Impact of redefining statistical significance on P-hacking and false positive rates: An agent-based model.

In recent years, concern has grown about the inappropriate application and interpretation of P values, especially the use of P<0.05 to denote "statistical significance" and the practice of P-hacking to produce results below this threshold and selectively reporting these in publications. Such behavior is said to be a major contributor to the large number of false and non-reproducible discoveries found in academic journals. In response, it has been proposed that the threshold for statistical significance be changed from 0.05 to 0.005. The aim of the current study was to use an evolutionary agent-based model comprised of researchers who test hypotheses and strive to increase their publication rates in order to explore the impact of a 0.005 P value threshold on P-hacking and published false positive rates. Three scenarios were examined, one in which researchers tested a single hypothesis, one in which they tested multiple hypotheses using a P<0.05 threshold, and one in which they tested multiple hypotheses using a P<0.005 threshold. Effects sizes were varied across models and output assessed in terms of researcher effort, number of hypotheses tested and number of publications, and the published false positive rate. The results supported the view that a more stringent P value threshold can serve to reduce the rate of published false positive results. Researchers still engaged in P-hacking with the new threshold, but the effort they expended increased substantially and their overall productivity was reduced, resulting in a decline in the published false positive rate. Compared to other proposed interventions to improve the academic publishing system, changing the P value threshold has the advantage of being relatively easy to implement and could be monitored and enforced with minimal effort by journal editors and peer reviewers.

'Walk Buds': A walking programme to increase physical activity, physical fitness and emotional wellbeing, in 9-13 yr old children with intellectual disability. A study protocol for a clustered RCT.

BACKGROUND: Young people with intellectual disabilities are traditionally less physically fit compared to their non-disabled peers. While the health benefits of increasing physical activity are evident, there remains a lack of evidence on how to increase physical activity and reduce sedentary behaviour in young people with intellectual disabilities. Walking interventions, including those delivered in school settings, have been found to significantly increase physical activity levels of young people without disabilities. However, to date there has been a paucity of studies testing walking interventions for young people with intellectual disabilities in school settings. In an earlier study we developed the Walk Buds school-based walking programme for children with intellectual disability (aged 9-13 yrs), which incorporated a paired buddy component. AIM: We plan to conduct a clustered feasibility RCT that will enable us to examine the acceptability of the Walk Buds programme, randomisation, and outcome measures, check the fidelity programme delivery, and identify the facilitators and barriers to the implementation of the programme. METHODS: This study is a two-arm, cRCT feasibility trial where eight schools will be randomised into either an intervention arm (Walk Buds) or an 'exercise as usual' arm. We are aiming to recruit between 130 and 160 young people with intellectual disabilities. Outcome measures will be recorded at baseline and three-months post-intervention. A process evaluation will explore the factors that could impact on the internal and external validity of a future cRCT and the intervention's logic model. DISCUSSION: Walk Buds is the first theoretically underpinned, peer-led, multi-component, manualised school-based walking programme that aims to increase physical activity, physical fitness, and emotional wellbeing in 9-13 yr old children with intellectual disabilities.

Barriers and facilitators of physical activity in adolescents with intellectual disabilities: An analysis informed by the COM-B model.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents with intellectual disabilities are insufficiently physically active. Where interventions have been developed and delivered, these have had limited effectiveness, and often lack a theoretical underpinning. AIM: Through application of the COM-B model, our aim is to explore the factors influencing adolescent physical activity within schools. METHODS: A qualitative methodology, using focus groups with students who have mild/moderate intellectual disabilities, their parents'/carers' and teachers'. The COM-B model provided the lens through which the data were collected and analysed. RESULTS: We identified of a range of individual, interpersonal, and environmental factors influencing physical activity, across all six COM-B constructs, within the context of the 'school-system'. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to use the COM-B model to explore school-based physical activity behaviour, for adolescents with intellectual disabilities. Identification of such physical activity behavioural determinants can support the development of effective and sustainable interventions.

The academic journey of students with specific learning difficulties undertaking pre-registration nursing programmes in the UK: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of nursing students with specific learning difficulties enrolled on pre-registration nursing programmes and the impact that this diagnosis has on their programme outcomes are currently unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to report on data that explored and compared the academic journey of students with and without learning difficulties on pre-registration nursing degree programmes. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort design. SETTINGS: One university in the UK offering BSc Honours Degree programmes in Adult and Mental Health Nursing. PARTICIPANTS: Pre-registration adult and mental health nursing students (n = 1152) enrolled in the programmes between 2012 and 2016. METHODS: Pearson's Correlation, ANOVA and crosstabulation were used to identify the differences and associations between each group of students with the outcome variables grade percent average and programme completion. RESULTS: A total of 12.5% of the students were identified as having a diagnosed specific learning difficulty and were entitled to reasonable adjustments. The analysis shows that their grade percent average and completion rates are equivalent to students without a specific learning difficulty. CONCLUSIONS: The differences between students with a specific learning difficulty and those without are small across the variables measured. Reasonable adjustments appear to mitigate the learning difficulties that students with specific learning difficulties have. Educators need to continue to promote ways of identifying students with specific learning difficulties as early as possible in the student's academic journey. Responsive adjustments in teaching and assessment in theory and practice components should be implemented to ensure that all students' opportunities to succeed are maximised.

An exploration of the predictive validity of selection criteria on progress outcomes for pre-registration nursing programmes-A systematic review.

AIM: To identify the selection methods currently being used for pre-registration nursing programmes and to assess the predictive power that these methods have on students' success. BACKGROUND: Research into selection methods in nursing education is beginning to emerge, yet it is unclear which methods are most predictive of students' success. DESIGN: A systematic review of the literature. METHODS: A systematic search of ten electronic databases: CINAHL, MEDLINE Ovid, EMBASE, PROQUEST Health and Medical, PROQUEST Education, COCHRANE Library, Web of Science, ASSIA, SCOPUS and PROSPERO was conducted. The results were expanded by the handsearching of journals, reference lists and grey literature. The PRISMA statement guided the review. Studies published in English between January 2008-March 2020 were eligible for inclusion, and quality assessment was undertaken using the CASP Checklist for Cohort Studies. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies met the criteria for inclusion. A range of selection methods was identified including prior academic achievement, admissions tests, interviews, emotional intelligence tests, personal statements and previous healthcare experience. Prior academic achievement and admissions tests appear to be the selection methods most predictive of student success. The evidence surrounding other selection methods such as interviews and personal statements is less conclusive. CONCLUSION: Selecting individuals with the appropriate knowledge, interpersonal skills and personal qualities needed to complete an undergraduate nursing programme is an important part of the role of nurse educators. This review shows that a wide variety of selection methods are used across different institutions, some of which are more effective than others in predicting student outcomes. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Further research is required to justify the continued use of some commonly used selection methods for undergraduate nursing programmes. Selection models that combine various types of selection criteria with predictive power appear to increase the probability of selecting students that will have successful outcomes.

Political economy of renewable resource federalism.

The authority to manage natural capital often follows political boundaries rather than ecological. This mismatch can lead to unsustainable outcomes, as spillovers from one management area to the next may create adverse incentives for local decision making, even within a single country. At the same time, one-size-fits-all approaches of federal (centralized) authority can fail to respond to state (decentralized) heterogeneity and can result in inefficient economic or detrimental ecological outcomes. Here we utilize a spatially explicit coupled natural-human system model of a fishery to illuminate trade-offs posed by the choice between federal vs. state control of renewable resources. We solve for the dynamics of fishing effort and fish stocks that result from different approaches to federal management that vary in terms of flexibility. Adapting numerical methods from engineering, we also solve for the open-loop Nash equilibrium characterizing state management outcomes, where each state anticipates and responds to the choices of the others. We consider traditional federalism questions (state vs. federal management) as well as more contemporary questions about the economic and ecological impacts of shifting regulatory authority from one level to another. The key mechanisms behind the trade-offs include whether differences in local conditions are driven by biological or economic mechanisms; degree of flexibility embedded in the federal management; the spatial and temporal distribution of economic returns across states; and the status-quo management type. While simple rules-of-thumb are elusive, our analysis reveals the complex political economy dimensions of renewable resource federalism.

Reducing training frequency from 3 or 4 sessions/week to 2 sessions/week does not attenuate improvements in maximal aerobic capacity with reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT).

In the present randomised-controlled trial we investigated the effect of reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT) training frequency (2, 3, or 4 sessions/week for 6 weeks) on maximal aerobic capacity in 42 inactive individuals (13 women; mean ± SD age: 25 ± 5 years, maximal aerobic capacity: 35 ± 5 mL·kg-1·min-1). Changes in maximal aerobic capacity were not significantly different between the 3 groups (2 sessions/week: +10.2%; 3 sessions/week: +8.1%; 4 sessions per week: +7.3%). In conclusion, a training frequency of 2 sessions/week is sufficient for REHIT to improve maximal aerobic capacity. Novelty We demonstrate that reducing REHIT training frequency from 3 or 4 to 2 sessions/week does not attenuate improvements in the key health marker of maximal aerobic capacity.

Every Minute Counts: Patterns and Times of Physical Activity Participation in Children From Socially Disadvantaged Areas in Ireland.

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate daily physical activity (PA) patterns of 8- to 9-year-old Irish children from socially disadvantaged areas. Methods: Children (N = 408) were asked to wear an ActiGraph accelerometer for a minimum of 4 days. Based on mean daily moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA accumulation, participants were grouped into sex-specific quartiles (Q4, most active; Q1, least active). Principal component analysis was used to identify distinct time blocks for weekdays and weekend days. Results: Overall, 213 participants (8.7 [0.5] y) met accelerometer inclusion criteria. Of these, 56.7% met the 60 minutes of moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA per day guidelines, with males statistically significantly more likely to do so than females (P < .01). Principal component analysis revealed 3 distinct time periods on weekdays and 4 distinct periods on weekends that children were active. The total difference in moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA accumulation between Q4 (most active) and Q1 (least active) was greatest in the after-school time period (male: 49 min and female: 33 min) on weekdays and in the evening time period on weekends (male: 33 min and female: 19 min). Conclusions: After-school and weekend evenings are critical "activity rich" time periods in terms of the gap between our most and least active disadvantaged children.

The effect of sport for LIFE: all island in children from low socio-economic status: a clustered randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: School-based interventions offer the opportunity to increase physical activity, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and nutritional behaviours, yet methodological limitations hinder current research, particularly among under-represented children from low socio-economic status (SES). The aim was to determine the effect of a 12-week physical activity programme, Sport for LIFE: All Island (SFL:AI), on physical activity levels, HRQOL, and nutritional attitudes and behaviours in children of low SES across the island of Ireland. METHODS: A 2 (groups) × 4 (data collection points) clustered randomised controlled trial was conducted comprising an intervention group who received SFL:AI for 12 weeks, and a waiting-list control condition. In total 740 children (381 boys, 359 girls) aged 8-9 years (mean = 8.7; SD = .50) from 27 schools across four regions of Ireland (Ulster, Leinster, Connacht and Munster) took part. Physical activity was measured by accelerometers, and children completed a validated questionnaire at baseline, mid (i.e. 6-weeks), post-intervention (i.e. 12 weeks) and follow-up (i.e. 3 months post-intervention). RESULTS: No significant interaction effects for the intervention were found on any of the study outcomes. Main effects were reported for physical well-being, parental relations and autonomy and financial resources, as well as sweetened beverages, environment and intake, and attitude to vegetables. However, these changes were not statistically attributable to the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: It remains unclear if school-based physical activity interventions can improve HRQOL through physical activity with children from low SES. Logistical and methodological considerations are outlined to explore the null effect of the programme, and to provide suggestions for future research and practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number: ISRCTN76261698 . Name of registry: ICRCTN. Date of registration: 23/08/2017. Date of enrolment: September 2014.

Anticipated Task Difficulty Provokes Pace Conservation and Slower Running Performance.

PURPOSE: Models of self-paced endurance performance suggest that accurate knowledge of the exercise end-point influences pace-related decision making. No studies have examined the effects of anticipated task difficulty during equidistant endurance activities. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of anticipated task difficulty on pacing, psychological, and physiological responses during running time trials. METHODS: Twenty-eight trained runners completed three self-paced 3000-m time trials. The first was a baseline time trial completed on a 0% treadmill gradient. Time trials 2 and 3 were counterbalanced. Before a known incline time trial, anticipated to be more difficult, subjects were accurately informed that the gradient would increase to 7% for the final 800 m. Before an equivalent, unknown incline (UI) time trial subjects were deceptively informed that the gradient would remain at 0% throughout. RESULTS: Expressed relative to baseline, running speed was 2.44% slower (d = -0.47) over the first 2200 m during known incline (KI) time trial than UI time trial. Effort perception, affective valence, heart rate, and blood lactate did not differ between time trials. Initial running speed during KI was related to pretrial motivation, pretrial vigor, perceived effort, and affective valence (all r ≥ 0.382). No such relationships existed during UI. More subjects also reported a conscious focus on pacing during KI. CONCLUSIONS: An anticipated increase in task difficulty provoked pace conservation during 3000 m running time trials. The reduced pace may have resulted from greater task uncertainty and consciously aware, effort- and affect-based decisions to conserve energy and maintain hedonic state during KI. The findings add to theoretical understandings of factors that influence pacing during endurance activity. Consequently, recommendations to minimize the potentially deleterious effects of anticipated increases in task difficulty are provided.

Extremely short duration interval exercise improves 24-h glycaemia in men with type 2 diabetes.

PURPOSE: Reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT) is a genuinely time-efficient exercise intervention that improves aerobic capacity and blood pressure in men with type 2 diabetes. However, the acute effects of REHIT on 24-h glycaemia have not been examined. METHODS: 11 men with type 2 diabetes (mean ± SD: age, 52 ± 6 years; BMI, 29.7 ± 3.1 kg/m2; HbA1c, 7.0 ± 0.8%) participated in a randomised, four-trial crossover study, with continual interstitial glucose measurements captured during a 24-h dietary-standardised period following either (1) no exercise (CON); (2) 30 min of continuous exercise (MICT); (3) 10 × 1 min at ~ 90 HRmax (HIIT; time commitment, ~ 25 min); and (4) 2 × 20 s 'all-out' sprints (REHIT; time commitment, 10 min). RESULTS: Compared to CON, mean 24-h glucose was lower following REHIT (mean ± 95%CI: - 0.58 ± 0.41 mmol/L, p = 0.008, d = 0.55) and tended to be lower with MICT (- 0.37 ± 0.41 mmol/L, p = 0.08, d = 0.35), but was not significantly altered following HIIT (- 0.37 ± 0.59 mmol/L, p = 0.31, d = 0.35). This seemed to be largely driven by a lower glycaemic response (area under the curve) to dinner following both REHIT and MICT (- 11%, p < 0.05 and d > 0.9 for both) but not HIIT (- 4%, p = 0.22, d = 0.38). Time in hyperglycaemia appeared to be reduced with all three exercise conditions compared with CON (REHIT: - 112 ± 63 min, p = 0.002, d = 0.50; MICT: -115 ± 127 min, p = 0.08, d = 0.50; HIIT - 125 ± 122 min, p = 0.04, d = 0.54), whilst indices of glycaemic variability were not significantly altered. CONCLUSION: REHIT may offer a genuinely time-efficient exercise option for improving 24-h glycaemia in men with type 2 diabetes and warrants further study.

Decreasing sprint duration from 20 to 10 s during reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT) attenuates the increase in maximal aerobic capacity but has no effect on affective and perceptual responses.

Recent studies have demonstrated that modifying the "classic" 6 × 30-s "all-out" sprint interval training protocol by incorporating either shorter sprints (6 × 10-s or 15-s sprints) or fewer sprints (e.g., 2 × 20-s sprints; reduced-exertion high-intensity interval training (REHIT)) does not attenuate the training-induced improvements in maximal aerobic capacity. The aim of the present study was to determine if reducing the sprint duration in the REHIT protocol from 20 s to 10 s per sprint influences acute affective responses and the change in maximal aerobic capacity following training. Thirty-six sedentary or recreationally active participants (17 women; mean ± SD; age: 22 ± 3 years; body mass index: 24.5 ± 4.6 kg·m-2; maximal aerobic capacity: 37 ± 8 mL·kg-1·min-1) were randomised to a group performing a "standard" REHIT protocol involving 2 × 20-s sprints or a group who performed 2 × 10-s sprints. Maximal aerobic capacity was determined before and after 6 weeks of 3 weekly training sessions. Acute affective responses and perceived exertion were assessed during training. Greater increases in maximal aerobic capacity were observed for the group performing 20-s sprints (2.77 ± 0.75 to 3.04 ± 0.75 L·min-1; +10%) compared with the group performing 10-s sprints (2.58 ± 0.57 vs. 2.67 ± 3.04 L·min-1; +4%; group × time interaction effect: p < 0.05; d = 1.06). Positive affect and the mood state vigour increased postexercise, while tension, depression, and total mood disturbance decreased, and negative affect remained unchanged. Affective responses and perceived exertion were not altered by training and were not different between groups. In conclusion, reducing sprint duration in the REHIT protocol from 20 s to 10 s attenuates improvements in maximal aerobic capacity, and does not result in more positive affective responses or lower perceived exertion.

Testing the psychometric properties of Kidscreen-27 with Irish children of low socio-economic status.

BACKGROUND: Kidscreen-27 was developed as part of a cross-cultural European Union-funded project to standardise the measurement of children's health-related quality of life. Yet, research has reported mixed evidence for the hypothesised 5-factor model, and no confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) has been conducted on the instrument with children of low socio-economic status (SES) across Ireland (Northern and Republic). METHOD: The data for this study were collected as part of a clustered randomised controlled trial. A total of 663 (347 male, 315 female) 8-9-year-old children (M = 8.74, SD = .50) of low SES took part. A 5- and modified 7-factor CFA models were specified using the maximum likelihood estimation. A nested Chi-square difference test was conducted to compare the fit of the models. Internal consistency and floor and ceiling effects were also examined. RESULTS: CFA found that the hypothesised 5-factor model was an unacceptable fit. However, the modified 7-factor model was supported. A nested Chi-square difference test confirmed that the fit of the 7-factor model was significantly better than that of the 5-factor model. Internal consistency was unacceptable for just one scale. Ceiling effects were present in all but one of the factors. CONCLUSIONS: Future research should apply the 7-factor model with children of low socio-economic status. Such efforts would help monitor the health status of the population.

On the Effectiveness of Social Norms Intervention in College Drinking: The Roles of Identity Verification and Peer Influence.

BACKGROUND: The application of social norms theory in the study of college drinking centers on the ideas that incorrect perceptions of drinking norms encourage problematic drinking behavior and that correcting misperceptions can mitigate problems. The design and execution of social norms interventions can be improved with a deeper understanding of causal mechanisms connecting misperception to drinking behavior. METHODS: We develop an agent-based computational simulation that uses identity control theory and peer influence (PI) to model interactions that affect drinking. Using data from the College Alcohol Survey and Social Norms Marketing Research Project, we inform model parameters for agent drinking identities and perceptions. We simulate social norms campaigns that reach progressively larger fractions of the student population, and we consider the strength of the campaign in terms of changing student perception and resulting behavior. RESULTS: We observe a general reduction in heavy episodic drinking (HED) as students are affected by the intervention. As campaigns reached larger fractions of students, the reduction rate diminishes, in some cases actually making a slight reverse. The way in which students "take the message to heart" can have a significant impact as well: The psychological factors involved in identity control and PI have both positive and negative effects on HED rates. With whom agents associate at drinking events also impacts drinking behavior and intervention effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations suggest that reducing misperception can reduce HED. When agents adhere strongly to identity verification and when misperceptions affect identity appraisals, social norms campaigns can bring about large reductions. PI, self-monitoring, and socializing with like-drinking peers appear to moderate the effect.

Parameter Estimation for Gene Regulatory Networks from Microarray Data: Cold Shock Response in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

We investigated the dynamics of a gene regulatory network controlling the cold shock response in budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The medium-scale network, derived from published genome-wide location data, consists of 21 transcription factors that regulate one another through 31 directed edges. The expression levels of the individual transcription factors were modeled using mass balance ordinary differential equations with a sigmoidal production function. Each equation includes a production rate, a degradation rate, weights that denote the magnitude and type of influence of the connected transcription factors (activation or repression), and a threshold of expression. The inverse problem of determining model parameters from observed data is our primary interest. We fit the differential equation model to published microarray data using a penalized nonlinear least squares approach. Model predictions fit the experimental data well, within the 95% confidence interval. Tests of the model using randomized initial guesses and model-generated data also lend confidence to the fit. The results have revealed activation and repression relationships between the transcription factors. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the model is most sensitive to changes in the production rate parameters, weights, and thresholds of Yap1, Rox1, and Yap6, which form a densely connected core in the network. The modeling results newly suggest that Rap1, Fhl1, Msn4, Rph1, and Hsf1 play an important role in regulating the early response to cold shock in yeast. Our results demonstrate that estimation for a large number of parameters can be successfully performed for nonlinear dynamic gene regulatory networks using sparse, noisy microarray data.

Habitat specialization in tropical continental shelf demersal fish assemblages.

The implications of shallow water impacts such as fishing and climate change on fish assemblages are generally considered in isolation from the distribution and abundance of these fish assemblages in adjacent deeper waters. We investigate the abundance and length of demersal fish assemblages across a section of tropical continental shelf at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia, to identify fish and fish habitat relationships across steep gradients in depth and in different benthic habitat types. The assemblage composition of demersal fish were assessed from baited remote underwater stereo-video samples (n = 304) collected from 16 depth and habitat combinations. Samples were collected across a depth range poorly represented in the literature from the fringing reef lagoon (1-10 m depth), down the fore reef slope to the reef base (10-30 m depth) then across the adjacent continental shelf (30-110 m depth). Multivariate analyses showed that there were distinctive fish assemblages and different sized fish were associated with each habitat/depth category. Species richness, MaxN and diversity declined with depth, while average length and trophic level increased. The assemblage structure, diversity, size and trophic structure of demersal fishes changes from shallow inshore habitats to deeper water habitats. More habitat specialists (unique species per habitat/depth category) were associated with the reef slope and reef base than other habitats, but offshore sponge-dominated habitats and inshore coral-dominated reef also supported unique species. This suggests that marine protected areas in shallow coral-dominated reef habitats may not adequately protect those species whose depth distribution extends beyond shallow habitats, or other significant elements of demersal fish biodiversity. The ontogenetic habitat partitioning which is characteristic of many species, suggests that to maintain entire species life histories it is necessary to protect corridors of connected habitats through which fish can migrate.

Forecasting the effect of the Amethyst initiative on college drinking.

BACKGROUND: A number of college presidents have endorsed the Amethyst Initiative, a call to consider lowering the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). Our objective is to forecast the effect of the Amethyst Initiative on college drinking. METHODS: A system model of college drinking simulates MLDA changes through (i) a decrease in heavy episodic drinking (HED) because of the lower likelihood of students drinking in unsupervised settings where they model irresponsible drinking (misperception), and (ii) an increase in overall drinking among currently underage students because of increased social availability of alcohol (wetness). RESULTS: For the proportion of HEDs on campus, effects of large decreases in misperception of responsible drinking behavior were more than offset by modest increases in wetness. CONCLUSIONS: For the effect of lowering the MLDA, it appears that increases in social availability of alcohol have a stronger impact on drinking behavior than decreases in misperceptions.

Heavy episodic drinking on college campuses: does changing the legal drinking age make a difference?

OBJECTIVE: This article extends the compartmental model previously developed by Scribner et al. in the context of college drinking to a mathematical model of the consequences of lowering the legal drinking age. METHOD: Using data available from 32 U.S. campuses, the analyses separate underage and legal age drinking groups into an eight-compartment model with different alcohol availability (wetness) for the underage and legal age groups. The model evaluates the likelihood that underage students will incorrectly perceive normative drinking levels to be higher than they actually are (i.e., misperception) and adjust their drinking accordingly by varying the interaction between underage students in social and heavy episodic drinking compartments. RESULTS: The results evaluate the total heavy episodic drinker population and its dependence on the difference in misperception, as well as its dependence on underage wetness, legal age wetness, and drinking age. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that an unrealistically extreme combination of high wetness and low enforcement would be needed for the policies related to lowering the drinking age to be effective.

A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies.

OBJECTIVE: The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. METHOD: A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. RESULTS: First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). CONCLUSIONS: A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses.