Associations of social determinants of health with life expectancy and future health risks among individuals with type 2 diabetes: two nationwide cohort studies in the UK and USA.

BACKGROUND: Social determinants of health (SDHs) are the primary drivers of preventable health inequities, and the associations between SDHs and health outcomes among individuals with type 2 diabetes remain unclear. This study aimed to estimate the associations of combined SDHs with life expectancy and future health risks among adults with type 2 diabetes from the UK and USA. METHODS: In an analysis of two nationwide cohort studies, adults with type 2 diabetes were identified from the UK Biobank from March 13, 2006, to Oct 1, 2010 (adults aged 37-73 years) and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2018 (adults aged ≥20 years). Participants with type 2 diabetes at baseline were included in our analysis. Participants without information on SDHs or follow-up were excluded. The UK Biobank assessed 17 SDHs and the US NHANES assessed ten SDHs, with each SDH dichotomised into advantaged and disadvantaged levels. The combined score of SDHs were calculated as the sum of the weighted scores for each SDH. Participants were then categorised into tertiles (favourable, medium, and unfavourable SDH groups). Primary outcomes were life expectancy and mortality in both cohorts, and incidences of cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related microvascular disease, dementia, and cancer in the UK Biobank. Outcomes were obtained from disease registries up until Dec 31, 2021, in the UK Biobank and Dec 31, 2019, in the US NHANES cohorts. FINDINGS: We included 17 321 participants from the UK Biobank cohort (median age 61·0 years [IQR 56·0-65·0]; 6028 [34·8%] women and 11 293 [65·2%] men) and 7885 participants from the NHANES cohort (mean age 59·2 years [95% CI 58·7-59·6]; 3835 [49·1%, weighted] women and 4050 [50·9%, weighted] men) in our analysis. In the UK Biobank, 3235 deaths (median follow-up 12·3 years [IQR 11·5-13·2]), 3010 incident cardiovascular disease (12·1 years [10·8-13·0]), 1997 diabetes-related microvascular disease (8·0 years [7·1-8·9]), 773 dementia (12·6 years [11·8-13·5]), and 2259 cancer cases (11·3 years [10·4-12·2]) were documented; and the US NHANES documented 2278 deaths during a median follow-up of 7·0 years (3·7-11·2). After multivariable adjustment, compared with the favourable SDH group, the hazard ratio was 1·33 (95% CI 1·21-1·46) in the medium SDH group and 1·89 (1·72-2·07) in the unfavourable SDH group in the UK Biobank cohort; 1·51 (1·34-1·70) in the medium SDH group and 2·02 (1·75-2·33) in the unfavourable SDH group in the US NHANES cohort for all-cause mortality; 1·13 (1·04-1·24) in the medium SDH group and 1·40 (1·27-1·53) in the unfavourable SDH group for incident cardiovascular disease; 1·13 (1·01-1·27) in the medium SDH group and 1·41 (1·26-1·59) in the unfavourable SDH group for incident diabetes-related microvascular disease; 1·35 (1·11-1·64) in the medium SDH group and 1·76 (1·46-2·13) in the unfavourable SDH group for incident dementia; and 1·02 (0·92-1·13) in the medium SDH group and 1·17 (1·05-1·30) in the unfavourable SDH group for incident cancer in the UK Biobank cohort (ptrend<0·010 for each category). At the age of 45 years, the mean life expectancy of participants was 1·6 years (0·6-2·3) shorter in the medium SDH group and 4·4 years (3·3-5·4) shorter in the unfavourable SDH group than in the favourable SDH group in the UK Biobank. In the US NHAHES cohort, the life expectancy was 1·7 years (0·6-2·7) shorter in the medium SDH group and 3·0 years (1·8-4·3) shorter in the unfavourable SDH group, compared with the favourable group. INTERPRETATION: Combined unfavourable SDHs were associated with a greater loss of life expectancy and higher risks of developing future adverse health outcomes among adults with type 2 diabetes. These associations were similar across two nationwide cohorts from varied social contexts, and were largely consistent across populations with different demographic, lifestyle, and clinical features. Thus, assessing the combined SDHs of individuals with type 2 diabetes might be a promising approach to incorporate into diabetes care to identify socially vulnerable groups and reduce disease burden. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Key R&D Program of China, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Planetary Health Diet Compared to Dutch Dietary Guidelines: Nutritional Content and Adequacy.

In 2019, the EAT-Lancet Commission proposed a Planetary Health Diet (PHD) to address challenges toward sustainable and healthy diets. However, its suitability within the Dutch context and a comparison with the Dutch Dietary Guidelines (DDG) needs investigation. Our study aimed to compare the PHD with DDG in terms of food groups, servings, nutritional content, and adequacy in adults. We modeled two theoretical diets, the PHD (PHD-NL) and another based on the DDG (DDG-NL), using the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey (FCS-2016) and Dutch Food Composition Database to calculate the nutritional content and compared it with the Dutch Dietary Reference Values (DRVs). The PHD included higher quantities of vegetables, fish, legumes, and nuts, while the DDG suggested more significant amounts of cereals, tubers, starchy vegetables, dairy, and red meat. We observed differences in macronutrient distribution; while both diets lacked sufficient vitamin D, calcium content was lower in the PHD-NL. The PHD-NL had higher levels of fiber, vegetable protein, unsaturated fats, and non-heme iron, while vitamins B2, B6, B12, and calcium were lower than the DDG-NL diet. The PHD-NL has nutritional adequacy in the Dutch context, except for vitamin D and calcium, although it is essential to be cautious with iron because of the bioavailability of non-heme iron in plant-based diets. These findings have implications for the adoption of a sustainable diet according to nutritional requirements, population health status, and sociocultural context, as well as compliance with specific dietary behaviors of populations.

Adherence to a planetary health diet, genetic susceptibility, and incident cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The influence of adherence to a planetary health diet (PHD) proposed by the EAT-Lancet Commission on cardiovascular disease (CVD) is inconclusive. Besides, whether genetic susceptibility to CVD can modify the association of PHD with CVD remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the association between adherence to PHD and CVD, and to evaluate the interaction between PHD and genetic predisposition to CVD. METHODS: This study included 114,165 participants who completed at least two 24-h dietary recalls and were initially free of CVD from the UK Biobank. PHD score was calculated to assess adherence to PHD. Genetic risk was evaluated using the polygenic risk score. Incidence of total CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and stroke were identified via electronic health records. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.9 y, 10,071 (8.8%) incident CVD cases were documented. Compared with participants with the lowest adherence to PHD, HRs (95% CIs) for total CVD, IHD, AF, HF, and stroke among those with the highest adherence were 0.79 (0.74, 0.84), 0.73 (0.67, 0.79), 0.90 (0.82, 0.99), 0.69 (0.59, 0.82), and 0.88 (0.75, 1.04), respectively. No significant interaction between the genetic risk of CVD and PHD was observed. Participants with high genetic risk and low PHD score, as compared with those with low genetic risk and high PHD score, had a 48% (95% CI: 40%, 56%) higher risk of CVD. The population-attributable risk (95% CI) of CVD for poor adherence to PHD ranged from 8.79% (5.36%, 12.51%) to 14.00% (9.00%, 18.88%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that higher adherence to PHD was associated with lower risk of total CVD, IHD, AF, and HF in populations across all genetic risk categories.

Association of ultraprocessed food consumption with risk of microvascular complications among individuals with type 2 diabetes in the UK Biobank: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The poor nutritional characteristics and potentially harmful molecules in ultraprocessed foods (UPFs) are risk factors for diabetic microvascular complications. However, the evidence regarding UPFs and diabetic microvascular complications remains limited. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the associations between UPF consumption and risk of diabetic microvascular complications, to examine the underlying biological pathways (e.g., inflammation and lipid profile), and to identify whether the associations differ by type of UPF dietary patterns. METHODS: We included a prospective cohort of UK Biobank participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) having at least one 24-h dietary recall (N = 5685). UPFs were defined using the Nova classification. Principal component analysis was used to derive UPF consumption patterns. Associations of UPFs and their consumption patterns with microvascular complications were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Mediation analyses were used to estimate the mediating effects of 22 biomarkers. RESULTS: During a median of 12.7 y of follow-up, 1243 composite microvascular complications events occurred (599 diabetic retinopathy, 237 diabetic neuropathy, and 662 diabetic kidney disease events). Five consumption patterns were identified (spread and bread, cereal prepared with liquids, dairy-based products, sugary beverage and snack, and mixed beverage and savory snack patterns). A 10% increment in the proportion of UPF was associated with higher hazards of the composite microvascular complications (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 1.13) and diabetic kidney disease (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.20). Triglycerides, C-reactive protein, and body mass index collectively explained 22.0% (9.6%-43.0%) of the association between UPF intake and composite microvascular complications. Pattern high in mixed beverage and savory snack was associated with a higher risk of composite microvascular complications. CONCLUSIONS: Higher UPF consumption was associated with higher risks of diabetic microvascular complications, and the association was partly mediated through multiple potential ways.

Prevalence of obesity and overweight in an adult population of Tehran metropolis.

Purpose: Obesity is a chronic low-grade inflammatory condition with increasing global prevalence and is associated with cardiovascular diseases. In this study, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of obesity in the Tehran cohort study (TeCS) population. Methods: We used the data collected by systematic random sampling during the recruitment phase of TeCS. The data comprised 4215 households from all districts of the Tehran metropolis, from which 8296 adults aged ≥ 35 years participated between May 2016 and February 2019. Sociodemographic data, medical history, laboratory tests, and anthropometric measurements were gathered from the participants. Participants with missing data were excluded from the final analysis. Finally, the data was analyzed using SPSS version 23, and distribution maps were created by Stata 14.2. Results: A total of 8211 participants (53.9% women) with an average age of 53.7 ± 12.6 years were studied. The age-weighted prevalence of overweight and obese among women was (37.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 34.5, 40.6] and 35.5% [95% CI: 32.6 -38.6]) compared to men (47% [95% CI: 43.6, 50.3] and 22.9% [95% CI: 20.1 -25.8]). The prevalence of substantially increased risk of metabolic complications (SIRMC) based on waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) was 49.2% (95% CI: 46.3 -52.2) and 75.5% (95% CI: 72.7 -78.1) respectively. Conclusions: The prevalence of obesity in Tehran (29.3%) was much higher than in previous reports, particularly among older people, women, and socioeconomically underdeveloped districts. After age 55, more than 80% of women had SIRMC compared to 30% of men. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01365-4.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, vitamin D receptor polymorphisms, and risk of infections among individuals with type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and infections among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), a group susceptible to vitamin D deficiency and infections, is limited. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine this association in individuals with T2D, and to evaluate whether genetic variants in vitamin D receptor (VDR) would modify this association. METHODS: This study included 19,851 participants with T2D from United Kingdom Biobank. Infections were identified by linkage to hospital inpatient and death registers. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with adjustment of potential confounders. RESULTS: In patients with T2D, the incidence rate of infections was 29.3/1000 person-y. Compared with those with 25(OH)D of 50.0-74.9 nmol/L, the multivariable-adjusted IRRs and 95% CIs of total infections, pneumonia, gastrointestinal infections, and sepsis were 1.44 (1.31, 1.59), 1.49 (1.27, 1.75), 1.47 (1.22, 1.78), and 1.41 (1.14, 1.73), respectively, in patients with 25(OH)D <25.0 nmol/L. Nonlinear inverse associations between 25(OH)D concentrations and the risks of total infections (P-overall < 0.001; P-nonlinear = 0.002) and gastrointestinal infections (P-overall < 0.001; P-nonlinear = 0.040) were observed, with a threshold effect at ∼50.0 nmol/L. The vitamin D-infection association was not modified by genetic variants in VDR (all P-interaction > 0.050). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with T2D, lower serum 25(OH)D concentration (<50 nmol/L) was associated with higher risks of infections, regardless of genetic variants in VDR. Notably, nonlinear inverse associations between 25(OH)D concentrations and the risks of infections were found, with a threshold effect at ∼50.0 nmol/L. These findings highlighted the importance of maintaining adequate vitamin D in reducing the risk of infections in patients with T2D.

Epidemiology and Prevalence of Dyslipidemia Among Adult Population of Tehran: The Tehran Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is among the leading risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), with an increasing global burden, especially in developing countries. We investigated the prevalence of dyslipidemia and abnormal lipid profiles in Tehran. METHODS: We used data from 8072 individuals aged≥35 from the Tehran Cohort Study (TeCS) recruitment phase. Fasting serum total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride were measured. Dyslipidemia was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, and high LDL/HDL was defined as a ratio>2.5. The age-sex standardized prevalence rates were calculated based on the 2016 national census. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of dyslipidemia and lipid abnormalities was investigated across Tehran's zip code districts. RESULTS: The age-sex standardized prevalence was 82.7% (95% CI: 80.1%, 85.0%) for dyslipidemia, 36.9% (95% CI: 33.8%, 40.1%) for hypertriglyceridemia, 22.5% (95% CI: 19.9%, 25.4%) for hypercholesterolemia, 29.0% (95% CI: 26.1%, 32.1%) for high LDL-C, 55.9% (95% CI: 52.6%, 59.2%) for low HDL-C, and 54.1% (95% CI: 50.9%, 57.3%) for high LDL/HDL ratio in the Tehran adult population. The prevalence of dyslipidemia, low HDL-C, and high LDL/HDL ratio was higher in the northern regions, hypercholesterolemia was higher in the southern half, and high LDL-C was more prevalent in the middle-northern and southern areas of Tehran. CONCLUSION: We found a high prevalence of dyslipidemia, mainly high LDL/HDL in the Tehran adult population. This dyslipidemia profiling provides important information for public health policy to improve preventive interventions and reduce dyslipidemiarelated morbidity and mortality in the future.

Healthy ageing in a multi-ethnic population: A descriptive cross-sectional analysis from the HELIUS study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated ethnic health disparities in the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting multi-ethnic cohort using the multidimensional Healthy Ageing Score. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the study baseline data (2011-2015) collected through questionnaires/physical examinations for 17,091 participants (54.8 % women, mean (SD) age = 44.5 (12.8) years) from South-Asian Surinamese (14.8 %), African Surinamese (20.5 %), Dutch (24.3 %), Moroccan (15.5 %), Turkish (14.9 %), and Ghanaian (10.1 %) origins, living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We computed the Healthy Ageing Score developed in the Rotterdam Study, which has seven biopsychosocial domains: chronic diseases, mental health, cognitive function, physical function, pain, social support, and quality of life. That score was used to discern between healthy, moderate, and poor ageing. We explored differences in healthy ageing by ethnicity, sex, and age group using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The Healthy Ageing Score [overall: poor (69.0 %), moderate (24.8 %), and healthy (6.2 %)] differed between ethnicities and was poorer in women and after midlife (cut-off 45 years) across ethnicities (all p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted models in men and women, poor ageing (vs. healthy ageing) was highest in the South-Asian Surinamese [adjusted odds ratios (95 % confidence intervals)] [2.96 (2.24-3.90) and 6.88 (3.29-14.40), respectively] and Turkish [2.80 (2.11-3.73) and 7.10 (3.31-15.24), respectively] vs. Dutch, in the oldest [5.89 (3.62-9.60) and 13.17 (1.77-98.01), respectively] vs. youngest, and in the divorced [1.48 (1.10-2.01) and 2.83 (1.39-5.77), respectively] vs. married. Poor ageing was inversely associated with educational and occupational levels, mainly in men. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with those of Dutch ethnic origin, ethnic minorities displayed less healthy ageing, which was more pronounced in women, before and after midlife, and was associated with sociodemographic factors.

The value of mathematical modelling approaches in epidemiology for public health decisión making

It is discussed the relevance of quantitative approaches, specifically mathematical modelling in epidemiology, in the public health decision-making process. This topic is discussed here based on the experience of various experts in mathematical epidemiology and public health. First, the definition of mathematical modelling is presented, especially in the context of epidemiology. Second, the different uses and socio-political implications, including empirical examples of recent experiences that have taken place at the international level are addressed. Finally, some general considerations regarding the challenges encountered in the use and application of mathematical modelling in epidemiology in the decision-making process at the local and national levels.

Se trata sobre la importancia de los abordajes cuantitativos, específicamente la formulación de modelos matemáticos en epidemiología, dentro del proceso de toma de decisiones en salud pública. Esta importante temática se analiza basándose en la experiencia de algunos expertos en epidemiología matemática y salud pública. En primer lugar, se presenta la definición de modelación matemática, particularmente dentro del contexto de la epidemiología. En segundo lugar, se abordan los diferentes usos y las implicaciones socio-políticas, incluyendo ejemplos de experiencias recientes que han ocurrido a nivel internacional. Finalmente, se hace referencia a ciertas consideraciones generales respecto a los retos que representa el uso y la aplicación de modelos matemáticos en epidemiología para el proceso de toma de decisiones a nivel local y nacional.

Two cosmoses, one universe: a narrative review exploring the gut microbiome's role in the effect of urban risk factors on vascular ageing.

In the face of rising global urbanisation, understanding how the associated environment and lifestyle impact public health is a cornerstone for prevention, research, and clinical practice. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with urban risk factors contributing greatly to its burden. The current narrative review adopts an exposome approach to explore the effect of urban-associated physical-chemical factors (such as air pollution) and lifestyle on cardiovascular health and ageing. In addition, we provide new insights into how these urban-related factors alter the gut microbiome, which has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We focus on vascular ageing, before disease onset, to promote preventative research and practice. We also discuss how urban ecosystems and social factors may interact with these pathways and provide suggestions for future research, precision prevention and management of vascular ageing. Most importantly, future research and decision-making would benefit from adopting an exposome approach and acknowledging the diverse and boundless universe of the microbiome.

Post-traumatic stress disorder as a risk factor for major adverse cardiovascular events: a cohort study of a South African medical insurance scheme.

AIMS: Prior research, largely focused on US male veterans, indicates an increased risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Data from other settings and populations are scarce. The objective of this study is to examine PTSD as a risk factor for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in South Africa. METHODS: We analysed reimbursement claims (2011-2020) of a cohort of South African medical insurance scheme beneficiaries aged 18 years or older. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for associations between PTSD and MACEs using Cox proportional hazard models and calculated the effect of PTSD on MACEs using longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We followed 1,009,113 beneficiaries over a median of 3.0 years (IQR 1.1-6.0). During follow-up, 12,662 (1.3%) persons were diagnosed with PTSD and 39,255 (3.9%) had a MACE. After adjustment for sex, HIV status, age, population group, substance use disorders, psychotic disorders, major depressive disorder, sleep disorders and the use of antipsychotic medication, PTSD was associated with a 16% increase in the risk of MACEs (aHR 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.28). The risk ratio for the effect of PTSD on MACEs decreased from 1.59 (95% CI 1.49-1.68) after 1 year of follow-up to 1.14 (95% CI 1.11-1.16) after 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Our study provides empirical support for an increased risk of MACEs in males and females with PTSD from a general population sample in South Africa. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring cardiovascular risk among individuals diagnosed with PTSD.

Sex differences in blood pressure phenotypes over time - the HELIUS study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be classified into different phenotypes according to systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). In younger adults, these phenotypical differences have different prognostic value for men and women. However, little is known about sex differences in the natural course of different BP phenotypes over time. METHODS: We used baseline and follow-up data from the multiethnic, population-based HELIUS study to assess differences in BP phenotypes over time in men and women aged < 45 years stratified according to baseline office BP into normotension (<140/<90 mmHg), isolated systolic hypertension (ISH, ≥140/<90 mmHg), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH, <140/≥90 mmHg) or systolic diastolic hypertension (SDH, ≥140/≥90 mmHg). Logistic regression adjusted for age, ethnicity, and follow-up time was used to assess the risk of hypertension at follow-up (BP ≥140/90 mmHg or use of antihypertensive medication), stratified by sex. RESULTS: We included 4103 participants [mean age 33.5 years (SD 7.4), 43.4% men] with a median follow-up time of 6.2 years. Compared to normotensive individuals, the age-adjusted odds ratios (OR) for having hypertension at follow-up were 4.78 (95% CI 2.90; 7.76) for ISH, 6.02 (95% CI 3.70; 9.74) for IDH and 33.73 (95% CI 20.35; 58.38) for SDH in men, while in women, OR were 10.08 (95% CI 4.09; 25.56) for ISH, 27.59 (95% CI 14.68; 53.82) for IDH and 50.58 (95% CI 24.78; 114.84) for SDH. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of hypertension at follow-up was higher among women for all phenotypes compared to men, particularly in those with IDH. Findings of this study emphasize the importance of close BP monitoring in the young, especially in women.

Food Insecurity and Premature Mortality and Life Expectancy in the US.

Importance: Food insecurity has been linked to multiple causes of disease and premature mortality; however, its association with mortality by sex and across racial and ethnic groups remains unknown in the US. Objective: To investigate the associations of the entire range of food security with all-cause premature mortality and life expectancy across racial and ethnic and sex groups in US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adults (aged ≥18 years) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2018, with linkage to the National Death Index through December 31, 2019. Data analysis was performed from August to November 2023. Exposures: Levels of food security were assessed with the US Department of Agriculture Adult Food Security Survey Module (full, marginal, low, and very low). Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause premature mortality (death that occurs before age 80 years) and life expectancy. Results: The study included 57 404 adults (weighted mean [SE] age, 46.0 [0.19] years; 51.8% female; 12 281 Black individuals [21.4%]; 10 421 Mexican individuals [18.2%]; 4627 Other Hispanic individuals [8.1%]; 24 817 White individuals [43.2%]; and 5258 individuals of other races, including multiracial [9.2%]). During a median (IQR) of 9.3 (5.0-14.3) years of follow-up, 4263 premature deaths were documented. Compared with the full food security group, the adjusted hazard ratios were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.31-1.71), 1.44 (95% CI, 1.24-1.68), and 1.81 (95% CI, 1.56-2.10) across marginal, low, and very low food security groups, respectively (P < .001 for trend). The corresponding life expectancy at age 50 years in each group was 32.5 (95% CI, 32.4-32.6), 29.9 (95% CI, 28.9-30.9), 30.0 (95% CI, 28.9-31.0), and 28.0 (95% CI, 26.8-29.2) years. Equivalently, adults with marginal, low, or very low food security lived on average 2.6 (95% CI, 1.5-3.7), 2.5 (95% CI, 1.4-3.7), or 4.5 (95% CI, 3.2-5.8) fewer years at age 50 years, respectively, compared with those with full food security. The associations appeared to be stronger in women than in men (hazard ratios comparing very low food security with full food security, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.83-2.86] in women and 1.46 [95% CI, 1.19-1.78] in men; P = .009 for interaction) and stronger in White adults than in Black adults (hazard ratios comparing very low food security with full food security, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.70-2.53] in White adults and 1.33 [95% CI, 1.01-1.75] in Black adults; P < .001 for interaction) or in Hispanic adults (hazard ratios comparing very low food security with full food security, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.71-1.58]; P < .001 for interaction). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, although the association of food security and life expectancy varied across sex and racial and ethnic groups, overall, lower levels of food security were associated with a higher risk of premature mortality and a shorter life expectancy. The findings of this study highlight the potential importance of improving food security in promoting population health and health equity.

Involving older people in the preparedness, response, and recovery phases in humanitarian emergencies: a theoretical framework on ageism, epistemic injustice, and participation.

Humanitarian emergencies disproportionally affect older people. Although defining an older person by an age range can help alert us to emerging or changing needs and potential vulnerabilities during humanitarian emergencies, ageing is not necessarily synonymous with increasing vulnerability, and individual variations exist due to the heterogeneity of older people. In general, reduced access to safety, health services, clean water, and appropriate food puts older people at increased risk of poor health outcomes during humanitarian emergencies, including disability, injury, malnutrition, and mental health issues. The theoretical framework presented in this Personal View explains how ageism, further compounded by intersecting oppression, leads to the exclusion of older people from the preparedness, response, and recovery phases of humanitarian emergencies. The exclusion of older people is discriminatory, violates core humanitarian and bioethical principles, and leads to an epistemic injustice. We suggest that humanitarian actors implement participatory approaches with older people in humanitarian contexts. Through these approaches, solutions will be identified by and together with older people, leading to community-driven and context-appropriate ways to include the needs and strengths of older people in the preparedness, response, and recovery phases of humanitarian emergencies.

Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The interaction between modelers and policymakers is becoming more common due to the increase in computing speed seen in recent decades. The recent pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was no exception. Thus, this study aims to identify and assess epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data, including immunization for coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). METHODOLOGY: PubMed, JSTOR, medRxiv, LILACS, EconLit, and other databases were searched for studies employing epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data. We summarized the information qualitatively, and each article included was assessed for bias risk using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and PROBAST checklist tool. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022344542. FINDINGS: In total, 5646 articles were retrieved, of which 411 were included. Most of the information was published in 2021. The countries with the highest number of studies were the United States, Canada, China, and the United Kingdom; no studies were found in low-income countries. The SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) was the most frequently used approach, followed by agent-based modeling. Moreover, the most commonly used software were R, Matlab, and Python, with the most recurring health outcomes being death and recovery. According to the JBI assessment, 61.4% of articles were considered to have a low risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: The utilization of mathematical models increased following the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Stakeholders have begun to incorporate these analytical tools more extensively into public policy, enabling the construction of various scenarios for public health. This contribution adds value to informed decision-making. Therefore, understanding their advancements, strengths, and limitations is essential.

Ethnic Differences in Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Plaque Presence - The HELIUS study.

Introduction In the Netherlands, the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is higher among South-Asian Surinamese and lower among Moroccans compared to the Dutch. Traditional risk factors for atherosclerotic CVD do not fully explain these disparities. We aim to assess ethnic differences in plaque presence and intima media thickness (cIMT) and explore to which extent these differences are explained by traditional risk factors. Methods We used cross-sectional data from a subgroup of participants enrolled in the multi-ethnic population-based HEalthy Life In an Urban Setting (HELIUS) study who underwent carotid ultrasonography. Logistic and linear regression models were built to assess ethnic differences in plaque presence and cIMT with the Dutch population as reference. Additional models were created to adjust for socioeconomic status, body height and cardiovascular risk factors. Results Of the 3022 participants, 1183, 1051 and 790 individuals were of Dutch, South-Asian Surinamese and Moroccan descent. Mean age was 60.9 years (SD 8.0), 52.8% was female. Compared to the Dutch, we found lower odds for plaque presence in Moroccans (0.77, 95% CI 0.62; 0.95) and no significant differences between the South-Asian Surinamese and Dutch population (0.91, 95% CI 0.76; 1.10). After adjustment for CVD risk factors, we found a lower plaque presence in South-Asian Surinamese (0.63, 95% CI 0.48; 0.82). In both Moroccan and South-Asian Surinamese individuals, adjustment for socioeconomic status did not materially change the results. cIMT was lower in South-Asian Surinamese compared to the Dutch (-17.9 µm, 95% CI -27.9; -7.9) and partly explained by ethnic differences in body height as South-Asian Surinamese individuals were, on average, shorter than the Dutch population. No differences in cIMT between Moroccans and Dutch were found. Conclusions cIMT and plaque prevalence differ between ethnic groups independent of CVD risk. Lower plaque prevalence in Moroccans was partly attributable to a lower prevalence of traditional CVD risk factors, while body height was an important contributor to differences in cIMT in South-Asians. This study emphasizes the need for ethnic-specific cut-off values for plaque presence and cIMT.

Association between Total Dietary Phytochemical Intake and Cardiometabolic Health Outcomes-Results from a 10-Year Follow-Up on a Middle-Aged Cohort Population.

Dietary phytochemical intake associations with cardiovascular health and mortality remain unknown. We studied the relations between total dietary phytochemical intake and cardiovascular health outcomes in a middle-aged Swiss population. We analyzed data spanning 2009 to 2021 from a prospective cohort study in Lausanne, Switzerland, including 3721 participants (54.8% women, 57.2 ± 10.3 years) without cardiovascular disease (CVD) history. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated self-reported food frequency questionnaire. The Dietary Phytochemical Index (DPI) and the healthy Dietary Phytochemical Index (hDPI) were calculated as the total energy intake percentage obtained from phytochemical-rich food consumption. The Healthy Plant-Based Diet Index (hPBD) was estimated by scoring healthy plant foods positively and less-healthy plant foods negatively. Indices tertiles and cardiometabolic outcome associations were determined using Cox proportional hazard models. Over 30,217 person-years of follow-up, 262 CVD events, and 178 deaths occurred. Unadjusted analyses found 36%, 33%, and 32% lower CVD risk for the highest hDPI, DPI, and hPBD tertiles, respectively. After adjustment, only the second hDPI tertile showed a 30% lower CVD risk (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.95; P for trend 0.362). No other associations emerged. In this middle-aged Swiss cohort, no associations between dietary indices reflecting a phytochemical-rich dietary pattern and incident CVD, all-cause, or CVD mortality were observed.

Analysis of perceptions and emotional repercussions in Twitter users in Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted mental health. Up to a quarter of the population has reported mental health disorders. This has been studied mainly from a nosological perspective, according to diagnostic criteria. Nevertheless, we did not find studies that have explored the daily expressions of the population. Our objective was to evaluate the perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions on the emotional well-being of the Colombian population. METHODS: We performed a Twitter metrics and trend analysis. Initially, in the trend analysis, we calculated the average duration in hours of the 20 most popular trending topics of the day in Colombia and we grouped them into trends related to COVID-19 and unrelated trends. Subsequently, we identified dates of events associated with the pandemic relevant to the country, and they were related to the behaviour of the trends studied. Additionally, we did an exploratory analysis of these, selected the tweets with the greatest reach and categorised them in an inductive way to analyse them qualitatively. RESULTS: Issues not related to COVID-19 were more far-reaching than those related to coronavirus. However, a rise in these issues was seen on some dates consistent with important events in Colombia. We found expressions of approval and disapproval, solidarity and accusation. Inductively, we identified categories of informative tweets, humour, fear, stigma and discrimination, politics and entities, citizen complaints, and self-care and optimism. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic generates different reactions in the population, which increasingly have more tools to express themselves and know the opinions of others. Social networks play a fundamental role in the communication of the population, so this content could serve as a public health surveillance tool and a useful and accessible means of communication in the management of health crises.