Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk: A new product for early warning and management.

Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk.

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs.

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats.

Community similarity and species overlap between habitats provide insight into the deep reef refuge hypothesis.

The deep reef refuge hypothesis (DRRH) postulates that mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) may provide a refuge for shallow coral reefs (SCRs). Understanding this process is an important conservation tool given increasing threats to coral reefs. To establish a better framework to analyze the DRRH, we analyzed stony coral communities in American Samoa across MCEs and SCRs to describe the community similarity and species overlap to test the foundational assumption of the DRRH. We suggest a different approach to determine species as depth specialists or generalists that changes the conceptual role of MCEs and emphasizes their importance in conservation planning regardless of their role as a refuge or not. This further encourages a reconsideration of a broader framework for the DRRH. We found 12 species of corals exclusively on MCEs and 183 exclusively on SCRs with another 63 species overlapping between depth zones. Of these, 19 appear to have the greatest potential to serve as reseeding species. Two additional species are listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, Acropora speciosa and Fimbriaphyllia paradivisa categorized as an occasional deep specialist and a deep exclusive species, respectively. Based on the community distinctiveness and minimal species overlap of SCR and MCE communities, we propose a broader framework by evaluating species overlap across coral reef habitats. This provides an opportunity to consider the opposite of the DRRH where SCRs support MCEs.

Coral mass mortalities in the Chagos Archipelago over 40 years: Regional species and assemblage extinctions and indications of positive feedbacks.

The global decline of reef corals has been driven largely by several marine heatwaves. This has greatly reduced coral cover but has reduced coral diversity also. While there is a lack of data in most locations to detect coral species losses, reefs of the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean, have long term monitoring data extending back to the late 1970s. Severe declines in cover have occurred since the 1970s, with regional extinctions of some species and key species assemblages. There is a severe decline in coral settlement, along with a substantial loss of habitat quality which has reduced the habitat available for settlement. This is a clear precursor to positive feedback. Regional species extinctions here occur mainly when total coral cover is <10% of pre-warming levels. Climate models predict more frequent and more severe marine heatwaves, and even if this ecosystem recovers it will contain fewer species.

National-scale marine bioregions for the Southwest Pacific.

Existing marine bioregions covering the Pacific Ocean are conceptualised at spatial scales that are too broad for national marine spatial planning. Here, we developed the first combined oceanic and coastal marine bioregionalisation at national scales, delineating 262 deep-water and 103 reef-associated bioregions across the southwest Pacific. The deep-water bioregions were informed by thirty biophysical environmental variables. For reef-associated environments, records for 806 taxa at 7369 sites were used to predict the probability of observing taxa based on environmental variables. Both deep-water and reef-associated bioregions were defined with cluster analysis applied to the environmental variables and predicted species observation probabilities, respectively to classify areas with high taxonomic similarity. Local experts further refined the delineation of the bioregions at national scales for four countries. This work provides marine bioregions that enable the design of ecologically representative national systems of marine protected areas within offshore and inshore environments in the Pacific.

The relationship between macroalgae taxa and human disturbance on central Pacific coral reefs.

Climate change and human disturbance threatens coral reefs across the Pacific, yet there is little consensus on what characterizes a "healthy" reef. Benthic cover, particularly low coral cover and high macroalgae cover, are often used as an indicator of reef degradation, despite uncertainty about the typical algal community compositions associated with either near-pristine or damaged reefs. In this study, we examine differences in coral and algal community compositions and their response to human disturbance and past heat stress, by analysing 25 sites along a gradient of human disturbance in Majuro and Arno Atolls of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Our results show that total macroalgae cover indicators of reef degradation may mask the influence of local human disturbance, with different taxa responding to disturbance differently. Identifying macroalgae to a lower taxonomic level (e.g. the genus level) is critical for a more accurate measure of Pacific coral reef health.

Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

Annotated checklist for stony corals of American Samoa with reference to mesophotic depth records.

An annotated checklist of the stony corals (Scleractinia, Milleporidae, Stylasteridae, and Helioporidae) of American Samoa is presented. A total of 377 valid species has been reported from American Samoa with 342 species considered either present (251) or possibly present (91). Of these 342 species, 66 have a recorded geographical range extension and 90 have been reported from mesophotic depths (30-150 m). Additionally, four new species records (Acanthastreasubechinata Veron, 2000, Favitesparaflexuosus Veron, 2000, Echinophylliaechinoporoides Veron & Pichon, 1980, Turbinariairregularis Bernard, 1896) are presented. Coral species of concern include species listed under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List of threatened species. Approximately 17.5% of the species present or possibly present are categorized as threatened by IUCN compared to 27% of the species globally. American Samoa has seven ESA-listed or ESA candidate species, including Acroporaglobiceps (Dana, 1846), Acroporajacquelineae Wallace, 1994, Acroporaretusa (Dana, 1846), Acroporaspeciosa (Quelch, 1886), Fimbriaphylliaparadivisa (Veron, 1990), Isoporacrateriformis (Gardiner, 1898), and Pocilloporameandrina Dana, 1846. There are two additional species possibly present, i.e., Pavonadiffluens (Lamarck, 1816) and Poritesnapopora Veron, 2000.

Fishing down the largest coral reef fish species.

Studies on remote, uninhabited, near-pristine reefs have revealed surprisingly large populations of large reef fish. Locations such as the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, northern Marianas Islands, Line Islands, U.S. remote Pacific Islands, Cocos-Keeling Atoll and Chagos archipelago have much higher reef fish biomass than islands and reefs near people. Much of the high biomass of most remote reef fish communities lies in the largest species, such as sharks, bumphead parrots, giant trevally, and humphead wrasse. Some, such as sharks and giant trevally, are apex predators, but others such as bumphead parrots and humphead wrasse, are not. At many locations, decreases in large reef fish species have been attributed to fishing. Fishing is well known to remove the largest fish first, and a quantitative measure of vulnerability to fishing indicates that large reef fish species are much more vulnerable to fishing than small fish. The removal of large reef fish by fishing parallels the extinction of terrestrial megafauna by early humans. However large reef fish have great value for various ecological roles and for reef tourism.

One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts.

The conservation status of 845 zooxanthellate reef-building coral species was assessed by using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Criteria. Of the 704 species that could be assigned conservation status, 32.8% are in categories with elevated risk of extinction. Declines in abundance are associated with bleaching and diseases driven by elevated sea surface temperatures, with extinction risk further exacerbated by local-scale anthropogenic disturbances. The proportion of corals threatened with extinction has increased dramatically in recent decades and exceeds that of most terrestrial groups. The Caribbean has the largest proportion of corals in high extinction risk categories, whereas the Coral Triangle (western Pacific) has the highest proportion of species in all categories of elevated extinction risk. Our results emphasize the widespread plight of coral reefs and the urgent need to enact conservation measures.