Field Analysis of Biological Factors Associated With Sites at High and Low to Moderate Risk for Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Winter Activity in Florida.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is the most pathogenic arbovirus endemic to the United States. Studies have demonstrated Florida's role as a regional reservoir for the virus and its ability to support year-round transmission. Previous research has developed risk index models for mapping locations most at risk for EEEV transmission. We compared vector abundance, vector feeding behavior, potential host species, and fauna presence at high versus low-moderate risk sites during the winter and spring. Predicted high-risk sites had a significantly greater abundance of mosquitoes overall, including Culiseta melanura (Coquillett) (Diptera: Culicidae), the primary enzootic vector of EEEV. Twenty host species were identified from Cs. melanura bloodmeals, with the majority taken from avian species. Culiseta melanura largely fed upon the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis (Passeriformes: Cardinalidae)), which accounted for 20-24.4% of the bloodmeals obtained from this species in years 1 and 2, respectively. One EEEV-positive mosquito pool (Cs. melanura) and nine EEEV seropositive sentinel chickens were confirmed during winter-spring collections from high-risk sites; no seropositive chickens nor mosquito pools were found at the low-moderate risk sites. These results suggest that high-risk sites for EEEV activity are characterized by habitats that support populations of Cs. melanura and which may also provide ample opportunities to feed upon Northern Cardinals. The overall low level of mosquito populations during the winter also suggests that control of Cs. melanura populations in winter at high-risk sites may prove effective in reducing EEEV transmission during the peak summer season.

Modelling distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus using climate, host density and interspecies competition.

Florida faces the challenge of repeated introduction and autochthonous transmission of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Empirically-based predictive models of the spatial distribution of these species would aid surveillance and vector control efforts. To predict the occurrence and abundance of these species, we fit a mixed-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression to a mosquito surveillance dataset with records from more than 200,000 trap days, representative of 53% of the land area and ranging from 2004 to 2018 in Florida. We found an asymmetrical competitive interaction between adult populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for the sampled sites. Wind speed was negatively associated with the occurrence and abundance of both vectors. Our model predictions show high accuracy (72.9% to 94.5%) in validation tests leaving out a random 10% subset of sites and data since 2017, suggesting a potential for predicting the distribution of the two Aedes vectors.