Opportunities for Improved Potato Late Blight Management in the Republic of Ireland: Field Evaluation of the Modified Irish Rules Crop Disease Risk Prediction Model.

Potato late blight remains the most significant disease threat of potato cultivation globally, often requiring expensive, time-consuming, and environmentally unfriendly approaches to disease management. The goal of this research was to evaluate whether an estimation of potato late blight risk based on environmental factors can be reliably used to adjust the standard potato late blight management practices and the role of cultivar resistance under growing conditions and contemporary Phytophthora infestans populations in the Republic of Ireland. The modified Irish Rules model made it possible to reduce fungicide usage by 58.7% on average, compared with current standard practices used by growers and without adversely compromising disease control and yield, with similar results achieved by the half-dose program. Host resistance levels were found to be correlated with a delay in the initiation of the epidemics, final foliar disease levels, and reduction of fungicide usage. Disease levels on the highly resistant cultivars remained low, and a clear selection pattern toward the P. infestans genotypes EU_13_A2 and EU_6_A1 was observed. An increase in the frequency of strains belonging to genotypes EU_13_A2 and EU_6_A1 was also observed to occur in the latter part of the trial growing seasons. Because of the increasingly dynamic nature of the population structure, associated with the continued evolution of the P. infestans population and the arrival of EU_36_A2 in the Republic of Ireland, routine population monitoring is necessary to ensure that potato late blight control strategies remain effective.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Multi-century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records.

Globally, few precipitation records extend to the 18th century. The England Wales Precipitation (EWP) series is a notable exception with continuous monthly records from 1766. EWP has found widespread use across diverse fields of research including trend detection, evaluation of climate model simulations, as a proxy for mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, a predictor in long-term European gridded precipitation data sets, the assessment of drought and extremes, tree-ring reconstructions and as a benchmark for other regional series. A key finding from EWP has been the multi-centennial trends towards wetter winters and drier summers. We statistically reconstruct seasonal EWP using independent, quality-assured temperature, pressure and circulation indices. Using a sleet and snow series for the UK derived by Profs. Gordon Manley and Elizabeth Shaw to examine winter reconstructions, we show that precipitation totals for pre-1870 winters are likely biased low due to gauge under-catch of snowfall and a higher incidence of snowfall during this period. When these factors are accounted for in our reconstructions, the observed trend to wetter winters in EWP is no longer evident. For summer, we find that pre-1820 precipitation totals are too high, likely due to decreasing network density and less certain data at key stations. A significant trend to drier summers is not robustly present in our reconstructions of the EWP series. While our findings are more certain for winter than summer, we highlight (a) that extreme caution should be exercised when using EWP to make inferences about multi-centennial trends, and; (b) that assessments of 18th and 19th Century winter precipitation should be aware of potential snow biases in early records. Our findings underline the importance of continual re-appraisal of established long-term climate data sets as new evidence becomes available. It is also likely that the identified biases in winter EWP have distorted many other long-term European precipitation series.

Simulation of soil carbon efflux from an arable soil using the ECOSSE model: Need for an improved model evaluation framework?

Globally, it is estimated that ~1500PgC of organic carbon is stored in the top meter of terrestrial soils. This represents the largest terrestrial pool of carbon. Appropriate management of soils, to maintain or increase the soil carbon pool, represents a significant climate change mitigation opportunity. To achieve this, appropriate tools and models are required in order to more accurately estimate soil carbon fluxes with a view to informing and developing more effective land use management strategies. Central to this is the evaluation of models currently in use to estimate soil carbon emissions. In the present study, we evaluate the ECOSSE (Estimating Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions) model which has its origins in both SUNDIAL and RothC and has been widely used globally to model soil CO2 fluxes across different locations and land-use types on both organic and mineral soils. In contrast to previous studies, the model was found to poorly represent observed soil respiration at the study site, an arable cropland on mineral soil located in south-east Ireland. To isolate potential sources of error, the model was decomposed into its component rate equations or modifiers. This investigation highlighted a deficiency in the model simulated soil water, resulting in significant inhibition of the model simulated CO2 flux relative to the observed data. When measured values of soil water at the site were employed, the model simulated soil respiration improved significantly (r2 of 0.775 vs 0.154). This highlighted model deficiency remains to be evaluated at other sites; however, the research highlights the need for a more comprehensive evaluation of soil carbon models prior to their use in informing policy, particularly models which are employed at larger scales and for climate change projections.