Nursing Home Characteristics Associated with Antipsychotic Prescribing After Implementation of the National Antipsychotic Reduction Initiative (ARI).

OBJECTIVES: To describe nursing home (NH) characteristics associated with antipsychotic use and test whether associations changed after implementation of the National Partnership to Improve Dementia Care's antipsychotic reduction initiative (ARI). METHODS: Longitudinal quasi-experimental design using data from multiple sources and piecewise linear mixed models were used for statistical analyses. RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in monthly antipsychotic use across the study period (pre-ARI b = -0.0003, p <.001; post-ARI b = -0.0012, p <.001), which held after adjusting for NH characteristics. Registered nurse hours (b = -0.0026, p <.001), licensed practical nurse hours (b = -0.0019, p <.001), facility chain membership (b = -0.0013, p <.01), and health inspection ratings (b = -0.0003, p >.01) were associated with decreased antipsychotic use. Post-ARI changes in associations between NH characteristics and antipsychotic use were small and not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Decreases in antipsychotic use were associated with most NH characteristics, and associations persisted post-ARI. Further research is warranted to examine the interactions between ARI policy and NH characteristics on antipsychotic prescribing, as well as other NH factors, such as facility prescribing cultures and clinical specialty of staff. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Decreases in monthly antipsychotic use were observed following the ARI. The decreases in monthly antipsychotic use were associated with most NH characteristics, and these associations persisted during the post-ARI period.

Association of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates and Facility Characteristics on COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in US Nursing Homes.

OBJECTIVES: Nursing home residents have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite recognition as a priority group for receipt of the COVID-19 vaccine, vaccine uptake and COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in nursing home facilities were variable across nursing homes. This study has 2 objectives: (1) to describe nursing facility characteristics associated with higher vs lower vaccination rates and (2) to estimate facility characteristics associated with COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, stratified by vaccination rate. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Facility-level data from 12,811 US nursing home facilities. METHODS: Using the CMS's Nursing Home COVID-19 Public File, we analyzed nursing home COVID-19 vaccination rates and outcomes from June 13, 2021, to September 19, 2021. We performed multivariable logistic regressions and identified facility characteristics associated with increased vaccination uptake and COVID-19 outcomes. RESULTS: Nursing homes with average vaccination rates ≤80% experienced higher total average COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths compared to facilities with >80% average vaccination rates during the Delta surge. Moreover, facility factors, such as higher average age of residents, proportion of non-white residents, nurse staffing hours, and occupancy rates, were variably associated with increased risk of COVID-19 outcomes. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Facilities with higher resident vaccination rates experienced lower average COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in US nursing homes. Access to vaccines may play a role in mitigating harm associated with infectious diseases. Additionally, facility factors associated with increased adverse outcomes were variably associated with increased odds of COVID-19 outcomes, often, irrespective of vaccination level. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve and as the possibility of other infectious disease variants emerge, this research provides insight into facility factors, including vaccine uptake, that may mitigate adverse outcomes.

Prevalence and Risk of Behavioral Symptoms among Patients with Insomnia and Alzheimer's Disease: A Retrospective Database Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the prevalence and patterns of behavioral symptoms, including agitation/aggression (AA), psychotic symptoms (PS), anxiety/mood disorders (MD), and delirium among patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and their association with diagnosed insomnia. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using the MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid Database 2016-2020. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥50 with newly diagnosed AD (N = 56,904) were identified during 2017-2019 and categorized into insomnia and non-insomnia groups based on billing codes recorded in medical and pharmacy claims. METHODS: The index date was defined as the earliest date of diagnosis/medication of insomnia. The new diagnosis of AD had to be established within 12 months before (baseline) or 3 months after the index date. Point prevalence of behavioral symptoms was estimated during baseline and the 12-month follow-up period. Propensity score matching was performed to match patients with and without insomnia. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to assess the risk of diagnosis of behavioral symptoms among insomnia and non-insomnia groups. RESULTS: The study cohort included 7808 patients with newly diagnosed AD (mean age = 79.4, SD = 9.6 years). The point prevalence of behavioral symptoms was as follows: among those with insomnia (n = 3904), in the baseline, AA = 9.0%, PS = 12.5%, and MD = 57.8%, and during the follow-up, AA = 13.9%, PS = 16.3%, and MD = 72.1%; among those without insomnia (n = 3904), in the baseline, AA = 6.2%, PS = 9.2%, and MD = 41.4%; and during the follow-up, AA = 7.4%, PS = 10.4%, and MD = 49.2%. The likelihood of being diagnosed with any behavioral symptoms in the follow-up period was significantly higher among patients with insomnia than those without [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 2.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.4-3.1]. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: In patients with AD, prevalence of behavioral symptoms and likelihood of being diagnosed with behavioral symptoms were significantly higher among patients with diagnosed insomnia. Further investigation is needed to understand the relationship between insomnia and behavioral symptoms in patients with AD.

Unintended impacts of a national antipsychotic reduction initiative among nursing facility residents with and without Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: In July 2012, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid services launched an antipsychotic reduction initiative (ARI) to improve care for nursing facility residents with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). We examined the impact of this policy on antipsychotic and psychotropic medication (PM) utilization and diagnosis patterns in long-stay nursing facility residents with ADRD and other conditions in which antipsychotics are indicated. METHODS: Using an 80% sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with Part D, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of nursing facility residents with ADRD, bipolar disorder, psychosis, Parkinson's disease, and residents exempt from the policy due to diagnoses of schizophrenia, Tourette syndrome, and/or Huntington's disease. We used interrupted time-series analyses to compare changes in diagnoses, antipsychotic use, and PM utilization before (January 1, 2011-June 30, 2012) and after (July 1, 2012-September 30, 2015) ARI implementation. RESULTS: We identified 874,487 long-stay nursing facility residents with a diagnosis of ADRD (n = 358,518), exempt (n = 92,859), bipolar (n = 128,298), psychosis (n = 93,402), and Parkinson's disease (n = 80,211). In all cohorts, antipsychotic use declined prior to the ARI; upon policy implementation, antipsychotic use reductions were sustained throughout the study period, including statistically significant ARI-associated accelerated declines in all cohorts. PM changes varied by cohort, with ARI-associated increases in non-benzodiazepine sedatives and/or muscle relaxants noted in ADRD, psychosis, and Parkinson's cohorts. Although anticonvulsant use increased throughout the study period in all groups, with the exception of the bipolar cohort, these increases were not associated with ARI implementation. Findings are minimally explained by increased post-ARI membership in the psychosis and Parkinson's cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Our study documents antipsychotic use significantly declined in non-ADRD clinical and exempt cohorts, where such reductions may not be clinically warranted. Furthermore, ARI-associated compensatory increases in PMs do not offset these reductions. Changes in PM utilization and diagnostic make-up of residents using PMs require further investigation to assess the potential for adverse clinical and economic outcomes.

Social determinants predict whether Medicare beneficiaries are offered a Comprehensive Medication Review.

BACKGROUND: Medication reviews through Medicare's Medication Therapy Management (MTM) program may improve patient outcomes and lower health system costs, but these effects could be limited by a program design that does not address social determinants of health. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the effects of social determinants of health on the odds of an eligible Medicare beneficiary not being offered Comprehensive Medication Review (CMR). METHODS: Using the full 100% sample of the 2016 Part D Medication Therapy Management Data File linked to Medicare Master Beneficiary Summary File, a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis was conducted to determine which social and demographic variables are most strongly associated with being eligible for a CMR but not being offered one. Descriptive statistics were generated using SAS studio 3.8. RESULTS: Variables associated with the highest odds of not receiving a CMR when eligible are residence in Louisiana OR 1.79 (95%CI 1.70-1.88), receiving the LIS OR 1.76 (1.73-1.79), dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid OR 1.25 (1.12-1.41), and Black race OR 1.19 (1.16-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Social determinants of health, most strongly geography and low-income status, predict being eligible for but not being offered CMR. Race continues to be a factor in disparate access to MTM services.

Examining transitions of care among nursing home residents with and without antipsychotic medication use.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the association between antipsychotic (AP) medication use and care transitions in the nursing home (NH) population. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries between 2011 and 2015. Propensity score adjusted negative binomial regression was performed and conditional probabilities of having a first transition from the NH to specific locations were calculated. RESULTS: Among 150,284 eligible beneficiaries, the majority were female (67%), white (84%), and >75 years old (63%). Controlling for resident characteristics, the odds of having any transition was 5% lower among those with AP use [IRR (95% confidence interval (CI))=0.95(0.94-0.96)] relative to those with no AP use. Residents with AP use had higher proportions of transitions to hospital (22.7% vs. 19.5%, p < 0.01), emergency department (19.6% vs. 10.7%, p < 0.01), and different NH (1.5% vs. 0.4%, p < 0.01), and lower proportions of transition to non-healthcare locations compared to those without AP use. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate that residents with AP use had higher probabilities of transitions to more costly care settings such as the emergency department and hospital compared to those without AP use. Future longitudinal studies will help to inform clinical interventions aimed at improving the quality of care for this population.

Racial Disparities in Nursing Home Resident and Staff COVID-19 Vaccination Rates.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether staff and resident COVID-19 vaccination rates varied by racial heterogeneity of nursing homes, defined as proportion of residents who are White. METHODS: Cross-sectional study using data from the Medicare COVID-19 Nursing Home Database and LTCFocus.org to examine facility-level resident and staff vaccination status. General linear regression models assessed analyses of variance and tests for trend on proportion of residents and staff fully vaccinated as of June 13, 2021 by proportion of White residents in each facility. RESULTS: Over 12,000 (n=12,278) nursing homes provided resident measures and 8,838 reported staff measures. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) resident vaccination rate of nursing homes in the lowest and highest quantiles of White residents was significantly different at 72.74% (20.59%) and 85.65% (16.70%), respectively. Staff vaccination rates of nursing homes in the lowest and highest quantiles of White residents were not significantly different at 58.34% (25.09%) and 56.06% (19.32%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A higher proportion of White residents per facility was associated with higher resident COVID-19 vaccination rates reflecting continued disparities in quality of care during the pandemic.

Patterns of opioid use in commercially insured patients with cancer.

OBJECTIVES: In an era of heightened opioid prescribing scrutiny, ensuring safe and adequate pain management is challenging. Understanding opioid use in patients with cancer can facilitate effective pain management regimens while minimizing safety concerns. This study characterized patterns of and factors associated with opioid use following a new cancer diagnosis. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Our study included patients with a new cancer diagnosis aged 18 to 64 years in IQVIA PharMetrics Plus 2007-2013 who were continuously enrolled 12 months before receiving their cancer diagnosis and 24 months after. Study outcomes included opioid prevalence and measures of potentially high-risk opioid use (total days supplied, number of prescriptions, and morphine equivalent daily dose [MEDD]). Descriptive analyses and logistic regression were implemented. RESULTS: Of 191,616 eligible individuals, 93,739 (48.9%) received opioid prescriptions; of these, 56,025 (59.8%) were new opioid users. Opioid users received 4.6 prescriptions on average, covering 65 total days with a mean MEDD of 31.8 mg. Only 2387 (2.5%) patients received higher than recommended (≥ 90 mg) MEDD. Predictors of opioid use post cancer included prior opioid use, select comorbidities, use of nonopioid pain treatment adjuvants (muscle relaxants, sedative/hypnotics, anticonvulsants, antidepressants, and steroids), cancer site, and metastatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than half of patients received opioids in the 2 years following cancer onset. Among users, we found a relatively small proportion of potentially problematic opioid use. Further research is warranted to assess the adequacy of cancer pain treatment and determinants of high-risk opioid use.

Query mandates in prescription drug monitoring programs reduce opioid use among commercially insured patients with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) have been shown to reduce opioid use in the general and noncancer populations. However, evidence of PDMP impacts on patients with cancer remains limited. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine the impact of PDMP mandates on individual-level opioid use among patients with cancer. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed cancer aged 18-65 years in the IQVIA PharMetrics Plus database (IQVIA Inc; nationally representative data of the U.S. commercially insured population in 49 states) between 2013 and 2015. The primary exposure was PDMP rigor (ranked from highest to lowest rigor): provider query + registration, query only, registration only, and unexposed. The study outcomes included (1) prevalent use among all individuals; and among opioid users (2) total days supplied, (3) daily morphine equivalent dose (MED), and (4) cumulative MED. RESULTS: Of the eligible cohort (n=28,353), 37.5% (10,656) received opioids after a cancer diagnosis. The individuals exposed to these mandates were as follows: query + registration: 3899 (13.8%); query only: 3459 (12.2%); registration only: 2764 (9.7%); and no mandates: 18,231 (64.3%). The PDMP mandates had no effect on prevalent opioid use. Compared with unexposed patients, those subject to query mandates-alone or with registration mandates-experienced 12 fewer opioid days supplied and a lower mean cumulative MED (-662 mg and -702 mg, respectively), P < 0.01. Registration-only mandates were associated with 21 days more (P < 0.01) total days supplied and lower daily MED (1.1 mg; P < 0.05) but had no statistically significant effect on cumulative MED (-46 mg, P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Query mandates are a stronger PDMP tool than registration mandates in reducing opioid days supplied and cumulative MED. Initiatives should target PDMP mandates toward intended patient groups to reduce high-risk opioid use without compromising adequate pain treatment.

Staffing and Protective Equipment Access Mitigated COVID-19 Penetration and Spread in US Nursing Homes During the Third Surge.

OBJECTIVES: During the last quarter of 2020-despite improved distribution of personal protective equipment (PPE) and knowledge of COVID-19 management-nursing homes experienced the greatest increases in cases and deaths since the pandemic's beginning. We sought to update COVID-19 estimates of cases, hospitalization, and mortality and to evaluate the association of potentially modifiable facility-level infection control factors on odds and magnitude of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in nursing homes during the third surge of the pandemic. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Facility-level data from 13,156 US nursing home facilities. METHODS: Two series of multivariable logistic regression and generalized linear models to examine the association of infection control factors (personal protective equipment and staffing) on incidence and magnitude, respectively, of confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in nursing home residents reported in the last quarter of 2020. RESULTS: Nursing homes experienced steep increases in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths during the final quarter of 2020. Four-fifths (80.51%; n = 10,592) of facilities reported at least 1 COVID-19 case, 49.44% (n = 6504) reported at least 1 hospitalization, and 49.76% (n = 6546) reported at least 1 death during this third surge. N95 mask shortages were associated with increased odds of at least 1 COVID-19 case [odds ratio (OR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.40] and hospitalization (1.26, 95% CI 1.13-1.40), as well as larger numbers of hospitalizations (1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20). Nursing aide shortages were associated with lower odds of at least 1 COVID-19 death (1.23, 95% CI 1.12-1.34) and higher hospitalizations (1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.17). The number of nursing hours per resident per day was largely insignificant across all outcomes. Of note, smaller (<50-bed) and midsized (50- to 150-bed) facilities had lower odds yet higher magnitude of all COVID outcomes. Bed occupancy rates >75% increased odds of experiencing a COVID-19 case (1.48, 95% CI 1.35-1.62) or death (1.25, 95% CI 1.17-1.34). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Adequate staffing and PPE-along with reduced occupancy and smaller facilities-mitigate incidence and magnitude of COVID-19 cases and sequelae. Addressing shortcomings in these factors is critical to the prevention of infections and adverse health consequences of a next surge among vulnerable nursing home residents.

Interhospital and interindividual variability in secondary prevention: a comparison of outpatients with a history of chronic coronary syndrome versus outpatients with a history of acute coronary syndrome (the iASPIRE Study).

BACKGROUND: Studying variability in the care provided to secondary prevention coronary heart disease (CHD) outpatients can identify interventions to improve their outcomes. METHODS: We studied outpatients who had an index CHD event in the preceding 6-24 months. Eligible CHD events included acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and coronary revascularisation for stable chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). Site training was provided by a core team and data were collected using standardised methods. RESULTS: Between 2017 and 2019, we enrolled 721 outpatients at nine Irish study sites; 81% were men and mean age was 63.9 (SD ±8.9) years. The study examination occurred a median of 1.16 years after the index CHD event, which was ACS in 399 participants (55%) and stable-CCS in 322. On examination, 42.5% had blood pressure (BP) >140/90 mm Hg, 63.7% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) >1.8 mmol/L and 44.1% of known diabetics had an HbA1c >7%. There was marked variability in risk factor control, both by study site and, in particular, by index presentation type. For example, 82% of outpatients with prior-ACS had attended cardiac rehabilitation versus 59% outpatients with prior-CCS (p<0.001) and there were also large differences in control of traditional risk factors like LDL-C (p=0.002) and systolic BP (p<0.001) among outpatients with prior-ACS versus prior-CCS as the index presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite international secondary prevention guidelines broadly recommending the same risk factor targets for all adults with CHD, we found marked differences in outpatient risk factor control and management on the basis of hospital location and index CHD presentation type (acute vs chronic). These findings highlight the need to reduce hospital-level and patient-level variability in preventive care to improve outcomes; a lesson that should inform CHD prevention programmes in Ireland and around the world.

Age, psychiatry admission status and linear mental capacity for treatment decisions.

The relationship between age and mental capacity among psychiatry inpatients is not fully understood. We aimed to assess mental capacity for treatment decisions in voluntary and involuntary psychiatry inpatients in Ireland and, in this analysis of our data-set, to elucidate the linear relationship, if any, between linear (as opposed to categorical) mental capacity and age. We used the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) to assess mental capacity for treatment decisions in 215 psychiatry inpatients (176 voluntary and 39 involuntary) in four psychiatry admission units in Ireland. Mean age was 46.2 years and majorities were male (58.1%), never married (74.0%), unemployed (64.2%) and of Irish ethnicity (87.0%). The most common primary diagnoses were schizophrenia and related disorders (42.8%) followed by affective disorders (36.7%). On multi-variable linear regression analysis, linear mental capacity was significantly associated with voluntary admission status, being employed, having a primary diagnosis other than schizophrenia or a related disorder, and younger age. Together, these factors accounted for 44.4% of the variance in mental capacity between participants. Overall, while increased age is associated with diminished mental capacity, other factors appear more significant, including involuntary admission status which is likely an indicator of symptom severity. There is a need for further research to (a) elucidate the relationships between the significant factors identified in this study and the cognitive status of patients (which impacts on assessments of mental capacity); (b) identify and elucidate other factors of likely relevance to mental capacity (e.g. medical illness, medication use); and (c) translate these findings into targeted interventions to support decision-making in clinical practice among psychiatry inpatients, especially those with involuntary status.

Convergence or Divergence? Comparing Mental Capacity Assessments Based on Legal and Clinical Criteria in Medical and Surgical Inpatients.

Despite the high prevalence of mental incapacity for treatment decisions in hospitals (27.7%), there is little information about the relationship, if any, between mental capacity assessments based on clinical and legal criteria. We performed a cross-sectional study of mental incapacity for treatment decisions in 300 hospital inpatients in two hospitals in Ireland, using the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) and the legal definition of mental incapacity in Ireland's incoming Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015. We found that patients who lacked mental capacity according to the legal criteria scored significantly lower on all four subscales of the MacCAT-T (Understanding, Appreciation, Reasoning, and Communication) compared to those who had mental capacity according to the legal criteria. In light of the similarity between Ireland's legal definition of mental incapacity and legislative definitions in other jurisdictions (e.g. England and Wales), we conclude that legal assessments of mental incapacity in these countries accord closely with clinical assessments (as reflected in the MacCAT-T). Ireland's new mental capacity legislation should be implemented promptly in order to further operationalize Ireland's new legal definition of mental incapacity and provide patients with the supports they need to optimize their mental capacity for treatment decisions in hospitals.

Interday Reliability and Usefulness of a Reactive Strength Index Derived From 2 Maximal Rebound Jump Tests.

PURPOSE: To examine the interday reliability and usefulness of a reactive strength index (RSI) derived from a maximal 5-rebound jump test (5max RJT) and a maximal 10-rebound jump test (10/5 RJT). METHODS: Twenty male field-sport athletes (24.5 [3.0] y, 1.78 [0.1] m, 84.9 [5.2] kg) and 15 female participants (21.1 [0.9] y, 1.65 [0.73] m, 62.0 [5.1] kg) performed 2 maximal repetitions of the 5max RJT and the 10/5 RJT on 2 testing days after a specific warm-up. A 1-wk period separated testing days, and these sessions were preceded by a familiarization session. RSI was calculated by dividing jump height (in meters) by contact time (in seconds). The 5max RJT and the 10/5 RJT trial with the highest RSI on each testing day were used for reliability and usefulness analysis. RESULTS: Both tests were deemed reliable for determining RSI for male, female, and pooled male and female cohorts, as the intraclass correlation coefficients were ≥.80 and the coefficient of variation was ≤10%. Only the 5max RJT was rated as "good" at detecting the smallest worthwhile change in performance for female athletes (smallest worthwhile change: 0.10 > typical error: 0.07). The 5max RJT for men and the 10/5 RJT for men and women were rated "good" in detecting a moderate change in performance only. CONCLUSIONS: Both tests are reliable for the determination of RSI, but the usefulness of the tests in detecting the smallest worthwhile change is questionable.

Autologous platelet gel: fad or savoir? Do we really know?

Autologous platelet-gel (APG) is the process of harvesting ones own cells (platelets), concentrating them most often through centrifugation, exposing them to an agonist which induces activation which releases intrinsic substances, and applying them to a target area to accelerate wound healing. APG is attractive because it concentrates a large number of biologically active substances, which are primarily proteins that participate in complex series of mechanisms involved in inflammation and wound healing. It has been used in numerous applications including sports medicine, dermatology, and surgery. However, there are few prospective randomized trials that have compared it in a rigorous manner to other techniques or to placebo. The following report is a review of APG, which includes a description of its perceived benefit, identification of the various modalities where it has been used, and criticisms concerning its use.

Toward a practical method for setting screening-level, ecological risk-based water temperature criteria and monitoring compliance.

We integrated basic concepts from fisheries science and toxicological risk assessment to form a potential method for setting screening-level, risk-based, site-specific water quality objectives for temperature. In summary, the proposed approach: (a) uses temperature impacts upon specific growth as a measure of chronic (cumulative) temperature effects; (b) explicitly incorporates the consequences of both magnitude and cumulative duration of exposures; (c) adjusts the result for local watershed conditions, reducing the likelihood that naturally warm systems are identified as thermally polluted while helping to ensure that naturally cool systems are closely monitored for ecologically harmful changes in thermal regime; and (d) expresses the net result both graphically and as a risk quotient, RQ, closely analogous to that used in toxicological risk assessments. The latter yields a site-specific, risk-based water quality objective and may serve as a straightforward decision rule for environmental managers. The method was applied to historical data from a small British Columbia stream subject to increasing urban development pressures. We also illustrate how the technique might be used to explore potential climatic change impacts, using coupled general circulation model predictions in conjunction with empirical downscaling. Overall, the method and results are presented as an introduction and illustration of concept, intended as a step toward the development of a logistically feasible risk-based approach to establishing screening-level, site-specific water temperature objectives, and monitoring compliance, in the context of large-scale, many-site, environmental monitoring networks. With further work, the technique offers potential to fill the gap between the temperature threshold-based targets typically specified in regulatory guidelines, which may be hydroecologically unrealistic, and detailed biophysical modelling, which typically is logistically infeasible in a day-to-day environmental monitoring and management context.

Detection and visualization of storm hydrograph changes under urbanization: an impulse response approach.

Urbanization often alters catchment storm responses, with a broad range of potentially significant environmental and engineering consequences. At a practical, site-specific management level, efficient and effective assessment and control of such downstream impacts requires a technical capability to rapidly identify development-induced storm hydrograph changes. The method should also speak specifically to alteration of internal watershed dynamics, require few resources to implement, and provide results that are intuitively accessible to all watershed stakeholders. In this short paper, we propose a potential method which might satisfy these criteria. Our emphasis lies upon the integration of existing concepts to provide tools for pragmatic, relatively low-cost environmental monitoring and management. The procedure involves calibration of rainfall-runoff time-series models in each of several successive time windows, which sample varying degrees of watershed urbanization. As implemented here, only precipitation and stream discharge or stage data are required. The readily generated unit impulse response functions of these time-series models might then provide a mathematically formal, yet visually based and intuitive, representation of changes in watershed storm response. Nominally, the empirical response functions capture such changes as soon as they occur, and the assessments of storm hydrograph alteration are independent of variability in meteorological forcing. We provide a preliminary example of how the technique may be applied using a low-order linear ARX model. The technique may offer a fresh perspective on such watershed management issues, and potentially also several advantages over existing approaches. Substantial further testing is required before attempting to apply the concept as a practical environmental management technique; some possible directions for additional work are suggested.

Aquifer responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Southwest British Columbia.

We used climatological composite analysis to investigate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals in long-term shallow ground water level observations from four wells in the lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. Significance of differences between warm-phase, cold-phase, and neutral climate states was assessed with a Monte Carlo bootstrap technique. We also considered time series of local precipitation and streamflow for comparison. Composite annual hyetographs suggest that ENSO precipitation impacts are largely limited to winter and spring, with higher and lower rainfall occurring, respectively, under cold-phase and warm-phase episodes. This is consistent with prior work in the region and is found to be directly reflected in both streamflow and ground water level data. The mean magnitude of ENSO terrestrial hydrologic anomalies can be up to approximately 50% of the average seasonal cycle amplitude. ENSO does not appear to systematically affect annual hydrometeorological cycle timing in this study area. However, relative to the surface hydrologic systems considered, aquifers are observed to retain a stronger memory of seasonal ENSO-related precipitation anomalies, with changes potentially extending through the following summer, presumably reflecting storage effects. Most responses appear to be somewhat nonlinear.

The association between aspirin and blood loss in hip fracture patients.

This is a cohort study involving 98 patients who presented to a regional orthopaedic unit with a hip fracture. Blood loss was assessed by pre and post operative haemoglobin concentrations, and transfusion requirements were used as outcome measures. The influence of pre-operative aspirin use and fracture type was analysed with respect to these outcome measures. Forty two percent of patients were regular aspirin users, and were comparable to the non aspirin group, apart from having a significantly greater prevalence of atherosclerotic vascular disease. There was no significant difference between the aspirin and non aspirin groups in terms of preoperative haemoglobin concentrations, perioperative changes in haemoglobin levels and transfusion requirements. Fifty one percent of patients had extracapsular hip fractures, and these patients were comparable in terms of demographic characteristics, including aspirin use, to the group with intracapsular hip fractures. The extracapsular hip fracture group were found to have significantly increased peri-operative blood loss as measured by changes in the haemoglobin level, and in transfusion requirements when analysed against the intracapsular hip fracture group. We found that it is the fracture site, rather than aspirin use pre-operatively, that is predictive of blood loss and transfusion requirements in patients presenting with hip fractures.

Usefulness of real-time three-dimensional echocardiography for reliable measurement of cardiac output in patients with ischemic or idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy.

The determination of stroke volume (SV) is a potentially important application of real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE). SV measurements by thermodilution were compared with values obtained using transthoracic RT3DE in a sequential cohort of patients who underwent assessment for potential cardiac transplantation. There was a strong correlation between echocardiographically derived SV and catheterization data (r = 0.95, n = 14). On average, RT3DE appeared to underestimate SV by 7.5 ml (SD = 5.8) or 17% (SD = 12%). A role for RT3DE in the measurement of SV in severe heart failure is suggested.