Comparing the long-term persistence of different Wolbachia strains after the release of bacteria-carrying mosquitoes.

This paper proposes a bidimensional modeling framework for Wolbachia invasion, assuming imperfect maternal transmission, incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility, and direct infection loss due to thermal stress. Our model adapts to various Wolbachia strains and retains all properties of higher-dimensional models. The conditions for the durable coexistence of Wolbachia-carrying and wild mosquitoes are expressed using the model's parameters in a compact closed form. When the Wolbachia bacterium is locally established, the size of the remanent wild population can be assessed by a direct formula derived from the model. The model was tested for four Wolbachia strains undergoing laboratory and field trials to control mosquito-borne diseases: wMel, wMelPop, wAlbB, and wAu. As all these bacterial strains affect the individual fitness of mosquito hosts differently and exhibit different levels of resistance to temperature variations, the model helped to conclude that: (1) the wMel strain spreads faster in wild mosquito populations; (2) the wMelPop exhibits lower resilience but also guarantees the smallest size of the remanent wild population; (3) the wAlbB strain performs better at higher ambient temperatures than others; (4) the wAu strain is not sustainable and cannot persist in the wild mosquito population despite its resistance to high temperatures.

Impact of nonpharmaceutical strategies on trends of COVID-19 in São Paulo State.

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted on March 22, 2020) and of subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted on May 4, 2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.

Ecological Modelling of Insect Movement in Cropping Systems.

The spatio-temporal dynamics of insect pests in agricultural landscapes involves the potential of species to move, invade, colonise, and establish in different areas. This study revised the dispersal of the important crop pests Diabrotica speciosa Germar and Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) by using computational modelling to represent the movement of these polyphagous pests in agricultural mosaics. The findings raise significant questions regarding the dispersal of pests through crops and refuge areas, indicating that understanding pest movement is essential for developing strategies to predict critical infestation levels to assist in pest-management decisions. In addition, our modelling approach can be adapted for other insect species and other cropping systems despite discussing two specific species in the current manuscript. We present an overview of studies, combining experimentation and ecological modelling, discussing the methods used and the importance of studying insect movement as well as the implications for agricultural landscapes in Brazil.

Shifts in Ecological Dominance between Two Lepidopteran Species in Refuge Areas of Bt Cotton.

Competition behavior involving agricultural pest species has long been viewed as a powerful selective force that drives ecological and phenotypic diversity. In this context, a Game Theory-based approach may be useful to describe the decision-making dilemma of a competitor with impacts to guarantee its superiority in terms of ecological dominance or sharing of the food resource with its competitor. In an attempt to elucidate the consequences of competitive dynamics for the ecological dominance of these species in refuge areas of Bt cotton, we conducted a study that was divided into two parts. The first study consisted of an evaluation of interactions involving Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith, 1797) and Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner, 1808) on non-Bt cotton plants in a field trial. In the second study, we explored the data matrix collected in the field to parameterize a model of Cellular Automata (CA) with update rules inspired by Game Theory. Computer simulations were analyzed in hypothetical scenarios involving the application (or not) of insecticides in the refuge areas in combination with the resistance factor of one or both pest species to the insecticides used in the refuge areas. H. armigera had superior competitive performance in relation to S. frugiperda only at high densities. According to the density-mediated shift in dominance of the species, the resistance of S. frugiperda to insecticides is seen as a risk factor for the production of susceptible individuals of H. armigera on a large scale in the refuge areas. Additionally, S. frugiperda insecticide resistance may potentially impact the resistance evolution of the H. armigera population to Bt cotton. Thus, ecological dominance could diverge by the presence of a resistance allele to insecticides with interspecific competition perhaps subordinate to evolutionary processes.

Thermal Requirements and Population Viability of Chrysodeixis includens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

Development, mortality, fecundity, and longevity of soybean looper Chrysodeixis includens (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae, Plusiinae) were examined at six constant temperatures (18, 22, 25, 28, 32, and 36∘C) under laboratory conditions. This set range comprises temperatures observed at soybean- and cotton-producing regions during the growing season. Complete development from egg to adult was observed from 18 to 32∘C. Linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the data to estimate thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds. Although the development of immature stages of C. includens can be expected across broader temperature ranges, this species is meant to complete the whole cycle and recover from low densities between 19.7 and 30.0∘C. The best fitness is achieved at 25.4∘C. The results can be used to parameterize phenological or mathematical models to forecast the occurrence of different stages of C. includens in the field and help optimize the efforts to control this insect-pest.

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil.

Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy.

Impact of nonpharmaceutical strategies on trends of COVID-19 in São Paulo State

ABSTRACT Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted on March 22, 2020) and of subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted on May 4, 2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.

Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Two hundred days after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the epidemic has rapidly spread in metropolitan areas and advanced throughout the countryside. We followed the temporal epidemic pattern at São Paulo State, the most populous of the country, the first to have a confirmed case of COVID-19, and the one with the most significant number of cases until now. We analysed the number of new cases per day in each regional health department and calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time. Social distance measures, along with improvement in testing and isolating positive cases, general population mask-wearing and standard health security protocols for essential and non-essential activities, were adopted and impacted on slowing down epidemic velocity but were insufficient to stop transmission.

Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study.

The impact of influenza vaccination is largely measured by estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), which vary in different seasons. Strain mutations and waning immunity present two key mechanisms affecting VE. We sought to quantify the relative effect of these mechanisms by projecting VE and the reduction of illness due to vaccination. We developed a stochastic age-structured agent-based simulation model of influenza transmission dynamics to encapsulate intraseason waning of immunity post-vaccination, and mutation-induced antigenic distance between circulating strains and vaccine strains. Parameterizing the model with published estimates, we projected the temporal and overall VE during an epidemic season, and estimated the reduction of infection for high (70%) and low (30%) vaccine efficacies to reflect the levels of vaccine-induced protection in randomized control trials. Both temporal and overall VE decreased as the attack rate increased, with lower median values for epidemics starting with strains that were antigenically more distant from vaccine strains. We observed a higher rate of temporal decline with considerably lower median values of the overall VE in the presence of intraseason waning of immunity compared with only the antigenic distance effect. The highest benefit of vaccination in preventing influenza infection was achieved at moderate attack rates in the range of 6%-15%. The results show that even when VE is relatively low in the population and almost negligible for older age groups (i.e., 50+ years), vaccination can still prevent significant illness in high-risk individuals; thereby reducing healthcare resource utilization and economic burden. Our study indicates that early vaccination remains an important strategy for alleviating the burden of seasonal influenza. Policy discussions on optimal timing of vaccination to reduce the effect of intraseason waning of immunity should be considered in the context of strain mutations within the epidemic course.

Increasing molecular diagnostic capacity and COVID-19 incidence in Brazil.

Different countries have adopted strategies for the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 since the declaration of community transmission by the World Health Organization (WHO) and timely diagnosis has been considered one of the major obstacles for surveillance and healthcare. Here, we report the increase of the number of laboratories to COVID-19 diagnosis in Brazil. Our results demonstrate an increase and decentralisation of certified laboratories, which does not match the much higher increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. Also, it becomes clear that laboratories are irregularly distributed over the country, with a concentration in the most developed state, São Paulo.

Global dynamics of a differential-difference system: a case of Kermack-McKendrick SIR model with age-structured protection phase.

In this paper, we are concerned with an epidemic model of susceptible, infected and recovered (SIR) population dynamic by considering an age-structured phase of protection with limited duration, for instance due to vaccination or drugs with temporary immunity. The model is reduced to a delay differential-difference system, where the delay is the duration of the protection phase. We investigate the local asymptotic stability of the two steady states: disease-free and endemic. We also establish when the endemic steady state exists, the uniform persistence of the disease. We construct quadratic and logarithmic Lyapunov functions to establish the global asymptotic stability of the two steady states. We prove that the global stability is completely determined by the basic reproduction number.