Differences between women and men in serial HIV prevalence and incidence trends.

To measure trends in HIV incidence and serial prevalence by sex in a intravenous drug users (IDUs) and heterosexuals (HT) cohort recruited in a counselling centre in Valencia (1988-2005). Serial prevalence and incidence rates were calculated and modelled by logistic and Poisson regression respectively. 5948 IDUs and 13343 HT were recruited. Prevalence was higher among female IDUs (46% vs. 41%), and female HT (4.1% vs. 2%). For IDUs, an interaction (P = 0.005) between sex and calendar was detected. Age-adjusted prevalence showed faster yearly decline in men (OR = 0.87 95%CI: 0.85-0.88) than in women (OR = 0.91 95%CI: 0.88-0.93). Incidence was higher in female IDUs (9.79% p-y) than in men, (5.38% p-y) with an annual decrease for both of 11%. HIV incidence was higher in female HT (0.62% p-y) compared to men 0.23% p-y with a 21% yearly decline. Gender differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends have been detected. Women showed an increased vulnerability to infection in a country whose HIV epidemic has been largely driven by IDUs.

Trends in HIV testing, serial HIV prevalence and HIV incidence among people attending a Center for AIDS Prevention from 1988 to 2003.

AIM: To analyse trends in HIV testing, serial HIV prevalence and HIV incidence among people who underwent voluntary testing in a Center for AIDS Prevention in Valencia, Spain. METHODS: Open cohort study including all subjects who went to the Center for AIDS Prevention from 1988 to 2003. Information on sociodemographic variables and HIV test results was collected. Serial prevalence and incidence rates were calculated, and joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in trends over time. RESULTS: 21,241 subjects were analysed; 67% men, 27% injecting drug users (IDUs), 43% heterosexuals and 13% men who have sex with men (MSM). From 1988 to 1990, IDUs accounted for 57% of clinic attenders, decreasing to 14% by 1997-2003, accompanied by an increase in heterosexuals. Overall, HIV prevalence for the whole period was 15%, dropping from 35% to <10% after 1999 and to 3% by 2003, when HIV prevalence was 26% in IDUs, 6% in MSM and 2% in heterosexuals. Total HIV incidence was 2.5%. From 1988 to 1990, HIV incidence ranged from 6% to 8%, and a gradual and progressive decline observed from 1990 onwards. From 1995 onwards, HIV incidence was <2%. The highest incidence rate is seen in IDUs, 7-12% in the first period and 4-5% at the end. Among MSM, a change in the decreasing trend is seen by 1998, and increases in incidence are detected by 2002-3. CONCLUSIONS: Serial HIV prevalence has markedly decreased from 1988 in all transmission categories, although it is still high. With regard to HIV incidence, the drop has been marked too, although a worrying increase, that requires further follow-up, has been detected in MSM in the past 2 years.

Effect of education on overall and cause-specific mortality in injecting drug users, according to HIV and introduction of HAART.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of education on long-term overall and cause-specific mortality among 6575 injecting drug users (IDUs) according to HIV status and introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: Community-based cohort study of IDUs recruited in three AIDS prevention centres (1987-1996). Causes of death were ascertained in clinical centres and Mortality Registry and classified as AIDS, drug use related, injuries, or liver diseases. Poisson regression models including education and calendar period interaction and adjusted by sex, age, and HIV were used. RESULTS: In 73 901 person-years of follow-up, there were 1493 deaths (20.2/1000 person-years): 761 related to AIDS, 234 to drug use, 179 to injuries, and 93 to liver diseases. IDUs with university studies had a lower risk of death (RR 0.52; 95% CI 0.36-0.77) than those without studies: this difference was higher after (RR 0.45; 95% CI 0.25-0.80) than before 1997 (RR 0.68; 95% CI 0.41-1.13). Compared to before 1997, while decreases in the risk of AIDS mortality were seen during 1997-2004 for both lower (RR 0.49; 95% CI 0.41-0.58) and higher (RR 0.33; 95% CI 0.23-0.48) educated, only those higher educated experienced a reduction in drug-use mortality (RR 0.54; 95% CI 0.28-1.05) and death from injuries (RR 0.52; 95% CI 0.23-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Independently of HIV status, lower education predicts a higher risk of death in IDUs and its impact is stronger after 1997. Education has a protective effect on most causes of death and it cannot be entirely attributable to the access or use of HAART.

[Imputation of the date of HIV seroconversion in cohorts of haemophiliacs]. / Imputación del instante de seroconversión al VIH en cohortes de hemofílicos.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the methods used to impute HIV seroconversion date in the haemophiliac cohorts from GEMES project and to validate its use. METHOD: 632 haemophiliacs coming from three hemophilia units identified as HIV+ and 1.092 individuals coming from 5 project GEMES cohorts with a seroconversion window (time among test HIV and HIV+) less than 3 years where mid point (PM) was assumed as seroconversion date. For both groups, seroconversion date was imputed after estimating the probability distribution of seroconversion by means of the EM algorithm. Two imputation methods are used: one obtained from the expected value and the other from the geometric mean of 5 random samples. from the estimated distribution. Imputations have been validated in the non haemophiliacs cohorts comparing with the PM seroconversion date. Also AIDS free time and survival from the different seroconversion imputed dates were compared. RESULTS: Median seroconversion date is located in May of 1993 for the non haemophiliacs and in 1982 for the haemophiliacs. Not big differences are observed among the imputed seroconversion dates and the mid-point seroconversion date in the non-haemophiliac cohorts. Similar results are found for the haemophiliac cohorts. Also no differences are observed in the estimated AIDS-free time for both groups of cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Geometric mean imputation from several random samples provides a good estimate of the HIV seroconversion date that can be used to estimate AIDS-free time and survival in haemophiliac cohorts where seroconversion date is ignored.

Progression of HIV infection and mortality by hepatitis C infection in patients with haemophilia over 20 years.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important cause of mortality in human immune deficiency virus (HIV)-positive haemophiliacs. This study describes progression to AIDS, death from HCV end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and all-cause mortality over 20 years. All HIV-positive haemophiliacs in La Paz University Hospital were included in this cohort. HIV seroconversion was estimated using mathematical techniques for interval-censored data from 1979 to 1985. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of AIDS, death from ESLD and all causes in different periods: before 1988, 1988-89, 1990-91, 1992-93, 1994-95, 1996-97 and 1998-2001 using competing risk models. Among 383 cohort members, global AIDS incidence was 9.7 per 100 person-years, peaking in 1992-93 and dropping by 87% in 1998-2001 compared with before 1988 [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03-0.53]. Overall mortality was 7.5 per 100 person-years, was highest from 1992 to 1997, and fell by 66% in 1998-2001 compared with before 1988 (IRR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.14-0.81). Eighteen (5%) persons died of ESLD which represented 19% of deaths before 1988, 4% during 1988-89, 1990-91 and 1992-93, 2% in 1994-95, 10% in 1996-97 and 33% in 1998-2001. Overall death rate from ESLD was 0.5 cases per 100 person-years with no statistically significant trend observed over time. Important reductions in HIV disease progression to AIDS and death have been observed from 1998 to 2001, and can be attributed to highly active antiretroviral therapy. Although no increase in the rate of HCV-related deaths can be demonstrated, HCV accounts for an increasing proportion of deaths in the recent years.