Prediction of pneumonia 30-day readmissions: a single-center attempt to increase model performance.

BACKGROUND: Existing models developed to predict 30 days readmissions for pneumonia lack discriminative ability. We attempted to increase model performance with the addition of variables found to be of benefit in other studies. METHODS: From 133,368 admissions to a tertiary-care hospital from January 2009 to March 2012, the study cohort consisted of 956 index admissions for pneumonia, using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services definition. We collected variables previously reported to be associated with 30-day all-cause readmission, including vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory values, demographics, socioeconomic indicators, and indicators of hospital utilization. Separate logistic regression models were developed to identify the predictors of all-cause hospital readmission 30 days after discharge from the index pneumonia admission for pneumonia-related readmissions, and for pneumonia-unrelated readmissions. RESULTS: Of the 965 index admissions for pneumonia, 148 (15.5%) subjects were readmitted within 30 days. The variables in the multivariate-model that were significantly associated with 30-day all-cause readmission were male sex (odds ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.03-2.45), 3 or more previous admissions (odds ratio 1.84, 95% CI 1.22-2.78), chronic lung disease (odds ratio 1.63, 95% CI 1.07-2.48), cancer (odds ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.24-3.84), median income < $43,000 (odds ratio 1.82, 95% CI 1.18-2.81), history of anxiety or depression (odds ratio 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.52), and hematocrit < 30% (odds ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.22). The model performance, as measured by the C statistic, was 0.71 (0.66-0.75), with minimal optimism according to bootstrap re-sampling (optimism corrected C statistic 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of socioeconomic status and healthcare utilization variables significantly improved model performance, compared to the model using only the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services variables.

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube placement in left versus right middle cerebral artery stroke: effects of laterality.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged dysphagia after middle cerebral artery (MCA) territory strokes may require percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) tube feeding. OBJECTIVE: We examined the predictors of PEG placement among patients with MCA stroke. It was hypothesized that stroke laterality was a predictor. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of existing data from Hartford Hospital Stroke Database was done. A total of 157 patients with acute ischemic MCA stroke were included. Patients were divided into the "PEG" group (n = 24) and "no PEG" group (n = 133). Existing demographic, clinical and swallowing data were compared between the 2 groups. RESULTS: Demographic data were similar between the groups. The "PEG" group had a higher admission National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, higher proportion of patients who had thrombolytic administration, in- hospital aspiration pneumonia and inability to be assessed on first swallow evaluation. Multivariate analysis revealed that all, except thrombolytic administration may predict PEG placement. CONCLUSION: Admission NIHSS score, in-hospital aspiration pneumonia and inability to undergo first swallow evaluation may predict PEG placement in patients with acute MCA stroke. Stroke laterality was not associated. This knowledge facilitates early identification of patients that may require PEG tube placement for early nutrition provision and discharge to rehabilitation.

Dysphagia as a predictor of outcome and transition to palliative care among middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke patients.

BACKGROUND: Middle Cerebral Artery (MCA) territory strokes can be disabling and may leave patients unable to swallow safely. Decisions regarding artificial nutrition and goals of care often arise in patients with severe strokes leading to dysphagia. This study determined some predictors of early transition to palliative level of care among patients with acute ischemic MCA stroke with dysphagia. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical data of patients presenting to Hartford Hospital with an acute ischemic stroke between January 2005-December 2010 were gathered utilizing the Stroke Center at Hartford Hospital Database. The 236 patients included were divided into "early transition" and "not transitioned" to palliative care cohorts. Primary outcome was transition to palliative care. Factors that were significantly associated with an early transition to palliative level of care in univariate analysis were then entered into a multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify potential independent predictors of early transition to palliative level of care. The significance level was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS: 79 patients (34%) were transitioned to palliative level of care after failing the first swallow evaluation within a median of 3 days. Factors predictive of an early transition to palliative level of care after multivariate logistic regression analysis included advancing age (p < 0.001; OR: 1.10; 95% CI :1.056-1.155) , left MCA infarct (p = 0.039; OR: 0.417; 95% CI:0.182-0.956), a high NIHSS score on admission (p = 0.017; OR: 3.038; 95% CI: 1.22-7.555), administration of intra-arterial tPA (p < 0.001; OR: 7.106; 955 CI 2.541-19.873) and the inability to be assessed on the 1(st) swallow evaluation (p < 0.001; OR 0.053; 95% CI 0.022-0.131). CONCLUSIONS: The severity of dysphagia influences early transition to palliative level of care in acute stroke patients. Independent predictors of an early transition to palliative level of care among patients with an acute MCA territory stroke and dysphagia included advancing age, a left MCA infarct, a high NIHSS score on admission, administration of intra-arterial tPA and the inability to be assessed on the 1(st) swallow evaluation. This information may guide discussions with families of patients with MCA territory strokes regarding artificial nutrition and goals of care.