TDFCAM: A method for estimating stable isotope trophic discrimination in wild populations.

Stable isotope mixing models (SIMMs) are widely used for characterizing wild animal diets. Such models rely upon using accurate trophic discrimination factors (TDFs) to account for the digestion, incorporation, and assimilation of food. Existing methods to calculate TDFs rely on controlled feeding trials that are time-consuming, often impractical for the study taxon, and may not reflect natural variability of TDFs present in wild populations.We present TDFCAM as an alternative approach to estimating TDFs in wild populations, by using high-precision diet estimates from a secondary methodological source-in this case nest cameras-in lieu of controlled feeding trials, and provide a framework for how and when it should be applied.In this study, we evaluate the TDFCAM approach in three datasets gathered on wild raptor nestlings (gyrfalcons Falco rusticolus; peregrine falcons Falco perigrinus; common buzzards Buteo buteo) comprising contemporaneous δ13C & δ15N stable isotope data and high-quality nest camera dietary data. We formulate Bayesian SIMMs (BSIMMs) incorporating TDFs from TDFCAM and analyze their agreement with nest camera data, comparing model performance with those based on other relevant TDFs. Additionally, we perform sensitivity analyses to characterize TDFCAM variability, and identify ecological and physiological factors contributing to that variability in wild populations.Across species and tissue types, BSIMMs incorporating a TDFCAM outperformed any other TDF tested, producing reliable population-level estimates of diet composition. We demonstrate that applying this approach even with a relatively low sample size (n < 10 individuals) produced more accurate estimates of trophic discrimination than a controlled feeding study conducted on the same species. Between-individual variability in TDFCAM estimates for ∆13C & ∆15 N increased with analytical imprecision in the source dietary data (nest cameras) but was also explained by natural variables in the study population (e.g., nestling nutritional/growth status and dietary composition).TDFCAM is an effective method of estimating trophic discrimination in wild animal populations. Here, we use nest cameras as source dietary data, but this approach is applicable to any high-accuracy method of measuring diet, so long as diet can be monitored over an interval contemporaneous with a tissue's isotopic turnover rate.

Author Correction: Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt.

Migratory species display a range of migration patterns between irruptive (facultative) to regular (obligate), as a response to different predictability of resources. In the Arctic, snow directly influences resource availability. The causes and consequences of different migration patterns of migratory species as a response to the snow conditions remains however unexplored. Birds migrating to the Arctic are expected to follow the spring snowmelt to optimise their arrival time and select for snow-free areas to maximise prey encounter en-route. Based on large-scale movement data, we compared the migration patterns of three top predator species of the tundra in relation to the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow cover. The snowy owl, an irruptive migrant, the rough-legged buzzard, with an intermediary migration pattern, and the peregrine falcon as a regular migrant, all followed, as expected, the spring snowmelt during their migrations. However, the owl stayed ahead, the buzzard stayed on, and the falcon stayed behind the spatio-temporal peak in snowmelt. Although none of the species avoided snow-covered areas, they presumably used snow presence as a cue to time their arrival at their breeding grounds. We show the importance of environmental cues for species with different migration patterns.

Correction to: Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations.

While collating contributions and comments from 36 researchers, the coordinating authors accidentally omitted Dr. Suzanne Carrière from the list of contributing co-authors. Dr. Carrière's data are described in Tables 1 and 3, Figure 2 and several places in the narrative.The new author list is thus updated in this article.

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic.

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44-54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.

Arctic terrestrial biodiversity status and trends: A synopsis of science supporting the CBMP State of Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report.

This review provides a synopsis of the main findings of individual papers in the special issue Terrestrial Biodiversity in a Rapidly Changing Arctic. The special issue was developed to inform the State of the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report developed by the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP) of the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), Arctic Council working group. Salient points about the status and trends of Arctic biodiversity and biodiversity monitoring are organized by taxonomic groups: (1) vegetation, (2) invertebrates, (3) mammals, and (4) birds. This is followed by a discussion about commonalities across the collection of papers, for example, that heterogeneity was a predominant pattern of change particularly when assessing global trends for Arctic terrestrial biodiversity. Finally, the need for a comprehensive, integrated, ecosystem-based monitoring program, coupled with targeted research projects deciphering causal patterns, is discussed.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.

Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations.

The peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) and the gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) are top avian predators of Arctic ecosystems. Although existing monitoring efforts are well established for both species, collaboration of activities among Arctic scientists actively involved in research of large falcons in the Nearctic and Palearctic has been poorly coordinated. Here we provide the first overview of Arctic falcon monitoring sites, present trends for long-term occupancy and productivity, and summarize information describing abundance, distribution, phenology, and health of the two species. We summarize data for 24 falcon monitoring sites across the Arctic, and identify gaps in coverage for eastern Russia, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada, and East Greenland. Our results indicate that peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations are generally stable, and assuming that these patterns hold beyond the temporal and spatial extents of the monitoring sites, it is reasonable to suggest that breeding populations at broader scales are similarly stable. We have highlighted several challenges that preclude direct comparisons of Focal Ecosystem Components (FEC) attributes among monitoring sites, and we acknowledge that methodological problems cannot be corrected retrospectively, but could be accounted for in future monitoring. Despite these drawbacks, ample opportunity exists to establish a coordinated monitoring program for Arctic-nesting raptor species that supports CBMP goals.

Correction to: Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided in this correction.

Precipitation and ectoparasitism reduce reproductive success in an arctic-nesting top-predator.

Indirect impacts of climate change, mediated by new species interactions (including pathogens or parasites) will likely be key drivers of biodiversity reorganization. In addition, direct effects of extreme weather events remain understudied. Simultaneous investigation of the significance of ectoparasites on host populations and extreme weather events is lacking, especially in the Arctic. Here we document the consequences of recent black fly outbreaks and extreme precipitation events on the reproductive output of an arctic top predator, the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus tundrius) nesting at the northern range limit of ornithophilic black flies in Nunavut, Canada. Overall, black fly outbreaks and heavy rain reduced annual nestling survival by up to 30% and 50% respectively. High mortality caused by ectoparasites followed record-breaking spring snow precipitation, which likely increased stream discharge and nutrient runoff, two key parameters involved in growth and survival of black fly larvae. Using the RCP4.5 intermediate climate scenario run under the Canadian Global Climate Model, we anticipate a northward expansion of black fly distribution in Arctic regions. Our case study demonstrates that, in the context of climate change, extreme weather events can have substantial direct and indirect effects on reproductive output of an arctic top-predator population.

Linking pre-laying energy allocation and timing of breeding in a migratory arctic raptor.

For migratory species, acquisition and allocation of energy after arrival on the breeding grounds largely determine reproductive decisions. Few studies have investigated underlying physiological mechanisms driving variation in breeding phenology so far. We linked physiological state to individual timing of breeding in pre-laying arctic-nesting female peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius). We captured females from two populations 2-20 days before egg-laying to assess plasma concentration of ß-hydroxybutyric acid (BUTY) and triglyceride (TRIG), two metabolites known to reflect short-term changes in fasting and fattening rate, respectively. We also assessed baseline corticosterone (CORTb), a hormone that mediates energy allocation, and the scaled mass index (SMI) as an indicator of somatic body reserves. Plasma BUTY was slightly higher during the pre-recruiting period compared to the period of rapid follicular growth, indicating a reduction in catabolism of lipid reserves before investment in follicle development. Conversely, TRIG levels increased in pre-recruiting females, and best-predicted individual variation in pre-laying interval and lay date. A marked increase in CORTb occurred concomitantly with the onset of rapid follicle growth. SMI was highly variable possibly reflecting variation in food availability or individuals at different stages. Results suggest that (1) lower rates of pre-laying fattening and/or lower mobilization rate of lipoproteins to ovarian follicles delayed laying, and (2) an elevation in pre-laying CORTb may result from, or be required to compensate for, the energetic costs of egg production. Results of this study illustrate how variation in the allocation of energy before laying can influence individual fitness-related reproductive decisions.

The influence of weather and lemmings on spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in the arctic.

Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010-2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance, and spatiotemporal variations in Arctic-breeding birds.

Heavy rainfall increases nestling mortality of an Arctic top predator: experimental evidence and long-term trend in peregrine falcons.

Although animal population dynamics have often been correlated with fluctuations in precipitation, causal relationships have rarely been demonstrated in wild birds. We combined nest observations with a field experiment to investigate the direct effect of rainfall on survival of peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) nestlings in the Canadian Arctic. We then used historical data to evaluate if recent changes in the precipitation regime could explain the long-term decline of falcon annual productivity. Rainfall directly caused more than one-third of the recorded nestling mortalities. Juveniles were especially affected by heavy rainstorms (≥8 mm/day). Nestlings sheltered from rainfall by a nest box had significantly higher survival rates. We found that the increase in the frequency of heavy rain over the last three decades is likely an important factor explaining the recent decline in falcon nestling survival rates, and hence the decrease in annual breeding productivity of the population. Our study is among the first experimental demonstrations of the direct link between rainfall and survival in wild birds, and clearly indicates that top arctic predators can be significantly impacted by changes in precipitation regime.

Landscape heterogeneity drives intra-population niche variation and reproduction in an arctic top predator.

While intra-population variability in resource use is ubiquitous, little is known of how this measure of niche diversity varies in space and its role in population dynamics. Here we examined how heterogeneous breeding environments can structure intra-population niche variation in both resource use and reproductive output. We investigated intra-population niche variation in the Arctic tundra ecosystem, studying peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus tundrius, White) breeding within a terrestrial-marine gradient near Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada. Using stable isotope analysis, we found that intra-population niches varied at the individual level; we examined within-nest and among-nest variation, though only the latter varied along the terrestrial-marine gradient (i.e., increased among-nest variability among birds nesting within the marine environment, indicating higher degree of specialization). Terrestrial prey species (small herbivores and insectivores) were consumed by virtually all falcons. Falcons nesting within the marine environment made use of marine prey (sea birds), but depended heavily on terrestrial prey (up to 90% of the diet). Using 28-years of peregrine falcon nesting data, we found a positive relationship between the proportion of terrestrial habitat surrounding nest sites and annual nestling production, but no relationship with the likelihood of successfully rearing at least one nestling reaching 25 days old. Annually, successful inland breeders raised 0.47 more young on average compared to offshore breeders, which yields potential fitness consequences for this long-living species. The analyses of niche and reproductive success suggest a potential breeding cost for accessing distant terrestrial prey, perhaps due to additional traveling costs, for those individuals with marine nest site locations. Our study indicates how landscape heterogeneity can generate proximate (niche variation) and ultimate (reproduction) consequences on a population of generalist predator. We also show that within-individual and among-individual variation are not mutually exclusive, but can simultaneously arise and structure intra-population niche variation.