Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture.

Agriculture's global environmental impacts are widely expected to continue expanding, driven by population and economic growth and dietary changes. This Review highlights climate change as an additional amplifier of agriculture's environmental impacts, by reducing agricultural productivity, reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals, increasing soil erosion, accelerating the growth and expanding the range of crop diseases and pests, and increasing land clearing. We identify multiple pathways through which climate change intensifies agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potentially powerful climate change-reinforcing feedback loop. The challenges raised by climate change underscore the urgent need to transition to sustainable, climate-resilient agricultural systems. This requires investments that both accelerate adoption of proven solutions that provide multiple benefits, and that discover and scale new beneficial processes and food products.

Sources of variation in nutrient loads collected through street sweeping in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, USA.

Excess non-point nutrient loading continues to impair urban surface waters. Because of the potential contribution of tree litterfall to nutrient pollution in stormwater, street sweeping is a promising management tool for reducing eutrophication in urban and suburban regions. However, nutrient concentrations and loads of material removed through street sweeping have not been well characterized, impeding the development of pollution reduction credits and improvement of models for stormwater management. We evaluated the role of canopy cover over streets, street sweeper type, season, and sweeping frequency in contributing to variation in concentrations and loads of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and solids recovered in street sweepings, using analyses of samples collected during regular street sweeping operations in five cities in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, USA. We expected that nutrient concentrations and loads would be highest in seasons and places of higher tree litterfall. We also expected that regenerative-air sweepers would recover higher loads compared to mechanical broom sweepers. Total N and P concentrations in sweepings increased most strongly with canopy cover in June, October, and November. Total N and P recovered in street sweepings similarly increased with canopy cover in June, October, and November, and peaked in early summer and autumn, times of high litterfall. In contrast, total dry mass in sweepings was greatest in early spring, following winter snowmelt. However, nutrient loads and concentrations did not differ between sweeper types. Our results add to growing evidence of the importance of street trees in contributing nutrient pollution to urban surface waters. Street sweeping focused on high-canopy streets during early summer and autumn is likely an effective management tool for stormwater nutrient pollution.

Valuing improvements in the ecological integrity of local and regional waters using the biological condition gradient.

Scientific knowledge related to quantifying the monetized benefits for landscape-wide water quality improvements does not meet current regulatory and benefit-cost analysis needs in the United States. In this study we addressed this knowledge gap by incorporating the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) as a water quality metric into a stated preference survey capable of estimating the total economic value (use and nonuse) for aquatic ecosystem improvements. The BCG is grounded in ecological principles and generalizable and transferable across space. Moreover, as the BCG translates available data on biological condition into a score on a 6-point scale, it provides a simple metric that can be readily communicated to the public. We applied our BCG-based survey instrument to households across the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee river basins and report values for a range of potential improvements that vary by location, spatial scale, and the scope of the water quality change. We found that people are willing to pay twice as much for an improvement policy that targets their home watershed (defined as a four-digit hydrologic unit) versus a more distant one. We also found that extending the spatial scale of a local policy beyond the home watershed does not generate additional benefits to the household. Finally, our results suggest that nonuse sources of value (e.g., bequest value, intrinsic aesthetic value) are an important component of overall benefits.

Superlinear scaling of riverine biogeochemical function with watershed size.

River networks regulate carbon and nutrient exchange between continents, atmosphere, and oceans. However, contributions of riverine processing are poorly constrained at continental scales. Scaling relationships of cumulative biogeochemical function with watershed size (allometric scaling) provide an approach for quantifying the contributions of fluvial networks in the Earth system. Here we show that allometric scaling of cumulative riverine function with watershed area ranges from linear to superlinear, with scaling exponents constrained by network shape, hydrological conditions, and biogeochemical process rates. Allometric scaling is superlinear for processes that are largely independent of substrate concentration (e.g., gross primary production) due to superlinear scaling of river network surface area with watershed area. Allometric scaling for typically substrate-limited processes (e.g., denitrification) is linear in river networks with high biogeochemical activity or low river discharge but becomes increasingly superlinear under lower biogeochemical activity or high discharge, conditions that are widely prevalent in river networks. The frequent occurrence of superlinear scaling indicates that biogeochemical activity in large rivers contributes disproportionately to the function of river networks in the Earth system.

Hydrologic processes regulate nutrient retention in stormwater detention ponds.

Managed stormwater ponds are abundant in urban landscapes in much of the world, performing vital but under-studied functions for attenuation of urban runoff and nutrient pollution. Water quality improvements are widely assumed to arise from settling of nutrients and other contaminants bound to particulates, with less consideration of hydrological and biogeochemical processes. To inform improved management of ponds for nutrient retention, we studied three mature urban detention ponds in the Twin Cities, MN, USA using continuous monitoring of pond hydrology and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus, coupled with periodic measurement of physiochemical conditions in the ponds. Across the three sites, annual nutrient retention was high for both nitrogen (>58%) and phosphorus (>48%) despite expectations of poor performance for phosphorus due to old age and internal loading linked to hypolimnetic anoxia. Both annual and event-scale analyses suggested strong hydrologic controls on nutrient retention, with retention for individual storm events strongly regulated by antecedent pond storage capacity. Events with net nutrient export occurred primarily due to low volume retention rather than relatively high outflow concentrations. Together these results suggest that understanding and improving pond hydrologic function is crucial to improving managed stormwater pond performance for meeting downstream water quality goals.

Integrated assessment modeling reveals near-channel management as cost-effective to improve water quality in agricultural watersheds.

Despite decades of policy that strives to reduce nutrient and sediment export from agricultural fields, surface water quality in intensively managed agricultural landscapes remains highly degraded. Recent analyses show that current conservation efforts are not sufficient to reverse widespread water degradation in Midwestern agricultural systems. Intensifying row crop agriculture and increasing climate pressure require a more integrated approach to water quality management that addresses diverse sources of nutrients and sediment and off-field mitigation actions. We used multiobjective optimization analysis and integrated three biophysical models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative portfolios of watershed management practices at achieving nitrate and suspended sediment reduction goals in an agricultural basin of the Upper Midwestern United States. Integrating watershed-scale models enabled the inclusion of near-channel management alongside more typical field management and thus directly the comparison of cost-effectiveness across portfolios. The optimization analysis revealed that fluvial wetlands (i.e., wide, slow-flowing, vegetated water bodies within the riverine corridor) are the single-most cost-effective management action to reduce both nitrate and sediment loads and will be essential for meeting moderate to aggressive water quality targets. Although highly cost-effective, wetland construction was costly compared to other practices, and it was not selected in portfolios at low investment levels. Wetland performance was sensitive to placement, emphasizing the importance of watershed scale planning to realize potential benefits of wetland restorations. We conclude that extensive interagency cooperation and coordination at a watershed scale is required to achieve substantial, economically viable improvements in water quality under intensive row crop agricultural production.

Prediction of Photochemically Produced Reactive Intermediates in Surface Waters via Satellite Remote Sensing.

Absorption of solar radiation by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in surface waters results in the formation of photochemically produced reactive intermediates (PPRIs) that react with pollutants in water. Knowing the steady-state concentrations of PPRIs ([PPRI]ss) is critical to predicting the persistence of pollutants in sunlit surface waters. CDOM levels (a440) can be measured remotely for lakes over large areas using satellite imagery. Laboratory measurements of [PPRI]ss and apparent quantum yields (Φ) of three PPRIs (3DOM*, 1O2, and •OH) were made for 24 lake samples under simulated sunlight. The total rate of light absorption by the water samples (Ra), the rates of formation (Rf), and [PPRI]ss of 3DOM* and 1O2 linearly increased with increasing a440. The production rate of •OH was linearly correlated with a440, but the steady-state concentration was best fit by a logarithmic function. The relationship between measured a440 and Landsat 8 reflectance was used to map a440 for more than 10 000 lakes across Minnesota. Relationships of a440 with Rf, [PPRIs]ss, and Ra were coupled with satellite-based a440 assessments to map reactive species production rates and concentrations as well as contaminant transformation rates. This study demonstrates the potential for using satellite imagery for estimating contaminant loss via indirect photolysis in lakes.

Regional measurements and spatial/temporal analysis of CDOM in 10,000+ optically variable Minnesota lakes using Landsat 8 imagery.

Information on colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is essential for understanding and managing lakes but is often not available, especially in lake-rich regions where concentrations are often highly variable in time and space. We developed remote sensing methods that can use both Landsat and Sentinel satellite imagery to provide census-level CDOM measurements across the state of Minnesota, USA, a lake-rich landscape with highly varied lake, watershed, and climatic conditions. We evaluated the error of satellite derived CDOM resulting from two atmospheric correction methods with in situ data, and found that both provided substantial improvements over previous methods. We applied CDOM models to 2015 and 2016 Landsat 8 OLI imagery to create 2015 and 2016 Minnesota statewide CDOM maps (reported as absorption coefficients at 440 nm, a440) and used those maps to conduct a geospatial analysis at the ecoregion level. Large differences in a440 among ecoregions were related to predominant land cover/use; lakes in ecoregions with large areas of wetland and forest had significantly higher CDOM levels than lakes in agricultural ecoregions. We compared regional lake CDOM levels between two years with strongly contrasting precipitation (close-to-normal precipitation year in 2015 and much wetter conditions with large storm events in 2016). CDOM levels of lakes in agricultural ecoregions tended to decrease between 2015 and 2016, probably because of dilution by rainfall, and 7% of lakes in these areas decreased in a440 by ≥3 m-1. In two ecoregions with high forest and wetlands cover, a440 increased by >3 m-1 in 28 and 31% of the lakes, probably due to enhanced transport of CDOM from forested wetlands. With appropriate model tuning and validation, the approach we describe could be extended to other regions, providing a method for frequent and comprehensive measurements of CDOM, a dynamic and important variable in surface waters.

Unprocessed Atmospheric Nitrate in Waters of the Northern Forest Region in the U.S. and Canada.

Little is known about the regional extent and variability of nitrate from atmospheric deposition that is transported to streams without biological processing in forests. We measured water chemistry and isotopic tracers (δ18O and δ15N) of nitrate sources across the Northern Forest Region of the U.S. and Canada and reanalyzed data from other studies to determine when, where, and how unprocessed atmospheric nitrate was transported in catchments. These inputs were more widespread and numerous than commonly recognized, but with high spatial and temporal variability. Only 6 of 32 streams had high fractions (>20%) of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate during baseflow. Seventeen had high fractions during stormflow or snowmelt, which corresponded to large fractions in near-surface soil waters or groundwaters, but not deep groundwater. The remaining 10 streams occasionally had some (<20%) unprocessed atmospheric nitrate during stormflow or baseflow. Large, sporadic events may continue to be cryptic due to atmospheric deposition variation among storms and a near complete lack of monitoring for these events. A general lack of observance may bias perceptions of occurrence; sustained monitoring of chronic nitrogen pollution effects on forests with nitrate source apportionments may offer insights needed to advance the science as well as assess regulatory and management schemes.

Controls of Methylmercury Bioaccumulation in Forest Floor Food Webs.

Compared to the extensive research on aquatic ecosystems, very little is known about the sources and trophic transfer of methylmercury (MeHg) in terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we examine energy flow and trophic structure using stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope ratios, respectively, and MeHg levels in basal resources and terrestrial invertebrates from four temperate forest ecosystems. We show that MeHg levels in biota increased significantly ( p < 0.01) with δ13C and δ15N at all sites, implying the importance of both microbially processed diets (with increased δ13C) and trophic level (with increased δ15N) at which organisms feed, on MeHg levels in forest floor biota. The trophic magnification slopes of MeHg (defined as the slope of log10MeHg vs δ15N) for these forest floor food webs (0.20-0.28) were not significantly different ( p > 0.05) from those observed for diverse temperate freshwater systems (0.24 ± 0.07; n = 78), demonstrating for the first time the nearly equivalent efficiencies with which MeHg moves up the food chain in these contrasting ecosystem types. Our results suggest that in situ production of MeHg within the forest floor and efficient biomagnification both elevate MeHg levels in carnivorous invertebrates in temperate forests, which can contribute to significant bioaccumulation of this neurotoxin in terrestrial apex predators.

Iron influence on dissolved color in lakes of the Upper Great Lakes States.

Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), a major component of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool in many lakes, is an important controlling factor in lake ecosystem functioning. Absorption coefficients at 440 nm (a440, m-1), a common measure of CDOM, exhibited strong associations with dissolved iron (Fediss) and DOC in 280 lakes of the Upper Great Lakes States (UGLS: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan), as has been found in Scandinavia and elsewhere. Linear regressions between the three variables on UGLS lake data typically yielded R2 values of 0.6-0.9, suggesting that some underlying common processes influence organic matter and Fediss. Statistical and experimental evidence, however, supports only a minor role for iron contributions to a440 in UGLS lakes. Although both DOC and Fediss were significant variables in linear and log-log regressions on a440, DOC was the stronger predictor; adding Fediss to the linear a440-DOC model improved the R2 only from 0.90 to 0.93. Furthermore, experimental additions of FeIII to colored lake waters had only small effects on a440 (average increase of 0.242 m-1 per 100 µg/L of added FeIII). For 136 visibly stained waters (with a440 > 3.0 m-1), where allochthonous DOM predominates, DOM accounted for 92.3 ± 5.0% of the measured a440 values, and Fediss accounted for the remainder. In 75% of the lakes, Fediss accounted for < 10% of a440, but contributions of 15-30% were observed for 7 river-influenced lakes. Contributions of Fediss in UGLS lakes to specific UV absorbance at 254 nm (SUVA254) generally were also low. Although Fediss accounted for 5-10% of measured SUVA254 in a few samples, on average, 98.1% of the SUVA254 signal was attributable to DOM and only 1.9% to Fediss. DOC predictions from measured a440 were nearly identical to those from a440 corrected to remove Fediss contributions. Overall, variations in Fediss in most UGLS lakes have very small effects on CDOM optical properties, such as a440 and SUVA254, and negligible effects on the accuracy of DOC estimated from a440, data for which can be obtained at broad regional scales by remote sensing methods.

Color, chlorophyll a, and suspended solids effects on Secchi depth in lakes: implications for trophic state assessment.

Secchi depth (SD), a primary metric to assess trophic state, is controlled in many lakes by algal densities, measured as chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration. Two other optically related water quality variables also directly affect SD: non-algal suspended solids (SSNA ) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM, expressed as the absorption coefficient at 440 nm, a440 ). Using a database of ~1,460 samples from ~625 inland lake basins in Minnesota and two other Upper Midwest states, Wisconsin and Michigan, we analyzed relationships among these variables, with special focus on CDOM levels that influence SD values and the Minnesota SD standards used to assess eutrophication impairment of lakes. Log-transformed chl-a, total suspended solids (TSS), and SD were strongly correlated with each other; log(a440 ) had major effects on log(SD) but was only weakly correlated with log(chl-a) and log(TSS). Multiple regression models for log(SD) and 1/SD based on the three driving variables (chl-a, SSNA , and CDOM) explained ~80% of the variance in SD in the whole data set, but substantial differences in the form of the best-fit relationships were found between major ecoregions. High chl-a concentrations (> 50 µg/L) and TSS (> 20 mg/L) rarely occurred in lakes with high CDOM (a440  > ~4 m-1 ), and all lakes with a440  > 8 m-1 had SD ≤ 2.0 m despite low chl-a values (<10 µg/L) in most lakes. Further statistical analyses revealed that CDOM has significant effects on SD at a440 values > ~ 4 m-1 . Thus, SD is not an accurate trophic state metric in moderately to highly colored lakes, and Minnesota's 2-m SD criterion should not be the sole metric to assess eutrophication impairment in warm/cool-water lakes of the Northern Lakes and Forest ecoregion. More generally, trophic state assessments using SD in regions with large landscape sources of CDOM need to account for effects of CDOM on SD.

Road dust biases NDVI and alters edaphic properties in Alaskan arctic tundra.

Increased road-building activity in the arctic has the potential to impact adjacent ecosystems. Roads in permafrost regions are often built atop insulative gravel pads that generate dust plumes, altering soil chemistry and ecosystem function of nearby tundra. Here, we measure edaphic and vegetation characteristics along transects of decreasing dust deposition perpendicular to the Dalton Highway in northern Alaska. We quantify the impact of dust deposition on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a proxy for aboveground plant biomass. Deposition of calcium carbonate-rich dust declined from 1.625 grams m-2 day-1 immediately adjacent to the road, to negligible levels 625 meters away. Along these transects from the road, we found declines in soil moisture and temperature, thaw depth, shrub height, and foliar nitrogen content, indicating that tundra roads create corridors with edaphic conditions favorable to vascular plant growth. At sites nearest the road, dust deposited on leaf surfaces reduced measured NDVI values by 0.24 by blocking reflectance properties of the underlying leaves. Our findings on the impacts of roads and dust deposition on adjacent tundra may aid planning of future infrastructure projects. We caution that dust deposition may negatively bias NDVI-based estimates of plant biomass, especially where unpaved roads are common.

Limitations on using CDOM as a proxy for DOC in temperate lakes.

Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) has been widely studied as part of efforts to improve understanding of the aquatic carbon cycle, by laboratory, in situ, and remote sensing methods. We studied ecoregion-scale differences in CDOM and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to understand variability in organic matter composition and the use of CDOM as a proxy for DOC. Data from 299 lakes across the U.S. Upper Midwest showed that CDOM, measured as absorptivity at 440 nm (a440), correlated strongly with DOC (R2 = 0.81, n = 412). Colored lakes in the Northern Lakes and Forests (NLF) ecoregion drove this relationship. Lakes in the North Central Hardwood Forests (NCHF) had low color (most had a440 < 3 m-1) and weaker CDOM-DOC relationships (R2 = 0.47). Spectral slopes and specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), indicated relatively low aromaticity and non-terrestrial DOM sources in low color lakes. Multiple regression analyses that included total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and CDOM, but not chlorophyll a, improved DOC estimates in low color lakes, suggesting a dominant contribution of non-planktonic sources of low color DOM in these lakes. Our results show that CDOM is a reliable, regional proxy for DOC in lakes where forests and wetlands dominate the landscape and the DOM is primarily terrestrial in origin. Mapping of lake DOC at broad spatial scales by satellite-derived CDOM has lower accuracy in low color lakes.

Metapopulation stability in branching river networks.

Intraspecific population diversity (specifically, spatial asynchrony of population dynamics) is an essential component of metapopulation stability and persistence in nature. In 2D systems, theory predicts that metapopulation stability should increase with ecosystem size (or habitat network size): Larger ecosystems will harbor more diverse subpopulations with more stable aggregate dynamics. However, current theories developed in simplified landscapes may be inadequate to predict emergent properties of branching ecosystems, an overlooked but widespread habitat geometry. Here, we combine theory and analyses of a unique long-term dataset to show that a scale-invariant characteristic of fractal river networks, branching complexity (measured as branching probability), stabilizes watershed metapopulations. In riverine systems, each branch (i.e., tributary) exhibits distinctive ecological dynamics, and confluences serve as "merging" points of those branches. Hence, increased levels of branching complexity should confer a greater likelihood of integrating asynchronous dynamics over the landscape. We theoretically revealed that the stabilizing effect of branching complexity is a consequence of purely probabilistic processes in natural conditions, where within-branch synchrony exceeds among-branch synchrony. Contrary to current theories developed in 2D systems, metapopulation size (a variable closely related to ecosystem size) had vague effects on metapopulation stability. These theoretical predictions were supported by 18-y observations of fish populations across 31 watersheds: Our cross-watershed comparisons revealed consistent stabilizing effects of branching complexity on metapopulations of very different riverine fishes. A strong association between branching complexity and metapopulation stability is likely to be a pervasive feature of branching networks that strongly affects species persistence during rapid environmental changes.

Effects of the hippopotamus on the chemistry and ecology of a changing watershed.

Cross-boundary transfers of nutrients can profoundly shape the ecology of recipient systems. The common hippopotamus, Hippopotamus amphibius, is a significant vector of such subsidies from terrestrial to river ecosystems. We compared river pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius to determine how H. amphibius subsidies shape the chemistry and ecology of aquatic communities. Our study watershed, like many in sub-Saharan Africa, has been severely impacted by anthropogenic water abstraction reducing dry-season flow to zero. We conducted observations for multiple years over wet and dry seasons to identify how hydrological variability influences the impacts of H. amphibius During the wet season, when the river was flowing, we detected no differences in water chemistry and nutrient parameters between pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius Likewise, the diversity and abundance of fish and aquatic insect communities were indistinguishable. During the dry season, however, high-density H. amphibius pools differed drastically in almost all measured attributes of water chemistry and exhibited depressed fish and insect diversity and fish abundance compared with low-density H. amphibius pools. Scaled up to the entire watershed, we estimate that H. amphibius in this hydrologically altered watershed reduces dry-season fish abundance and indices of gamma-level diversity by 41% and 16%, respectively, but appears to promote aquatic invertebrate diversity. Widespread human-driven shifts in hydrology appear to redefine the role of H. amphibius, altering their influence on ecosystem diversity and functioning in a fashion that may be more severe than presently appreciated.

Trees and Streets as Drivers of Urban Stormwater Nutrient Pollution.

Expansion of tree cover is a major management goal in cities because of the substantial benefits provided to people, and potentially to water quality through reduction of stormwater volume by interception. However, few studies have addressed the full range of potential impacts of trees on urban runoff, which includes deposition of nutrient-rich leaf litter onto streets connected to storm drains. We analyzed the influence of trees on stormwater nitrogen and phosphorus export across 19 urban watersheds in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN, U.S.A., and at the scale of individual streets within one residential watershed. Stormwater nutrient concentrations were highly variable across watersheds and strongly related to tree canopy over streets, especially for phosphorus. Stormwater nutrient loads were primarily related to road density, the dominant control over runoff volume. Street canopy exerted opposing effects on loading, where elevated nutrient concentrations from trees near roads outweighed the weak influence of trees on runoff reduction. These results demonstrate that vegetation near streets contributes substantially to stormwater nutrient pollution, and therefore to eutrophication of urban surface waters. Urban landscape design and management that account for trees as nutrient pollution sources could improve water quality outcomes, while allowing cities to enjoy the myriad benefits of urban forests.

Contrasting nitrogen and phosphorus budgets in urban watersheds and implications for managing urban water pollution.

Managing excess nutrients remains a major obstacle to improving ecosystem service benefits of urban waters. To inform more ecologically based landscape nutrient management, we compared watershed inputs, outputs, and retention for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in seven subwatersheds of the Mississippi River in St. Paul, Minnesota. Lawn fertilizer and pet waste dominated N and P inputs, respectively, underscoring the importance of household actions in influencing urban watershed nutrient budgets. Watersheds retained only 22% of net P inputs versus 80% of net N inputs (watershed area-weighted averages, where net inputs equal inputs minus biomass removal) despite relatively low P inputs. In contrast to many nonurban watersheds that exhibit high P retention, these urban watersheds have high street density that enhanced transport of P-rich materials from landscapes to stormwater. High P exports in storm drainage networks and yard waste resulted in net P losses in some watersheds. Comparisons of the N/P stoichiometry of net inputs versus storm drain exports implicated denitrification or leaching to groundwater as a likely fate for retained N. Thus, these urban watersheds exported high quantities of N and P, but via contrasting pathways: P was exported primarily via stormwater runoff, contributing to surface water degradation, whereas N losses additionally contribute to groundwater pollution. Consequently, N management and P management require different strategies, with N management focusing on reducing watershed inputs and P management also focusing on reducing P movement from vegetated landscapes to streets and storm drains.

Arctic shrub growth trajectories differ across soil moisture levels.

The circumpolar expansion of woody deciduous shrubs in arctic tundra alters key ecosystem properties including carbon balance and hydrology. However, landscape-scale patterns and drivers of shrub expansion remain poorly understood, inhibiting accurate incorporation of shrub effects into climate models. Here, we use dendroecology to elucidate the role of soil moisture in modifying the relationship between climate and growth for a dominant deciduous shrub, Salix pulchra, on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. We improve upon previous modeling approaches by using ecological theory to guide model selection for the relationship between climate and shrub growth. Finally, we present novel dendroecology-based estimates of shrub biomass change under a future climate regime, made possible by recently developed shrub allometry models. We find that S. pulchra growth has responded positively to mean June temperature over the past 2.5 decades at both a dry upland tundra site and an adjacent mesic riparian site. For the upland site, including a negative second-order term in the climate-growth model significantly improved explanatory power, matching theoretical predictions of diminishing growth returns to increasing temperature. A first-order linear model fit best at the riparian site, indicating consistent growth increases in response to sustained warming, possibly due to lack of temperature-induced moisture limitation in mesic habitats. These contrasting results indicate that S. pulchra in mesic habitats may respond positively to a wider range of temperature increase than S. pulchra in dry habitats. Lastly, we estimate that a 2°C increase in current mean June temperature will yield a 19% increase in aboveground S. pulchra biomass at the upland site and a 36% increase at the riparian site. Our method of biomass estimation provides an important link toward incorporating dendroecology data into coupled vegetation and climate models.