Compromising improves forecasting.

Predicting the future can bring enormous advantages. Across the ages, reliance on supernatural foreseeing was substituted by the opinion of expert forecasters, and now by collective intelligence approaches which draw on many non-expert forecasters. Yet all of these approaches continue to see individual forecasts as the key unit on which accuracy is determined. Here, we hypothesize that compromise forecasts, defined as the average prediction in a group, represent a better way to harness collective predictive intelligence. We test this by analysing 5 years of data from the Good Judgement Project and comparing the accuracy of individual versus compromise forecasts. Furthermore, given that an accurate forecast is only useful if timely, we analyze how the accuracy changes through time as the events approach. We found that compromise forecasts are more accurate, and that this advantage persists through time, though accuracy varies. Contrary to what was expected (i.e. a monotonous increase in forecasting accuracy as time passes), forecasting error for individuals and for team compromise starts its decline around two months prior to the event. Overall, we offer a method of aggregating forecasts to improve accuracy, which can be straightforwardly applied in noisy real-world settings.

Democratic forecast: Small groups predict the future better than individuals and crowds.

Predictions pose unique problems. Experts regularly get them wrong, and collective solutions (such as prediction markets and super-forecaster schemes) do better but remain selective and costly. Contrary to the idea that face-to-face discussion hinders collective intelligence, social deliberation improves the resolution of general knowledge problems, with four consensually agreed answers outperforming the aggregate knowledge of 5,000 nondeliberating individuals. Could discussion help predict the future in an efficient, cheap, and inclusive way? We show that smaller groups of lay individuals, when organized, come up with better predictions than those they provide alone. Deliberation and consensus made individual predictions significantly more accurate. Aggregating as few as two consensual predictions did better than classical "wisdom of crowds" aggregation of 100 individual ones. Against the view that discussion can impair decision-making, our results demonstrate that collective intelligence of small groups and consensus-seeking improves accuracy about yet unknown facts, opening the avenue for efficient, inclusive, and inexpensive group forecasting solutions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

An Active Sensing Paradigm for Studying Human Auditory Perception.

Our perception is based on active sensing, i.e., the relationship between self-motion and resulting changes to sensory inputs. Yet, traditional experimental paradigms are characterized by delayed reactions to a predetermined stimulus sequence. To increase the engagement of subjects and potentially provide richer behavioral responses, we developed Sensory Island Task for humans (SITh), a freely-moving search paradigm to study auditory perception. In SITh, subjects navigate an arena in search of an auditory target, relying solely on changes in the presented stimulus frequency, which is controlled by closed-loop position tracking. A "target frequency" was played when subjects entered a circular sub-area of the arena, the "island", while different frequencies were presented outside the island. Island locations were randomized across trials, making stimulus frequency the only informative cue for task completion. Two versions of SITh were studied: binary discrimination, and gradual change of the stimulus frequency. The latter version allowed determining frequency discrimination thresholds based on the subjects' report of the perceived island location (i.e., target frequency). Surprisingly, subjects exhibited similar thresholds as reported in traditional "stationary" forced-choice experiments after performing only 30 trials, highlighting the intuitive nature of SITh. Notably, subjects spontaneously employed a small variety of stereotypical search patterns, and their usage proportions varied between task versions. Moreover, frequency discrimination performance depended on the search pattern used. Overall, we demonstrate that the use of an ecologically driven paradigm is able to reproduce established findings while simultaneously providing rich behavioral data for the description of sensory ethology.

Temporal hyper-precision of brainstem neurons alters spatial sensitivity of binaural auditory processing with cochlear implants.

The ability to localize a sound source in complex environments is essential for communication and navigation. Spatial hearing relies predominantly on the comparison of differences in the arrival time of sound between the two ears, the interaural time differences (ITDs). Hearing impairments are highly detrimental to sound localization. While cochlear implants (CIs) have been successful in restoring many crucial hearing capabilities, sound localization via ITD detection with bilateral CIs remains poor. The underlying reasons are not well understood. Neuronally, ITD sensitivity is generated by coincidence detection between excitatory and inhibitory inputs from the two ears performed by specialized brainstem neurons. Due to the lack of electrophysiological brainstem recordings during CI stimulation, it is unclear to what extent the apparent deficits are caused by the binaural comparator neurons or arise already on the input level. Here, we use a bottom-up approach to compare response features between electric and acoustic stimulation in an animal model of CI hearing. Conducting extracellular single neuron recordings in gerbils, we find severe hyper-precision and moderate hyper-entrainment of both the excitatory and inhibitory brainstem inputs to the binaural comparator neurons during electrical pulse-train stimulation. This finding establishes conclusively that the binaural processing stage must cope with highly altered input statistics during CI stimulation. To estimate the consequences of these effects on ITD sensitivity, we used a computational model of the auditory brainstem. After tuning the model parameters to match its response properties to our physiological data during either stimulation type, the model predicted that ITD sensitivity to electrical pulses is maintained even for the hyper-precise inputs. However, the model exhibits severely altered spatial sensitivity during electrical stimulation compared to acoustic: while resolution of ITDs near midline was increased, more lateralized adjacent source locations became inseparable. These results directly resemble recent findings in rodent and human CI listeners. Notably, decreasing the phase-locking precision of inputs during electrical stimulation recovered a wider range of separable ITDs. Together, our findings suggest that a central problem underlying the diminished ITD sensitivity in CI users might be the temporal hyper-precision of inputs to the binaural comparator stage induced by electrical stimulation.

Source identity shapes spatial preference in primary auditory cortex during active navigation.

Information about the position of sensory objects and identifying their concurrent behavioral relevance is vital to navigate the environment. In the auditory system, spatial information is computed in the brain based on the position of the sound source relative to the observer and thus assumed to be egocentric throughout the auditory pathway. This assumption is largely based on studies conducted in either anesthetized or head-fixed and passively listening animals, thus lacking self-motion and selective listening. Yet these factors are fundamental components of natural sensing1 that may crucially impact the nature of spatial coding and sensory object representation.2 How individual objects are neuronally represented during unrestricted self-motion and active sensing remains mostly unexplored. Here, we trained gerbils on a behavioral foraging paradigm that required localization and identification of sound sources during free navigation. Chronic tetrode recordings in primary auditory cortex during task performance revealed previously unreported sensory object representations. Strikingly, the egocentric angle preference of the majority of spatially sensitive neurons changed significantly depending on the task-specific identity (outcome association) of the sound source. Spatial tuning also exhibited large temporal complexity. Moreover, we encountered egocentrically untuned neurons whose response magnitude differed between source identities. Using a neural network decoder, we show that, together, these neuronal response ensembles provide spatiotemporally co-existent information about both the egocentric location and the identity of individual sensory objects during self-motion, revealing a novel cortical computation principle for naturalistic sensing.

Helping the waiter to hold his tray: Rigid haptic linkage promotes inter-personal motor coordination.

When a glass is lifted from a tray, there is a challenge for the waiter. He must quickly compensate for the reduction in the weight of the tray to keep it balanced. This compensation is easily achieved if the waiter lifts the glass himself. Because he has, himself, initiated the action, he can predict the timing and the magnitude of the perturbation of the tray and respond (via the holding hand) accordingly. In this study, we examined coordination when either one or two people hold the tray while either one of them or a third person removes the glass. Our results show that there is exquisite coordination between the two people holding the tray. We suggest that this coordination depends upon the haptic link provided by the rigid platform that both people are holding. We conclude that the guest at a reception should not lift his drink from the waiter's tray until they have the waiter's attention but, if too thirsty to wait, should lend a hand holding the tray.

Spatial clustering of orientation preference in primary visual cortex of the large rodent agouti.

All rodents investigated so far possess orientation-selective neurons in the primary visual cortex (V1) but - in contrast to carnivores and primates - no evidence of periodic maps with pinwheel-like structures. Theoretical studies debating whether phylogeny or universal principles determine development of pinwheels point to V1 size as a critical constraint. Thus, we set out to study maps of agouti, a big diurnal rodent with a V1 size comparable to cats'. In electrophysiology, we detected interspersed orientation and direction-selective neurons with a bias for horizontal contours, corroborated by homogeneous activation in optical imaging. Compatible with spatial clustering at short distance, nearby neurons tended to exhibit similar orientation preference. Our results argue against V1 size as a key parameter in determining the presence of periodic orientation maps. They are consistent with a phylogenetic influence on the map layout and development, potentially reflecting distinct retinal traits or interspecies differences in cortical circuitry.

Sensory Island Task (SIT): A New Behavioral Paradigm to Study Sensory Perception and Neural Processing in Freely Moving Animals.

A central function of sensory systems is the gathering of information about dynamic interactions with the environment during self-motion. To determine whether modulation of a sensory cue was externally caused or a result of self-motion is fundamental to perceptual invariance and requires the continuous update of sensory processing about recent movements. This process is highly context-dependent and crucial for perceptual performances such as decision-making and sensory object formation. Yet despite its fundamental ecological role, voluntary self-motion is rarely incorporated in perceptual or neurophysiological investigations of sensory processing in animals. Here, we present the Sensory Island Task (SIT), a new freely moving search paradigm to study sensory processing and perception. In SIT, animals explore an open-field arena to find a sensory target relying solely on changes in the presented stimulus, which is controlled by closed-loop position tracking in real-time. Within a few sessions, animals are trained via positive reinforcement to search for a particular area in the arena ("target island"), which triggers the presentation of the target stimulus. The location of the target island is randomized across trials, making the modulated stimulus feature the only informative cue for task completion. Animals report detection of the target stimulus by remaining within the island for a defined time ("sit-time"). Multiple "non-target" islands can be incorporated to test psychometric discrimination and identification performance. We exemplify the suitability of SIT for rodents (Mongolian gerbil, Meriones unguiculatus) and small primates (mouse lemur, Microcebus murinus) and for studying various sensory perceptual performances (auditory frequency discrimination, sound source localization, visual orientation discrimination). Furthermore, we show that pairing SIT with chronic electrophysiological recordings allows revealing neuronal signatures of sensory processing under ecologically relevant conditions during goal-oriented behavior. In conclusion, SIT represents a flexible and easily implementable behavioral paradigm for mammals that combines self-motion and natural exploratory behavior to study sensory sensitivity and decision-making and their underlying neuronal processing.

The key role of water in the dioxygenase function of Escherichia coli flavohemoglobin.

Flavohemoglobins (FHbs) are members of the globin superfamily, widely distributed among prokaryotes and eukaryotes that have been shown to carry out nitric oxide dioxygenase (NOD) activity. In prokaryotes, such as Escherichia coli, NOD activity is a defence mechanism against the NO release by the macrophages of the hosts' immune system during infection. Because of that, FHbs have been studied thoroughly and several drugs have been developed in an effort to fight infectious processes. Nevertheless, the protein's structural determinants involved in the NOD activity are still poorly understood. In this context, the aim of the present work is to unravel the molecular basis of FHbs structural dynamics-to-function relationship using state of the art computer simulation tools. In an effort to fulfill this goal, we studied three key processes that determine NOD activity, namely i) ligand migration into the active site ii) stabilization of the coordinated oxygen and iii) intra-protein electron transfer (ET). Our results allowed us to determine key factors related to all three processes like the presence of a long hydrophobic tunnel for ligand migration, the presence of a water mediated hydrogen bond to stabilize the coordinated oxygen and therefore achieve a high affinity, and the best possible ET paths between the FAD and the heme, where water molecules play an important role. Taken together the presented results close an important gap in our understanding of the wide and diverse globin structural-functional relationships.

p38γ activation triggers dynamical changes in allosteric docking sites.

Mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) are serine-threonine kinases that participate in signal transduction pathways. p38 MAPKs have four isoforms (p38α, p38ß, p38γ, and p38δ) which are involved in multiple cellular functions such as proliferation, differentiation, survival, and migration. MAPK kinases phosphorylate p38s in the dual-phosphorylation motif, Thr-Gly-Tyr, located in their activation loop, which induces a conformational change that increases ATP binding affinity and catalytic activity. Several works have proposed that MAPK dynamics is a key factor in determining their function. However, we still do not understand the dynamical changes that lead to MAPK activation. In this work we have used molecular dynamics techniques to study the dynamical changes associated with p38γ activation, the only fully active MAPK crystallized so far. We performed MD simulations of p38γ in three different states, fully active with ATP, active without ATP, and inactive. We found that the dynamical fluctuations of the docking sites, important for protein-protein interactions, are regulated allosterically by changes in the active site. Interestingly, in the phosphorylated and ATP-bound states the whole protein dynamics lead to concerted motions of whole protein domains in contrast to the inactive state. The binding/unbinding of ATP participates in the reorientation of the two domains and in the regulation of protein plasticity. Our study shows that beyond the conformational changes associated with MAPK activation their correlated dynamics are highly regulated by phosphorylation and ATP binding. This means that MAPK plasticity may have a role in their catalytic activity, specificity, and protein-protein interactions and, therefore, in the outcome of the signaling network.