Development and Validation of Procedure-Specific Risk Score for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Complication: A NSQIP Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs; unplanned reintubation, postoperative pneumonia, and failure to liberate from mechanical ventilation within 48 hours), contribute significantly to increased rates of morbidity and mortality. Procedure type is an important factor that contributes risk in generalized PPC prediction models. The objective of this study was to develop and validate procedure-specific risk scores for the 6 procedures with the highest rates of PPCs. STUDY DESIGN: American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use File data (2005 to 2015) for patients undergoing pancreatectomy, hepatectomy, esophagectomy, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, open aortoiliac repair, and lung resection were used for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop pulmonary complications risk scores (PCRS) for each procedure. Youden indices were used to identify cutoff points within each PCRS and were further validated using a random selection of the original NSQIP dataset collected. RESULTS: Twenty-one variables were included in the initial analysis, which yielded unique relative risk score models for each procedure. Within all the risk score models, long operative time (within the last quartile) was a strong predictor of PPCs. An increased rate of PPCs was associated with increasing PCRS values in both the training and validation samples for all procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Important variables were identified for 6 common procedures that yield an increased risk of PPCs. These variables differed by procedure type, outlining the importance of procedure-specific risk scores. Each procedure-specific PCRS developed in this study can be used by health care professionals to better predict the risk of PPCs and to optimize patient outcomes.

Outcomes after Falls Continue to Worsen Despite Trauma and Geriatric Care Advancements.

The most common mechanism of traumatic injury is ground-level fall. The objective of this study was to understand how patients sustaining falls and their outcomes have evolved. An institutional trauma database was used to identify adult patients who suffered a fall and were admitted to a Level I trauma center during two distinct time periods: 1998 to 2003 (past) and 2008 to 2013 (current). Data on anticoagulant use and comorbidities was gathered by retrospective chart review of patients treated during 2003 and 2013. Univariable analyses and multivariable regression were used to evaluate demographics and outcomes. A total of 6116 patients were identified, with a 24 per cent increase in number of falls between groups. Current fall patients are older (70 vs 66 years, P < 0.001), more often admitted to intensive care (28 vs 12%, P < 0.001), have longer lengths of stay (5 vs 4 days, P < 0.001), are frequently discharged to skilled nursing facilities (24 vs 8%, P < 0.001), and have higher mortality (5 vs 3%, P = 0.002). The adjusted odds of mortality for patients treated during 2003 and 2013 was associated with age, gender, injury severity score, and Glasgow Coma Scale score. Current fall patients use more health care resources and have worse outcomes, despite advances in trauma and geriatric care.

Expanding the donor lung pool: how many donations after circulatory death organs are we missing?

BACKGROUND: The number of patients with end-stage pulmonary disease awaiting lung transplantation is at an all-time high, while the supply of available organs remains stagnant. Utilizing donation after circulatory death (DCD) donors may help to address the supply-demand mismatch. The objective of this study is to determine the potential donor pool expansion with increased procurement of DCD organs from patients who die at hospitals. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The charts of all patients who died at a single, rural, quaternary-care institution between August 2014 and June 2015 were reviewed for lung transplant candidacy. Inclusion criteria were age <65 y, absence of cancer and lung pathology, and cause of death other than respiratory or sepsis. RESULTS: A total of 857 patients died within a 1-year period and were stratified by age: pediatric <15 y (n = 32, 4%), young 15-64 y (n = 328, 38%), and old >65 y (n = 497, 58%). Those without cancer totaled 778 (90.8%) and 512 (59%) did not have lung pathology. This leaves 85 patients qualifying for DCD lung donation (pediatric n = 10, young n = 75, and old n = 0). Potential donors were significantly more likely to have clear chest X-rays (24.3% versus 10.0%, P < 0.0001) and higher mean PaO2/FiO2 (342.1 versus 197.9, P < 0.0001) compared with ineligible patients. CONCLUSIONS: A significant number of DCD lungs are available every year from patients who die within hospitals. We estimate the use of suitable DCD lungs could potentially result in a significant increase in the number of lungs available for transplantation.