Variations in biophysical characteristics of mangroves along retreating and advancing shorelines.

Mangrove shoreline retreat or advance is a natural process in a mangrove delta. However, due to various natural and anthropogenic stressors, mangrove shoreline retreat is the second largest cause of mangrove loss globally. It is important to understand the scale at which mangrove shoreline changes are causing biophysical changes along the mangrove shorelines and, in turn, understand if certain biophysical characteristics can explain the changes along the shoreline. This will help identify the response of mangroves to shoreline changes. Videography and spatial mapping were used to study temporarily and permanently changing mangrove shorelines in the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the world (~10,000 km2), located in India and Bangladesh. Data was collected along a ~ 239 km shoreline at 54 sites. 36.4 % of all the studied shorelines were experiencing major retreat, 63.8 % and 27.2 % of all (major and minor) retreating areas had 1-25 % and > 25 % dead trees. The biophysical characteristics statistically (P < 0.0001) associated with retreating mangrove shorelines were - cliff-type shoreline profiles, number of dead trees, and absence of stream and grass, with shoreline profiles as the strongest predictor of shoreline retreat. Moreover, 68.7 % and 73 % of historically retreating shorelines had a cliff-type shoreline profile and Excoecaria agallocha as the dominating species, respectively. Moreover, due to the strong correlation between historical changes and current shoreline types, it was concluded that characteristics along the shoreline are partly a product of historical shoreline transitions. Thus, the present status of the shoreline can not only predict the history of the shoreline but can also give insights into the future biophysical changes in the mangrove forests.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions.

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Stronger increases but greater variability in global mangrove productivity compared to that of adjacent terrestrial forests.

Mangrove forests are a highly productive ecosystem with important potential to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Mangroves are expected to respond differently to climate change compared to terrestrial forests owing to their location in the tidal environment and unique ecophysiological characteristics, but the magnitude of difference remains uncertain at the global scale. Here we use satellite observations to examine mean trends and interannual variability in the productivity of global mangrove forests and nearby terrestrial evergreen broadleaf forests from 2001 to 2020. Although both types of ecosystem experienced significant recent increases in productivity, mangroves exhibited a stronger increasing trend and greater interannual variability in productivity than evergreen broadleaf forests on three-quarters of their co-occurring coasts. The difference in productivity trends is attributed to the stronger CO2 fertilization effect on mangrove photosynthesis, while the discrepancy in interannual variability is attributed to the higher sensitivities to variations in precipitation and sea level. Our results indicate that mangroves will have a faster increase in productivity than terrestrial forests in a CO2-rich future but may suffer more from deficits in water availability, highlighting a key difference between terrestrial and tidal ecosystems in their responses to climate change.

Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets.

Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust.

Blue carbon assessments of seagrass and mangrove ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia: Current progress and knowledge gaps.

Coastal blue carbon ecosystems can be an important nature-based solution for mitigating climate change, when emphasis is given to their protection, management, and restoration. Globally, there has been a rapid increase in blue carbon research in the last few decades, with substantial investments on national scales by the European Union, the USA, Australia, Seychelles, and Belize. Blue carbon ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia are globally diverse, highly productive and could represent a global hotspot for carbon sequestration and storage. To guide future efforts, we conducted a systematic review of the available literature on two primary blue carbon ecosystems-seagrasses and mangroves-across 13 countries in South and Southeast Asia to assess existing national inventories, review current research trends and methodologies, and identify existing knowledge gaps. Information related to various aspects of seagrass and mangrove ecosystems was extracted from 432 research articles from 1967 to 2022. We find that: (1) blue carbon estimates in several countries have limited data, especially for seagrass meadows compared to mangrove ecosystems, although the highest reported carbon stocks were in Indonesia and the Philippines with 4,515 and 707 Tg within mangrove forest and 60.9 and 63.3 Tg within seagrass meadows, respectively; (2) there is a high difference in the quantity and quality of data between mangrove and seagrass ecosystems, and the methodologies used for blue carbon estimates are highly variable across countries; and (3) most studies on blue carbon stocks are spatially biased towards more familiar study areas of individual countries, than several lesser-known suspected blue carbon hotspots. In sum, our review demonstrates the paucity and variability in current research in the region, and highlights research frontiers that should be addressed by future research before the robust implementation of these ecosystems into national climate strategies.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

Salinity reduces site quality and mangrove forest functions. From monitoring to understanding.

Mangroves continue to be threatened across their range by a mix of anthropogenic and climate change-related stress. Climate change-induced salinity is likely to alter the structure and functions of highly productive mangrove systems. However, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how rising salinity affects forest structure and functions because of the limited availability of mangrove field data. Therefore, based on extensive spatiotemporal mangrove data covering a large-scale salinity gradient, collected from the world's largest single tract mangrove ecosystem - the Bangladesh Sundarbans, we, aimed to examine (QI) how rising salinity influences forest structure (e.g., stand density, diversity, leaf area index (LAI), etc.), functions (e.g., carbon stocks, forest growth), nutrients availability, and functional traits (e.g., specific leaf area, wood density). We also wanted to know (QII) how forest functions interact (direct vs. indirect) with biotic (i.e., stand structure, species richness, etc.) and abiotic factors (salinity, nutrients, light availability, etc.). We also asked (QIII) whether the functional variable decreases disproportionately with salinity and applied the power-law (i.e., Y = a Xb) to the salinity and functional variable relationships. In this study, we found that rises in salinity significantly impede forest growth and produce less productive ecosystems dominated by dwarf species while reducing stand structural properties (i.e., tree height, basal area, dominant tree height, LAI), soil carbon (organic and root carbon), and macronutrient availability in the soil (e.g., NH4+, P, and K). Besides, species-specific leaf area (related to resource acquisition) also decreased with salinity, whereas wood density (related to resource conservation) increased. We observed a declining abundance of the salt-intolerant climax species (Heritiera fomes) and dominance of the salt-tolerant species (Excoecaria agallocha, Ceriops decandra) in the high saline areas. In the case of biotic and abiotic factors, salinity and salinity-driven gap fraction (high transmission of light) had a strong negative impact on functional variables, while nutrients and LAI had a positive impact. In addition, the power-law explained the consistent decline of functional variables with salinity. Our study disentangles the negative effects of salinity on site quality in the Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, and we recognize that nutrient availability and LAI are likely to buffer the less salt-tolerant species to maintain the ability to sequester carbon with sea-level rise. These novel findings advance our understanding of how a single stressor-salinity-can shape mangrove structure, functions, and productivity and offer decision makers a much-needed scientific basis for developing pragmatic ecosystem management and conservation plans in highly stressed coastal ecosystems across the globe.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Integrating blue: How do we make nationally determined contributions work for both blue carbon and local coastal communities?

Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) help mitigate and adapt to climate change but their integration into policy, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), remains underdeveloped. Most BCE conservation requires community engagement, hence community-scale projects must be nested within the implementation of NDCs without compromising livelihoods or social justice. Thirty-three experts, drawn from academia, project development and policy, each developed ten key questions for consideration on how to achieve this. These questions were distilled into ten themes, ranked in order of importance, giving three broad categories of people, policy & finance, and science & technology. Critical considerations for success include the need for genuine participation by communities, inclusive project governance, integration of local work into national policies and practices, sustaining livelihoods and income (for example through the voluntary carbon market and/or national Payment for Ecosystem Services and other types of financial compensation schemes) and simplification of carbon accounting and verification methodologies to lower barriers to entry.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,3 but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

A meta-analysis of the ecological and economic outcomes of mangrove restoration.

Mangrove restoration has become a popular strategy to ensure the critical functions and economic benefits of this ecosystem. This study conducts a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature on the outcomes of mangrove restoration. On aggregate, restored mangroves provide higher ecosystem functions than unvegetated tidal flats but lower than natural mangrove stands (respectively RR' = 0.43, 95%CIs = 0.23 to 0.63; RR' = -0.21, 95%CIs = -0.34 to -0.08), while they perform on par with naturally-regenerated mangroves and degraded mangroves. However, restoration outcomes vary widely between functions and comparative bases, and are mediated by factors such as restoration age, species, and restoration method. Furthermore, mangrove restoration offers positive benefit-cost ratios ranging from 10.50 to 6.83 under variable discount rates (-2% to 8%), suggesting that mangrove restoration is a cost-effective form of ecosystem management. Overall, the results suggest that mangrove restoration has substantial potential to contribute to multiple policy objectives related to biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Global potential and limits of mangrove blue carbon for climate change mitigation.

Despite the outsized role of mangrove forests in sustaining biodiversity, ecosystem function, and local livelihoods, the protection of these vital habitats through blue carbon financing has been limited.1,2 Here, we quantify the extent of this missed conservation and financial opportunity, showing that the protection of ∼20% of the world's mangrove forests (2.6 Mha) can be funded through carbon financing. Of these investible areas, 1.1-1.3 Mha can be financially sustainable over a 30-year time frame based on carbon prices of US$5-9.4 t-1CO2e. This contributes up to 29.8 MtCO2e year-1 and yields a return on investment of ∼US$3.7 billion per year. Our results point toward a disproportionately large potential of blue carbon finance that can be leveraged to meet national-level climate mitigation goals, particularly if combined with other conservation interventions that further safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity in these irreplaceable forests. Robust information on return on investment highlights the potential for currently underutilized tropical coastal carbon credit projects.

Respective contribution of urban wastewater and mangroves on nutrient dynamics in a tropical estuary during the monsoon season.

Estuaries of Southeast Asia are increasingly impacted by land-cover changes and pollution. Here, our research objectives were to (1) determine the origins of nutrient loads along the Can Gio estuary (Vietnam) and (2) identify the processes that affect the nutrient pools during the monsoon. We constructed four 24-h time-series along the salinity gradient measuring nutrient concentrations and stable isotopes values. In the upper estuary, urban effluents from Ho Chi Minh City were the main input of nutrients, leading to dissolved oxygen saturation <20%. In the lower estuary, ammonium and nitrite concentration peaks were explained by mangrove export. No contribution from aquaculture was detected, as it represents <0.01% of the total river discharge. Along the salinity gradient, nutrient inputs were rapidly consumed, potentially by phytoplankton while nitrate dual-stable isotopes indicated that nitrification occurred. Thus, even in a large and productive estuary, urban wastewater can affect nutrient dynamics with potentially important ecological risks.

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation.

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km2) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km2) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km2) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km2). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (- 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Climate change mitigation potential of wetlands and the cost-effectiveness of their restoration.

The cost-effective mitigation of climate change through nature-based carbon dioxide removal strategies has gained substantial policy attention. Inland and coastal wetlands (specifically boreal, temperate and tropical peatlands; tundra; floodplains; freshwater marshes; saltmarshes; and mangroves) are among the most efficient natural long-term carbon sinks. Yet, they also release methane (CH4) that can offset the carbon they sequester. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis on wetland carbon dynamics to (i) determine their impact on climate using different metrics and time horizons, (ii) investigate the cost-effectiveness of wetland restoration for climate change mitigation, and (iii) discuss their suitability for inclusion in climate policy as negative emission technologies. Depending on metrics, a wetland can simultaneously be a net carbon sink (i.e. boreal and temperate peatlands net ecosystem carbon budget = -28.1 ± 19.13 gC m-2 y-1) but have a net warming effect on climate at the 100 years time-scale (i.e. boreal and temperate peatland sustained global warming potential = 298.2 ± 100.6 gCO2 eq-1 m-2 y-1). This situation creates ambivalence regarding the effect of wetlands on global temperature. Moreover, our review reveals high heterogeneity among the (limited number of) studies that document wetland carbon budgets. We demonstrate that most coastal and inland wetlands have a net cooling effect as of today. This is explained by the limited CH4 emissions that undisturbed coastal wetlands produce, and the long-term carbon sequestration performed by older inland wetlands as opposed to the short lifetime of CH4 in the atmosphere. Analysis of wetland restoration costs relative to the amount of carbon they can sequester revealed that restoration is more cost-effective in coastal wetlands such as mangroves (US$1800 ton C-1) compared with inland wetlands (US$4200-49 200 ton C-1). We advise that for inland wetlands, priority should be given to conservation rather than restoration; while for coastal wetlands, both conservation and restoration may be effective techniques for climate change mitigation.

Global trends in mangrove forest fragmentation.

Fragmentation is a major driver of ecosystem degradation, reducing the capacity of habitats to provide many important ecosystem services. Mangrove ecosystem services, such as erosion prevention, shoreline protection and mitigation of climate change (through carbon sequestration), depend on the size and arrangement of forest patches, but we know little about broad-scale patterns of mangrove forest fragmentation. Here we conduct a multi-scale analysis using global estimates of mangrove density and regional drivers of mangrove deforestation to map relationships between habitat loss and fragmentation. Mangrove fragmentation was ubiquitous; however, there are geographic disparities between mangrove loss and fragmentation; some regions, like Cambodia and the southern Caribbean, had relatively little loss, but their forests have been extensively fragmented. In Southeast Asia, a global hotspot of mangrove loss, the conversion of forests to aquaculture and rice plantations were the biggest drivers of loss (>50%) and fragmentation. Surprisingly, conversion of forests to oil palm plantations, responsible for >15% of all deforestation in Southeast Asia, was only weakly correlated with mangrove fragmentation. Thus, the management of different deforestation drivers may increase or decrease fragmentation. Our findings suggest that large scale monitoring of mangrove forests should also consider fragmentation. This work highlights that regional priorities for conservation based on forest loss rates can overlook fragmentation and associated loss of ecosystem functionality.

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land-use change.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25-years LULCC chronosequence. Field-based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC-affected mangroves (0-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 25-year-old post-harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15-year-old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182-2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha-1  year-1 . This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long-term land-use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land-based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land-use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes.