A framework for assessing confidence in freedom from infection in animal disease control programmes.

In the Surveillance Tool for Outcome-based Comparison of FREEdom from infection (STOC free) project (https://www.stocfree.eu), a data collection tool was constructed to facilitate standardised collection of input data, and a model was developed to allow a standardised and harmonised comparison of the outputs of different control programmes (CPs) for cattle diseases. The STOC free model can be used to evaluate the probability of freedom from infection for herds in CPs and to determine whether these CPs comply with the European Union's pre-defined output-based standards. Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) was chosen as the case disease for this project because of the diversity in CPs in the six participating countries. Detailed BVDV CP and risk factor information was collected using the data collection tool. For inclusion of the data in the STOC free model, key aspects and default values were quantified. A Bayesian hidden Markov model was deemed appropriate, and a model was developed for BVDV CPs. The model was tested and validated using real BVDV CP data from partner countries, and corresponding computer code was made publicly available. The STOC free model focuses on herd-level data, although that animal-level data can be included after aggregation to herd level. The STOC free model is applicable to diseases that are endemic, given that it needs the presence of some infection to estimate parameters and enable convergence. In countries where infection-free status has been achieved, a scenario tree model could be a better suited tool. Further work is recommended to generalise the STOC free model to other diseases.

Dans le cadre du projet européen STOC free (Surveillance Tool for Outcome-based Comparison of FREEdom from infection, outil de surveillance permettant de comparer les probabilités d'absence d'infection sur la base des résultats, https://www.stocfree.eu), un outil de recueil des données a été construit pour faciliter une collecte normalisée des données d'entrée ; un modèle a également été élaboré pour permettre une comparaison normalisée et harmonisée des données sur les résultats des différents programmes de contrôle des maladies des bovins. Le modèle STOC free peut être utilisé pour évaluer la probabilité d'absence d'infection au sein des troupeaux dans le cadre des programmes de contrôle et déterminer si ces programmes sont conformes aux normes définies par l'Union européenne en termes de résultats attendus. L'infection par le virus de la diarrhée virale bovine a été choisie comme maladie d'étude pour ce projet en raison de la diversité des programmes de contrôle dans les six pays participants. Les informations relatives aux programmes de contrôle et aux facteurs de risque d'infection ont été recueillies à l'aide de l'outil de collecte des données. Les aspects clés et valeurs par défaut ont été quantifiés en vue d'être inclus dans le modèle STOC free. Un modèle de Markov caché dont les paramètres sont estimés par inférence bayésienne a été considéré comme le plus adapté et développé pour une application aux données issues des programmes de contrôle de la diarrhée virale bovine. Ce modèle a été testé et validé en utilisant des données réelles des programmes de contrôle du virus de la diarrhée virale bovine des pays participants ; le code informatique correspondant a été rendu public. Le modèle STOC free utilise des données au niveau des troupeaux, même si des données au niveau des animaux individuels peuvent être incluses une fois agrégées au niveau du troupeau. Le modèle STOC free s'applique aux maladies endémiques, puisqu'un certain niveau de présence de l'infection est nécessaire pour estimer les paramètres et permettre la convergence. Dans les pays ayant obtenu le statut indemne d'infection, un modèle du type arbre de scénario pourrait être un outil plus adapté. Des travaux supplémentaires sont recommandés pour généraliser le modèle STOC free à d'autres maladies.

Como parte del proyecto europeo STOC free (Surveillance Tool for Outcome-based Comparison of FREEdom from infection, herramienta de vigilancia para comparaciones por resultados respecto a la ausencia de infecciones, https://www.stocfree.eu), se confeccionó una herramienta de obtención de datos para facilitar la recogida normalizada de datos entrantes y se elaboró un modelo que posibilitara una comparación normalizada y armonizada de los resultados (datos salientes) de distintos programas de control de enfermedades bovinas. El modelo STOC free puede servir para calcular la probabilidad de ausencia de infección en los rebaños como parte de los programas de control y para determinar si estos programas se ajustan a las normas predefinidas de resultados de la Unión Europea. Como ejemplo de estudio para el proyecto se eligió el virus de la diarrea viral bovina (virus DVB) por la diversidad que presentaban los correspondientes programas de control de los seis países participantes. Empleando la herramienta de obtención de datos, se reunió información pormenorizada de los programas de control del virus DVB y los factores de riesgo. Para incluir los datos en el modelo STOC free, se cifraron unos aspectos clave y valores predeterminados Juzgando conveniente el empleo de un modelo oculto de Markov cuyos parámetros se estiman por inferencia bayesiana, se elaboró un modelo de esta índole aplicable a los programas de control del virus DVB. Para ensayar y validar el modelo se utilizaron datos reales de los programas de control del virus DVB de los países participantes, tras lo cual se hizo público el correspondiente código informático. El modelo STOC free trabaja con los datos por rebaño, aunque tras la agregación por rebaños pueden incluirse también datos por individuo. Para que este modelo sea aplicable a una enfermedad es preciso que esta sea endémica, pues el modelo requiere la presencia de cierto nivel de infección para calcular los parámetros y determinar convergencias. En aquellos países donde ya esté reconocida la ausencia de infección, sería más apropiado utilizar como herramienta un modelo de árbol de hipótesis. Los autores recomiendan ahondar en esta línea de trabajo para poder extender a otras enfermedades el uso del modelo STOC free.

Output-based assessment of herd-level freedom from infection in endemic situations: Application of a Bayesian Hidden Markov model.

Countries have implemented control programmes (CPs) for cattle diseases such as bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) that are tailored to each country-specific situation. Practical methods are needed to assess the output of these CPs in terms of the confidence of freedom from infection that is achieved. As part of the STOC free project, a Bayesian Hidden Markov model was developed, called STOC free model, to estimate the probability of infection at herd-level. In the current study, the STOC free model was applied to BVDV field data in four study regions, from CPs based on ear notch samples. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of herd-level freedom from BVDV in regions that are not (yet) free. We additionally evaluated the sensitivity of the parameter estimates and predicted probabilities of freedom to the prior distributions for the different model parameters. First, default priors were used in the model to enable comparison of model outputs between study regions. Thereafter, country-specific priors based on expert opinion or historical data were used in the model, to study the influence of the priors on the results and to obtain country-specific estimates. The STOC free model calculates a posterior value for the model parameters (e.g. herd-level test sensitivity and specificity, probability of introduction of infection) and a predicted probability of infection. The probability of freedom from infection was computed as one minus the probability of infection. For dairy herds that were considered free from infection within their own CP, the predicted probabilities of freedom were very high for all study regions ranging from 0.98 to 1.00, regardless of the use of default or country-specific priors. The priors did have more influence on two of the model parameters, herd-level sensitivity and the probability of remaining infected, due to the low prevalence and incidence of BVDV in the study regions. The advantage of STOC free model compared to scenario tree modelling, the reference method, is that actual data from the CP can be used and estimates are easily updated when new data becomes available.

Capacity of a Bayesian model to detect infected herds using disease dynamics and risk factor information from surveillance programmes: A simulation study.

Control programmes against non-regulated infectious diseases of farm animals are widely implemented. Different control programmes have different definitions of "freedom from infection" which can lead to difficulties when trading animals between countries. When a disease is still present, in order to identify herds that are safe to trade with, estimating herd-level probabilities of being infected when classified "free from infection" using field data is of major interest. Our objective was to evaluate the capacity of a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model, which computes a herd-level probability of being infected, to detect infected herds compared to using test results only. Herd-level risk factors, infection dynamics and associated test results were simulated in a population of herds, for a wide range of realistic infection contexts and test characteristics. The model was used to predict the infection status of each herd from longitudinal data: a simulated risk factor and a simulated test result. Two different indexes were used to categorize herds from the probability of being infected into a herd predicted status. The model predictive performances were evaluated using the simulated herd status as the gold standard. The model detected more infected herds than a single final test in 85 % of the scenarios which converged. The proportion of infected herds additionally detected by the model, compared to test results alone, varied depending on the context. It was higher in a context of a low herd test sensitivity. On average, around 20 %, for high test sensitivity scenarios, and 40 %, for low test sensitivity scenarios, of infected herds that were undetected by the test were accurately classified as infected by the model. Model convergence did not occur for 39 % of the scenarios, mainly in association with low herd test sensitivity. Detection of additional newly infected herds was always associated with an increased number of false positive herds (except for one scenario). The number of false positive herds was lower for scenarios with low herd test sensitivity and moderate to high incidence and prevalence. These results highlight the benefit of the model, in particular for control programmes with infection present at an endemic level in a population and reliance on test(s) of low sensitivity.

Modelling transmission and control of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis within Irish dairy herds with compact spring calving.

Paratuberculosis is a chronic bacterial infection of the intestine in cattle caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). To better understand Map transmission in Irish dairy herds, we adapted the French stochastic individual-based epidemiological simulation model to account for seasonal herd demographics. We investigated the probability of Map persistence over time, the within-herd prevalence over time, and the relative importance of transmission pathways, and assessed the relative effectiveness of test-and-cull control strategies. We investigated the impact on model outputs of calf separation from cows (calves grazed on pasture adjacent to cows vs. were completely separated from cows) and test-and-cull. Test-and-cull scenarios consisted of highly test-positive cows culled within 13 or 4 weeks after detection, and calf born to highly test-positive cows kept vs removed. We simulated a typical Irish dairy herd with on average 82 lactating cows, 112 animals in total. Each scenario was iterated 1000 times to adjust variation caused by stochasticity. Map was introduced in the fully naive herd through the purchase of a moderately infectious primiparous cow. Infection was considered to persist when at least one infected animal remained in the herd or when Map was present in the environment. The probability of Map persistence 15 years after introduction ranged between 32.2-42.7 % when calves and cows had contact on pasture, and between 18.9-29.4 % when calves and cows were separated on pasture. The most effective control strategy was to cull highly test-positive cows within four weeks of detection (absolute 10 % lower persistence compared to scenarios without control). Removing the offspring of highly test-positive dams did not affect either Map persistence or within-herd prevalence of Map. Mean prevalence 15 years after Map introduction was highest (63.5 %) when calves and cows had contact on pasture. Mean prevalence was 15 % lower (absolute decrease) when cows were culled within 13 weeks of a high test-positive result, and 28 % lower when culled within 4 weeks. Around calving, the infection rate was high, with calves being infected in utero or via the general indoor environment (most important transmission routes). For the remainder of the year, the incidence rate was relatively low with most calves being infected on pasture when in contact with cows. Testing and culling was an effective control strategy when it was used prior to the calving period to minimize the number of highly infectious cows present when calves were born.

Quantification of risk factors for bovine viral diarrhea virus in cattle herds: A systematic search and meta-analysis of observational studies.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is endemic in many parts of the world, and multiple countries have implemented surveillance activities for disease control or eradication. In such control programs, the disease-free status can be compromised by factors that pose risks for introduction or persistence of the virus. The aim of the present study was to gain a comprehensive overview of possible risk factors for BVDV infection in cattle herds in Europe and to assess their importance. Papers that considered risk factors for BVDV infection in cattle were identified through a systematic search. Further selection of papers eligible for quantitative analysis was performed using a predefined checklist, including (1) appropriate region (i.e., studies performed in Europe), (2) representativeness of the study population, (3) quality of statistical analysis, and (4) availability of sufficient quantitative data. In total, 18 observational studies were selected. Data were analyzed by a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled estimates of the odds of BVDV infection. Meta-analyses were performed on 6 risk factors: herd type, herd size, participation in shows or markets, introduction of cattle, grazing, and contact with other cattle herds on pasture. Significant higher odds were found for dairy herds (odds ratio, OR = 1.63, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.06-2.50) compared with beef herds, for larger herds (OR = 1.04 for every 10 extra animals in the herd, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06), for herds that participate in shows or markets (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.10-1.91), for herds that introduced cattle into the herd (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.18-1.69), and for herds that share pasture or have direct contact with cattle of other herds at pasture (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07-1.63). These pooled values must be interpreted with care, as there was a high level of heterogeneity between studies. However, they do give an indication of the importance of the most frequently studied risk factors and can therefore assist in the development, evaluation, and optimization of BVDV control programs.

A description and qualitative comparison of the elements of heterogeneous bovine viral diarrhea control programs that influence confidence of freedom.

For endemic infections in cattle that are not regulated at the European Union level, such as bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), European Member States have implemented control or eradication programs (CEP) tailored to their specific situations. Different methods are used to assign infection-free status in CEP; therefore, the confidence of freedom associated with the "free" status generated by different CEP are difficult to compare, creating problems for the safe trade of cattle between territories. Safe trade would be facilitated with an output-based framework that enables a transparent and standardized comparison of confidence of freedom for CEP across herds, regions, or countries. The current paper represents the first step toward development of such a framework by seeking to describe and qualitatively compare elements of CEP that contribute to confidence of freedom. For this work, BVDV was used as a case study. We qualitatively compared heterogeneous BVDV CEP in 6 European countries: Germany, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Scotland. Information about BVDV CEP that were in place in 2017 and factors influencing the risk of introduction and transmission of BVDV (the context) were collected using an existing tool, with modifications to collect information about aspects of control and context. For the 6 participating countries, we ranked all individual elements of the CEP and their contexts that could influence the probability that cattle from a herd categorized as BVDV-free are truly free from infection. Many differences in the context and design of BVDV CEP were found. As examples, CEP were either mandatory or voluntary, resulting in variation in risks from neighboring herds, and risk factors such as cattle density and the number of imported cattle varied greatly between territories. Differences were also found in both testing protocols and definitions of freedom from disease. The observed heterogeneity in both the context and CEP design will create difficulties when comparing different CEP in terms of confidence of freedom from infection. These results highlight the need for a standardized practical methodology to objectively and quantitatively determine confidence of freedom resulting from different CEP around the world.

Evaluation of the impact of a Herd Health and Production Management programme in organic dairy cattle farms: a process evaluation approach.

Animal health planning activities are not always providing a satisfactory positive impact on herd health and welfare. Moreover, evaluating the impact of advisory programmes is complex due to multiple interacting elements that influence its outcome. Therefore, measuring solely health outcomes is not sufficient: the whole process of the implementation and use of such programmes should be evaluated. In order to evaluate the impact of an intervention with a Herd Health and Production Management (HHPM) programme a process evaluation framework was designed and used. The intervention involved 20 organic dairy cattle farmers and their advisors, in both France and Sweden. In both countries 20 organic dairy farms were selected as control herds. The evaluation of the HHPM programme was based on: (a) the compliance to the programme; (b) the programme's functions influencing herd health management practices and stimulating dialogue between farmers and advisors; (c) its effectiveness in terms of improving herd health compared with control farms. Complete compliance to the programme was fulfilled by 21 out of 40 farmers-advisors. Results from a questionnaire showed that the programme functioned as intended (e.g. by allowing early identification of herd health problems), stimulated change in farmers' herd health management practices and farmer-advisor dialogue. Even though the majority of the users perceived that the programme contributed to herd health improvements, no significant differences in health outcomes were found when compared with control farms 12 months after the start of the intervention. The programme allowed creating an environment promoting the exchange of information between farmers and advisors, necessary to define pertinent advice in a farm-specific situation. Future research should aim at improving methods for the evaluation of the effect of advisory programmes, by identifying early indicators for effective advice and developing methods to evaluate the quality of advisory situations without interfering with them.

How can veterinarians be interesting partners for organic dairy farmers? French farmers' point of views.

Organic dairy farmers must live up to the organic goal of 'good health' in respect the organic principles and regulation. Veterinarians could be the organic dairy farmers' expected sparring partners in reaching this goal but have found difficulties to establish advisory relationships with them. The objectives of this study are -from organic dairy farmers' points of view- (i) to describe farmers' objectives and strategies regarding herd health, (ii) to describe private veterinarians' roles in farmers' animal health promotion strategies and (iii) to identify farmers' reasons for accepting veterinarians in an advisory role. Fourteen organic dairy farmers were interviewed using qualitative research interviews. Data collection and analysis was performed using a modified approach to Grounded Theory. Organic dairy farmers had animal health management strategies focusing on animal health promotion. Veterinarians had most often solely the role of therapist in farmers' animal health management strategies. Reasons explaining that veterinarians were not able to establish advisory roles were found in the differences between veterinarians and farmers regarding their animal health strategies and solutions to disease problems. Furthermore, veterinarians did not always share farmers' (organic) objectives, values and priorities and this could lead to disagreement on the best choice in animal health management practices. This might be further amplified in situations where there exists a lack of dialogue and mutual interest in other.

Antibiotic use by farmers to control mastitis as influenced by health advice and dairy farming systems.

Mastitis is a bacterial disease common in dairy farms. Although knowledge about mastitis and its optimal technical management and treatment is now available, some dairy farmers still use antibiotics in inappropriate ways. Antibiotic use by farmers can be influenced by personal restraints and motivations, but it can be assumed that external drivers are also influential. The main purpose of this article is thus to analyse the choices of antibiotic and alternative medicine use for mastitis treatment and investigate the possible influence of two unexplored external drivers in dairy farms: (i) the health advice offered to farmers by farm advisors and veterinarians, (ii) the dairy farming system, as defined by combining the market valuation chosen for the milk, the level of intensification, and the perceived pressure related to investments. Research was based on 51 individual semi-structured interviews with farmers and their corresponding veterinarians and farm advisors. Based on verbatim, the use of antibiotics and alternative medicine by farmers for mastitis treatment, the vet-farmers interactions, and the dairy farming systems are described. The advisory relationships between farmers and farm advisors and between farmers and veterinarians influenced the implementation of selective dry cow therapy, but had very little effect on the use of alternative medicines by farmers, who were more willing to experiment alternative medicines than their advisors. The dairy farming system had very little influence on antibiotic use: some misuse of antibiotics was found whatever the farming system. Systematic dry cow therapy was also a widespread habit in all dairy farming systems except organic. The use of alternative medicine was common in all farming systems.

Effectiveness and Cost Efficiency of Different Surveillance Components for Proving Freedom and Early Detection of Disease: Bluetongue Serotype 8 in Cattle as Case Study for Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

Quick detection and recovery of country's freedom status remain a constant challenge in animal health surveillance. The efficacy and cost efficiency of different surveillance components in proving the absence of infection or (early) detection of bluetongue serotype 8 in cattle populations within different countries (the Netherlands, France, Belgium) using surveillance data from years 2006 and 2007 were investigated using an adapted scenario tree model approach. First, surveillance components (sentinel, yearly cross-sectional and passive clinical reporting) within each country were evaluated in terms of efficacy for substantiating freedom of infection. Yearly cross-sectional survey and passive clinical reporting performed well within each country with sensitivity of detection values ranging around 0.99. The sentinel component had a sensitivity of detection around 0.7. Secondly, how effective the components were for (early) detection of bluetongue serotype 8 and whether syndromic surveillance on reproductive performance, milk production and mortality data available from the Netherlands and Belgium could be of added value were evaluated. Epidemic curves were used to estimate the timeliness of detection. Sensitivity analysis revealed that expected within-herd prevalence and number of herds processed were the most influential parameters for proving freedom and early detection. Looking at the assumed direct costs, although total costs were low for sentinel and passive clinical surveillance components, passive clinical surveillance together with syndromic surveillance (based on reproductive performance data) turned out most cost-efficient for the detection of bluetongue serotype 8. To conclude, for emerging or re-emerging vectorborne disease that behaves such as bluetongue serotype 8, it is recommended to use passive clinical and syndromic surveillance as early detection systems for maximum cost efficiency and sensitivity. Once an infection is detected and eradicated, cross-sectional screening for substantiating freedom of infection and sentinel for monitoring the disease evolution are recommended.

Perceptions of French private veterinary practitioners' on their role in organic dairy farms and opportunities to improve their advisory services for organic dairy farmers.

Veterinarians could be the expected sparring partners of organic dairy farmers in promoting animal health which is one of the main organic principles. However, in the past organic dairy farmers did not always consider veterinarians to be pertinent advisors for them. The objectives of this study are - from private veterinary practitioners' point of views- i) to describe the roles of veterinarians today in organic dairy farmers' animal health promotion strategies, ii) to identify factors related to organic farming which determine their role on organic dairy farms, and, iii) to identify opportunities for improvement of veterinarians' advisory services for organic dairy herds. Fourteen veterinarians, providing herd health advisory services to dairy farmers, were interviewed using qualitative semi-structured research interviews. A modified approach to Grounded Theory was used for data collection and analysis. Most often veterinarians had only contact with the organic dairy farmers in cases of individual ill animals or acute herd health problems. Even though certain veterinarians experienced situations and approaches of animal health and welfare on organic dairy farms not meeting their standards, they were not always able to establish themselves an advisory role supporting farmers in improving this. Indeed, organic production principles, regulations and farmers' health approaches challenged veterinarians' values on animal health and welfare and their perceptions of 'good veterinary practices'. Also, some veterinarians considered that there was no direct economic interest for them in the organic dairy sector and that could diminish their willingness to invest in this sector. Possible opportunities for improvement were identified; for example proposing more proactively advice via existing organisations, by making adaptations to advisory services for the organic sector and/or by dissociating veterinarians' curative role from their advisory role in disease prevention.

Assessing, and understanding, European organic dairy farmers' intentions to improve herd health.

Many believe the health status of organic dairy herds in Europe should be improved to meet consumers' and legislators' expectations to improve animal welfare. This paper reports on a study in four countries that examined dairy farmers' intentions towards improving the health status of their organic herds through the use of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. It was found that farmers across the countries were positive about taking additional preventative measures to improve the health status of their herds. They believed this would not only improve herd physical performance, such as milk yield and fertility, but also achieve greater cost effectiveness and improved job satisfaction for them. Most study farmers would implement a tailored package of improvement measures designed by the study team with higher uptake most likely being by younger farmers, those who make greater use of veterinarians and professional advisory services, and those supplying specialist milk-marketing chains. Furthermore, farmers will be most likely to take-up additional health promotion if compatible with their everyday activities and if they have strong business performance goals aimed at maximising the physical performance of the herd.

A participatory approach to design monitoring indicators of production diseases in organic dairy farms.

Production diseases have an important negative effect on the health and welfare of dairy cows. Although organic animal production systems aim for high animal health levels, compliance with European organic farming regulations does not guarantee that this is achieved. Herd health and production management (HHPM) programs aim at optimizing herd health by preventing disease and production problems, but as yet they have not been consistently implemented by farmers. We hypothesize that one reason is the mismatch between what scientists propose as indicators for herd health monitoring and what farmers would like to use. Herd health monitoring is a key element in HHPM programs as it permits a regular assessment of the functioning of the different components of the production process. Planned observations or measurements of these components are indispensable for this monitoring. In this study, a participatory approach was used to create an environment in which farmers could adapt the indicators proposed by scientists for monitoring the five main production diseases on dairy cattle farms. The adaptations of the indicators were characterized and the farmers' explanations for the changes made were described. The study was conducted in France and Sweden, which differ in terms of their national organic regulations and existing advisory services. In both countries, twenty certified organic dairy farmers and their animal health management advisors participated in the study. All of the farmers adapted the initial monitoring plan proposed by scientists to specific production and animal health situation on their farm. This resulted in forty unique and farm-specific combinations of indicators for herd health monitoring. All but three farmers intended to monitor five health topics simultaneously using the constructed indicators. The qualitative analysis of the explanations given by farmers for their choices enabled an understanding of farmers' reasons for selecting and adapting indicators. This is valuable information for scientists involved in the design of HHPM programs. Advisors in the field also can benefit from this participatory approach because it transforms monitoring tools provided by scientists into farm-specific tools.

Evaluation of testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis.

As part of a broader control strategy within herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), individual animal testing is generally conducted to identify infected animals for action, usually culling. Opportunities are now available to quantitatively compare different testing strategies (combinations of tests) in known infected herds. This study evaluates the effectiveness, cost, and cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be MAP infected. A model was developed, taking account of both within-herd infection dynamics and test performance, to simulate the use of different tests at a single round of testing in a known infected herd. Model inputs included the number of animals at different stages of infection, the sensitivity and specificity of each test, and the costs of testing and culling. Testing strategies included either milk or serum ELISA alone or with fecal culture in series. Model outputs included effectiveness (detection fraction, the proportion of truly infected animals in the herd that are successfully detected by the testing strategy), cost, and cost-effectiveness (testing cost per true positive detected, total cost per true positive detected). Several assumptions were made: MAP was introduced with a single animal and no management interventions were implemented to limit within-herd transmission of MAP before this test. In medium herds, between 7 and 26% of infected animals are detected at a single round of testing, the former using the milk ELISA and fecal culture in series 5 yr after MAP introduction and the latter using fecal culture alone 15 yr after MAP introduction. The combined costs of testing and culling at a single round of testing increases with time since introduction of MAP infection, with culling costs being much greater than testing costs. The cost-effectiveness of testing varied by testing strategy. It was also greater at 5 yr, compared with 10 or 15 yr, since MAP introduction, highlighting the importance of early detection. Future work is needed to evaluate these testing strategies in subsequent rounds of testing as well as accounting for different herd dynamics and different levels of herd biocontainment.

Resilience of a beef cow-calf farming system to variations in demographic parameters.

Beef cow-calf farming systems are assumed to be resilient to biological disturbances that induce variations in herd demography; however, this hypothesis has not been fully investigated to date. Modeling is an interesting approach to study farming system resilience and to evaluate the impact of biological disturbances, taking into account interactions between system components, including biological variability and management practices. Our objective was to evaluate the resilience of beef cow-calf farming systems to variations in fertility and mortality using a modeling approach. We studied the direct effect of variations in demographic parameters on production objectives without explicitly representing the causes of the variations. We developed a stochastic model to represent the population dynamics of a beef cow-calf herd with breeding by natural service and biological processes occurring at the animal level. The model was validated by comparing observed and simulated distributions of the calving-to-calving interval, which were found to be consistent. Resistance was evaluated by the proportion of simulations where the objective in terms of number of weaned calves is reached even when there is a disturbance that persists for 10 yr. Reversibility was evaluated by the time needed to return to the predisturbance production level. Beef cow-calf farming systems did not appear to be resistant to variations in mortality and infertility rates except when increases in the infertility rates were low (0.02 for cows and 0.03 for heifers). Critical situations, consequently, may emerge with regard to farm production if management practices are not adapted. Reversibility was observed for disturbances that persist for up to 5 yr. However, the system needed 2 to 3 yr to recover its predisturbance production level and up to 4 yr after an increase in cow infertility of 0.12.

Decrease in milk yield associated with exposure to bluetongue virus serotype 8 in cattle herds.

Decreased milk yield and reduced fertility are the primary consequences of infection by bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8). These effects must be quantified to fully assess the economic benefit of vaccination. This can be estimated by measuring the effect of BTV-8 exposure on milk yield and fertility for all cows belonging to an infected herd. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify the mean effect of exposure to BTV-8 on milk yield following natural challenge for cows in herds previously naïve, (2) to determine the duration of reduced milk yield before and after the date disease was first detected in the herd to estimate the cumulative loss of milk yield during this period, and (3) to evaluate the influence of the proportion of infected neighboring herds on the reduction in milk yield following exposure to BTV-8. The effects of exposure to BTV-8 during the French outbreak of 2007 were assessed using mixed linear models, which allow adjustment for factors known to influence milk yield. Exposure to BTV-8 was associated with a sharp decrease in milk yield over a period of 6 mo (2 mo before to 4 mo after the reported date of disease detection in the herd). The cumulative loss of milk yield was more than 3% of annual production. The relatively earlier reduction in milk yield in infected herds detected later in the outbreak period suggests that detection of clinical signs was delayed in these herds. Finally, the greatest decrease in milk yield was observed in herds detected early during the outbreak period and located in areas with the highest disease incidence. This may be due to a greater within-herd incidence or to a greater amount of virus injected by midges to individual cows in these herds.

Increase in the occurrence of abortions associated with exposure to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 in naïve dairy herds.

The transplacental transmission capacity demonstrated for Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in cattle probably is associated with an increased occurrence of abortions. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effect of BTV-8 exposure on the occurrence of abortions in previously naive dairy cow herds under natural infection conditions, and to determine a possible risk period during pregnancy associated with this increase. Two criteria were considered in order to estimate the occurrence of abortion: late return-to-service after a first artificial insemination (AI), and short gestations. A late return-to-service was defined as a return taking place 90 to 200 days after a first AI. These criteria were compared between cows in herds exposed during the 2007 epizootic in France and cows in herds that were not exposed. To determine the risk period during a pregnancy, variations in the occurrence of abortions were quantified according to the stage of the pregnancy during which the exposure took place. Survival analyses were used to estimate the risk of increased occurrence of abortion associated with BTV-8 exposure, adjusted by the principal factors known to influence the risk of abortion. Exposure to the BTV-8 virus under natural conditions in previously naive dairy herds notified after clinical suspicion during the 2007 epizootic was associated with an increase in the occurrence of abortions, regardless of the stage of pregnancy. The at-risk gestation period depended on the criteria used to detect abortions. The mean effect of BTV-8 exposure in the ensemble of detected outbreaks corresponded to an increase of 6.7% in late return-to-service. BTV-8 exposure during the first 3 mo of gestation was associated with a 15% increase in late return-to-service for cows with no return-to-service at 90 days, while this increase was 6% for exposure starting from the third month of gestation (in outbreaks detected in September). BTV-8 exposure from the third month of gestation was associated with a 1.9% increase of short gestations. The effect of exposure was more pronounced for outbreaks detected early in the epizootic compared with those detected later.

Quantification and at-risk period of decreased fertility associated with exposure to bluetongue virus serotype 8 in naïve dairy herds.

The detrimental effect of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) on fertility was quantified in seroconverting cows. Although the effect on individual cows provides information regarding the potential biological burden of infection, losses at a herd level are also dependent on the proportion of infected cows within the herd. The objectives of this study were to quantify the average effect of BTV-8 exposure in field conditions on the fertility of dairy cows in previously naïve herds, and to determine the at-risk period of decreased fertility related to the date of detection of the disease in the herd. The effect of BTV-8 exposure on fertility was assessed using the 90-d-return-to-service rates after the first artificial insemination (AI) calculated for cows in exposed herds (during the 2007 epizootic in France) and compared with that for cows in unexposed herds. Only herds with a confirmed detection that were reported after clinical suspicion were included. To determine the at-risk period of decreased fertility, variations of fertility in exposed herds were quantified according to the time interval between the date of AI for individual cows and the date that disease was detected in the herd. Survival analyses were used to assess the risk of decreased fertility associated with BTV-8 exposure, adjusting for the main factors known to influence fertility. The episode at risk for decreased fertility depended on the month of disease detection in the herd. For herds detected early in the epizootic, fertility was decreased for cows inseminated from 1 mo before to 1 mo after the date of disease detection in the herd. Depending on time interval between the date of AI of cows and the date of detection in the herd, the increase of return-to-service rate associated with BTV-8 exposure varied from 8 to 21 percentage points of 90-d return to service. The episode of decreased fertility is likely due to a combination of the effect of the infection at different stages of conception and early pregnancy and the delayed exposure of cows due to the spreading of the virus within herds. For herds detected during the second half of the epizootic, fertility was decreased for cows inseminated more than 2 mo before detection, which suggests a delay in the detection of clinical signs following virus introduction in the herd. No correlation was observed between the effect of BTV-8 exposure on fertility and the incidence of BTV-8 in the local geographical area. Given the duration of the period that cows were at risk for decreased fertility and the magnitude of the effect, the average BTV-8 exposure in naïve herds led to major losses.

Within-herd contact structure and transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in a persistently infected dairy cattle herd.

Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.

Within-herd biosecurity and Salmonella seroprevalence in slaughter pigs: a simulation study.

In Europe, on-farm biosecurity measures, involving a strict all-in/all-out batch-management system and decontamination of the rearing rooms between consecutive batches, are recommended to control Salmonella infection in growing pigs. However, implementation of these measures is often relaxed under common farming conditions. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the relative contributions of batch-management system and room decontamination efficacy on Salmonella seroprevalence for different growing rates and subsequent slaughter ages of pigs. Because the impact of these factors cannot be easily evaluated by an observational approach in commercial farms, a stochastic simulation model representing the population dynamics, herd management, and Salmonella infection within a farrow-to-finish pig herd was used. Realistic levels were set for each factor under study (3 for batch-management system and slaughter age; 4 for room decontamination) to generate 54 simulation scenarios. Salmonella shedding prevalence in groups of slaughter pigs was then compared. A sensitivity analysis was performed to rank the impacts of the 3 factors on output. Batch-management system had little effect. In contrast, room decontamination efficacy had the greatest impact on Salmonella prevalence in pigs at slaughter. A drop in decontamination efficacy from 100 to 50%, with a strict all-in/all-out batch-management system and for all slaughter ages tested, noticeably increased (P<0.001) the prevalence and almost doubled it for the reference slaughter age. Our results suggest that the control of Salmonella in pig herds should primarily focus on room decontamination efficacy. Provided that a good level of room decontamination is ensured, some flexibility in batch management, in terms of pig mixing, would be acceptable to limit the number of underweight pigs delivered to the slaughterhouse.