Concomitant Bacteremia in Adults With Severe Falciparum Malaria.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 6% of children hospitalized with severe falciparum malaria in Africa are also bacteremic. It is therefore recommended that all children with severe malaria should receive broad-spectrum antibiotics in addition to parenteral artesunate. Empirical antibiotics are not recommended currently for adults with severe malaria. METHODS: Blood cultures were performed on sequential prospectively studied adult patients with strictly defined severe falciparum malaria admitted to a single referral center in Vietnam between 1991 and 2003. RESULTS: In 845 Vietnamese adults with severe falciparum malaria admission blood cultures were positive in 9 (1.07%: 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-1.76%); Staphylococcus aureus in 2, Streptococcus pyogenes in 1, Salmonella Typhi in 3, Non-typhoid Salmonella in 1, Klebsiella pneumoniae in 1, and Haemophilus influenzae type b in 1. Bacteremic patients presented usually with a combination of jaundice, acute renal failure, and high malaria parasitemia. Four bacteremic patients died compared with 108 (12.9%) of 836 nonbacteremic severe malaria patients (risk ratio, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.62-7.29). In patients with >20% parasitemia the prevalence of concomitant bacteremia was 5.2% (4/76; 95% CI, .2-10.3%) compared with 0.65% (5/769; 0.08-1.2%) in patients with <20% parasitemia, a risk ratio of 8.1 (2.2-29.5). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to children, the prevalence of concomitant bacteremia in adults with severe malaria is low. Administration of empirical antibiotics, in addition to artesunate, is warranted in the small subgroup of patients with very high parasitemias, emphasizing the importance of quantitative blood smear microscopy assessment, but it is not indicated in most adults with severe falciparum malaria.

Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan.

Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease have been documented in Japan since 1963. This disease is primarily caused by the two closely related serotypes of Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Here, we analyse Japanese virologic and syndromic surveillance time-series data from 1982 to 2015. As in some other countries in the Asia Pacific region, EV-A71 in Japan has a 3 year cyclical component, whereas CV-A16 is predominantly annual. We observe empirical signatures of an inhibitory interaction between the serotypes; virologic lines of evidence suggest they may indeed interact immunologically. We fit the time series to mechanistic epidemiological models: as a first-order effect, we find the data consistent with single-serotype susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics. We then extend the modelling to incorporate an inhibitory interaction between serotypes. Our results suggest the existence of a transient cross-protection and possible asymmetry in its strength such that CV-A16 serves as a stronger forcing on EV-A71. Allowing for asymmetry yields accurate out-of-sample predictions and the directionality of this effect is consistent with the virologic literature. Confirmation of these hypothesized interactions would have important implications for understanding enterovirus epidemiology and informing vaccine development. Our results highlight the general implication that even subtle interactions could have qualitative impacts on epidemic dynamics and predictability.

A Double-blind, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of Lactobacillus acidophilus for the Treatment of Acute Watery Diarrhea in Vietnamese Children.

BACKGROUND: Probiotics are the most frequently prescribed treatment for children hospitalized with diarrhea in Vietnam. We were uncertain of the benefits of probiotics for the treatment of acute watery diarrhea in Vietnamese children. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of children hospitalized with acute watery diarrhea in Vietnam. Children meeting the inclusion criteria (acute watery diarrhea) were randomized to receive either 2 daily oral doses of 2 × 10 CFUs of a local probiotic containing Lactobacillus acidophilus or placebo for 5 days as an adjunct to standard of care. The primary end point was time from the first dose of study medication to the start of the first 24-hour period without diarrhea. Secondary outcomes included the total duration of diarrhea and hospitalization, daily stool frequency, treatment failure, daily fecal concentrations of rotavirus and norovirus, and Lactobacillus colonization. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty children were randomized into each study group. The median time from the first dose of study medication to the start of the first 24-hour diarrhea-free period was 43 hours (interquartile range, 15-66 hours) in the placebo group and 35 hours (interquartile range, 20-68 hours) in the probiotic group (acceleration factor 1.09 [95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.51]; P = 0.62). There was also no evidence that probiotic treatment was efficacious in any of the predefined subgroups nor significantly associated with any secondary end point. CONCLUSIONS: This was a large double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in which the probiotic underwent longitudinal quality control. We found under these conditions that L. acidophilus was not beneficial in treating children with acute watery diarrhea.

Prognostic Models for 9-Month Mortality in Tuberculous Meningitis.

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis. We developed and validated prognostic models for 9-month mortality in adults with TBM, with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Methods: We included 1699 subjects from 4 randomized clinical trials and 1 prospective observational study conducted at 2 major referral hospitals in Southern Vietnam from 2001-2015. Modeling was based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. The final prognostic models were validated internally and temporally and were displayed using nomograms and a Web-based app (https://thaole.shinyapps.io/tbmapp/). Results: 951 HIV-uninfected and 748 HIV-infected subjects with TBM were included; 219 of 951 (23.0%) and 384 of 748 (51.3%) died during 9-month follow-up. Common predictors for increased mortality in both populations were higher Medical Research Council (MRC) disease severity grade and lower cerebrospinal fluid lymphocyte cell count. In HIV-uninfected subjects, older age, previous tuberculosis, not receiving adjunctive dexamethasone, and focal neurological signs were additional risk factors; in HIV-infected subjects, lower weight, lower peripheral blood CD4 cell count, and abnormal plasma sodium were additional risk factors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the final prognostic models were 0.77 (HIV-uninfected population) and 0.78 (HIV-infected population), demonstrating better discrimination than the MRC grade (AUC, 0.66 and 0.70) or Glasgow Coma Scale score (AUC, 0.68 and 0.71) alone. Conclusions: The developed models showed good performance and could be used in clinical practice to assist physicians in identifying patients with TBM at high risk of death and with increased need of supportive care.

Aetiology of acute meningoencephalitis in Cambodian children, 2010-2013.

Acute meningoencephalitis (AME) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality in children in developing countries. Clinical specimens were collected from children presenting with AME at two Cambodian paediatric hospitals to determine the major aetiologies associated with AME in the country. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood samples were screened by molecular and cell culture methods for a range of pathogens previously associated with AME in the region. CSF and serum (acute and convalescent) were screened for antibodies to arboviruses such as Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), dengue virus (DENV), and chikungunya virus (CHIKV). From July 2010 through December 2013, 1160 children (one month to 15 years of age) presenting with AME to two major paediatric hospitals were enroled into the study. Pathogens associated with AME were identified using molecular diagnostics, cell culture and serology. According to a diagnostic algorithm, a confirmed or highly probable aetiologic agent was detected in 35.0% (n=406) of AME cases, with a further 9.2% (total: 44.2%, n=513) aetiologies defined as suspected. JEV (24.4%, n=283) was the most commonly identified pathogen followed by Orientia tsutsugamushi (4.7%, n=55), DENV (4.6%, n=53), enteroviruses (3.5%, n=41), CHIKV (2.0%, n=23) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (1.6%, n=19). The majority of aetiologies identified for paediatric AME in Cambodia were vaccine preventable and/or treatable with appropriate antimicrobials.

Treatment Response in Enteric Fever in an Era of Increasing Antimicrobial Resistance: An Individual Patient Data Analysis of 2092 Participants Enrolled into 4 Randomized, Controlled Trials in Nepal.

BACKGROUND.: Enteric fever, caused by Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A, is the leading cause of bacterial febrile disease in South Asia. METHODS.: Individual data from 2092 patients with enteric fever randomized into 4 trials in Kathmandu, Nepal, were pooled. All trials compared gatifloxacin with 1 of the following comparator drugs: cefixime, chloramphenicol, ofloxacin, or ceftriaxone. Treatment outcomes were evaluated according to antimicrobial if S. Typhi/Paratyphi were isolated from blood. We additionally investigated the impact of changing bacterial antimicrobial susceptibility on outcome. RESULTS.: Overall, 855 (41%) patients had either S. Typhi (n = 581, 28%) or S. Paratyphi A (n = 274, 13%) cultured from blood. There were 139 (6.6%) treatment failures with 1 death. Except for the last trial with ceftriaxone, the fluoroquinolone gatifloxacin was associated with equivalent or better fever clearance times and lower treatment failure rates in comparison to all other antimicrobials. However, we additionally found that the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) against fluoroquinolones have risen significantly since 2005 and were associated with increasing fever clearance times. Notably, all organisms were susceptible to ceftriaxone throughout the study period (2005-2014), and the MICs against azithromycin declined, confirming the utility of these alternative drugs for enteric fever treatment. CONCLUSION.: The World Health Organization and local government health ministries in South Asia still recommend fluoroquinolones for enteric fever. This policy should change based on the evidence provided here. Rapid diagnostics are urgently required given the large numbers of suspected enteric fever patients with a negative culture.

Clinical presentations, diagnosis, mortality and prognostic markers of tuberculous meningitis in Vietnamese children: a prospective descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculous meningitis in adults is well characterized in Vietnam, but there are no data on the disease in children. We present a prospective descriptive study of Vietnamese children with TBM to define the presentation, course and characteristics associated with poor outcome. METHODS: A prospective descriptive study of 100 consecutively admitted children with TBM at Pham Ngoc Thach Hospital, Ho Chi Minh City. Cox and logistic regression were used to identify factors associated with risk of death and a combined endpoint of death or disability at treatment completion. RESULTS: The study enrolled from October 2009 to March 2011. Median age was 32.5 months; sex distribution was equal. Median duration of symptoms was 18.5 days and time from admission to treatment initiation was 11 days. Fifteen of 100 children died, 4 were lost to follow-up, and 27/81 (33 %) of survivors had intermediate or severe disability upon treatment completion. Microbiological confirmation of disease was made in 6 %. Baseline characteristics associated with death included convulsions (HR 3.46, 95CI 1.19-10.13, p = 0.02), decreased consciousness (HR 22.9, 95CI 3.01-174.3, p < 0.001), focal neurological deficits (HR 15.7, 95CI 1.67-2075, p = 0.01), Blantyre Coma Score (HR 3.75, 95CI 0.99-14.2, p < 0.001) and CSF protein, lactate and glucose levels. Neck stiffness, MRC grade (children aged >5 years) and hydrocephalus were also associated with the combined endpoint of death or disability. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculous meningitis in Vietnamese children has significant mortality and morbidity. There is significant delay in diagnosis; interventions that increase the speed of diagnosis and treatment initiation are likely to improve outcomes.

Molecular epidemiology of human enterovirus 71 at the origin of an epidemic of fatal hand, foot and mouth disease cases in Cambodia.

Human enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). EV-A71 circulates in many countries and has caused large epidemics, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, since 1997. In April 2012, an undiagnosed fatal disease with neurological involvement and respiratory distress occurred in young children admitted to the Kantha Bopha Children's Hospital in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Most died within a day of hospital admission, causing public panic and international concern. In this study, we describe the enterovirus (EV) genotypes that were isolated during the outbreak in 2012 and the following year. From June 2012 to November 2013, 312 specimens were collected from hospitalized and ambulatory patients and tested by generic EV and specific EV-A71 reverse transcription PCR. EV-A71 was detected in 208 clinical specimens while other EVs were found in 32 patients. The VP1 gene and/or the complete genome were generated. Our phylogenetic sequencing analysis demonstrated that 80 EV-A71 strains belonged to the C4a subgenotype and 3 EV-A71 strains belonged to the B5 genotype. Furthermore, some lineages of EV-A71 were found to have appeared in Cambodia following separate introductions from neighboring countries. Nineteen EV A (CV-A6 and CV-A16), 9 EV B (EV-B83, CV-B3, CV-B2, CV-A9, E-31, E-2 and EV-B80) and 4 EV C (EV-C116, EV-C96, CV-A20 and Vaccine-related PV-3) strains were also detected. We found no molecular markers of disease severity. We report here that EV-A71 genotype C4 was the main etiological agent of a large outbreak of HFMD and particularly of severe forms associated with central nervous system infections. The role played by other EVs in the epidemic could not be clearly established.

Global epidemiology of avian influenza A H5N1 virus infection in humans, 1997-2015: a systematic review of individual case data.

Avian influenza A H5N1 viruses have caused many, typically severe, human infections since the first human case was reported in 1997. However, no comprehensive epidemiological analysis of global human cases of H5N1 from 1997 to 2015 exists. Moreover, few studies have examined in detail the changing epidemiology of human H5N1 cases in Egypt, especially given the outbreaks since November, 2014, which have the highest number of cases ever reported worldwide in a similar period. Data on individual patients were collated from different sources using a systematic approach to describe the global epidemiology of 907 human H5N1 cases between May, 1997, and April, 2015. The number of affected countries rose between 2003 and 2008, with expansion from east and southeast Asia, then to west Asia and Africa. Most cases (67·2%) occurred from December to March, and the overall case-fatality risk was 483 (53·5%) of 903 cases which varied across geographical regions. Although the incidence in Egypt has increased dramatically since November, 2014, compared with the cases beforehand, there were no significant differences in the fatality risk, history of exposure to poultry, history of patient contact, and time from onset to hospital admission in the recent cases.

Correction: Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001975.].

Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: China accounted for 87% (9.8 million/11.3 million) of all hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases reported to WHO during 2010-2014. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is responsible for most of the severe HFMD cases. Three EV71 vaccines recently demonstrated good efficacy in children aged 6-71 mo. Here we assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine pediatric EV71 vaccination in China. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We characterized the economic and health burden of EV71-associated HFMD (EV71-HFMD) in China using (i) the national surveillance database, (ii) virological surveillance records from all provinces, and (iii) a caregiver survey on the household costs and health utility loss for 1,787 laboratory-confirmed pediatric cases. Using a static model parameterized with these data, we estimated the effective vaccine cost (EVC, defined as cost/efficacy or simply the cost of a 100% efficacious vaccine) below which routine pediatric vaccination would be considered cost-effective. We performed the base-case analysis from the societal perspective with a willingness-to-pay threshold of one times the gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) and an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed uncertainty analysis by (i) accounting for the uncertainty in the risk of EV71-HFMD due to missing laboratory data in the national database, (ii) excluding productivity loss of parents and caregivers, (iii) increasing the willingness-to-pay threshold to three times GDPpc, (iv) increasing the discount rate to 6%, and (v) accounting for the proportion of EV71-HFMD cases not registered by national surveillance. In each of these scenarios, we performed probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for parametric uncertainty in our estimates of the risk of EV71-HFMD and the expected costs and health utility loss due to EV71-HFMD. Routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be cost-saving if the all-inclusive EVC is below US$10.6 (95% CI US$9.7-US$11.5) and would remain cost-effective if EVC is below US$17.9 (95% CI US$16.9-US$18.8) in the base case, but these ceilings could be up to 66% higher if all the test-negative cases with missing laboratory data are EV71-HFMD. The EVC ceiling is (i) 10%-14% lower if productivity loss of parents/caregivers is excluded, (ii) 58%-84% higher if the willingness-to-pay threshold is increased to three times GDPpc, (iii) 14%-19% lower if the discount rate is increased to 6%, and (iv) 36% (95% CI 23%-50%) higher if the proportion of EV71-HFMD registered by national surveillance is the same as that observed in the three EV71 vaccine phase III trials. The validity of our results relies on the following assumptions: (i) self-reported hospital charges are a good proxy for the opportunity cost of care, (ii) the cost and health utility loss estimates based on laboratory-confirmed EV71-HFMD cases are representative of all EV71-HFMD cases, and (iii) the long-term average risk of EV71-HFMD in the future is similar to that registered by national surveillance during 2010-2013. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to no vaccination, routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be very cost-effective in China if the cost of immunization (including all logistical, procurement, and administration costs needed to confer 5 y of vaccine protection) is below US$12.0-US$18.3, depending on the choice of vaccine among the three candidates. Given that the annual number of births in China has been around 16 million in recent years, the annual costs for routine pediatric EV71 vaccination at this cost range should not exceed US$192-US$293 million. Our results can be used to determine the optimal vaccine when the prices of the three vaccines are known.

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.

Intensified Antituberculosis Therapy in Adults with Tuberculous Meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculous meningitis is often lethal. Early antituberculosis treatment and adjunctive treatment with glucocorticoids improve survival, but nearly one third of patients with the condition still die. We hypothesized that intensified antituberculosis treatment would enhance the killing of intracerebral Mycobacterium tuberculosis organisms and decrease the rate of death among patients. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults and HIV-uninfected adults with a clinical diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis who were admitted to one of two Vietnamese hospitals. We compared a standard, 9-month antituberculosis regimen (which included 10 mg of rifampin per kilogram of body weight per day) with an intensified regimen that included higher-dose rifampin (15 mg per kilogram per day) and levofloxacin (20 mg per kilogram per day) for the first 8 weeks of treatment. The primary outcome was death by 9 months after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 817 patients (349 of whom were HIV-infected) were enrolled; 409 were randomly assigned to receive the standard regimen, and 408 were assigned to receive intensified treatment. During the 9 months of follow-up, 113 patients in the intensified-treatment group and 114 patients in the standard-treatment group died (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 1.22; P=0.66). There was no evidence of a significant differential effect of intensified treatment in the overall population or in any of the subgroups, with the possible exception of patients infected with isoniazid-resistant M. tuberculosis. There were also no significant differences in secondary outcomes between the treatment groups. The overall number of adverse events leading to treatment interruption did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (64 events in the standard-treatment group and 95 events in the intensified-treatment group, P=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Intensified antituberculosis treatment was not associated with a higher rate of survival among patients with tuberculous meningitis than standard treatment. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Li Ka Shing Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN61649292.).

The Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS): A Strategic Approach to Studying Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases.

The effect of newly emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in human populations can be potentially catastrophic, and large-scale investigations of such diseases are highly challenging. The monitoring of emergence events is subject to ascertainment bias, whether at the level of species discovery, emerging disease events, or disease outbreaks in human populations. Disease surveillance is generally performed post hoc, driven by a response to recent events and by the availability of detection and identification technologies. Additionally, the inventory of pathogens that exist in mammalian and other reservoirs is incomplete, and identifying those with the potential to cause disease in humans is rarely possible in advance. A major step in understanding the burden and diversity of zoonotic infections, the local behavioral and demographic risks of infection, and the risk of emergence of these pathogens in human populations is to establish surveillance networks in populations that maintain regular contact with diverse animal populations, and to simultaneously characterize pathogen diversity in human and animal populations. Vietnam has been an epicenter of disease emergence over the last decade, and practices at the human/animal interface may facilitate the likelihood of spillover of zoonotic pathogens into humans. To tackle the scientific issues surrounding the origins and emergence of zoonotic infections in Vietnam, we have established The Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS). This countrywide project, in which several international institutions collaborate with Vietnamese organizations, is combining clinical data, epidemiology, high-throughput sequencing, and social sciences to address relevant one-health questions. Here, we describe the primary aims of the project, the infrastructure established to address our scientific questions, and the current status of the project. Our principal objective is to develop an integrated approach to the surveillance of pathogens circulating in both human and animal populations and assess how frequently they are exchanged. This infrastructure will facilitate systematic investigations of pathogen ecology and evolution, enhance understanding of viral cross-species transmission events, and identify relevant risk factors and drivers of zoonotic disease emergence.

Differences in the Epidemiology of Human Cases of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) and A(H5N1) Viruses Infection.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic potential of avian influenza viruses A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) remains an unresolved but critically important question. METHODS: We compared the characteristics of sporadic and clustered cases of human H5N1 and H7N9 infection, estimated the relative risk of infection in blood-related contacts, and the reproduction number (R). RESULTS: We assembled and analyzed data on 720 H5N1 cases and 460 H7N9 cases up to 2 November 2014. The severity and average age of sporadic/index cases of H7N9 was greater than secondary cases (71% requiring intensive care unit admission vs 33%, P = .007; median age 59 years vs 31, P < .001). We observed no significant differences in the age and severity between sporadic/index and secondary H5N1 cases. The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval (CI) for R was 0.12 for H5N1 and 0.27 for H7N9. A higher proportion of H5N1 infections occurred in clusters (20%) compared to H7N9 (8%). The relative risk of infection in blood-related contacts of cases compared to unrelated contacts was 8.96 for H5N1 (95% CI, 1.30, 61.86) and 0.80 for H7N9 (95% CI, .32, 1.97). CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with an ascertainment bias towards severe and older cases for sporadic H7N9 but not for H5N1. The lack of evidence for ascertainment bias in sporadic H5N1 cases, the more pronounced clustering of cases, and the higher risk of infection in blood-related contacts, support the hypothesis that susceptibility to H5N1 may be limited and familial. This analysis suggests the potential pandemic risk may be greater for H7N9 than H5N1.