Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Cervid Chronic Wasting Disease in Semi-Arid South Texas.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a spongiform encephalopathy disease caused by the transmission of infectious prion agents. CWD is a fatal disease that affects wild and farmed cervids in North America with few cases reported overseas. Social interaction of cervids, feeding practices by wildlife keepers and climate effects on the environmental carrying capacity all can affect CWD transmission in deer. Wildlife deer game hunting is economically important to the semi-arid South Texas region and is affected by climate change. In this paper, we model and investigate the effect of climate change on the spread of CWD using typical climate scenarios. We use a system of impulsive differential equations to depict the transmission of CWD between different age groups and gender of cervids. The carrying capacity and contact rates are assumed to depend on climate. Due to the polygamy of bucks, we use mating rates that depend on the number of bucks and does. We analyze the stability of the model and use simulations to study the effect of harvesting (culling) on eradicating the disease, given the climate of South Texas. We use typical climate change scenarios based on published data and our assumptions. For the climate indicator, we calculated and utilized the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that climate change might hinder the efforts to reduce and effectively manage CWD as it becomes endemic to South Texas. The model shows the extinction of the deer population from this region is a likely outcome.

Potential distribution of Amblyomma mixtum (Koch, 1844) in climate change scenarios in the Americas.

Amblyomma mixtum is a Neotropical generalist tick of medical and veterinary importance which is widely distributed from United States of America to Ecuador. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in the geographic projections of the ecological niche models of A. mixtum in climate change scenarios in America. We constructed a database of published scientific publications, personal collections, personal communications, and online databases. Ecological niche modelling was performed with 15 Bioclimatic variables using kuenm in R and was projected to three time periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Current and 2050) for America. Our model indicated a wide distribution for A. mixtum, with higher probability of occurrence along the Gulf of Mexico and occurring in a lesser proportion in the Pacific states, Central America, and the northern part of South America. The areas of new invasion are located mainly on the border of Mexico with Guatemala and Belize, some regions of Central America and Colombia. We conclude that the ecological niche modelling are effective tools to infer the potential distribution of A. mixtum in America, in addition to helping to propose future measures of epidemiological control and surveillance in the new potential areas of invasion.

Screening Sticky Cards as a Simple Method for Improving Efficiency of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae) Monitoring and Reducing Nontarget Organisms.

Management of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) populations is one of the major strategies for reducing the spread and incidence of huanglongbing (HLB). HLB is putatively caused by Candidatus Liberibacter spp. (Rhizobiales: Phyllopbacteriaceae) that are transmitted to citrus by psyllid vectors. Diaphorina citri population monitoring is done to detect its presence and inform on management decisions. Various methods are used for detecting and estimating D. citri densities but trapping with yellow or lime-green sticky cards has proven to be the most effective method. These sticky cards rely on the color preference of adult D. citri, but many flying organisms are attracted to the same color spectrum as psyllids. Hence, in field situations, sticky traps are hampered by large numbers of bycatches of nontarget organisms and debris. Here, we described a method using a mesh laid on the surface of traps as a sift to catch mainly psyllids, while reducing bycatches. By filtering D. citri through this mesh, they can be counted more rapidly and accurately. Although mesh-covered traps captured 5-15% less D. citri relative to uncovered ACP traps, both types of traps statistically agreed on D. citri detection and population densities. The effectiveness of mesh-covered traps did not vary with season. In addition, mesh-covered traps eliminated >90% of nontarget organisms and allowed for quicker enumeration of D. citri. We expect this method will become an important component of redesigning integrated pest management programs in citrus groves by reducing unintended impacts of beneficial arthropods during large scale D. citri monitoring.

Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

Poinsettia's wild ancestor in the Mexican dry tropics: Historical, genetic, and environmental evidence.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The poinsettia (Euphorbia pulcherrima) is the world's most economically important potted plant, but despite its preeminence it is not clear which wild populations are ancestral to the varieties cultivated around the world. Tradition holds that the U.S. envoy to Mexico J. R. Poinsett collected the progenitors of the over 300 varieties in global cultivation on an 1828 excursion to northern Guerrero State, Mexico. It is unknown whether the contemporary cultivars are descended from plants from Guerrero or whether germplasm from other parts of poinsettia's 2000 km long distribution entered into cultivation during the nearly 200 yr of subsequent poinsettia horticulture. METHODS: To identify the wild populations that likely gave rise to the cultivars and test this historical account, we sequenced plastid and nuclear DNA regions and modeled poinsettia's potential distribution. KEY RESULTS: The combination of nuclear and plastid haplotypes characterizing cultivars was found only in northern Guerrero. Distribution modeling indicated that suitable habitat conditions for wild poinsettias are present in this area, consistent with their likely wild status. CONCLUSIONS: Our data pinpoint the area of northern Guerrero as the cultivated poinsettia's probable ancestral region, congruent with the traditional account attributing the original collections to Poinsett. Abundant genetic variation likely offers raw material for improving the many shortcomings of cultivars, including vulnerability to cold, stem breakage, and pathogens such as Pythium and Phytophthora. However, genetic differences between populations make conservation of all of poinsettia's diversity difficult.