolates of the ST69 lineage.

Bacterial type III secretion systems (T3SSs) play an important role in pathogenesis of Gram-negative infections. Enteropathogenic and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli contain a well-defined T3SS but in addition a second T3SS termed E. coli T3SS 2 (ETT2) has been described in a number of strains of E. coli. The majority of pathogenic E. coli contain elements of a genetic locus encoding ETT2, but which has undergone significant mutational attrition rendering it without predicted function. Only a very few strains have been reported to contain an intact ETT2 locus. To investigate the occurrence of the ETT2 locus in strains of human pathogenic E. coli, we carried out genomic sequencing of 162 isolates obtained from patient blood cultures in Scotland. We found that 22 of 26 sequence type (ST) 69 isolates from this collection contained an intact ETT2 together with an associated eip locus which encodes putative secreted ETT2 effectors as well as eilA, a gene encoding a putative transcriptional regulator of ETT2 associated genes. Using a reporter gene for eilA activation, we defined conditions under which this gene was differentially activated. Analysis of published E. coli genomes with worldwide representation showed that ST69 contained an intact ETT2 in these strains as well. The conservation of the genes encoding ETT2 in human pathogenic ST69 strains strongly suggests it has importance in infection, although its exact functional role remains obscure.

Environmental heterogeneity and commodity sharing in smallholder agroecosystems.

Smallholder farmers undertake a number of strategies to cope with climate shocks in a community. The sharing of resources across households constitutes one coping mechanism when environmental shocks differentially impact households. This paper investigates commodity sharing dynamics among households in eight communities in an environmentally heterogeneous highland-lowland area in central Kenya. We use survey data and meteorological data to test whether commodity sharing, measured at the household level by net inflow of commodities, varies across a regional precipitation gradient, and we reveal how sharing fluctuates with rainfall over the course of a year. We find both precipitation and income to be significant predictors of households' net value of shared commodities. Specifically, farmers who live in drier areas with less income are more likely to receive more commodities than they give. We also find that the length of time a household has been established in the area is significantly related to commodity sharing. Further, commodity sharing follows the pattern of harvest and food storage over the course of the year, with households giving the most commodities at times when food storage levels are higher, that is, post-harvest. The study sheds light on the relationship between commodity sharing as a coping mechanism and environmental heterogeneity in a region prone to seasonal food insecurity.

Postexposure Prophylaxis With rVSV-ZEBOV Following Exposure to a Patient With Ebola Virus Disease Relapse in the United Kingdom: An Operational, Safety, and Immunogenicity Report.

BACKGROUND: In October 2015, 65 people came into direct contact with a healthcare worker presenting with a late reactivation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the United Kingdom. Vaccination was offered to 45 individuals with an initial assessment of high exposure risk. METHODS: Approval for rapid expanded access to the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-Zaire Ebola virus (rVSV-ZEBOV) vaccine as an unlicensed emergency medicine was obtained from the relevant authorities. An observational follow-up study was carried out for 1 year following vaccination. RESULTS: Twenty-six of 45 individuals elected to receive vaccination between 10 and 11 October 2015 following written informed consent. By day 14, 39% had seroconverted, increasing to 87% by day 28 and 100% by 3 months, although these responses were not always sustained. Neutralizing antibody responses were detectable in 36% by day 14 and 73% at 12 months. Common side effects included fatigue, myalgia, headache, arthralgia, and fever. These were positively associated with glycoprotein-specific T-cell but not immunoglobulin (Ig) M or IgG antibody responses. No severe vaccine-related adverse events were reported. No one exposed to the virus became infected. CONCLUSIONS: This paper reports the use of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine given as an emergency intervention to individuals exposed to a patient presenting with a late reactivation of EVD. The vaccine was relatively well tolerated, but a high percentage developed a fever ≥37.5°C, necessitating urgent screening for Ebola virus, and a small number developed persistent arthralgia.

Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626.

Intact tropical forests, free from substantial anthropogenic influence, store and sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon but are currently neglected in international climate policy. We show that between 2000 and 2013, direct clearance of intact tropical forest areas accounted for 3.2% of gross carbon emissions from all deforestation across the pantropics. However, full carbon accounting requires the consideration of forgone carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation. When these factors were considered, the net carbon impact resulting from intact tropical forest loss between 2000 and 2013 increased by a factor of 6 (626%), from 0.34 (0.37 to 0.21) to 2.12 (2.85 to 1.00) petagrams of carbon (equivalent to approximately 2 years of global land use change emissions). The climate mitigation value of conserving the 549 million ha of tropical forest that remains intact is therefore significant but will soon dwindle if their rate of loss continues to accelerate.

Dual RNA-seq in Streptococcus pneumoniae Infection Reveals Compartmentalized Neutrophil Responses in Lung and Pleural Space.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the dominant cause of community-acquired pneumonia worldwide. Invasion of the pleural space is common and results in increased mortality. We set out to determine the bacterial and host factors that influence invasion of the pleural space. In a murine model of pneumococcal infection, we isolated neutrophil-dominated samples of bronchoalveolar and pleural fluid containing bacteria 48 hours after infection. Using dual RNA sequencing (RNA-seq), we characterized bacterial and host transcripts that were differentially regulated between these compartments and bacteria in broth and resting neutrophils, respectively. Pleural and lung samples showed upregulation of genes involved in the positive regulation of neutrophil extravasation but downregulation of genes mediating bacterial killing. Compared to the lung samples, cells within the pleural space showed marked upregulation of many genes induced by type I interferons, which are cytokines implicated in preventing bacterial transmigration across epithelial barriers. Differences in the bacterial transcripts between the infected samples and bacteria grown in broth showed the upregulation of genes in the bacteriocin locus, the pneumococcal surface adhesin PsaA, and the glycopeptide resistance gene vanZ; the gene encoding the ClpP protease was downregulated in infection. One hundred sixty-nine intergenic putative small bacterial RNAs were also identified, of which 43 (25.4%) small RNAs had been previously described. Forty-two of the small RNAs were upregulated in pleura compared to broth, including many previously identified as being important in virulence. Our results have identified key host and bacterial responses to invasion of the pleural space that can be potentially exploited to develop alternative antimicrobial strategies for the prevention and treatment of pneumococcal pleural disease.IMPORTANCE The factors that regulate the passage of bacteria between different anatomical compartments are unclear. We have used an experimental model of infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae to examine the host and bacterial factors involved in the passage of bacteria from the lung to the pleural space. The transcriptional profile of host and bacterial cells within the pleural space and lung was analyzed using deep sequencing of the entire transcriptome using the technique of dual RNA-seq. We found significant differences in the host and bacterial RNA profiles in infection, which shed light on the key factors that allow passage of this bacterium into the pleural space.

Age-targeted tuberculosis vaccination in China and implications for vaccine development: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is the leading single-pathogen cause of death worldwide, and China has the third largest number of cases worldwide. New tools, such as new vaccines, are needed to meet WHO tuberculosis goals. Tuberculosis vaccine development strategies mostly target infants or adolescents, but given China's ageing epidemic, vaccinating older people might be important. We modelled the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines in China targeting adolescents (15-19 years) or older adults (60-64 years) with varying vaccine characteristics to inform strategic vaccine development. METHODS: A Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model was calibrated to age-stratified demographic and epidemiological data from China. Varying scenarios of vaccine implementation (age targeting [adolescents or older adults] and coverage [30% or 70%]) and characteristics (efficacy [40%, 60%, or 80%], duration of protection [10 years or 20 years], and host infection status required for efficacy [pre-infection, post-infection in latency, post-infection in latency or recovered, or pre-infection and post-infection]) were assessed. Primary outcomes were tuberculosis incidence and mortality rate reduction in 2050 in each vaccine scenario compared with the baseline (no new vaccine) scenario and cumulative number needed to vaccinate (NNV) per case or death averted, 2025-50. FINDINGS: By 2050, results suggest that 74·5% (uncertainty interval [UI] 70·2-78·6) of incident tuberculosis cases in China would occur in people aged 65 years or older, and 75·1% (66·8-80·7) of all cases would be due to reactivation, rather than new infection. All vaccine profiles delivered to older adults had higher population-level impact (reduction of incidence and mortality rates) and lower NNV per case and per death averted than if delivered to adolescents. For an intermediate vaccine scenario of 60% efficacy, 10-year protection, and 70% coverage, the reduction of tuberculosis incidence rates with older adult vaccination was 1·9 times (UI 1·5-2·6) to 157·5 times (119·3-225·6) greater than with adolescent vaccination, and the NNV was 0·011 times (0·008-0·014) to 0·796 times (0·632-0·970) lower. Furthermore, with older adult vaccination, post-infection vaccines provided substantially greater mortality and incidence rate reductions than pre-infection vaccines. INTERPRETATION: Adolescent-targeted tuberculosis vaccines, the focus of many development plans, would have only a small impact in ageing, reactivation-driven epidemics such as those in China. Instead, an efficacious post-infection vaccine delivered to older adults will be crucial to maximise population-level impact in this setting and would provide an important contribution towards achieving WHO goals. Older adults should be included in tuberculosis vaccine clinical development and implementation planning. FUNDING: Aeras and UK MRC.