Amplified drying in South Asian summer monsoon precipitation due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols.

A declining trend in Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP) in the latter half of the 20th century is a scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issue. Heavy aerosol loading over India is one of the key factors in modulating the ISMP. Using the state-of-the-state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, ECHAM6-HAMMOZ, the impacts of South Asian anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon precipitation were investigated against: (1) 2010 La Niña (excess monsoon), (2) 2015 El Niño (deficit monsoon) in comparison to (3) normal monsoon 2016. Sensitivity simulations were designed with 48% enhancement in South Asian SO2 emissions based on a trend estimated from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations during 2006-2017. The model simulations showed that sulfate aerosols reduce ISMP by 27.5%-43.3 %, while simulations without sulfate loading enhanced ISMP by 23% in 2010 La Niña and reduction by 35% in 2015 El Niño. This paper reports that sulfate aerosols loading over India reduce precipitation by aerosol-induced direct and indirect effects by inducing atmospheric cooling, weakening in the convection, and reduction in moisture transport to Indian landmass. This paper emphasizes the necessity of alternate use of energy to reduce sulfate aerosol emissions to solve water issues in South Asia.

Comparison of ozonesonde measurements in the upper troposphere and lower Stratosphere in Northern India with reanalysis and chemistry-climate-model data.

The variability and trend of ozone (O3) in the Upper troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) over the Asian region needs to be accurately quantified. Ozone in the UTLS radiatively heats this region and cools the upper parts of the stratosphere. This results in an impact on relative humidity, static stability in the UTLS region and tropical tropopause temperature. A major challenge for understanding ozone chemistry in the UTLS is sparse observations and thus the representation of precursor gases in model emission inventories. Here, we evaluate ozonesonde measurements during August 2016 at Nainital, in the Himalayas, against ozone from multiple reanalyses and the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ model. We find that compared to measurements both reanalyses and ECHAM6-HAMMOZ control simulation overestimate ozone mixing ratios in the troposphere (20 ppb) and in the UTLS (55 ppb). We performed sensitivity simulations using the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ model for a 50% reduction in the emission of (1) NOx and (2) VOCs. The model simulations with NOX reduction agree better with the ozonesonde observations in the lower troposphere and in the UTLS. Thus, neither reanalyses nor ECHAM6-HAMMOZ results can reproduce observed O3 over the South Asian region. For a better representation of O3 in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ model, NOX emission should be reduced by 50% in the emission inventory. A larger number of observations of ozone and precursor gases over the South Asian region would improve the assessment of ozone chemistry in models.

The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts.

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871-2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

Elevated aerosol layer over South Asia worsens the Indian droughts.

Droughts have become more severe and recurrent over the Indian sub-continent during the second half of the twentieth century, leading to more severe hydro-climatic and socio-economic impacts over one of the most densely populated parts of the world. So far, droughts have mostly been connected to circulation changes concomitant with the abnormal warming over the Pacific Ocean, prevalently known as "El Niño". Here, exploiting observational data sets and a series of dedicated sensitivity experiments, we show that the severity of droughts during El Niño is amplified (17%) by changes in aerosols. The model experiments simulate the transport of boundary layer aerosols from South Asian countries to higher altitudes (12-18 km) where they form the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) (~ 60-120°E, 20-40°N). During El Niño, the anomalous overturning circulation from the East Asian region further enriches the thickness of aerosol layers in the ATAL over the northern part of South Asia. The anomalous aerosol loading in the ATAL reduces insolation over the monsoon region, thereby exacerbating the severity of drought by further weakening the monsoon circulation. Future increases in industrial emissions from both East and South Asia will lead to a wider and thicker elevated aerosol layer in the upper troposphere, potentially amplifying the severity of droughts.

Anomalous low tropospheric column ozone over eastern India during the severe drought event of monsoon 2002: a case study.

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: The present study is an attempt to examine some of the probable causes of the unusually low tropospheric column ozone observed over eastern India during the exceptional drought event in July 2002. METHOD: We examined horizontal wind and omega (vertical velocity) anomalies over the Indian region to understand the large-scale dynamical processes which prevailed in July 2002. We also examined anomalies in tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO), an important ozone precursor, and observed low CO mixing ratio in the free troposphere in 2002 over eastern India. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: It was found that instead of a normal large-scale ascent, the air was descending in the middle and lower troposphere over a vast part of India. This configuration was apparently responsible for the less convective upwelling of precursors and likely caused less photochemical ozone formation in the free troposphere over eastern India in July 2002. CONCLUSION: The insight gained from this case study will hopefully provide a better understanding of the process controlling the distribution of the tropospheric ozone over the Indian region.