Optimizing forest landscape composition for multiple ecosystem services based on uncertain stakeholder preferences.

Determining the desirable composition of a forested landscape and its associated ecosystem services (ES) is challenging because the solutions must reconcile the preferences of various forest stakeholders and account for uncertain data. By combining multi-objective robust optimization with an online survey of forest professionals in Slovenia (n = 130) and forest professionals, forest scientists, nature conservationists and forest owners in Germany (n = 649) about optimal forest landscape composition, we derived compromise portfolios of forest types. These portfolios minimize the trade-offs between five ES (stopping avalanches, carbon storage, recreation, timber production and regulating flows of water), and account for the varying capacity of eight forest types to supply ES. The resulting optimized forest landscape compositions always comprised at least two forest types. In both countries, uneven-aged native deciduous and conifer mixed stands were prominent in the optimized portfolios. In Germany, however, the optimized portfolio also contained exotic species in mixtures, whereas forest stands without active management were notable for several ES in Slovenia. Unmanaged forest stands were also selected in the forest composition optimized for nature conservationists in Germany: the nature conservationists' portfolio diverged strongly from those of the other stakeholders. Our results illustrate that diversified forested landscapes provide multiple ES, but also secure the provision of a single ES when accounting for uncertainty. The optimal forest compositions obtained by multi-objective robust optimization are a starting point for participatory planning approaches to identify the most socially acceptable strategies for adapting forest management to an uncertain future.

Public attitudes toward environmental protection in the most developed countries: The Environmental Concern Kuznets Curve theory.

This paper presents the Environmental Concern Kuznets Curve (ECKC) theory about decreasing environmental concern in the most developed and protected area-rich countries. We analyzed the relationship between the protected area (PA) coverage, environmental concern and GDP per capita in the 42 most developed countries in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Our conclusion is that 1) as countries develop, environmental protection becomes less dependent on economic development; 2) at high levels of economic development, environmental concern decreases; 3) environmental concern reaches a maximum at 20-30% of PA coverage and decreases beyond this point. The influence of human values and factors at the local level was determined by a national survey (n = 999) on public attitudes toward greater conservation of forests in Slovenia. The results comply with the ECKC theory; the higher the naturalness of forests in the surroundings of a respondent's home, the lower the support for greater conservation. However, the study suggests that human values play a prominent role. Support for conservation largely depended on the respondents' general attitude toward forest cover and growing stock, harvesting intensities, satisfaction with the level of control in forests and concern for the population of protected brown bears. The general belief that ecosystems are fragile and there are limits to growth increased support for conservation by 33%. We conclude that the environment in the most developed countries is likely to experience increasing pressure due to decreasing environmental concern and its decoupling from objective problems.