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BackgroundRelatively few COVID-19 cases and deaths have been reported through much of sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan, although the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear due to weak surveillance systems and few population-representative serosurveys. MethodsWe conducted a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We quantified IgG antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain and estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian regression model accounting for test performance. ResultsWe recruited 2,214 participants from August 10 to September 11, 2020 and 22.3% had anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titers above levels in pre-pandemic samples. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.5% (32.1 - 46.8) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. For each RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 case, 104 (87-126) infections were unreported. Background antibody reactivity was higher in pre-pandemic samples from Juba compared to Boston, where the serological test was validated. The estimated proportion of the population infected ranged from 30.1% to 60.6% depending on assumptions about test performance and prevalence of clinically severe infections. ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 has spread extensively within Juba. Validation of serological tests in sub-Saharan African populations is critical to improve our ability to use serosurveillance to understand and mitigate transmission.
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BACKGROUNDCharacterizing the humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and developing accurate serologic assays are needed for diagnostic purposes and estimating population-level seroprevalence. METHODSWe measured the kinetics of early antibody responses to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2 in a cohort of 259 symptomatic North American patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 (up to 75 days after symptom onset) compared to antibody levels in 1548 individuals whose blood samples were obtained prior to the pandemic. RESULTSBetween 14-28 days from onset of symptoms, IgG, IgA, or IgM antibody responses to RBD were all accurate in identifying recently infected individuals, with 100% specificity and a sensitivity of 97%, 91%, and 81% respectively. Although the estimated median time to becoming seropositive was similar across isotypes, IgA and IgM antibodies against RBD were short-lived with most individuals estimated to become seronegative again by 51 and 47 days after symptom onset, respectively. IgG antibodies against RBD lasted longer and persisted through 75 days post-symptoms. IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 RBD were highly correlated with neutralizing antibodies targeting the S protein. No cross-reactivity of the SARS-CoV-2 RBD-targeted antibodies was observed with several known circulating coronaviruses, HKU1, OC 229 E, OC43, and NL63. CONCLUSIONSAmong symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases, RBD-targeted antibodies can be indicative of previous and recent infection. IgG antibodies are correlated with neutralizing antibodies and are possibly a correlate of protective immunity.
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A novel human coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in China in December, 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period, which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. Here, we use data from public reports of 101 confirmed cases in 38 provinces, regions, and countries outside of Wuhan (Hubei province, China) with identifiable exposure windows and known dates of symptom onset to estimate the incubation period of 2019-nCoV. We estimate the median incubation period of 2019-nCoV to be 5.2 days (95% CI: 4.4, 6.0), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 10.5 days (95% CI: 7.3, 15.3) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 64 out of every 10,000 cases will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. Whether this risk is acceptable depends on the underlying risk of infection and consequences of missed cases. The estimates presented here can be used to inform policy in multiple contexts based on these judgments.
