Characterization and impact of non-canonical WNT signaling on outcomes of urothelial carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Non-canonical WNT family (WNT5A pathway) signaling via WNT5A through ROR1 and its partner, ROR2, or Frizzled2 (FZD2) is linked to processes driving tumorigenesis and therapy resistance. We utilized a large dataset of urothelial carcinoma (UC) tumors to characterize non-canonical WNT signaling through WNT5A, ROR1, ROR2, or FZD2 expression. METHODS: NextGen Sequencing of DNA (592 genes or WES)/RNA (WTS) was performed for 4125 UC tumors submitted to Caris Life Sciences. High and low expression of WNT5A, ROR1, ROR2, and FZD2 was defined as ≥ top and

Differential Responses to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors are Governed by Diverse Mismatch Repair Gene Alterations.

PURPOSE: The response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) colorectal cancer and endometrial cancer is variable. Here, we explored the differential response to ICIs according to different mismatch repair alterations. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Colorectal cancer (N = 13,701) and endometrial cancer (N = 3,315) specimens were tested at Caris Life Sciences. Median overall survival (mOS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier. The prediction of high-, intermediate-, and low-affinity epitopes by tumor mutation burden (TMB) values was conducted using R-squared (R2). RESULTS: Compared with mutL (MLH1 and PMS2) co-loss, the mOS was longer in mutS (MSH2 and MSH6) co-loss in all colorectal cancer (54.6 vs. 36 months; P = 0.0.025) and endometrial cancer (81.5 vs. 48.2 months; P < 0.001) patients. In ICI-treated patients, the mOS was longer in mutS co-loss in colorectal cancer [not reached (NR) vs. 36 months; P = 0.011). In endometrial cancer, the mOS was NR vs. 42.2 months; P = 0.711]. The neoantigen load (NAL) in mutS co-loss compared with mutL co-loss was higher in colorectal cancer (high-affinity epitopes: 25.5 vs. 19; q = 0.017, intermediate: 39 vs. 32; q = 0.004, low: 87.5 vs. 73; q < 0.001) and endometrial cancer (high-affinity epitopes: 15 vs. 11; q = 0.002, intermediate: 27.5 vs. 19; q < 0.001, low: 59 vs. 41; q < 0.001), respectively. R2 ranged from 0.25 in mutS co-loss colorectal cancer to 0.95 in mutL co-loss endometrial cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with mutS co-loss experienced longer mOS in colorectal cancer and endometrial cancer and better response to ICIs in colorectal cancer. Among all explored biomarkers, NAL was higher in mutS co-loss and may be a potential driving factor for the observed better outcomes. TMB did not reliably predict NAL.

Kinematic metrics and surgeon experience in robotic cholecystectomies: a pilot study on breaking down technical performance.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have correlated surgical skill measured by video-based assessment with improved clinical outcomes. Certain automated measures of operative performance in robotic surgery can be gathered beyond video review called objective performance indicators (OPIs). We explore the relationship between OPIs, surgeon experience, and postoperative recovery, hypothesizing that more efficient dissection will be associated with experience. METHODS: Fifty-six robotic cholecystectomies between February 2022 and March 2023 were recorded at a large tertiary referral center. Surgeon experience and clinical outcomes data from the EMR were obtained for all 56 cases with 10 completing the QOL survey. Two steps of robotic cholecystectomies were reviewed: dissection of Calot's triangle (DCT) and dissection of the gallbladder from the liver (DGL). Postoperative recovery was measured using the SF-36 well-being survey. Univariate analysis was conducted using Pearson's coefficient. RESULTS: Increased operative experience was associated with more efficient camera and instrument movements. DCT had 7 and DGL had 31 of 41 OPIs that correlated with experience. With respect to DGL, more experienced surgeons had reduced step duration and instrument path length and increased camera and instrument speeds. CONCLUSIONS: Several OPIs correlate with surgical experience and may form the basis of more instructive feedback for trainees and less experienced surgeons in improving intraoperative technique.

Noninvasive Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist in Infants With Bronchiolitis: Respiratory Outcomes in a Single-Center, Retrospective Cohort, 2016-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To describe our experience of using noninvasive neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NIV-NAVA) in infants with bronchiolitis, its association with the evolution of respiratory effort, and PICU outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively curated, high-frequency electronic database. SETTING: A PICU in a university-affiliated maternal-child health center in Canada. PATIENTS: Patients younger than 2 years old who were admitted with a diagnosis of acute bronchiolitis and treated with NIV-NAVA from October 2016 to June 2018. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patient characteristics, as well as respiratory and physiologic parameters, including electrical diaphragmatic activity (Edi), were extracted from the electronic database. Respiratory effort was estimated using the modified Wood Clinical Asthma Score (mWCAS) and the inspiratory Edi. A comparison in the respiratory effort data was made between the 2 hours before and 2 hours after starting NIV-NAVA. In the two seasons, 64 of 205 bronchiolitis patients were supported with NIV-NAVA. These 64 patients had a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 52 days (32-92 d), and there were 36 of 64 males. Treatment with NIV-NAVA was used after failure of first-tier noninvasive respiratory support; 25 of 64 patients (39%) had at least one medical comorbidity. NIV-NAVA initiation was associated with a moderate decrease in mWCAS from 3.0 (IQR, 2.5-3.5) to 2.5 (IQR, 2.0-3.0; p < 0.001). NIV-NAVA initiation was also associated with a statistically significant decrease in Edi ( p < 0.01). However, this decrease was only clinically relevant in infants with a 2-hour baseline Edi greater than 20 µV; here, the before and after Edi was 44 µV (IQR, 33-54 µV) compared with 27 µV (IQR, 21-36 µV), respectively ( p < 0.001). Overall, six of 64 patients (9%) required endotracheal intubation. CONCLUSIONS: In this single-center retrospective cohort, in infants with bronchiolitis who were considered to have failed first-tier noninvasive respiratory support, the use of NIV-NAVA was associated with a rapid decrease in respiratory effort and a 9% intubation rate.

Molecular Characterization of TFE3-Rearranged Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Comparative Study With Papillary and Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinomas.

TFE3-rearranged renal cell carcinoma (rRCC) is a rare subtype of renal cell carcinomas belonging to the MiT family translocation RCC. To further elucidate the co-alterations that occur along with TFE3 fusions in rRCC, we characterized the genomic, transcriptional, and immune landscapes in comparison to clear cell (ccRCC) and papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC). Next-generation sequencing of RNA (whole transcriptome) and DNA (592-gene panel or whole exome) for rRCC (N = 20), pRCC (N = 20), and ccRCC samples (N = 392) was performed. Patients with rRCC were significantly younger and more frequently female (median 44.5 years, 75.0% female) as compared with patients with pRCC (68.5 years, 25.0% female; P < .05) and ccRCC (62.0 years, 27.8% female; P < .05). A total of 8 unique fusion partners were observed, including a novel fusion with SRRM2::TFE3 in 2 patients. ccRCC exhibited significantly higher mutation rates of VHL (0% rRCC, 0% pRCC, 78.7% ccRCC; P < .05) and PBMR1 (0% rRCC, 5.0% pRCC, 49.4% ccRCC; P < .05). The genomic landscapes of rRCC were sparse with no mutations occurring with a prevalence higher than 10% other than pTERT (18.2% rRCC, 0% pRCC, 9.2% ccRCC). rRCC were associated with significantly less M1 macrophages (0.8%) as compared with pRCC (1.4%) and ccRCC (2.7%) (P < .05), suggesting a cold tumor-immune microenvironment. However, rRCC were more commonly PD-L1+ (rRCC 50%, pRCC 19.0%, ccRCC 12.2%; P < .05). Gene set enrichment analysis showed that rRCC are enriched in genes related to oxidative phosphorylation when compared with both ccRCC and pRCC. Despite having a colder tumor-immune microenvironment than pRCC and ccRCC, increased PDL1+ rates in rRCC suggest a potential benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy.

Differential outcomes and immune checkpoint inhibitor response among endometrial cancer patients with MLH1 hypermethylation versus MLH1 "Lynch-like" mismatch repair gene mutation.

OBJECTIVES: To identify differential survival outcomes and immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) response in MLH1 hypermethylated versus MLH1 mutated ("Lynch-like") endometrial tumors and determine whether their molecular profiles can elucidate the differential outcomes. METHODS: 1673 mismatch repair deficient endometrial tumors were analyzed by next-generation sequencing and whole transcriptome sequencing (Caris Life Sciences, Phoenix, AZ). PD-L1, ER, and PR were tested by immunohistochemistry and immune cell infiltrates were calculated using MCP-counter. Significance was determined using Chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests and adjusted for multiple comparisons. Overall survival (OS) was depicted using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. RESULTS: The endometrial cancer cohort comprised 89.2% patients with MLH1 hypermethylated tumors and 10.8% with MLH1 mutated tumors, with median ages of 67 and 60 years, respectively (p < 0.01). Patients with MLH1 hypermethylated tumors had significantly worse OS and trended toward worse OS following ICI treatment than patients with MLH1 mutated tumors. The immune microenvironment of MLH1 hypermethylated relative to MLH1 mutated was characterized by decreased PD-L1 positivity, immune checkpoint gene expression, immune cell infiltration, T cell inflamed scores, and interferon gamma (IFNγ) scores. MLH1 hypermethylation was also associated with decreased mutation rates in TP53 and DNA damage repair genes, but increased rates of JAK1, FGFR2, CCND1, and PTEN mutations, as well as increased ER and PR positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Endometrial cancer patients with MLH1 hypermethylation display significantly decreased survival and discrepant immunotherapy responses compared to patients with MLH1 mutated tumors, which was associated with differential mutational profiles, a more immune cold phenotype, and increased ER/PR expression in MLH1 hypermethylated tumors. Providers may consider early transition from single agent ICI to a multi-agent regimen or hormonal therapy for patients with MLH1 hypermethylated tumors.

Treatment outcome in an SI model with evolutionary resistance: a Darwinian model for the evolution of resistance.

We consider a Darwinian (evolutionary game theoretic) version of a standard susceptible-infectious SI model in which the resistance of the disease causing pathogen to a treatment that prevents death to infected individuals is subject to evolutionary adaptation. We determine the existence and stability of all equilibria, both disease-free and endemic, and use the results to determine conditions under which the treatment will succeed or fail. Of particular interest are conditions under which a successful treatment in the absence of resistance adaptation (i.e. one that leads to a stable disease-free equilibrium) will succeed or fail when pathogen resistance is adaptive. These conditions are determined by the relative breadths of treatment effectiveness and infection transmission rate distributions as functions of pathogen resistance.

Semi-infectious particles contribute substantially to influenza virus within-host dynamics when infection is dominated by spatial structure.

Influenza is an ribonucleic acid virus with a genome that comprises eight segments. Experiments show that the vast majority of virions fail to express one or more gene segments and thus cannot cause a productive infection on their own. These particles, called semi-infectious particles (SIPs), can induce virion production through complementation when multiple SIPs are present in an infected cell. Previous within-host influenza models did not explicitly consider SIPs and largely ignore the potential effects of coinfection during virus infection. Here, we constructed and analyzed two distinct models explicitly keeping track of SIPs and coinfection: one without spatial structure and the other implicitly considering spatial structure. While the model without spatial structure fails to reproduce key aspects of within-host influenza virus dynamics, we found that the model implicitly considering the spatial structure of the infection process makes predictions that are consistent with biological observations, highlighting the crucial role that spatial structure plays during an influenza infection. This model predicts two phases of viral growth prior to the viral peak: a first phase driven by fully infectious particles at the initiation of infection followed by a second phase largely driven by coinfections of fully infectious particles and SIPs. Fitting this model to two sets of data, we show that SIPs can contribute substantially to viral load during infection. Overall, the model provides a new interpretation of the in vivo exponential viral growth observed in experiments and a mechanistic explanation for why the production of large numbers of SIPs does not strongly impede viral growth. Being simple and predictive, our model framework serves as a useful tool to understand coinfection dynamics in spatially structured acute viral infections.

The Genomic Landscape of Vulvar Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Vulvar squamous cell cancer (VSC) accounts for 90% of vulvar cancers. Next-generation sequencing studies of VSC imply human papillomavirus (HPV) and p53 status play separate roles in carcinogenesis and prognosis. We sought to describe the genomic landscape and analyze the immunologic profiles of VSC with respect to HPV and p53 status. A total of 443 VSC tumors underwent tumor profiling. Next-generation sequencing was performed on genomic DNA isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples. PD-L1, microsatellite instability were tested by fragment analysis, IHC, and next-generation sequencing. Tumor mutational burden-high was defined as >10 mutations per MB. HPV 16/18 positive (HPV+) status was determined using whole exome sequencing on 105 samples. Three cohorts were identified from 105 samples with known HPV: HPV+, HPV-/p53wt, and HPV-/p53mt. Where HPV and p53 status were examined, TP53 mutations were exclusive of HPV+ tumors. In all, 37% of samples were HPV+. Among the 66 HPV- tumors, 52 (78.8%) were HPV-/p53mt and 14 (21.2%) were HPV-/p53wt. The HPV-/p53wt cohort had a higher rate of mutations in the PI3KCA gene (42.9% HPV-/p53wt vs 26.3% HPV+ vs. 5.8% HPV-/p53mt, q =0.028) and alterations in the PI3K/AkT/mTOR pathway (57.1% HPV-/p53wt vs. 34.2% HPV+ vs. 7.7% HPV-/p53mt, q =0.0386) than the other 2 cohorts. Ninety-eight VSC tumors with HPV16/18 information underwent transcriptomic analysis and immune deconvolution method. No differences were observed in immune profiles. The HPV-/p53wt VSC tumors had significantly higher rates of mutations in the PI3KCA gene and alterations in the PI3K/AkT/mTOR pathway, a potential target that merits further investigation in this subgroup.

HER2+ endometrioid endometrial cancer possesses distinct molecular and immunologic features associated with a more active immune microenvironment and worse prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: HER2 status is not routinely evaluated in endometrioid endometrial cancer (E-EMCA), though it is frequently overexpressed or amplified in high grade E-EMCA and uterine serous carcinoma. Defining characteristics and survival outcomes of HER2+ E-EMCA could reveal subsets of patients who may benefit from targeted therapies. METHODS: 2927 E-EMCA tumors from the Caris Life Sciences database were analyzed by next-generation sequencing and whole exome sequencing, whole transcriptome sequencing, and immunohistochemistry for molecular and genomic features in a CLIA/CAP-certified laboratory (Caris Life Sciences, Phoenix, AZ). HER2 status was determined by transcriptomic cutoff extrapolated from uterine serous carcinoma. The relationship between HER2 status and patient outcomes was determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: HER2 positivity was detected in 5.47% of E-EMCA. Differences in molecular alterations based on HER2 status were most apparent in microsatellite stable (MSS) tumors, which displayed increased TP53 mutations and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and decreased PTEN and CTNNB1 mutations. HER2+ tumors had increased immune checkpoint gene expression and immune cell infiltration, particularly among MSS tumors. All HER2+ tumors displayed increased MAPK pathway activation scores (MPAS) and patients with HER2+ tumors experienced worse overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: HER2 positivity in E-EMCA corresponds with a unique molecular landscape, particularly in MSS tumors. HER2+ tumors are also associated with increased MAPK pathway activation and exhibit features of a more active immune microenvironment. These findings suggest a potential benefit of HER2 and MAPK targeted therapies as well as immunotherapies in this patient population.

Mutational analysis of microsatellite-stable gastrointestinal cancer with high tumour mutational burden: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Genomic signatures contributing to high tumour mutational burden (TMB-H) independent from mismatch-repair deficiency (dMMR) or microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) status are not well studied. We aimed to characterise molecular features of microsatellite stable (MSS) TMB-H gastrointestinal tumours. METHODS: Molecular alterations of 48 606 gastrointestinal tumours from Caris Life Sciences (CARIS) identified with next-generation sequencing were compared among MSS-TMB-H, dMMR/MSI-H, and MSS-TMB-low (L) tumours, using χ2 or Fisher's exact tests. Antitumour immune response within the tumour environment was predicted by analysing the infiltration of immune cells and immune signatures using The Cancer Genome Atlas database. The Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test were used to evaluate the impact of gene alterations on the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in MSS gastrointestinal cancers from the CARIS database, a Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort, and a Peking University Cancer Hospital cohort. FINDINGS: MSS-TMB-H was observed in 1600 (3·29%) of 48 606 tumours, dMMR/MSI-H in 2272 (4·67%), and MSS-TMB-L in 44 734 (92·03%). Gene mutations in SMAD2, MTOR, NFE2L2, RB1, KEAP1, TERT, and RASA1 might impair antitumour immune response despite TMB-H, while mutations in 16 other genes (CDC73, CTNNA1, ERBB4, EZH2, JAK2, MAP2K1, MAP2K4, PIK3R1, POLE, PPP2R1A, PPP2R2A, PTPN11, RAF1, RUNX1, STAG2, and XPO1) were related to TMB-H with enhanced antitumour immune response independent of dMMR/MSI-H, constructing a predictive model (modified TMB [mTMB]) for immune checkpoint inhibitor efficacy. Patients with any mutation in the mTMB gene signature, in comparison with patients with mTMB wildtype tumours, showed a superior survival benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors in MSS gastrointestinal cancers in the CARIS cohort (n=95, median overall survival 18·77 months [95% CI 17·30-20·23] vs 7·03 months [5·73-8·34]; hazard ratio 0·55 [95% CI 0·31-0·99], p=0·044). In addition, copy number amplification in chromosome 11q13 (eg, CCND1, FGF genes) was more prevalent in MSS-TMB-H tumours than in the dMMR/MSI-H or MSS-TMB-L subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Not all mutations related to TMB-H can enhance antitumour immune response. More composite biomarkers should be investigated (eg, mTMB signature) to tailor treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Our data also provide novel insights for the combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors and drugs targeting cyclin D1 or FGFs. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute, Gloria Borges WunderGlo Foundation, Dhont Family Foundation, Gene Gregg Pancreas Research Fund, San Pedro Peninsula Cancer Guild, Daniel Butler Research Fund, Victoria and Philip Wilson Research Fund, Fong Research Project, Ming Hsieh Research Fund, Shanghai Sailing Program, China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Mesothelin expression correlates with elevated inhibitory immune activity in patients with colorectal cancer.

The expression of the protein Mesothelin (MSLN) is highly variable in several malignancies including colorectal cancer (CRC) and high levels are associated with aggressive clinicopathological features and worse patient survival. CRC is both a common and deadly cancer; being the third most common in incidence and second most common cause of cancer related death. While systemic therapy remains the primary therapeutic option for most patients with stage IV (metastatic; m) CRC, their disease eventually becomes treatment refractory, and 85% succumb within 5 years. Microsatellite-stable (MSS) CRC tumors, which affect more than 90% of patients with mCRC, are generally refractory to immunotherapeutic interventions. In our current work, we characterize MSLN levels in CRC, specifically correlating expression with clinical outcomes in relevant CRC subtypes and explore how MSLN expression impacts the status of immune activation and suppression in the peritumoral microenvironment. High MSLN expression is highly prevalent in CMS1 and CMS4 CRC subtypes as well as in mCRC tissue and correlates with higher gene mutation rates across the patient cohorts. Further, MSLN-high patients exhibit increased M1/M2 macrophage infiltration, PD-L1 staining, immune-inhibitory gene expression, enrichment in inflammatory, TGF-ß, IL6/JAK/STAT3, IL2/STAT5 signaling pathways and mutation in KRAS and FBXW7. Together, these results suggest MSLN protein is a potential target for antigen-specific therapy and supports investigation into its tumorigenic effects to identify possible therapeutic interventions for patients with high MSLN expressing MSS CRC.

A Mean-Field Approximation of SIR Epidemics on an Erdös-Rényi Network Model.

The stochastic nature of epidemic dynamics on a network makes their direct study very challenging. One avenue to reduce the complexity is a mean-field approximation (or mean-field equation) of the dynamics; however, the classic mean-field equation has been shown to perform sub-optimally in many applications. Here, we adapt a recently developed mean-field equation for SIR epidemics on a network in continuous time to the discrete time case. With this new discrete mean-field approximation, this proof-of-concept study shows that, given the density of the network, there is a strong correspondence between the epidemics on an Erdös-Rényi network and a system of discrete equations. Through this connection, we developed a parameter fitting procedure that allowed us to use synthetic daily SIR data to approximate the underlying SIR epidemic parameters on the network. This procedure has improved accuracy in the estimation of the network epidemic parameters as the network density increases, and is extremely cheap computationally.

How the concavity of reproduction/survival trade-offs impacts the evolution of life history strategies.

Previous works using different mathematical techniques, however, show that the concavity of the trade-off relationship can alter the expected life history strategies. Thus we developed a model and found that the concavity of the reproduction-survival curve can still have a large impact on life history strategies in an ecological model with Darwinian evolution.

Within-host infectious disease models accommodating cellular coinfection, with an application to influenza.

Within-host models are useful tools for understanding the processes regulating viral load dynamics. While existing models have considered a wide range of within-host processes, at their core these models have shown remarkable structural similarity. Specifically, the structure of these models generally consider target cells to be either uninfected or infected, with the possibility of accommodating further resolution (e.g. cells that are in an eclipse phase). Recent findings, however, indicate that cellular coinfection is the norm rather than the exception for many viral infectious diseases, and that cells with high multiplicity of infection are present over at least some duration of an infection. The reality of these cellular coinfection dynamics is not accommodated in current within-host models although it may be critical for understanding within-host dynamics. This is particularly the case if multiplicity of infection impacts infected cell phenotypes such as their death rate and their viral production rates. Here, we present a new class of within-host disease models that allow for cellular coinfection in a scalable manner by retaining the low-dimensionality that is a desirable feature of many current within-host models. The models we propose adopt the general structure of epidemiological 'macroparasite' models that allow hosts to be variably infected by parasites such as nematodes and host phenotypes to flexibly depend on parasite burden. Specifically, our within-host models consider target cells as 'hosts' and viral particles as 'macroparasites', and allow viral output and infected cell lifespans, among other phenotypes, to depend on a cell's multiplicity of infection. We show with an application to influenza that these models can be statistically fit to viral load and other within-host data, and demonstrate using model selection approaches that they have the ability to outperform traditional within-host viral dynamic models. Important in vivo quantities such as the mean multiplicity of cellular infection and time-evolving reassortant frequencies can also be quantified in a straightforward manner once these macroparasite models have been parameterized. The within-host model structure we develop here provides a mathematical way forward to address questions related to the roles of cellular coinfection, collective viral interactions, and viral complementation in within-host viral dynamics and evolution.

Vacuum Furnace for Degassing Stainless-Steel Vacuum Components.

Ultra-high vacuum systems must often be constructed of materials with ultra-low outgassing rates to achieve pressure of 10-6 Pa and below. Any component placed into the ultra-high vacuum system must also be constructed of materials with ultra-low outgassing rates. Baking stainless steel vacuum components to a temperature range of 400 °C to 450 °C while under vacuum is an effective method to reduce the outgassing rate of vacuum components for use in ultra-high vacuum systems. The design, construction, and operation of a vacuum furnace capable of baking vacuum components to a temperature of 450° C while maintaining a pressure of 10-3 Pa or lower is described. The furnace has been used for extended bakes at 450 °C while maintaining pressures below 10-5 Pa. As an example, we obtained an outgassing rate of 1.2 × 10-9 Pa L s-1 for a gate valve baked for 20 days at a temperature of 420 °C.

Do fatal infectious diseases eradicate host species?

In simple SI epidemic and endemic models, three classes of incidence functions are identified for their potential to be associated with host extinction: weakly upper density-dependent incidences are never associated with host extinction. Power incidences that depend on the number of susceptibles and infectives by powers strictly between 0 and 1 are associated with initial-constellation-dependent host extinction for all parameter values. Homogeneous incidences, of which frequency-dependent incidence is a very particular case, and power incidences are associated with global host extinction for certain parameter constellations and with host survival for others. Laboratory infection experiments with salamander larvae are equally well fitted by power incidences and certain upper density-dependent incidences such as the negative binomial incidence and do not rule out homogeneous incidences such as an asymmetric frequency-dependent incidence either.

Times from Infection to Disease-Induced Death and their Influence on Final Population Sizes After Epidemic Outbreaks.

For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection). This is the case for lognormal distributions, which fit data from infection experiments involving tiger salamander larvae and ranavirus better than gamma distributions and Weibull distributions.

Optimizing U.S. mitigation strategies for the light-duty transportation sector: what we learn from a bottom-up model.

Few integrated analysis models examine significant U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emission reductions within an integrated energy system. Our analysis, using a bottom-up MARKet ALocation (MARKAL) model, found that stringent system-wide CO2 reduction targets will be required to achieve significant CO2 reductions from the transportation sector. Mitigating transportation emission reductions can result in significant changes in personal vehicle technologies, increases in vehicle fuel efficiency, and decreases in overall transportation fuel use. We analyze policy-oriented mitigation strategies and suggest that mitigation policies should be informed by the transitional nature of technology adoptions and the interactions between the mitigation strategies, and the robustness of mitigation strategies to long-term reduction goals, input assumptions, and policy and social factors. More research is needed to help identify robust policies that will achieve the best outcome in the face of uncertainties.