EVis: Visually Analyzing Environmentally Driven Events.

Earth scientists are increasingly employing time series data with multiple dimensions and high temporal resolution to study the impacts of climate and environmental changes on Earth's atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere. However, the large number of variables and varying time scales of antecedent conditions contributing to natural phenomena hinder scientists from completing more than the most basic analyses. In this paper, we present EVis (Environmental Visualization), a new visual analytics prototype to help scientists analyze and explore recurring environmental events (e.g. rock fracture, landslides, heat waves, floods) and their relationships with high dimensional time series of continuous numeric environmental variables, such as ambient temperature and precipitation. EVis provides coordinated scatterplots, heatmaps, histograms, and RadViz for foundational analyses. These features allow users to interactively examine relationships between events and one, two, three, or more environmental variables. EVis also provides a novel visual analytics approach to allowing users to discover temporally lagging relationships related to antecedent conditions between events and multiple variables, a critical task in Earth sciences. In particular, this latter approach projects multivariate time series onto trajectories in a 2D space using RadViz, and clusters the trajectories for temporal pattern discovery. Our case studies with rock cracking data and interviews with domain experts from a range of sub-disciplines within Earth sciences illustrate the extensive applicability and usefulness of EVis.

Analyzing Patient Secure Messages Using a Fast Health Care Interoperability Resources (FIHR)-Based Data Model: Development and Topic Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Patient portals tethered to electronic health records systems have become attractive web platforms since the enacting of the Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act and the introduction of the Meaningful Use program in the United States. Patients can conveniently access their health records and seek consultation from providers through secure web portals. With increasing adoption and patient engagement, the volume of patient secure messages has risen substantially, which opens up new research and development opportunities for patient-centered care. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a data model for patient secure messages based on the Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard to identify and extract significant information. METHODS: We initiated the first draft of the data model by analyzing FHIR and manually reviewing 100 sentences randomly sampled from more than 2 million patient-generated secure messages obtained from the online patient portal at the Mayo Clinic Rochester between February 18, 2010, and December 31, 2017. We then annotated additional sets of 100 randomly selected sentences using the Multi-purpose Annotation Environment tool and updated the data model and annotation guideline iteratively until the interannotator agreement was satisfactory. We then created a larger corpus by annotating 1200 randomly selected sentences and calculated the frequency of the identified medical concepts in these sentences. Finally, we performed topic modeling analysis to learn the hidden topics of patient secure messages related to 3 highly mentioned microconcepts, namely, fatigue, prednisone, and patient visit, and to evaluate the proposed data model independently. RESULTS: The proposed data model has a 3-level hierarchical structure of health system concepts, including 3 macroconcepts, 28 mesoconcepts, and 85 microconcepts. Foundation and base macroconcepts comprise 33.99% (841/2474), clinical macroconcepts comprise 64.38% (1593/2474), and financial macroconcepts comprise 1.61% (40/2474) of the annotated corpus. The top 3 mesoconcepts among the 28 mesoconcepts are condition (505/2474, 20.41%), medication (424/2474, 17.13%), and practitioner (243/2474, 9.82%). Topic modeling identified hidden topics of patient secure messages related to fatigue, prednisone, and patient visit. A total of 89.2% (107/120) of the top-ranked topic keywords are actually the health concepts of the data model. CONCLUSIONS: Our data model and annotated corpus enable us to identify and understand important medical concepts in patient secure messages and prepare us for further natural language processing analysis of such free texts. The data model could be potentially used to automatically identify other types of patient narratives, such as those in various social media and patient forums. In the future, we plan to develop a machine learning and natural language processing solution to enable automatic triaging solutions to reduce the workload of clinicians and perform more granular content analysis to understand patients' needs and improve patient-centered care.

Exploring Feasibility of Multivariate Deep Learning Models in Predicting COVID-19 Epidemic.

Background: Mathematical models are powerful tools to study COVID-19. However, one fundamental challenge in current modeling approaches is the lack of accurate and comprehensive data. Complex epidemiological systems such as COVID-19 are especially challenging to the commonly used mechanistic model when our understanding of this pandemic rapidly refreshes. Objective: We aim to develop a data-driven workflow to extract, process, and develop deep learning (DL) methods to model the COVID-19 epidemic. We provide an alternative modeling approach to complement the current mechanistic modeling paradigm. Method: We extensively searched, extracted, and annotated relevant datasets from over 60 official press releases in Hubei, China, in 2020. Multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) models were developed with different architectures to track and predict multivariate COVID-19 time series for 1, 2, and 3 days ahead. As a comparison, univariate LSTMs were also developed to track new cases, total cases, and new deaths. Results: A comprehensive dataset with 10 variables was retrieved and processed for 125 days in Hubei. Multivariate LSTM had reasonably good predictability on new deaths, hospitalization of both severe and critical patients, total discharges, and total monitored in hospital. Multivariate LSTM showed better results for new and total cases, and new deaths for 1-day-ahead prediction than univariate counterparts, but not for 2-day and 3-day-ahead predictions. Besides, more complex LSTM architecture seemed not to increase overall predictability in this study. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the feasibility of DL models to complement current mechanistic approaches when the exact epidemiological mechanisms are still under investigation.