Gis and fuzzy logic applied to modelling forest fire risk.

Fire risk mapping is a basic planning and protection element. This study presents the application of fuzzy logic in a geographic information system (GIS) as an alternative multi-criteria analysis for determining the areas of highest risk of forest fire in natural forest remnants in the Brazil. In the decision-making process, a set of factors that are relevant to fire safety were identified in the study area. For each input variable chosen for the model, a pertinence function was defined that best described its influence on fire risk. Subsequently, the variables were combined for the presentation of the final fire risk map. Concluded in the study that an increased risk of fire occurs at the wildland - urban interface. A strong relationship was observed between the fire ignition points and proximity to roads and urban areas. The proposed model was efficient to integrate the variables and determine areas of greatest risk.

Spatial distribution of wood volume in Brazilian savannas.

Here we model and describe the wood volume of Cerrado Sensu Stricto, a highly heterogeneous vegetation type in the Savanna biome, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, integrating forest inventory data with spatial-environmental variables, multivariate regression, and regression kriging. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the factors that affect the spatial distribution of the wood volume of this vegetation type as well as allowing better representation of the spatial heterogeneity of this biome. Wood volume estimates were obtained through regression models using different environmental variables as independent variables. Using the best fitted model, spatial analysis of the residuals was carried out by selecting a semivariogram model for generating an ordinary kriging map, which in turn was used with the fitted regression model in the regression kriging technique. Seasonality of both temperature and precipitation, along with the density of deforestation, explained the variations of wood volume throughout Minas Gerais. The spatial distribution of predicted wood volume of Cerrado Sensu Stricto in Minas Gerais revealed the high variability of this variable (15.32 to 98.38 m3 ha-1) and the decreasing gradient in the southeast-northwest direction.

Volume equations for Khaya ivorensis A. Chev. plantations in Brazil.

African mahogany (Khaya spp.) plantations are in expansion in Brazil and in the world. This fact justifies the need for studies related to its growth and yield. This paper aimed to evaluate the performance of single-entry and double-entry models for estimating merchantable and total volume for Khaya ivorensis plantations before the first thinning (7 years) and expected final cut (15 years). Volume data was from 100 and 46 trees in Minas Gerais and Pará states, respectively, by using an electronic dendrometer (Criterion RD 1000). Observed volumes were calculated by Smalian's formula. To validate the optical dendrometer, 10 trees were felled and had their volume measured, and compared with the volumes measured indirectly. The results showed that observed and estimated volumes were statistically equal, and that double-entry models were more precise than single-entry models. Schumacher and Hall model was the best equation to estimate merchantable volume for first thinning and for final cut in Minas Gerais stands. Spurr logarithmized model was the best equation to estimate total volume for first thinning and Spurr model for final cut in Pará stands. All chosen equations can be used to quantify merchantable and total volumes of Khaya ivorensis grown under similar conditions.

Optimal selective logging regime and log landing location models: a case study in the Amazon forest / Regime de corte seletivo ótimo em modelos de locação de pátios de estocagem de madeira: um estudo de caso na floresta amazônica

ABSTRACT Reduced-impact logging is a well known practice applied in most sustainable forest management plans in the Amazon. Nevertheless, there are still ways to improve the operational planning process. Therefore, the aim of this study was to create an integer linear programming (ILP) to fill in the knowledge gaps in the decision support system of reduced impact logging explorations. The minimization of harvest tree distance to wood log landing was assessed. Forest structure aspects, income and wood production were set in the model, as well as the adjacency constraints. Data are from a dense ombrophylous forest in the western Brazilian Amazon. We applied the phytosociological analysis and BDq method to define the selective logging criteria. Then, ILP models were formulated to allow the application of the constraints. Finally, 32 scenarios (unbalanced forest, UF, and balanced forest, BF) were generated and compared with real executed plans (RE). Robust results were achieved and the expected finding of each scenario was met. The feasibility to integrate ILP models in uneven-aged forest management projects was endorsed. Consequently, the UF and BF scenarios tested were efficient and concise, introducing new advances for forest management plans in the Amazon. The proposed models have a high potential to improve the selective logging activities in the Amazon forest.

RESUMO A exploração de impacto reduzido é uma prática bem conhecida e aplicada na maioria dos planos de manejo florestal sustentável na Amazônia. Todavia, ainda há a possibilidade de melhoria do processo de planejamento da operação. Diante da falta de métodos auxiliares à tomada de decisão, o objetivo do trabalho foi desenvolver modelos de programação linear inteira (PLI) para suprir esta demanda. Considerou-se a minimização da distância entre as árvores exploradas e os pátios de estocagem de madeira. Aspectos estruturais, econômicos e produtivos foram incorporados ao modelo, bem como restrições de adjacência. Os dados derivam de uma floresta ombrófila densa na Amazônia Ocidental. Previamente, utilizou-se uma análise fitossociológica e o método BDq como critério de remoção. Posteriormente, modelos de PLI foram formulados para exemplificar as aplicações. Finalmente, 32 cenários (para floresta desbalaceada, UF, e floresta balanceada, BF) foram gerados e comparados com o plano executado no campo (RE). Resultados robustos foram obtidos e atenderam às expectativas de cada cenário. A viabilidade da integração dos modelos de PLI em projetos de manejo de florestas ineqüiâneas foi testado. Os cenários UF e BF testados foram eficientes e concisos, confirmando seu potencial para aumentar a eficiência de planos de exploração madeireira e manejo florestal na Amazônia.

Spatial Distribution of Aboveground Carbon Stock of the Arboreal Vegetation in Brazilian Biomes of Savanna, Atlantic Forest and Semi-Arid Woodland.

The objective of this study was to map the spatial distribution of aboveground carbon stock (using Regression-kriging) of arboreal plants in the Atlantic Forest, Semi-arid woodland, and Savanna Biomes in Minas Gerais State, southeastern Brazil. The database used in this study was obtained from 163 forest fragments, totaling 4,146 plots of 1,000 m2 distributed in these Biomes. A geographical model for carbon stock estimation was parameterized as a function of Biome, latitude and altitude. This model was applied over the samples and the residuals generated were mapped based on geostatistical procedures, selecting the exponential semivariogram theoretical model for conducting ordinary Kriging. The aboveground carbon stock was found to have a greater concentration in the north of the State, where the largest contingent of native vegetation is located, mainly the Savanna Biome, with Wooded Savanna and Shrub Savanna phytophysiognomes. The largest weighted averages of carbon stock per hectare were found in the south-center region (48.6 Mg/ha) and in the southern part of the eastern region (48.4 Mg/ha) of Minas Gerais State, due to the greatest predominance of Atlantic Forest Biome forest fragments. The smallest weighted averages per hectare were found in the central (21.2 Mg/ha), northern (20.4 Mg/ha), and northwestern (20.7 Mg/ha) regions of Minas Gerais State, where Savanna Biome fragments are predominant, in the phytophysiognomes Wooded Savanna and Shrub Savanna.

Lipid profile and anti-TNF-α use.

The use of anti-TNF-α has been associated with several changes in lipid profile, although some study results are conflicting. The knowledge of this fact is of great importance when one observes at the association between rheumatic diseases and accelerated atherogenesis. The aim of this analysis was search for changes in lipid profile in anti TNF-α users in the population of Southern Brazil and its association with duration of use, indications, patient gender and type of anti-TNF. For this purpose, we studied the profiles of total cholesterol (TC), HDL cholesterol (HDLc), LDL cholesterol (LDLc), atherogenic index (ATI) and triglycerides (TGs) of 58 patients (42 with rheumatoid arthritis and 16 with spondyloarthritis) before and after using this drug for a median of 16.0 months. There were no changes in the levels of TC, HDLc, LDLc and ATI (P = NS). However, there was a significant increase in TG levels (P = 0.03). The median difference between first and second TG measurements was 16 mg/dL and this increase was not associated with gender, time of use, use indication or type of anti TNF-α (P = NS). It was concluded that the use of anti TNF-α is associated with increased values of TG.

Variabilidade em dez populações de Hemileia vastatrix em relação à germinação e ao comprimento do tubo germinativo em quatro temperaturas / Variability in ten populations of Hemileia vastatrix for germination and germinative tube length under four temperatures

Neste trabalho, objetivou-se verificar o efeito da temperatura na germinação e no comprimento do tubo germinativo em diferentes populações de H. vastatrix (PHVs), sob quatro temperaturas. Realizou-se um bioensaio com dez PHVs, com suspensão de urediniósporos a 0,5mg/mL em solução aquosa (0,05 por cento) de tween 80. Duas gotas de cada suspensão foram depositadas em lâminas de microscópio recobertas com camada de poliestireno e colocadas em gerbox contendo papel de filtro umedecido para constituir câmara úmida. Os gerboxes foram mantidos fechados, no escuro, a 15ºC, 20ºC, 25ºC e 30ºC, por 24 horas. O ensaio foi conduzido em fatorial 10 x 4, sendo dez isolados, quatro temperaturas e duas repetições. Avaliaram-se a germinação e o comprimento do tubo germinativo. Houve variabilidade entre as PHVs quanto à temperatura ótima para germinação e alongamento do tubo germinativo.

The objective of this work was to verify the effect of temperature in germination and germ tube length in different populations of H. vastatrix (PHVs) temperatures. A bioassay was performed with ten PHVs, using an urediniospore suspension of at 0.5mg/mL in aqueous solution (0.05 percent) of tween 80. Two drops of each suspension was deposited on a microscope coverslip, covered with a polystyrene layer and incubated in gerbox containing a watered filter paper to work as a wet chamber. The gerbox was kept closed, in the dark, at 15, 20, 25 and 30ºC for 24 hours. The assay was carried out in a factorial design 10 x 4, with ten isolates, four temperatures and two replicates represented by two drops of the suspension. Germination percentage and germ tube length were assessed. There was variability among PHVs for the optimum temperature for germination and elongation of the germ tube.