U.S. vehicle occupancy trends relevant to future automated vehicles and mobility services.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying current occupant travel patterns can inform decision making regarding the design, regulation, and occupant protection systems helpful for automated vehicle systems and mobility services. METHODS: Two travel data sets were analyzed to quantify travel patterns: the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), which provides data on household trips logged for a 24-h period, and the 2011-2015 National Automotive Sampling System-General Estimates System (NASS-GES), which contains data sampled from police-reported crashes. Analysis identified trends with driver age and gender, occupant age and gender, time of day, day of week, trip purpose, trip duration, vehicle type, as well as occupant role as solo driver, driver of others, single passenger, or multiple passengers. RESULTS: In NHTS, the median trip duration is 15 min; only 10% of trips last longer than 40 min. Trip duration does not vary with occupant role or vehicle type. Variations with trip time of day and day of week show a unimodal pattern for weekends, as well as weekday trips for those aged 55 years and older and non-solo occupants aged 18 to 29 years. Other occupant groups have a bimodal weekday travel pattern with peak trips corresponding to morning and evening rush hours.In GES, approximately half of occupants are solo drivers. Female drivers aged 55 and older travel alone 60% of the time, and drivers under age 18 and female drivers aged 30 to 54 drive alone on less than 45% of trips. Approximately 13% of occupants are single passengers, and 16% travel with a driver and at least 1 other passenger. About 16% of occupants are front seat passengers. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of vehicle occupancy provides insights on what ridership of future automated vehicles and expanded ride-hailing services may look like. Because half of occupants are solo drivers, only 16% are multiple passengers, and median trip length is just 15 min, proposed alternative seating arrangements intended to promote comfort and passenger interaction may not represent the typical future vehicle use case in the United States. Knowledge of current occupancy patterns can help automated vehicle designers and regulators develop safe seating scenarios that meet customer needs.

Accounting for selection bias due to death in estimating the effect of wealth shock on cognition for the Health and Retirement Study.

The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal study of U.S. adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive ability of subjects measured using a dataset provided composite score. However, our analysis was complicated by the lack of randomization, time-dependent confounding, and a substantial fraction of the sample and population will die during follow-up leading to some of our outcomes being censored. The common method to handle this type of problem is marginal structural models (MSM). Although MSM produces valid estimates, this may not be the most appropriate method to reflect a useful real-world situation because MSM upweights subjects who are more likely to die to obtain a hypothetical population that over time, resembles that would have been obtained in the absence of death. A more refined and practical framework, principal stratification (PS), would be to restrict analysis to the strata of the population that would survive regardless of negative wealth shock experience. In this work, we propose a new algorithm for the estimation of the treatment effect under PS by imputing the counterfactual survival status and outcomes. Simulation studies suggest that our algorithm works well in various scenarios. We found no evidence that a negative wealth shock experience would affect the cognitive score of HRS subjects.

Multitasking additional-to-driving: Prevalence, structure, and associated risk in SHRP2 naturalistic driving data.

OBJECTIVE: This paper 1) analyzes the extent to which drivers engage in multitasking additional-to-driving (MAD) under various conditions, 2) specifies odds ratios (ORs) of crashing associated with MAD, and 3) explores the structure of MAD. METHODS: Data from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study (SHRP2 NDS) was analyzed to quantify the prevalence of MAD in normal driving as well as in safety-critical events of various severity level and compute point estimates and confidence intervals for the corresponding odds ratios estimating the risk associated with MAD compared to no task engagement. Sensitivity analysis in which secondary tasks were re-defined by grouping similar tasks was performed to investigate the extent to which ORs are affected by the specific task definitions in SHRP2. A novel visual representation of multitasking was developed to show which secondary tasks co-occur frequently and which ones do not. RESULTS: MAD occurs in 11 % of control driving segments, 22 % of crashes and near-crashes (CNC), 26 % of Level 1-3 crashes and 39 % of rear-end striking crashes, and 9 %, 16 %, 17 % and 28 % respectively for the same event types if MAD is defined in terms of general task groups. The most common co-occurrences of secondary tasks vary substantially among event types; for example, "Passenger in adjacent seat - interaction" and "Other non-specific internal eye glance" tend to co-occur in CNC but tend not to co-occur in control driving segments. The odds ratios of MAD using SHRP2 task definitions compared to driving without any secondary task and the corresponding 95 % confidence intervals are 2.38 (2.17-2.61) for CNC, 3.72 (3.11-4.45) for Level 1-3 crashes and 8.48 (5.11-14.07) for rear-end striking crashes. The corresponding ORs using general task groups to define MAD are slightly lower at 2.00 (1.80-2.21) for CNC, 3.03 (2.48-3.69) for Level 1-3 crashes and 6.94 (4.04-11.94) for rear-end striking crashes. CONCLUSIONS: The number of secondary tasks that the drivers were engaged in differs substantially for different event types. A graphical representation was presented that allows mapping task prevalence and co-occurrence within an event type as well as a comparison between different event types. The ORs of MAD indicate an elevated risk for all safety-critical events, with the greatest increase in the risk of rear-end striking crashes. The results are similar independently of whether secondary tasks are defined according to SHRP2 or general task groups. The results confirm that the reduction of driving performance from MAD observed in simulator studies is manifested in real-world crashes as well.

Effects of child restraint misuse on dynamic performance.

Objective: Estimates of child restraint misuse rates in the United States range from 49% to 95%, but not all misuse modes have similar consequences in terms of restraint effectiveness. A series of laboratory sled tests was conducted to determine the effects of common misuses and combinations of misuses, including loose harness, loose installation, incorrect installation angle, incorrect belt path, loose/no tether, and incorrect harness clip usage.Methods: Three commercial convertible child restraint models were loaded with the Hybrid III 3-year-old anthropomorphic test device (ATD) and secured by either LATCH or seat belt on a modified FMVSS No. 213 bench. Tests were conducted in forward-facing (FF) and rear-facing (RF) modes. The response variables included ATD accelerations, excursions, and restraint kinematics. Belt/LATCH loads, tether loads, ATD kinematics, and restraint structural response data were also documented. A fractional factorial test design on 8 factors was used to define an initial series of 32 tests. The first series also included 4 tests of correct CRS, 2 forward facing and 2 rearward facing. The analysis of those data determined the selection of conditions for the remaining 20 tests to focus on factors and interactions of high interest and significance.Results: In the RF condition, misrouting the LATCH belt or seat belt through the incorrect belt path was the only misuse that significantly affected outcomes of interest and was associated with high levels of undesirable CRS rotation. In FF tests, loose installation and tether misuse had large adverse effects on 3 of 4 key response variables.Conclusion: The study provides strong evidence for prioritizing tight restraint installation and proper tether use for FF restraints. In particular, use of the tether helped offset the adverse effects of loose installation or loose harness. Because the results show that performance of a RF child restraint system (CRS) installation is less affected by user error, they also provide support for extended RF restraint use. In addition, packaging convertible child restraints with the LATCH belt routed through the RF belt path could help prevent the most consequential RF CRS misuse.

Factors Affecting Child Injury Risk in Motor-Vehicle Crashes.

Current recommendations for restraining child occupants are based on biomechanical testing and data from national and international field studies primarily conducted prior to 2011. We hypothesized that analysis to identify factors associated with pediatric injury in motor-vehicle crashes using a national database of more recent police-reported crashes in the United States involving children under age 13 where type of child restraint system (CRS) is recorded would support previous recommendations. Weighted data were extracted from the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (NASS-GES) for crash years 2010 to 2015. Injury outcomes were grouped as CO (possible and no injury) or KAB (killed, incapacitating injury, nonincapacitating injury). Restraint was characterized as optimal, suboptimal, or unrestrained based on current best practice recommendations. Analysis used survey methods to identify factors associated with injury. Factors with significant effect on pediatric injury risk include restraint type, child age, driver injury, driver alcohol use, seating position, and crash direction. Compared to children using optimal restraint, unrestrained children have 4.9 (13-year-old) to 5.6 (< 1-year-old) times higher odds of injury, while suboptimally restrained children have 1.1 (13-year-old) to 1.9 (< 1-year-old) times higher odds of injury. As indicated by the differences in odds ratios, effects of restraint type attenuate with age. Results support current best practice recommendations to use each stage of child restraint (rear-facing CRS, forward-facing harnessed CRS, belt-positioning booster seat, lap and shoulder belt) as long as possible before switching to the next step.

Comparing motor-vehicle crash risk of EU and US vehicles.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the hypotheses that passenger vehicles meeting European Union (EU) safety standards have similar crashworthiness to United States (US) -regulated vehicles in the US driving environment, and vice versa. METHODS: The first step involved identifying appropriate databases of US and EU crashes that include in-depth crash information, such as estimation of crash severity using Delta-V and injury outcome based on medical records. The next step was to harmonize variable definitions and sampling criteria so that the EU data could be combined and compared to the US data using the same or equivalent parameters. Logistic regression models of the risk of a Maximum injury according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale of 3 or greater, or fatality (MAIS3+F) in EU-regulated and US-regulated vehicles were constructed. The injury risk predictions of the EU model and the US model were each applied to both the US and EU standard crash populations. Frontal, near-side, and far-side crashes were analyzed together (termed "front/side crashes") and a separate model was developed for rollover crashes. RESULTS: For the front/side model applied to the US standard population, the mean estimated risk for the US-vehicle model is 0.035 (sd = 0.012), and the mean estimated risk for the EU-vehicle model is 0.023 (sd = 0.016). When applied to the EU front/side population, the US model predicted a 0.065 risk (sd = 0.027), and the EU model predicted a 0.052 risk (sd = 0.025). For the rollover model applied to the US standard population, the US model predicted a risk of 0.071 (sd = 0.024), and the EU model predicted 0.128 risk (sd = 0.057). When applied to the EU rollover standard population, the US model predicted a 0.067 risk (sd = 0.024), and the EU model predicted 0.103 risk (sd = 0.040). CONCLUSIONS: The results based on these methods indicate that EU vehicles most likely have a lower risk of MAIS3+F injury in front/side impacts, while US vehicles most likely have a lower risk of MAIS3+F injury in llroovers. These results should be interpreted with an understanding of the uncertainty of the estimates, the study limitations, and our recommendations for further study detailed in the report.

Development of a real-time prediction model of driver behavior at intersections using kinematic time series data.

As connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) enter the fleet, there will be a long period when these vehicles will have to interact with human drivers. One of the challenges for CAVs is that human drivers do not communicate their decisions well. Fortunately, the kinematic behavior of a human-driven vehicle may be a good predictor of driver intent within a short time frame. We analyzed the kinematic time series data (e.g., speed) for a set of drivers making left turns at intersections to predict whether the driver would stop before executing the turn. We used principal components analysis (PCA) to generate independent dimensions that explain the variation in vehicle speed before a turn. These dimensions remained relatively consistent throughout the maneuver, allowing us to compute independent scores on these dimensions for different time windows throughout the approach to the intersection. We then linked these PCA scores to whether a driver would stop before executing a left turn using the random intercept Bayesian additive regression trees. Five more road and observable vehicle characteristics were included to enhance prediction. Our model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.84 at 94m away from the center of an intersection and steadily increased to 0.90 by 46m away from the center of an intersection.

Does unbelted safety requirement affect protection for belted occupants?

OBJECTIVE: Federal regulations in the United States require vehicles to meet occupant performance requirements with unbelted test dummies. Removing the test requirements with unbelted occupants might encourage the deployment of seat belt interlocks and allow restraint optimization to focus on belted occupants. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of restraint systems optimized for belted-only occupants with those optimized for both belted and unbelted occupants using computer simulations and field crash data analyses. METHODS: In this study, 2 validated finite element (FE) vehicle/occupant models (a midsize sedan and a midsize SUV) were selected. Restraint design optimizations under standardized crash conditions (U.S.-NCAP and FMVSS 208) with and without unbelted requirements were conducted using Hybrid III (HIII) small female and midsize male anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) in both vehicles on both driver and right front passenger positions. A total of 10 to 12 design parameters were varied in each optimization using a combination of response surface method (RSM) and genetic algorithm. To evaluate the field performance of restraints optimized with and without unbelted requirements, 55 frontal crash conditions covering a greater variety of crash types than those in the standardized crashes were selected. A total of 1,760 FE simulations were conducted for the field performance evaluation. Frontal crashes in the NASS-CDS database from 2002 to 2012 were used to develop injury risk curves and to provide the baseline performance of current restraint system and estimate the injury risk change by removing the unbelted requirement. RESULTS: Unbelted requirements do not affect the optimal seat belt and airbag design parameters in 3 out of 4 vehicle/occupant position conditions, except for the SUV passenger side. Overall, compared to the optimal designs with unbelted requirements, optimal designs without unbelted requirements generated the same or lower total injury risks for belted occupants depending on statistical methods used for the analysis, but they could also increase the total injury risks for unbelted occupants. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated potential for reducing injury risks to belted occupants if the unbelted requirements are eliminated. Further investigations are necessary to confirm these findings.

The Impact of Michigan's Partial Repeal of the Universal Motorcycle Helmet Law on Helmet Use, Fatalities, and Head Injuries.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of the partial repeal of Michigan's universal motorcycle helmet law on helmet use, fatalities, and head injuries. METHODS: We compared helmet use rates and motorcycle crash fatality risk for the 12 months before and after the April 13, 2012, repeal with a statewide police-reported crash data set. We linked police-reported crashes to injured riders in a statewide trauma registry. We compared head injury before and after the repeal. Regression examined the effect of helmet use on fatality and head injury risk. RESULTS: Helmet use decreased in crash (93.2% vs 70.8%; P < .001) and trauma data (91.1% vs 66.2%; P < .001) after the repeal. Although fatalities did not change overall (3.3% vs 3.2%; P = .87), head injuries (43.4% vs 49.6%; P < .05) and neurosurgical intervention increased (3.7% vs 6.5%; P < .05). Male gender (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.65), helmet nonuse (AOR = 1.84), alcohol intoxication (AOR = 11.31), intersection crashes (AOR = 1.62), and crashes at higher speed limits (AOR = 1.04) increased fatality risk. Helmet nonuse (AOR = 2.31) and alcohol intoxication (AOR = 2.81) increased odds of head injury. CONCLUSIONS: Michigan's helmet law repeal resulted in a 24% to 27% helmet use decline among riders in crashes and a 14% increase in head injury.

Real-world effects of using a phone while driving on lateral and longitudinal control of vehicles.

INTRODUCTION: Technologies able to augment human communication, such as smartphones, are increasingly present during all daily activities. Their use while driving, in particular, is of great potential concern, because of the high risk that distraction poses during this activity. Current countermeasures to distraction from phone use are considerably different across countries and not always widely accepted/adopted by the drivers. METHODS: This study utilized naturalistic driving data collected from 108 drivers in the Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems (IVBSS) program in 2009 and 2010 to assess the extent to which using a phone changes lateral or longitudinal control of a vehicle. The IVBSS study included drivers from three age groups: 20­30 (younger), 40­50 (middle-aged), and 60­70 (older). RESULTS: Results from this study show that younger drivers are more likely to use a phone while driving than older and middle-aged drivers. Furthermore, younger drivers exhibited smaller safety margins while using a phone. Nevertheless, younger drivers did not experience more severe lateral/longitudinal threats than older and middle-aged drivers, probably because of faster reaction times. While manipulating the phone (i.e., dialing, texting), drivers exhibited larger lateral safety margins and experienced less severe lateral threats than while conversing on the phone. Finally, longitudinal threats were more critical soon after phone interaction, suggesting that drivers terminate phone interactions when driving becomes more demanding. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that drivers are aware of the potential negative effect of phone use on their safety. This awareness guides their decision to engage/disengage in phone use and to increase safety margins (self-regulation). This compensatory behavior may be a natural countermeasure to distraction that is hard to measure in controlled studies. Practical Applications: Intelligent systems able to amplify this natural compensatory behavior may become a widely accepted/adopted countermeasure to the potential distraction from phone operation while driving.

Modeling the injury prevention impact of mandatory alcohol ignition interlock installation in all new US vehicles.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated the injury prevention impact and cost savings associated with alcohol interlock installation in all new US vehicles. METHODS: We identified fatal and nonfatal injuries associated with drinking driver vehicle crashes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and National Automotive Sampling System's General Estimates System data sets (2006-2010). We derived the estimated impact of universal interlock installation using an estimate of the proportion of alcohol-related crashes that were preventable in vehicles < 1 year-old. We repeated this analysis for each subsequent year, assuming a 15-year implementation. We applied existing crash-induced injury cost metrics to approximate economic savings, and we used a sensitivity analysis to examine results with varying device effectiveness. RESULTS: Over 15 years, 85% of crash fatalities (> 59 000) and 84% to 88% of nonfatal injuries (> 1.25 million) attributed to drinking drivers would be prevented, saving an estimated $342 billion in injury-related costs, with the greatest injury and cost benefit realized among recently legal drinking drivers. Cost savings outweighed installation costs after 3 years, with the policy remaining cost effective provided device effectiveness remained above approximately 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol interlock installation in all new vehicles is likely a cost-effective primary prevention policy that will substantially reduce alcohol-involved crash fatalities and injuries, especially among young vulnerable drivers.

Factors affecting tether use and correct use in child restraint installations.

INTRODUCTION: Field studies show that top tethers go unused in half of forward-facing child restraint installations. METHOD: In this study, parent volunteers were asked to use the Lower Anchors and Tethers for Children (LATCH) to install child restraints in several vehicles to identify tether anchor characteristics that are associated with tether use. Thirty-seven volunteers were assigned to four groups. Each group tested two forward-facing child restraints in four of 16 vehicle models. Logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of tether use and correct use. RESULTS: Subjects used the tether in 89% of the 294 forward-facing child restraint installations and attached the tether correctly in 57% of the installations. Tethers were more likely to be used when the anchor was located on the rear deck as typically found in sedans compared with the seatback, floor, or roof. Tethers were less likely to be attached correctly when there was potentially confusing hardware present. No vehicle tether hardware characteristics or vehicle manual directions were associated specifically with correct tether routing and head restraint position. CONCLUSION: This study provides laboratory evidence that specific vehicle features are associated with tether use and correct use. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Modifications to vehicles that make tether anchors easier to find and identify likely will result in increases in tether use and correct use.

Comparing the effects of age, BMI and gender on severe injury (AIS 3+) in motor-vehicle crashes.

BACKGROUND: The effects of age, body mass index (BMI) and gender on motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries are not well understood and current prevention efforts do not effectively address variability in occupant characteristics. OBJECTIVES: (1) Characterize the effects of age, BMI and gender on serious-to-fatal MVC injury. (2) Identify the crash modes and body regions where the effects of occupant characteristics on the numbers of occupants with injury is largest, and thereby aid in prioritizing the need for human surrogates that represent different types of occupant characteristics and adaptive restraint systems that consider these characteristics. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression was used to model the effects of occupant characteristics (age, BMI, gender), vehicle and crash characteristics on serious-to-fatal injuries (AIS 3+) by body region and crash mode using the 2000-2010 National Automotive Sampling System (NASS-CDS) dataset. Logistic regression models were applied to weighted crash data to estimate the change in the number of annual injured occupants with AIS 3+ injury that would occur if occupant characteristics were limited to their 5th percentiles (age≤17 years old, BMI≤19kg/m(2)) or male gender. RESULTS: Limiting age was associated with a decrease in the total number of occupants with head [8396, 95% CI 6871-9070] and thorax injuries [17,961, 95% CI 15,960-18,859] across all crash modes, decreased occupants with spine [3843, 95% CI 3065-4242] and upper extremity [3578, 95% CI 1402-4439] injuries in frontal and rollover crashes and decreased abdominal [1368, 95% CI 1062-1417] and lower extremity [4584, 95% CI 4012-4995] injuries in frontal impacts. The age effect was modulated by gender with older females more likely to have thorax and upper extremity injuries than older males. Limiting BMI was associated with 2069 [95% CI 1107-2775] fewer thorax injuries in nearside crashes, and 5304 [95% CI 4279-5688] fewer lower extremity injuries in frontal crashes. Setting gender to male resulted in fewer occupants with head injuries in farside crashes [1999, 95% CI 844-2685] and fewer thorax [5618, 95% CI 4212-6272], upper [3804, 95% CI 1781-4803] and lower extremity [2791, 95% CI 2216-3256] injuries in frontal crashes. Results indicate that age provides the greater relative contribution to injury when compared to gender and BMI, especially for thorax and head injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Restraint systems that account for the differential injury risks associated with age, BMI and gender could have a meaningful effect on injury in motor-vehicle crashes. Computational models of humans that represent older, high BMI, and female occupants are needed for use in simulations of particular types of crashes to develop these restraint systems.

Effects of child restraint system features on installation errors.

This study examined how child restraint system (CRS) features contribute to CRS installation errors. Sixteen convertible CRS, selected to include a wide range of features, were used in volunteer testing with 32 subjects. Subjects were recruited based on their education level (high or low) and experience with installing CRS (none or experienced). Each subject was asked to perform four child restraint installations in the right-rear passenger seat of a 2006 Pontiac G6 sedan using a crash dummy as a child surrogate. Each subject installed two CRS forward-facing (FF), one with LATCH and one with the vehicle seatbelt, and two CRS rear-facing (RF), one with LATCH and one with the seatbelt. After each installation, the experimenter evaluated 42 factors for each installation, such as choice of belt routing path, tightness of installation, and harness snugness. Analyses used linear mixed models to identify CRS installation outcomes associated with CRS features. LATCH connector type, LATCH strap adjustor type, and the presence of belt lockoffs were associated with the tightness of the CRS installation. The type of harness shoulder height adjuster was associated with the rate of achieving a snug harness. Correct tether use was associated with the tether storage method. In general, subject assessments of the ease-of-use of CRS features were not highly correlated with the quality of their installation, suggesting a need for feedback with incorrect installations. The data from this study provide quantitative assessments of some CRS features that were associated with reductions in CRS installation errors. These results provide child restraint designers with design guidelines for developing easier-to-use products. Research on providing effective feedback during the child restraint installation process is recommended.

Modeling the impact of rescinding Michigan's primary and secondary seat belt laws on death and injury from passenger vehicle crashes.

BACKGROUND: Seat belts are the most effective method of decreasing fatal and nonfatal motor vehicle crash injury. Advocacy groups have recently been successful in enacting repeals of mandatory motorcycle helmet laws in several states. In some states, this has prompted renewed efforts aimed at repealing mandatory seat belt laws. PURPOSE: To evaluate and quantify the potential impact of rescinding seat belt laws on annual crash-related fatalities, nonfatal injuries, and associated economic costs, using Michigan as a model, to inform the national debate. METHODS: Proportional injury rates were calculated utilizing police-reported statewide passenger vehicle crash data from 1999 and 2002, where belt use rates approximate estimates associated with repeal of primary and secondary seat belt laws. Proportional rates were applied to the most recent year of crash data (2011) to estimate changes in statewide fatalities and nonfatal injuries. National cost estimates were applied to injury data to calculate associated economic costs. RESULTS: Full repeal of the seat belt law is estimated to result in an additional 163 fatalities, 13,722 nonfatal injuries, and an associated societal cost of $1.6 billion annually. Repeal of the primary seat belt law only is estimated to result in an additional 95 fatalities, 9156 nonfatal injuries, and an associated societal cost of $1.0 billion annually. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that repealing the either the primary or full seat belt law would have a substantial and negative impact on public health, increasing motor vehicle crash related fatality, nonfatal injury, and associated economic costs.

Vehicle LATCH system features associated with correct child restraint installations.

OBJECTIVE: Lower anchors and tethers for children (LATCH) was intended to standardize the attachment between child restraints and vehicle seats. However, LATCH implementations vary, resulting in differences in ease of attachment of child restraint connectors. Identifying vehicle characteristics associated with correct child restraint installations can provide guidance for designing vehicle LATCH systems that increase correct child restraint installations. METHODS: The LATCH system and other relevant vehicle characteristics were documented in 98 top-selling 2010-2011 vehicles. These features, together with proposed LATCH usability recommendations from the International Organization for Standardization and Society of Automotive Engineers, were used to select 12 vehicles for volunteer testing with a range of LATCH system characteristics. Thirty-six volunteers were assigned to 4 groups; each group tested 3 vehicles, 4 child restraints (infant, rear-facing convertible, forward-facing convertible, and combination seat), and 2 installation methods (lower anchors and seat belt) in a split-plot experimental design. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of tight installation and correct lower anchor use. RESULTS: Vehicle survey results indicated that most vehicle manufacturers provide the minimum number of LATCH hardware locations required by regulation. Among 21 vehicles with a third row, 4 had no tether anchors and 11 had no lower anchors in the third row. Study volunteers correctly used the lower anchors in 60 percent of LATCH installations and used the top tether in 48 percent of forward-facing installations. When the tether was used, use was correct in 46 percent of trials (22% of all forward-facing installations). Only 13 percent of all trials had completely correct child restraint installation (correct use of lower anchors or seat belt, correct tether anchor use, tight seat installation, and correct installation angle). Tight installation was 3.3 times as likely with correct lower anchor use compared to trials with incorrect use. Three lower anchor characteristics were associated with rates of correct lower anchor use above 50 percent: clearance angle around the lower anchors greater than 54°, attachment forces less than 178 N, and anchor depth within the seat bight of less than 2 cm. Vehicles meeting all 3 criteria were 19 times as likely to have lower anchors used correctly compared to vehicles meeting none of the criteria. No vehicle features predicted either use of tethers or correct use of tethers. CONCLUSIONS: Vehicle LATCH systems that improve lower anchor accessibility could increase the rate of correct lower anchor use, but more research is needed to understand factors associated with tether use and correct use.

Effects of BMI on the risk and frequency of AIS 3+ injuries in motor-vehicle crashes.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the effects of BMI on the risk of serious-to-fatal injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3 or AIS 3+) to different body regions for adults in frontal, nearside, farside, and rollover crashes. DESIGN AND METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to a probability sample of adult occupants involved in crashes generated by combining the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS-CDS) with a pseudoweighted version of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. Logistic regression models were applied to weighted data to estimate the change in the number of occupants with AIS 3+ injuries if no occupants were obese. RESULTS: Increasing BMI increased risk of lower-extremity injury in frontal crashes, decreased risk of lower-extremity injury in nearside impacts, increased risk of upper-extremity injury in frontal and nearside crashes, and increased risk of spine injury in frontal crashes. Several of these findings were affected by interactions with gender and vehicle type. If no occupants in frontal crashes were obese, 7% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ upper-extremity injuries, 8% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ lower-extremity injuries, and 28% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ spine injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study have implications on the design and evaluation of vehicle safety systems.

Identification and validation of a logistic regression model for predicting serious injuries associated with motor vehicle crashes.

A multivariate logistic regression model, based upon National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) data for calendar years 1999-2008, was developed to predict the probability that a crash-involved vehicle will contain one or more occupants with serious or incapacitating injuries. These vehicles were defined as containing at least one occupant coded with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of greater than or equal to 15, in planar, non-rollover crash events involving Model Year 2000 and newer cars, light trucks, and vans. The target injury outcome measure was developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-led National Expert Panel on Field Triage in their recent revision of the Field Triage Decision Scheme (American College of Surgeons, 2006). The parameters to be used for crash injury prediction were subsequently specified by the National Expert Panel. Model input parameters included: crash direction (front, left, right, and rear), change in velocity (delta-V), multiple vs. single impacts, belt use, presence of at least one older occupant (≥ 55 years old), presence of at least one female in the vehicle, and vehicle type (car, pickup truck, van, and sport utility). The model was developed using predictor variables that may be readily available, post-crash, from OnStar-like telematics systems. Model sensitivity and specificity were 40% and 98%, respectively, using a probability cutpoint of 0.20. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve for the final model was 0.84. Delta-V (mph), seat belt use and crash direction were the most important predictors of serious injury. Due to the complexity of factors associated with rollover-related injuries, a separate screening algorithm is needed to model injuries associated with this crash mode.

Effects of osteoporosis on AIS 3+ injury risk in motor-vehicle crashes.

Older occupants in motor-vehicle crashes are more likely to experience injury than younger occupants. One possible reason for this is that increasing age is associated with increased prevalence of osteoporosis, which decreases bone strength. Crash-injury data were used with Bayes' Theorem to estimate the conditional probability of AIS 3+ skeletal injury given that an occupant is osteoporotic for the injury to the head, spine, thorax, lower extremities, and upper extremities. This requires the conditional probabilities of osteoporosis given AIS 3+ injury for each of the body regions, which were determined from analysis of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. It also requires information on probability of osteoporosis in the crash-involved population and the probabilities of AIS 3+ skeletal injury to different body regions in crashes. The latter probabilities were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database. The former was obtained by modeling the probability of osteoporosis in the US populations using data from the 2006 National Health Examination Nutrition Survey and applying this model to the estimate of the crash-involved population in NASS-CDS. To attempt to account for the effects of age on injury outcome that are independent of osteoporosis, only data from occupants who were 60 years of age or older were used in all analyses. Results indicate that the only body region that experiences a statistically significant change in fracture injury risk with osteoporosis is the spine, for which osteoporosis increases the risk of AIS 3+ fracture by 3.28 times, or from 0.41% to 1.34% (p<0.0001). This finding suggests that the increase in AIS 3+ injury risk with age for non-spine injuries is likely influenced by factors other than osteoporosis.

Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip complex for knee-impact loading.

Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip (KTH) relate peak force applied to the anterior aspect of the flexed knee, the primary source of KTH injury in frontal motor-vehicle crashes, to the probability of skeletal KTH injury. Previous KTH injury risk curves have been developed from analyses of peak knee-impact force data from studies where knees of whole cadavers were impacted. However, these risk curves either neglect the effects of occupant gender, stature, and mass on KTH fracture force, or account for them using scaling factors derived from dimensional analysis without empirical support. A large amount of experimental data on the knee-impact forces associated with KTH fracture are now available, making it possible to estimate the effects of subject characteristics on skeletal KTH injury risk by statistically analyzing empirical data. Eleven studies were identified in the biomechanical literature in which the flexed knees of whole cadavers were impacted. From these, peak knee-impact force data and the associated subject characteristics were reanalyzed using survival analysis with a lognormal distribution. Results of this analysis indicate that the relationship between peak knee-impact force and the probability of KTH fracture is a function of age, total body mass, and whether the surface that loads the knee is rigid. Comparisons between injury risk curves for the midsize adult male and small adult female crash test dummies defined in previous studies and new risk curves for these sizes of occupants developed in this study suggest that previous injury risk curves generally overestimate the likelihood of KTH fracture at a given peak knee-impact force. Future work should focus on defining the relationships between impact force at the human knee and peak axial compressive forces measured by load cells in the crash test dummy KTH complex so that these new risk curves can be used with ATDs.