Current and future environmental suitability for bats hosting potential zoonotic pathogens in rural Kenya.

Synanthropic bats live in close proximity to humans and domestic animals, creating opportunities for potential pathogen spillover. We explored environmental correlates of occurrence for a widely distributed synanthropic African bat, Mops pumilus-a species associated with potential zoonotic viruses-and estimated current and future environmental suitability in the Taita Hills region and surrounding plains in Taita-Taveta County in southeast Kenya. To project future environmental suitability, we used four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 general circulation models that capture temperature and precipitation changes for East Africa. The models were parameterized with empirical capture data of M. pumilus collected from 2016 to 2023, combined with satellite-based vegetation, topographic, and climatic data to identify responses to environmental factors. The strongest drivers for current environmental suitability for M. pumilus were short distance to rivers, higher precipitation during the driest months, sparse vegetation-often related to urban areas-and low yearly temperature variation. To predict current and future areas suitable for M. pumilus, we created ensemble niche models, which yielded excellent predictive accuracies. Current suitable environments were located southward from the central and southern Taita Hills and surrounding plains, overlapping with urban centers with the highest human population densities in the area. Future projections for 2050 indicated a moderate increase in suitability range in the southern portion of the region and surrounding plains in human-dominated areas; however, projections for 2090 showed a slight contraction of environmental suitability for M. pumilus, potentially due to the negative impact of increased temperatures. These results show how environmental changes are likely to impact the human exposure risk of bat-borne pathogens and could help public health officials develop strategies to prevent these risks in Taita-Taveta County, Kenya, and other parts of Africa.

Frequent and intense human-bat interactions occur in buildings of rural Kenya.

Simultaneous use of domestic spaces by humans and wildlife is little understood, despite global ubiquity, and can create an interface for human exposure to wildlife pathogens. Bats are a pervasive synanthropic taxon and are associated with several pathogens that can spill over and cause disease in humans. Urbanization has destroyed much natural bat habitat and, in response, many species increasingly use buildings as roosts. The purpose of this study was to characterize human interactions with bats in shared buildings to assess potential for human exposure to and spillover of bat-borne pathogens. We surveyed 102 people living and working in buildings used as bat roosts in Taita-Taveta county, Kenya between 2021 and 2023. We characterized and quantified the duration, intensity, and frequency of human-bat interactions occurring in this common domestic setting. Survey respondents reported living with bats in buildings year-round, with cohabitation occurring consistently for at least 10 years in 38% of cases. Human contact with bats occurred primarily through direct and indirect routes, including exposure to excrement (90% of respondents), and direct touching of bats (39% of respondents). Indirect contacts most often occurred daily, and direct contacts most often occurred yearly. Domestic animal consumption of bats was also reported (16% of respondents). We demonstrate that shared building use by bats and humans in rural Kenya leads to prolonged, frequent, and sometimes intense interactions between bats and humans, consistent with interfaces that can facilitate exposure to bat pathogens and subsequent spillover. Identifying and understanding the settings and practices that may lead to zoonotic pathogen spillover is of great global importance for developing countermeasures, and this study establishes bat roosts in buildings as such a setting.

Effects of food supplementation and helminth removal on space use and spatial overlap in wild rodent populations.

Animal space use and spatial overlap can have important consequences for population-level processes such as social interactions and pathogen transmission. Identifying how environmental variability and inter-individual variation affect spatial patterns and in turn influence interactions in animal populations is a priority for the study of animal behaviour and disease ecology. Environmental food availability and macroparasite infection are common drivers of variation, but there are few experimental studies investigating how they affect spatial patterns of wildlife. Bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) are a tractable study system to investigate spatial patterns of wildlife and are amenable to experimental manipulations. We conducted a replicated, factorial field experiment in which we provided supplementary food and removed helminths in vole populations in natural forest habitat and monitored vole space use and spatial overlap using capture-mark-recapture methods. Using network analysis, we quantified vole space use and spatial overlap. We compared the effects of food supplementation and helminth removal and investigated the impacts of season, sex and reproductive status on space use and spatial overlap. We found that food supplementation decreased vole space use while helminth removal increased space use. Space use also varied by sex, reproductive status and season. Spatial overlap was similar between treatments despite up to threefold differences in population size. By quantifying the spatial effects of food availability and macroparasite infection on wildlife populations, we demonstrate the potential for space use and population density to trade-off and maintain consistent spatial overlap in wildlife populations. This has important implications for spatial processes in wildlife including pathogen transmission.

Kenyan Free-Tailed Bats Demonstrate Seasonal Birth Pulse Asynchrony with Implications for Virus Maintenance.

Ecological information on wildlife reservoirs is fundamental for research targeting prevention of zoonotic infectious disease, yet basic information is lacking for many species in global hotspots of disease emergence. We provide the first estimates of synchronicity, magnitude, and timing of seasonal birthing in Mops condylurus, a putative ebolavirus host, and a co-roosting species, Mops pumilus (formerly Chaerephon pumilus). We show that population-level synchronicity of M. condylurus birthing is wide (~ 8.5 weeks) and even wider in M. pumilus (> 11 weeks). This is predicted to promote the likelihood of filovirus persistence under conditions of bi-annual birthing (two births per year). Ecological features underlying the magnitude of the birth pulse-relative female abundance (higher than expected for M. condylurus and lower for M. pumilus, based on literature) and reproductive rate (lower than expected)-will have countering effects on birthing magnitude. Species-specific models are needed to interpret how identified birth pulse attributes may interact with other features of molossid ebolavirus ecology to influence infection dynamics. As a common feature of wildlife species, and a key driver of infection dynamics, detailed information on seasonal birthing will be fundamental for future research on these species and will be informative for bat-borne zoonoses generally.

Novel Ozark Orthohantavirus in Hispid Cotton Rats (Sigmodon hispidus), Arkansas, USA.

We report a novel orthohantavirus, putatively named Ozark orthohantavirus, in hispid cotton rats captured within the Ozark Plateau in Arkansas, USA. This virus phylogenetically clusters with other orthohantaviruses that cause severe human disease. Continued orthohantavirus surveillance and virus sequencing are needed to address the potential public health threat of this virus.

Roost selection by synanthropic bats in rural Kenya: implications for human-wildlife conflict and zoonotic pathogen spillover.

Many wildlife species are synanthropic and use structures built by humans, creating a high-risk interface for human-wildlife conflict and zoonotic pathogen spillover. However, studies that investigate features of urbanizing areas that attract or repel wildlife are currently lacking. We surveyed 85 buildings used by bats and 172 neighbouring buildings unused by bats (controls) in southeastern Kenya during 2021 and 2022 and evaluated the role of microclimate and structural attributes in building selection. We identified eight bat species using buildings, with over 25% of building roosts used concurrently by multiple species. Bats selected taller cement-walled buildings with higher water vapour pressure and lower presence of permanent human occupants. However, roost selection criteria differed across the most common bat species: molossids selected structures like those identified by our main dataset whereas Cardioderma cor selected buildings with lower presence of permanent human occupants. Our results show that roost selection of synanthropic bat species is based on specific buildings attributes. Further, selection criteria that facilitate bat use of buildings are not homogeneous across species. These results provide information on the general mechanisms of bat-human contact in rural settings, as well as specific information on roost selection for synanthropic bats in urbanizing Africa.

A framework for understanding and predicting orthohantavirus functional traits.

Orthohantaviruses present a global public health threat; there are 58 distinct viruses currently recognized and case fatality of pathogenic orthohantaviruses ranges from <0.1% to 50%. An Old World versus New World dichotomy is frequently applied to distinguish human diseases caused by orthohantaviruses. However, this geographic grouping masks the importance of phylogeny and virus-host ecology in shaping orthohantavirus traits, especially since related arvicoline rodents and their orthohantaviruses are found in both regions. We argue that orthohantaviruses can be separated into three phylogenetically based rodent host groups with differences in key functional traits, including human disease, transmission route, and virus-host fidelity. This framework can help understand and predict traits of under-studied and newly discovered orthohantaviruses and guide public health and biosafety policy.

Effects of habitat management on rodent diversity, abundance, and virus infection dynamics.

As anthropogenic factors continue to degrade natural areas, habitat management is needed to restore and maintain biodiversity. However, the impacts of different habitat management regimes on ecosystems have largely focused on vegetation analyses, with limited evaluation of downstream effects on wildlife. We compared the effects of grassland management regimes (prescribed burning, cutting/haying, or no active management) on rodent communities and the viruses they hosted. Rodents were trapped in 13 existing grassland sites in Northwest Arkansas, USA during 2020 and 2021. Rodent blood samples were screened for antibodies against three common rodent-borne virus groups: orthohantaviruses, arenaviruses, and orthopoxviruses. We captured 616 rodents across 5953 trap nights. Burned and unmanaged sites had similarly high abundance and diversity, but burned sites had a higher proportion of grassland species than unmanaged sites; cut sites had the highest proportion of grassland species but the lowest rodent abundance and diversity. A total of 38 rodents were seropositive for one of the three virus groups (34 orthohantavirus, three arenavirus, and one orthopoxvirus). Thirty-six seropositive individuals were found in burned sites, and two orthohantavirus-seropositive individuals were found in cut sites. Cotton rats and prairie voles, two grassland species, accounted for 97% of the rodents seropositive for orthohantavirus. Our study indicates that prescribed burns lead to a diverse and abundant community of grassland rodent species compared with other management regimes; as keystone taxa, these results also have important implications for many other species in food webs. Higher prevalence of antibodies against rodent-borne viruses in burned prairies shows an unexpected consequence likely resulting from robust host population densities supported by the increased habitat quality of these sites. Ultimately, these results provide empirical evidence that can inform grassland restoration and ongoing management strategies.

No Substantial Histopathologic Changes in Mops condylurus Bats Naturally Infected with Bombali Virus, Kenya.

We found similar mild perivascular inflammation in lungs of Bombali virus-positive and -negative Mops condylurus bats in Kenya, indicating the virus is well-tolerated. Our findings indicate M. condylurus bats may be a reservoir host for Bombali virus. Increased surveillance of these bats will be important to reduce potential virus spread.

Virus isolation data improve host predictions for New World rodent orthohantaviruses.

Identifying reservoir host species is crucial for understanding the ecology of multi-host pathogens and predicting risks of pathogen spillover from wildlife to people. Predictive models are increasingly used for identifying ecological traits and prioritizing surveillance of likely zoonotic reservoirs, but these often employ different types of evidence for establishing host associations. Comparisons between models with different infection evidence are necessary to guide inferences about the trait profiles of likely hosts and identify which hosts and geographical regions are likely sources of spillover. Here, we use New World rodent-orthohantavirus associations to explore differences in the performance and predictions of models trained on two types of evidence for infection and onward transmission: RT-PCR and live virus isolation data, representing active infections versus host competence, respectively. Orthohantaviruses are primarily carried by muroid rodents and cause the diseases haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) in humans. We show that although boosted regression tree (BRT) models trained on RT-PCR and live virus isolation data both performed well and capture generally similar trait profiles, rodent phylogeny influenced previously collected RT-PCR data, and BRTs using virus isolation data displayed a narrower list of predicted reservoirs than those using RT-PCR data. BRT models trained on RT-PCR data identified 138 undiscovered hosts and virus isolation models identified 92 undiscovered hosts, with 27 undiscovered hosts identified by both models. Distributions of predicted hosts were concentrated in several different regions for each model, with large discrepancies between evidence types. As a form of validation, virus isolation models independently predicted several orthohantavirus-rodent host associations that had been previously identified through empirical research using RT-PCR. Our model predictions provide a priority list of species and locations for future orthohantavirus sampling. More broadly, these results demonstrate the value of multiple data types for predicting zoonotic pathogen hosts. These methods can be applied across a range of systems to improve our understanding of pathogen maintenance and increase efficiency of pathogen surveillance.

Seroevidence of Zoonotic Viruses in Rodents and Humans in Kibera Informal Settlement, Nairobi, Kenya.

Rodents are known reservoir hosts for a number of pathogens that can spillover into humans and cause disease. These threats are likely to be elevated in informal urban settlements (i.e., slums), where rodent and human densities are often high, rodents live in close proximity to humans, and human knowledge of disease risks and access to health care is often limited. While recent research attention has focused on zoonotic risks posed by urban rodents in major cities around the world, informal urban settlements have received far less attention. Here we report on a study in which samples were collected from 195 commensal rodents and 124 febrile human patients in the Kibera informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya (one of the largest informal urban settlements in the world). Using immunofluorescence assays, samples were screened for antibodies against common rodent-borne zoonotic virus groups, namely orthopoxviruses, arenaviruses, and hantaviruses. We detected antibodies against orthopoxviruses in rodents (4.1% positive) and antibodies in humans against orthopoxviruses, arenaviruses, and hantaviruses (4.8%, 3.2%, and 8.1% positive, respectively). No rodents had antibodies against arenaviruses or hantaviruses. These results provide strong evidence for the circulation of zoonotic viruses in rodents and humans in Kibera urban settlement, but discordance between viruses detected in host groups indicates that other species or taxa may also serve as reservoirs for these zoonotic viruses or that humans testing positive could have been exposed outside of the Kibera settlement. More broadly, this study highlights the threat posed by zoonotic viruses in informal urban settlements and the need to mitigate human exposure risks.

The future of zoonotic risk prediction.

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Demography, education, and research trends in the interdisciplinary field of disease ecology.

Micro- and macroparasites are a leading cause of mortality for humans, animals, and plants, and there is great need to understand their origins, transmission dynamics, and impacts. Disease ecology formed as an interdisciplinary field in the 1970s to fill this need and has recently rapidly grown in size and influence. Because interdisciplinary fields integrate diverse scientific expertise and training experiences, understanding their composition and research priorities is often difficult. Here, for the first time, we quantify the composition and educational experiences of a subset of disease ecology practitioners and identify topical trends in published research. We combined a large survey of self-declared disease ecologists with a literature synthesis involving machine-learning topic detection of over 18,500 disease ecology research articles. The number of graduate degrees earned by disease ecology practitioners has grown dramatically since the early 2000s. Similar to other science fields, we show that practitioners in disease ecology have diversified in the last decade in terms of gender identity and institution, with weaker diversification in race and ethnicity. Topic detection analysis revealed how the frequency of publications on certain topics has declined (e.g., HIV, serology), increased (e.g., the dilution effect, infectious disease in bats), remained relatively common (e.g., malaria ecology, influenza, vaccine research and development), or have consistently remained relatively infrequent (e.g., theoretical models, field experiments). Other topics, such as climate change, superspreading, emerging infectious diseases, and network analyses, have recently come to prominence. This study helps identify the major themes of disease ecology and demonstrates how publication frequency corresponds to emergent health and environmental threats. More broadly, our approach provides a framework to examine the composition and publication trends of other major research fields that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries.

Range Expansion of Bombali Virus in Mops condylurus Bats, Kenya, 2019.

Previously identified only in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and southeastern Kenya, Bombali virus-infected Mops condylurus bats were recently found ¼750 km away in western Kenya. This finding supports the role of M. condylurus bats as hosts and the potential for Bombali virus circulation across the bats' range in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ecology of Neglected Rodent-Borne American Orthohantaviruses.

The number of documented American orthohantaviruses has increased significantly over recent decades, but most fundamental research has remained focused on just two of them: Andes virus (ANDV) and Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of American orthohantaviruses are known to cause disease in humans, and most of these pathogenic strains were not described prior to human cases, indicating the importance of understanding all members of the virus clade. In this review, we summarize information on the ecology of under-studied rodent-borne American orthohantaviruses to form general conclusions and highlight important gaps in knowledge. Information regarding the presence and genetic diversity of many orthohantaviruses throughout the distributional range of their hosts is minimal and would significantly benefit from virus isolations to indicate a reservoir role. Additionally, few studies have investigated the mechanisms underlying transmission routes and factors affecting the environmental persistence of orthohantaviruses, limiting our understanding of factors driving prevalence fluctuations. As landscapes continue to change, host ranges and human exposure to orthohantaviruses likely will as well. Research on the ecology of neglected orthohantaviruses is necessary for understanding both current and future threats to human health.

Orthohantavirus Isolated in Reservoir Host Cells Displays Minimal Genetic Changes and Retains Wild-Type Infection Properties.

: Orthohantaviruses are globally emerging zoonotic pathogens. While the reservoir host role of several rodent species is well-established, detailed research on the mechanisms of host-othohantavirus interactions has been constrained by the lack of an experimental system that is able to effectively replicate natural infections in controlled settings. Here we report the isolation, and genetic and phenotypic characterization of a novel Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in cells derived from its reservoir host, the bank vole. The isolation process resulted in cell culture infection that evaded antiviral responses, persisted cell passaging, and had minor viral genome alterations. Critically, experimental infections of bank voles with the new isolate resembled natural infections in terms of viral load and host cell distribution. When compared to an attenuated Vero E6 cell-adapted PUUV Kazan strain, the novel isolate demonstrated delayed virus-specific humoral responses. A lack of virus-specific antibodies was also observed during experimental infections with wild-type PUUV, suggesting that delayed seroconversion could be a general phenomenon during orthohantavirus infection in reservoir hosts. Our results demonstrate that orthohantavirus isolation on cells derived from a vole reservoir host retains wild-type infection properties and should be considered the method of choice for experimental infection models to replicate natural processes.

Ecoimmunology at spatial scales.

IN FOCUS: Becker, D. J., Albery, G. F., Kessler, M. K., Lunn, T. J., Falvo, C. A., Czirják, G. Á., Martin, L. B., & Plowright, R. K. (2020). Macroimmunology: The drivers and consequences of spatial patterns in wildlife immune defence. Journal of Animal Ecology, 89, 972-995. Ecoimmunology seeks to identify and explain natural variation in immune function. Most research so far has focused on differences among individuals within populations, which are often driven by trade-offs in resource allocation between energetically costly immunity and competing processes such as reproduction. In their review article, Becker et al. (2020) have proposed a framework to explicitly address habitat- and population-level differences in wildlife immune phenotypes. Termed macroimmunology, this concept integrates principles from ecoimmunology and macroecology. Becker et al. (2020) have highlighted three non-mutually exclusive habitat features that are likely to vary at spatial scales and influence immune function: (a) parasite pressure, (b) abiotic and biotic factors and (c) anthropogenic changes. However, a large and robust body of literature suitable for synthesis to detect macroimmunology patterns and effect sizes is not yet available. Through their systematic review and critical assessment, Becker et al. (2020) identified common problems in existing research that hinders spatial inferences, such as a need for spatial replication in study design and statistical analyses that account for spatial dependence. Overall, macroimmunology has the potential to identify and even predict spatial patterns in immune phenotypes that form the mechanistic underpinnings of important wildlife disease processes, and this review represents an important step to realizing these goals.

First Report of Coronaviruses in Northern European Bats.

Coronaviruses (CoVs) represent a global public health threat, exemplified by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks. Using fecal samples collected from five bat species between 2014 and 2016 in Finland and RT-PCR, RT-qPCR, and NGS, we identified CoVs in 10 of 79 (13%) samples, including two novel bat species-CoV relationships. Phylogenetic analysis revealed Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus species clustered among previously identified bat and human viruses. These results expand the known northern distribution and host species range of bat-borne CoVs.