Informing the pandemic response: the role of the WHO's COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update.

On 31 December 2019, the Municipal Health Commission of Wuhan, China, reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases. On 5 January 2020, the WHO publicly released a Disease Outbreak News (DON) report, providing information about the pneumonia cases, implemented response interventions, and WHO's risk assessment and advice on public health and social measures. Following 9 additional DON reports and 209 daily situation reports, on 17 August 2020, WHO published the first edition of the COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update (WEU). On 1 September 2023, the 158th edition of the WEU was published on WHO's website, marking its final issue. Since then, the WEU has been replaced by comprehensive global epidemiological updates on COVID-19 released every 4 weeks. During the span of its publication, the webpage that hosts the WEU and the COVID-19 Operational Updates was accessed annually over 1.4 million times on average, with visits originating from more than 100 countries. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the WEU process, from data collection to publication, focusing on the scope, technical details, main features, underlying methods, impact and limitations. We also discuss WHO's experience in disseminating epidemiological information on the COVID-19 pandemic at the global level and provide recommendations for enhancing collaboration and information sharing to support future health emergency responses.

Assessing the accuracy of health facility typology in representing the availability of health services: a case study in Mali.

INTRODUCTION: Using health facility types as a measure of service availability is a common approach in international standards for health system policy and planning. However, this proxy may not accurately reflect the actual availability of specific health services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the reliability of health facility typology as an indicator of specific health service availability and explore whether certain facility types consistently provide particular services. DESIGN: We analysed a comprehensive dataset containing information from 1725 health facilities in Mali. To uncover and visualise patterns within the dataset, we used two analytical techniques: Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Between-Class Analysis. These analyses allowed us to quantitatively measure the influence of health facility types on the variation in health service provisioning. Additionally, we developed and calculated a Consistency Index, which assesses the consistency of a health facility type in providing specific health services. By examining various health facilities and services, we sought to determine the accuracy of facility types as indicators of service availability. SETTING: The study focused on the health system in Mali as a case study. RESULTS: Our findings indicate that using health facility types as a proxy for service availability in Mali is not an accurate representation. We observed that most of the variation in service provision does not stem from differences between facility types but rather within facility types. This suggests that relying solely on health facility typology may lead to an incomplete understanding of health service availability. CONCLUSIONS: These results have significant implications for health policy and planning. The reliance on health facility types as indicators for health system policy and planning should be reconsidered. A more nuanced and evidence-based understanding of health service availability is crucial for effective health policy and planning, as well as for the assessment and monitoring of health systems.

Disseminating information on acute public health events globally: experiences from the WHO's Disease Outbreak News.

WHO works, on a daily basis, with countries globally to detect, prepare for and respond to acute public health events. A vital component of a health response is the dissemination of accurate, reliable and authoritative information. The Disease Outbreak News (DON) reports are a key mechanism through which WHO communicates on acute public health events to the public. The decision to produce a DON report is taken on a case-by-case basis after evaluating key criteria, and the subsequent process of producing a DON report is highly standardised to ensure the robustness of information. DON reports have been published since 1996, and up to 2022 over 3000 reports have been published. Between 2018 and 2022, the most frequently published DON reports relate to Ebola virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, yellow fever, polio and cholera. The DON web page is highly visited with a readership of over 2.6 million visits per year, on average. The DON report structure has evolved over time, from a single paragraph in 1996 to a detailed report with seven sections currently. WHO regularly reviews the DON report process and structure for improvements. In the last 25 years, DON reports have played a unique role in rapidly disseminating information on acute public health events to health actors and the public globally. They have become a key information source for the global public health response to the benefit of individuals and communities.

Implementing Joint External Evaluations of the International Health Regulations (2005) capacities in all countries in the WHO African region: process challenges, lessons learnt and perspectives for the future.

Following the West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak (2013-2016), the Joint External Evaluation (JEE) is one of the three voluntary components recommended by the WHO for evaluating the International Health Regulations (2005) capacities in countries. Here, we share experience implementing JEEs in all 47 countries in the WHO African region. In February 2016, the United Republic of Tanzania (Mainland) was the first country globally to conduct a JEE. By April 2022, JEEs had been conducted in all 47 countries plus in the island of Zanzibar. A total of 360 subject matter experts (SMEs) from 88 organisations were deployed 607 times. Despite availability of guidelines, the process had to be contextualised while avoiding jeopardising the quality and integrity of the findings. Key challenges were: inadequate understanding of the process by in-country counterparts; competing country priorities; limited time for validating subnational capacities; insufficient availability of SMEs for biosafety and biosecurity, antimicrobial resistance, points of entry, chemical events and radio-nuclear emergencies; and inadequate financing to fill gaps identified. Key points learnt were: importance of country leadership and ownership; conducting orientation workshops before the self-assessment; availability of an external JEE expert to support the self-assessment; the skills, attitudes and leadership competencies of the team lead; identifying national experts as SMEs for future JEEs to promote capacity building and experience sharing; the centrality of involving One Health stakeholders from the beginning to the end of the process; and the need for dedicated staff for planning, coordination, implementation and timely report writing. Moving forward, it is essential to draw from this learning to plan future JEEs. Finally, predictable financing is needed immediately to fill gaps identified.

A community-based contact isolation strategy to reduce the spread of Ebola virus disease: an analysis of the 2018-2020 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

INTRODUCTION: Despite tremendous progress in the development of diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for Ebola virus disease (EVD), challenges remain in the implementation of holistic strategies to rapidly curtail outbreaks. We investigated the effectiveness of a community-based contact isolation strategy to limit the spread of the disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). METHODS: We did a quasi-experimental comparison study. Eligible participants were EVD contacts registered from 12 June 2019 to 18 May 2020 in Beni and Mabalako Health Zones. Intervention group participants were isolated to specific community sites for the duration of their follow-up. Comparison group participants underwent contact tracing without isolation. The primary outcome was measured as the reproduction number (R) in the two groups. Secondary outcomes were the delay from symptom onset to isolation and case management, case fatality rate (CFR) and vaccination uptake. RESULTS: 27 324 EVD contacts were included in the study; 585 in the intervention group and 26 739 in the comparison group. The intervention group generated 32 confirmed cases (5.5%) in the first generation, while the comparison group generated 87 (0.3%). However, the 32 confirmed cases arising from the intervention contacts did not generate any additional transmission (R=0.00), whereas the 87 confirmed cases arising from the comparison group generated 99 secondary cases (R=1.14). The average delay between symptom onset and case isolation was shorter (1.3 vs 4.8 days; p<0.0001), CFR lower (12.5% vs 48.4%; p=0.0001) and postexposure vaccination uptake higher (86.0% vs 56.8%; p<0.0001) in the intervention group compared with the comparison group. A significant difference was also found between intervention and comparison groups in survival rate at the discharge of hospitalised confirmed patients (87.9% vs 47.7%, respectively; p=0.0004). CONCLUSION: The community-based contact isolation strategy used in DRC shows promise as a potentially effective approach for the rapid cessation of EVD transmission, highlighting the importance of rapidly implemented, community-oriented and trust-building control strategies.

Description of the first global outbreak of mpox: an analysis of global surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In May 2022, several countries with no history of sustained community transmission of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) notified WHO of new mpox cases. These cases were soon followed by a large-scale outbreak, which unfolded across the world, driven by local, in-country transmission within previously unaffected countries. On July 23, 2022, WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Here, we aim to describe the main epidemiological features of this outbreak, the largest reported to date. METHODS: In this analysis of global surveillance data we analysed data for all confirmed mpox cases reported by WHO Member States through the global surveillance system from Jan 1, 2022, to Jan 29, 2023. Data included daily aggregated numbers of mpox cases by country and a case reporting form (CRF) containing information on demographics, clinical presentation, epidemiological exposure factors, and laboratory testing. We used the data to (1) describe the key epidemiological and clinical features of cases; (2) analyse risk factors for hospitalisation (by multivariable mixed-effects binary logistic regression); and (3) retrospectively analyse transmission trends. Sequencing data from GISAID and GenBank were used to analyse monkeypox virus (MPXV) genetic diversity. FINDINGS: Data from 82 807 cases with submitted CRFs were included in the analysis. Cases were primarily due to clade IIb MPXV (mainly lineage B.1, followed by lineage A.2). The outbreak was driven by transmission among males (73 560 [96·4%] of 76 293 cases) who self-identify as men who have sex with men (25 938 [86·9%] of 29 854 cases). The most common reported route of transmission was sexual contact (14 941 [68·7%] of 21 749). 3927 (7·3%) of 54 117 cases were hospitalised, with increased odds for those aged younger than 5 years (adjusted odds ratio 2·12 [95% CI 1·32-3·40], p=0·0020), aged 65 years and older (1·54 [1·05-2·25], p=0·026), female cases (1·61 [1·35-1·91], p<0·0001), and for cases who are immunosuppressed either due to being HIV positive and immunosuppressed (2·00 [1·68-2·37], p<0·0001), or other immunocompromising conditions (3·47 [1·84-6·54], p=0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Continued global surveillance allowed WHO to monitor the epidemic, identify risk factors, and inform the public health response. The outbreak can be attributed to clade IIb MPXV spread by newly described modes of transmission. FUNDING: WHO Contingency Fund for Emergencies. TRANSLATIONS: For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Impact of multimodal strategies including a pay for performance strategy in the improvement of infection prevention and control practices in healthcare facilities during an Ebola virus disease outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Strategy to mitigate various Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks are focusing on Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) capacity building, supportive supervision and IPC supply donation. This study was conducted to assess the impact of a Pay for Performance Strategy (PPS) in improving IPC performance in healthcare facilities (HF) in context of the 2018-2019 Nord Kivu/ Democratic Republic of the Congo EVD outbreak. METHODS: A quasi-experimental study was conducted analysing the impact of a PPS on the IPC performance. HF were selected following the inclusion criteria upon informed consent from the facility manager and the National Department of Health. Initial and process assessment of IPC performance was conducted by integrating response teams using a validated IPC assessment tool for HF. A bundle of interventions was then implemented in the different HF including training of health workers, donation of IPC kits, supportive supervision during the implementation of IPC activities, and monetary reward. IPC practices in HF were assessment every two weeks during the intervention period to measure the impact. The IPC assessment tool had 34 questions aggregated in 8 different thematic areas: triage and isolation capacity, IPC committee in HF, hand hygiene, PPE, decontamination and sterilization, linen management, hospital environment and Waste management. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and analytical approaches according to assumptions. R software (version 4.0.3) was used for all the analyses and a p-value of 0.05 was considered as the threshold for statistically significant results. RESULTS: Among 69 HF involved in this study, 48 were private facilities and 21 state facilities. The median baseline IPC score was 44% (IQR: 21-65%); this IPC median score reached respectively after 2, 4, 6 and 8 weeks 68% (IQR: 59-76%), 79% (71-84%), 76% (68-85%) and 79% (74-85%). The improvement of IPC score was statistically significative. Spearman's rank-order correlation revealed the associated between proportion of trained HW and IPC score performance after 8 weeks of interventions (rs = .280, p-value = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Pay for Performance Strategy was proved effective in improving healthcare facilities capacity in infection prevention and control practice in context of 2018 EVD outbreak in Nord Kivu. However, the strategy for long-term sustainability of IPC needs further provision. More studies are warranted on the HW and patients' perceptions toward IPC program implementation in context of Nord Kivu Province.

How prepared is the world? Identifying weaknesses in existing assessment frameworks for global health security through a One Health approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed faults in the way we assess preparedness and response capacities for public health emergencies. Existing frameworks are limited in scope, and do not sufficiently consider complex social, economic, political, regulatory, and ecological factors. One Health, through its focus on the links among humans, animals, and ecosystems, is a valuable approach through which existing assessment frameworks can be analysed and new ways forward proposed. Although in the past few years advances have been made in assessment tools such as the International Health Regulations Joint External Evaluation, a rapid and radical increase in ambition is required. To sufficiently account for the range of complex systems in which health emergencies occur, assessments should consider how problems are defined across stakeholders and the wider sociopolitical environments in which structures and institutions operate. Current frameworks do little to consider anthropogenic factors in disease emergence or address the full array of health security hazards across the social-ecological system. A complex and interdependent set of challenges threaten human, animal, and ecosystem health, and we cannot afford to overlook important contextual factors, or the determinants of these shared threats. Health security assessment frameworks should therefore ensure that the process undertaken to prioritise and build capacity adheres to core One Health principles and that interventions and outcomes are assessed in terms of added value, trade-offs, and cobenefits across human, animal, and environmental health systems.

Innovative approach to monitor performance of integrated disease surveillance and response after the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone: lessons from the field.

BACKGROUND: Supervision of healthcare workers improves performance if done in a supportive and objective manner. Regular supervision is a support function of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy and allows systematic monitoring of IDSR implementation. Starting 2015, WHO and other development partners supported the Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MoHS) to revitalize IDSR in Sierra Leone and to monitor progress through supportive supervision assessments. We report on the findings of these assessments. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study where six longitudinal assessments were conducted in randomly selected health facilities. Health facilities assessed were 71 in February 2016, 99 in July 2016, 101 in May 2017, 126 in August 2018, 139 in February 2019 and 156 in August 2021. An electronic checklist based on selected core functions of IDSR was developed and uploaded onto tablets using the Open Data Kit (ODK) platform. Supervision teams interviewed health care workers, reviewed documents and made observations in health facilities. Supervision books were used to record feedback and corrective actions. Data from the supervisory visits was downloaded from ODK platform, cleaned and analysed. Categorical data was summarized using frequencies and proportions while means and medians were used for continuous variables. Z test was used to test for differences in proportions. RESULTS: Completeness of IDSR reporting improved from 84.5% in 2016 to 96% in 2021 (11.5% points; 95% CI 3.6, 21.9; P-value 0.003). Timeliness of IDSR reports improved from 80.3 to 92% (11.7% points; 95% CI 2.4, 22.9; P-value 0.01). There was significant improvement in health worker knowledge of IDSR concepts and tools, in availability of IDSR standard case definition posters and reporting tools and in data analysis practices. Availability of vaccines and temperature monitoring tools in health facilities also improved significantly but some indicators dropped such as availability of IDSR technical guidelines and malaria testing kits and drugs. CONCLUSION: Supervision using electronic tool contributed to health systems strengthening through longitudinal tracking of core IDSR indicators and other program indicators such as essential malaria commodities and availability and status of routine vaccines. Supervision using electronic tools should be extended to other programs.

Investigation of and Strategies to Control the Final Cluster of the 2018-2020 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Background: On April 10, 2020, while the independent committee of the International Health Regulation was meeting to decide whether the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Demogratic Republic of Congo still constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, a new confirmed case was reported in the city of Beni, the last epicenter of the epidemic. This study aimed to understand the source of this cluster and learn from the implemented control strategies for improved response in the future. Methods: We conducted a combined epidemiological and genomic investigation to understand the origins and dynamics of transmission within this cluster and describe the strategy that successfully controlled the outbreak. Results: Eight cases were identified as belonging to this final cluster. A total of 1028 contacts were identified. Whole-genome sequencing revealed that all cases belonged to the same cluster, the closest sequence to which was identified as a case from the Beni area with symptom onset in July 2019 and a difference of just 31 nucleotides. Outbreak control measures included community confinement of high-risk contacts. Conclusions: This study illustrates the high risk of additional flare-ups in the period leading to the end-of-outbreak declaration and the importance of maintaining enhanced surveillance and confinement activities to rapidly control Ebola outbreaks.

Predicting COVID-19 Infections in Eswatini Using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method.

COVID-19 country spikes have been reported at varying temporal scales as a result of differences in the disease-driving factors. Factors affecting case load and mortality rates have varied between countries and regions. We investigated the association between socio-economic, weather, demographic and health variables with the reported cases of COVID-19 in Eswatini using the maximum likelihood estimation method for count data. A generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model was fitted with the data comprising 15 covariates to predict COVID-19 risk in the whole of Eswatini. The results show that the variables that were key determinants in the spread of the disease were those that included the proportion of elderly above 55 years at 98% (95% CI: 97-99%) and the proportion of youth below the age of 35 years at 8% (95% CI: 1.7-38%) with a pseudo R-square of 0.72. However, in the early phase of the virus when cases were fewer, results from the Poisson regression showed that household size, household density and poverty index were associated with reported COVID-19 cases in the country. We then produced a disease-risk map of predicted COVID-19 in Eswatini using variables that were selected by the regression model at a 5% significance level. The map could be used by the country to plan and prioritize health interventions against COVID-19. The identified areas of high risk may be further investigated to find out the risk amplifiers and assess what could be done to prevent them.

Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling to Assess Malaria Seasonality and Monthly Incidence Risk in Eswatini.

Eswatini is on the brink of malaria elimination and had however, had to shift its target year to eliminate malaria on several occasions since 2015 as the country struggled to achieve its zero malaria goal. We conducted a Bayesian geostatistical modeling study using malaria case data. A Bayesian distributed lags model (DLM) was implemented to assess the effects of seasonality on cases. A second Bayesian model based on polynomial distributed lags was implemented on the dataset to improve understanding of the lag effect of environmental factors on cases. Results showed that malaria increased during the dry season with proportion 0.051 compared to the rainy season with proportion 0.047 while rainfall of the preceding month (Lag2) had negative effect on malaria as it decreased by proportion - 0.25 (BCI: - 0.46, - 0.05). Night temperatures of the preceding first and second month were significantly associated with increased malaria in the following proportions: at Lag1 0.53 (BCI: 0.23, 0.84) and at Lag2 0.26 (BCI: 0.01, 0.51). Seasonality was an important predictor of malaria with proportion 0.72 (BCI: 0.40, 0.98). High malaria rates were identified for the months of July to October, moderate rates in the months of November to February and low rates in the months of March to June. The maps produced support-targeted malaria control interventions. The Bayesian geostatistical models could be extended for short-term and long-term forecasting of malaria supporting-targeted response both in space and time for effective elimination.

Ebola virus disease nosocomial infections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a descriptive study of cases during the 2018-2020 outbreak.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics of nosocomial cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between July 2018 and May 2020 in order to inform future interventions. METHODS: Nosocomial cases of EVD were identified during outbreak response surveillance, and a retrospective analysis of cases was conducted according to demographic characteristics and type of health facility (HF). RESULTS: Of 3481 cases of EVD, 579 (16.6%) were nosocomial. Of these, 332 cases occurred in women (57.3%). Patients and visitors accounted for 419 cases (72.4%), of which 79 (18.9%) were aged 6-≤18 years and 108 (25.8%) were aged ≤5 years. Health workers (HWs) accounted for the remaining 160 (27.6%) nosocomial cases. The case fatality rate (CFR) for HWs (66/160, 41.3%) was significantly lower than the CFR for patients and visitors (292/419, 69.7%) (P<0.001). The CFR was higher among cases aged 6-≤18 years (54/79, 68.4%) and ≤5 years (89/108, 82.4%). Referral HFs (>39 beds) had the highest prevalence of nosocomial EVD (148/579, 25.6%). Among HFs with at least one case of nosocomial infection, 50.0% (98/196) were privately owned. CONCLUSIONS: Nurses and traditional healers should be targeted for infection prevention and control training, and supportive supervision should be provided to HFs to mitigate EVD transmission.

The first 8 months of COVID-19 pandemic in three West African countries: leveraging lessons learned from responses to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak.

Experience gained from responding to major outbreaks may have influenced the early coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response in several countries across Africa. We retrospectively assessed whether Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three West African countries at the epicentre of the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak, leveraged the lessons learned in responding to COVID-19 following the World Health Organization's (WHO) declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We found relatively lower incidence rates across the three countries compared to many parts of the globe. Time to case reporting and laboratory confirmation also varied, with Guinea and Liberia reporting significant delays compared to Sierra Leone. Most of the selected readiness measures were instituted before confirmation of the first case and response measures were initiated rapidly after the outbreak confirmation. We conclude that the rapid readiness and response measures instituted by the three countries can be attributed to their lessons learned from the devastating Ebola outbreak, although persistent health systems weaknesses and the unique nature of COVID-19 continue to challenge control efforts.