Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends.

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°-1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality.

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Effects of forest loss and fragmentation on bat-ectoparasite interactions.

Human land use causes habitat loss and fragmentation, influencing host-parasite associations through changes in infestation rates, host mortality and possibly local extinction. Bat-ectoparasite interactions are an important host-parasite model possibly affected by such changes, as this system acts as both reservoirs and vectors of several pathogens that can infect different wild and domestic species. This study aimed to assess how the prevalence and abundance of bat ectoparasites respond to forest loss, fragmentation, and edge length. Bats and ectoparasites were sampled at twenty sites, forming a gradient of forest cover, in southwestern Brazil during two wet (2015 and 2016) and two dry (2016 and 2017) seasons. Effects of landscape metrics on host abundance as well as parasite prevalence and abundance were assessed through structural equation models. Nine host-parasite associations provided sufficient data for analyses, including one tick and eight flies on four bat species. Forest cover positively influenced the prevalence or abundance of three fly species, but negatively influenced one fly and the tick species. Prevalence or abundance responded positively to edge length for three fly species, and negatively for the tick. In turn, number of fragments influenced the prevalence or abundance of four fly species, two positively and two negatively. Our results support species-specific responses of ectoparasites to landscape features, and a tendency of host-generalist ticks to benefit from deforestation while most host-specialist flies are disadvantaged. Differences in host traits and abundance, along with parasite life cycles and environmental conditions, are possible explanations to our findings.

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes.

Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.

The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland.

Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic activities to the substantial heat-related mortality observed in recent times. Here we combined methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022. We first estimated heat-mortality association in each canton and age/sex population between 1990 and 2017 in a two-stage time-series analysis. We then calculated the mortality attributed to heat in the summer of 2022 using observed mortality, and compared it with the hypothetical heat-related burden that would have occurred in absence of human-induced climate change. This counterfactual scenario was derived by regressing the Swiss average temperature against global mean temperature in both observations and CMIP6 models. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151-1068] due to heat between June and August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133-644]) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in the 2022 summer in Switzerland.

Global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation.

Forests can store large amounts of carbon and provide essential ecosystem services. Massive tree planting is thus sometimes portrayed as a panacea to mitigate climate change and related impacts. Recent controversies about the potential benefits and drawbacks of forestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts. Here we discuss how global-scale forestation and deforestation change the Earth's energy balance, thereby affect the global atmospheric circulation and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. We show that global-scale forestation leads to a weakening and poleward shift of the Northern mid-latitude circulation, slows-down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and affects the strength of the Hadley cell, whereas deforestation leads to reversed changes. Consequently, both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, clouds, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate.

ATLANTIC POLLINATION: a data set of flowers and interaction with nectar-feeding vertebrates from the Atlantic Forest.

Flowering plant species and their nectar-feeding vertebrates exemplify some of the most remarkable biotic interactions in the Neotropics. In the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, several species of birds (especially hummingbirds), bats, and non-flying mammals, as well as one lizard feed on nectar, often act as pollinators and contribute to seed output of flowering plants. We present a dataset containing information on flowering plants visited by nectar-feeding vertebrates and sampled at 166 localities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. This dataset provides information on 1902 unique interactions among 515 species of flowering plants and 129 species of potential vertebrate pollinators and the patterns of species diversity across latitudes. All plant-vertebrate interactions compiled were recorded through direct observations of visits, and no inferences of pollinators based on floral syndromes were included. We also provide information on the most common plant traits used to understand the interactions between flowers and nectar-feeding vertebrates: plant growth form, corolla length, rate of nectar production per hour in bagged flowers, nectar concentration, flower color and shape, time of anthesis, presence or absence of perceptible fragrance by human, and flowering phenology as well as the plant's threat status by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification. For the vertebrates, status of threat by IUCN classification, body mass, bill or rostrum size are provided. Information on the frequency of visits and pollen deposition on the vertebrate's body is provided from the original source when available. The highest number of unique interactions is recorded for birds (1771) followed by bats (110). For plants, Bromeliaceae contains the highest number of unique interactions (606), followed by Fabaceae (242) and Gesneriaceae (104). It is evident that there was geographical bias of the studies throughout the southeast of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and that most effort was directed to flower-hummingbird interactions. However, it reflects a worldwide tendency of more plants interacting with birds compared with other vertebrate species. The lack of similar protocols among studies to collect basic data limits the comparisons among areas and generalizations. Nevertheless, this dataset represents a notable effort to organize and highlight the importance of vertebrate pollinators in this hotspot of biodiversity on Earth and represents the data currently available. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set. Please cite this data paper when the data are used in publications or scientific events.

Wild meat consumption in tropical forests spares a significant carbon footprint from the livestock production sector.

Whether sustainable or not, wild meat consumption is a reality for millions of tropical forest dwellers. Yet estimates of spared greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from consuming wild meat, rather than protein from the livestock sector, have not been quantified. We show that a mean per capita wild meat consumption of 41.7 kg yr-1 for a population of ~ 150,000 residents at 49 Amazonian and Afrotropical forest sites can spare ~ 71 MtCO2-eq annually under a bovine beef substitution scenario, but only ~ 3 MtCO2-eq yr-1 if this demand is replaced by poultry. Wild meat offtake by these communities could generate US$3M or US$185K in carbon credit revenues under an optimistic scenario (full compliance with the Paris Agreement by 2030; based on a carbon price of US$50/tCO2-eq) and US$1M or US$77K under a conservative scenario (conservative carbon price of US$20.81/tCO2-eq), representing considerable incentives for forest conservation and potential revenues for local communities. However, the wild animal protein consumption of ~ 43% of all consumers in our sample was below the annual minimum per capita rate required to prevent human malnutrition. We argue that managing wild meat consumption can serve the interests of climate change mitigation efforts in REDD + accords through avoided GHG emissions from the livestock sector, but this requires wildlife management that can be defined as verifiably sustainable.

Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability.

Climate warming is unequivocal and exceeds internal climate variability. However, estimates of the magnitude of decadal-scale variability from models and observations are uncertain, limiting determination of the fraction of warming attributable to external forcing. Here, we use statistical learning to extract a fingerprint of climate change that is robust to different model representations and magnitudes of internal variability. We find a best estimate forced warming trend of 0.8°C over the past 40 years, slightly larger than observed. It is extremely likely that at least 85% is attributable to external forcing based on the median variability across climate models. Detection remains robust even when evaluated against models with high variability and if decadal-scale variability were doubled. This work addresses a long-standing limitation in attributing warming to external forcing and opens up opportunities even in the case of large model differences in decadal-scale variability, model structural uncertainty, and limited observational records.

A Revision of Parasecia (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) With a Description of a New Species, a New Genus and a Key to Species.

Chiggers of the genus Parasecia Loomis parasitize birds, mammals, and reptiles in the Nearctic and Neotropical regions. In the present review, we examined 18 species previously included in the genus, 15 of them being retained in the genus Parasecia, one genus is created, Nahuacarus bulbocalcarn. gen. (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae), and new combinations are proposed for two species: Lorillatum lasiurusn. comb. and Lorillatum orphanan. comb. (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae). In addition, Parasecia kansasensis (Loomis) (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) is synonymized with Parasecia gurneyi (Ewing) (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae), Parasecia gilbetoin. sp. (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) is described and new locality and host records are added for Parasecia chara (Wharton), Parasecia longicalcar (Brennan and Jones), Parasecia manueli (Brennan and Jones), and Parasecia thalurania (Brennan) (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae).

Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses.

There remains large intersimulation spread in the hydrologic responses to tropical volcanic eruptions, and identifying the sources of diverse responses has important implications for assessing the side effects of solar geoengineering and improving decadal predictions. Here, we show that the intersimulation spread in the global monsoon drying response strongly relates to diverse El Niño responses to tropical eruptions. Most of the coupled climate models simulate El Niño-like equatorial eastern Pacific warming after volcanic eruptions but with different amplitudes, which drive a large spread of summer monsoon weakening and corresponding precipitation reduction. Two factors are further identified for the diverse El Niño responses. Different volcanic forcings induce systematic differences in the Maritime Continent drying and subsequent westerly winds over equatorial western Pacific, varying El Niño intensity. The internally generated warm water volume over the equatorial western Pacific in the pre-eruption month also contributes to the diverse El Niño development.

Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds.

In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves-that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days-in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.

Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models.

Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14 and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995-2014. Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target.

Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation.

Irrigation affects climate conditions - and especially hot extremes - in various regions across the globe. Yet how these climatic effects compare to other anthropogenic forcings is largely unknown. Here we provide observational and model evidence that expanding irrigation has dampened historical anthropogenic warming during hot days, with particularly strong effects over South Asia. We show that irrigation expansion can explain the negative correlation between global observed changes in daytime summer temperatures and present-day irrigation extent. While global warming increases the likelihood of hot extremes almost globally, irrigation can regionally cancel or even reverse the effects of all other forcings combined. Around one billion people (0.79-1.29) currently benefit from this dampened increase in hot extremes because irrigation massively expanded throughout the 20[Formula: see text] century. Our results therefore highlight that irrigation substantially reduced human exposure to warming of hot extremes but question whether this benefit will continue towards the future.

Bat flies aggregation on Artibeus planirostris hosts in the Pantanal floodplain and surrounding plateaus.

For parasites in natural systems, the most common pattern of spatial distribution is aggregation among hosts. The main causes of such aggregation are variable exposure of hosts to parasites and heterogeneity in host susceptibility. The objective of this study was to determine if there are differences in the aggregation pattern of two species of ectoparasitic flies between the Pantanal and Cerrado regions of Brazil on the bat Artibeus planirostris. We collected the ectoparasites from bats captured between 2002 and 2017 with mist nets in 21 sites in the Pantanal and 15 sites in the surrounding plateaus. The results showed that the aggregation of ectoparasitic flies in Pantanal was more pronounced than in Cerrado. The discrepancy aggregation index (D) of the bat fly Megistopoda aranea was 0.877 in Pantanal and 0.724 in Cerrado. The D values of Aspidoptera phyllostomatis was even higher, with 0.916 and 0.848 in the Pantanal and Cerrado, respectively. Differences in the shelters used may be the main factor shaping variation in aggregation, since the Pantanal does not have rock formations, with only foliage, crowns and hollow tree trunks. These differences likely affect host exposure to the parasites, leading to an increase in parasite aggregation.

Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world.

The Paris agreement was adopted to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate the event-to-event hydroclimatic intensity, where an event is a pair of adjacent wet and dry spells, under future warming scenarios. According to a set of targeted multi-model large ensemble experiments, event-wise intensification will significantly increase globally for an additional 0.5 °C warming beyond 1.5 °C. In high latitudinal regions of the North American continent and Eurasia, this intensification is likely to involve overwhelming increases in wet spell intensity. Western and Eastern North America will likely experience more intense wet spells with negligible changes of dry spells. For the Mediterranean region, enhancement of dry spells seems to be dominating compared to the decrease in wet spell strength, and this will lead to an overall event-wise intensification. Furthermore, the extreme intensification could be 10 times stronger than the mean intensification. The high damage potential of such drastic changes between flood and drought conditions poses a major challenge to adaptation, and the findings suggest that risks could be substantially reduced by achieving a 1.5 °C target.

Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals.

In key European cities, stabilizing climate warming at 1.5 °C would decrease extreme heat-related mortality by 15-22% per summer compared with stabilization at 2 °C.

Marine heatwaves under global warming.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3-11 and fisheries12-14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.