Stemming the flow: how much can the Australian smartphone app help to control COVID-19?

OBJECTIVES: Our objective is to assess the potential contribution of the Australian Government's mobile smartphone tracing app (COVIDSafe) to the sustained control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). STUDY TYPE: Development and analysis of a system dynamics model. METHODS: To define the pandemic context and specify model-building parameters, we searched for literature on COVID-19, its epidemiology in Australia, case finding processes, and factors that might affect community acceptance of the COVIDSafe smartphone app for contact tracing. We then developed a system dynamics model of COVID-19 based on a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered compartmental model structure, using initial pandemic data and published information on virus behaviour to determine parameter values. We applied the model to examine factors influencing the projected trends: the extent of viral testing, community participation in social distancing, and the level of uptake of the COVIDSafe app. RESULTS: Modelling suggests that a second COVID-19 wave will occur if social distancing declines (i.e. if the average number of contacts made by each individual each day increases) and the rate of testing declines. The timing and size of the second wave will depend on the rate of decrease in social distancing and the decline in testing rates. At the app uptake level of approximately 27% (current at 20 May 2020), with a monthly 50% reduction in social distancing (i.e. the average number of contacts per day doubling every 30 days until they reach pre-social distancing rates) and a 5% decline in testing, the app would reduce the projected total number of new cases during April-December 2020 by one-quarter. If uptake reaches the possible maximum of 61%, the reduction could be more than half. CONCLUSIONS: Maintenance of a large-scale testing regimen for COVID-19 and widespread community practice of social distancing are vital. The COVIDSafe smartphone app has the potential to be an important adjunct to testing and social distancing. Depending on the level of community uptake of the app, it could have a significant mitigating effect on a second wave of COVID-19 in Australia.

Medical graduates becoming rural doctors: rural background versus extended rural placement.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether recruitment of rural students and uptake of extended rural placements are associated with students' expressed intentions to undertake rural internships and students' acceptance of rural internships after finishing medical school, and to compare any associations. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Longitudinal study of three successive cohorts (commencing 2005, 2006, 2007) of medical students in the Sydney Medical Program (SMP), University of Sydney, New South Wales, using responses to self-administered questionnaires upon entry to and exit from the Sydney Medical School and data recorded in rolls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Students' expressed intentions to undertake rural internships, and their acceptance of rural internships after finishing medical school. RESULTS: Data from 448 students were included. The proportion of students preferring a rural career dropped from 20.7% (79/382) to 12.5% (54/433) between entry into and exit from the SMP. A total of 98 students took extended rural placements. Ultimately, 8.1% (35/434) accepted a rural internship, although 14.5% (60/415) had indicated a first preference for a rural post. Students who had undertaken an extended rural placement were more than three times as likely as those with rural backgrounds to express a first preference for a rural internship (23.9% v 7.7%; χ(2) = 7.04; P = 0.008) and more than twice as likely to accept a rural internship (21.3% v 9.9%; χ(2) = 3.85; P = 0.05). CONCLUSION: For the three cohorts studied, rural clinical training through extended placements in rural clinical schools had a stronger association than rural background with a preference for, and acceptance of, rural internship.

Opinions on the content and effects of the Caring for Australasians with Renal Impairment (CARI) Guidelines: a survey of renal nurses and comparison with the opinions of nephrologists in Australasia.

AIM: Renal nurses in Australia and New Zealand are critical to the care of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), especially those on dialysis. We aimed to obtain the opinions of renal nurses in Australia and New Zealand on the Caring for Australasians with Renal Impairment (CARI) Guidelines. METHODS: A self-administered survey was distributed to all members of the professional organisation for renal nurses (Renal Society of Australasia) in 2006. The results were compared with those from a similar survey in 2002 and an identical 2006 survey of Australian and New Zealand nephrologists. RESULTS: Of the 173 respondents, more than 95% considered the Guidelines to be a good synthesis of the available evidence, 80% indicated that the Guidelines had significantly influenced their practice and 86% considered that the Guidelines had improved patient outcomes. Older respondents were less likely to perceive that the Guidelines had improved patient outcomes, and renal nurse educators were more likely to consider that the Guidelines were based on the best available evidence than other respondents. Respondents were generally more positive about the Guidelines in 2006 than in 2002. Although nephrologists were generally positive about the CARI Guidelines, renal nurses were more positive, especially regarding the effect of the Guidelines on practice and the improvement in health outcomes. CONCLUSION: Australian and New Zealand renal nurses valued the CARI Guidelines highly, used them in practice and considered that they led to improved patient outcomes. Positive responses towards the Guidelines increased between 2002 and 2006.

Nephrologists' perspectives on the effect of guidelines on clinical practice: a semistructured interview study.

BACKGROUND: A consistent gap exists between evidence-based guideline recommendations and clinical practice across all medical disciplines, including nephrology. This study aims to explore nephrologists' perspectives on guidelines and elicit their perspectives on the effects of guidelines on clinical decisions. METHODS: Semistructured face-to-face interviews were undertaken with 19 nephrologists from a variety of clinical settings across Australia. Participants were asked about their views of clinical practice guidelines in nephrology, both local (Caring for Australasians With Renal Impairment [CARI]) and international, and their opinions of other factors that shape their decision making. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed qualitatively. RESULTS: 4 major themes were identified. First, overall, the nephrologists interviewed trusted the CARI guideline process and output. Second, guidelines served a variety of purposes, providing a good summary of evidence, a foundation for practice, an educational resource, and justification for funding requests to policy makers, as well as promoting patient adherence to treatment. Third, guidelines were only one input into decision making. Other inputs included individual patient quality of life and circumstances, opinion leaders, peers, nephrologists' own experiences, the regulation and subsidy framework for drugs and devices, policies and work practices of the local unit, and other sources of evidence. Fourth, guideline uptake varied. Factors that favored the use of guidelines included having a strong evidence base, being current, including specific targets and an explicit treatment algorithm, being sent frequent reminders, and having local peer support for implementation and the necessary personnel and other resources for effective implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based guidelines appear to impact strongly on clinical decision making of Australian nephrologists, but are only one input. Improvements in the evidence that underpins guidelines and improvements in the content and formatting of guidelines are likely to make them more influential on decision making. Trust in the guideline groups' processes is a prerequisite for implementation.

Opinions on the content and effects of clinical practice guidelines for CKD: a survey of nephrologists in Australia and New Zealand.

Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines have been a major development in nephrology internationally, but it is uncertain how the nephrology community regards these guidelines. This study aimed to determine the views of nephrologists on the content and effects of their local guidelines (Caring for Australasians with Renal Impairment [CARI]). In 2006, a self-administered survey was distributed to all Australian and New Zealand nephrologists. Seven questions were repeated from a similar survey in 2002. A total of 211 nephrologists (70% of practicing nephrologists) responded. More than 90% agreed that the CARI guidelines were a useful summary of evidence, and nearly 60% reported that the guidelines had significantly influenced their practice. The proportion of nephrologists reporting that the guidelines had improved patient outcomes increased from 14% in 2002 to 38% in 2006. The proportion of nephrologists indicating that the guidelines did not match the best available evidence decreased from 30% in 2002 to 8% in 2006. Older age and male sex showed some associations with a less favorable response for some domains. The CARI approach of rigorous evidence-based guidelines has been shown to be a successful model of guideline production. Almost all nephrologists regarded the CARI guidelines as useful evidence summaries, although only one-third believed that the guidelines affected health outcomes. Attitudes to the guidelines have become more favorable over time; this may reflect changes in the CARI process or attitudinal changes to evidence among nephrologists. Evaluation by the end user is fundamental to ensuring the applicability of guidelines in clinical practice in the future.

Surgical procedures for melanoma in public and private New South Wales hospitals, 2001-2002.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that there is considerable variation in the types of procedures used to treat cancer. This variation may result in suboptimal or cost-ineffective care. The present study examined the variation in surgical treatment of melanoma before the establishment of a Melanoma Network that could promote more uniform high-quality care in New South Wales (NSW). The variations in the use of surgical procedures for melanoma by NSW Area Health Service of patient residence were examined. METHODS: Data in the Health Information Exchange of NSW Health collected on procedures carried out on patients with a diagnosis of melanoma in NSW public and private hospitals from 1 July 2001 to 30 June 2002 were examined. Data were aggregated by Area Health Services of patient residence. These data were compared with the numbers of new cases of melanoma notified to the NSW Central Cancer Registry in the same areas in 2001-2002. Excision of skin lesions, skin grafting and numbers and types of lymph node procedures were examined. RESULTS: During the study period, the Central Cancer Registry reported that there were 3085 notifications of melanoma, whereas hospital inpatient data recorded that 6864 procedures were carried out for patients with a melanoma diagnosis in NSW public and private hospitals. Sixty-seven per cent of procedures were carried out in private hospitals. A total of 852 skin grafting procedures were recorded. Of these, 60% were carried out in private hospitals. The average proportion of skin grafts associated with excisions in NSW was 30% (range, 0-53%). Eight hundred and fifty-eight lymph node procedures were recorded for 747 NSW residents. These were biopsies, excisions or both. Forty per cent were carried out in private hospitals. The average proportion of new cases of melanoma associated with a lymph node procedure in NSW was 28% (range, 0-47%). CONCLUSION: Most of the inpatient procedures for patients with melanoma were carried out in private hospitals. The proportions of new cases that underwent skin grafting after excision, or underwent lymph node dissection, varied more than fivefold from one Area Health Service to another. This may indicate variations in casemix, variations in clinical practice or both.

Community pharmacy in Australia.

This article describes the evolution of community pharmacy in the Australian health system, and assesses its current and potential future contribution to health care. A central theme is the unique extent and accessibility of community pharmacy to the public, with a vast and dispersed infrastructure that is funded by private enterprise. The viability of community pharmacy as a retail trade depends on a diversification of its service roles and retention of its product-supply roles. Initiatives by the pharmacy profession, the pharmacy industry and the Australian Government are likely to give community pharmacy an increasingly prominent place in health promotion and primary, secondary and tertiary prevention, especially in relation to the management of chronic diseases.