Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance poses a major threat to effective malaria treatment and control. This study aims to inform policymakers and vaccine developers on the potential of an effective malaria vaccine in reducing drug-resistant infections. METHODS: A compartmental model estimating cases, drug-resistant cases, and deaths averted from 2021 to 2030 with a vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection administered yearly to 1-year-olds in 42 African countries. Three vaccine efficacy (VE) scenarios and one scenario of rapidly increasing drug resistance are modeled. RESULTS: When VE is constant at 40% for 4 years and then drops to 0%, 235.7 (Uncertainty Interval [UI] 187.8-305.9) cases per 1000 children, 0.6 (UI 0.4-1.0) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.6 (UI 0.5-0.9) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE begins at 80% and drops 20 percentage points each year, 313.9 (UI 249.8-406.6) cases per 1000, 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.3) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.2) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE remains 40% for 10 years, 384.7 (UI 311.7-496.5) cases per 1000, 1.0 (0.7-1.6) resistant cases per 1000, and 1.1 (UI 0.8-1.5) deaths per 1000 are averted. Assuming an effective vaccine and an increase in current levels of drug resistance to 80% by 2030, 10.4 (UI 7.3-15.8) resistant cases per 1000 children are averted. CONCLUSIONS: Widespread deployment of a malaria vaccine could substantially reduce health burden in Africa. Maintaining VE longer may be more impactful than a higher initial VE that falls rapidly.

Malaria can become resistant to the drugs used to treat it, posing a major threat to malaria treatment and control. An effective vaccine has the potential to reduce both resistant infections and antimalarial drug use. However, how successfully a vaccine can protect against infection (vaccine efficacy) and the impact of increasing drug resistance remain unclear. Using a mathematical model, we estimate the impact of malaria vaccination in 42 African countries over a 10-year period in multiple scenarios with differing vaccine efficacy and drug resistance. Our model suggests that a moderately effective vaccine with sustained protection over a long period could avert more resistant infections and deaths than a vaccine that is highly protective initially but lowers in efficacy over time. Nevertheless, implementation of an effective malaria vaccine should be accelerated to mitigate the health and economic burden of drug resistance.

Global and regional burden of attributable and associated bacterial antimicrobial resistance avertable by vaccination: modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health threat with 1.27 million and 4.95 million deaths attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR, respectively, in 2019. Our aim is to estimate the vaccine avertable bacterial AMR burden based on existing and future vaccines at the regional and global levels by pathogen and infectious syndromes. METHODS: We developed a static proportional impact model to estimate the vaccination impact on 15 bacterial pathogens in terms of reduction in age-specific AMR burden estimates for 2019 from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance project in direct proportion to efficacy, coverage, target population for protection, and duration of protection of existing and future vaccines. RESULTS: The AMR burden avertable by vaccination in 2019 was highest for the WHO Africa and South-East Asia regions, for lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and bloodstream infections by infectious syndromes, and for Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Streptococcus pneumoniae by pathogen. In the baseline scenario for vaccination of primary age groups against 15 pathogens, we estimated vaccine-avertable AMR burden of 0.51 (95% UI 0.49-0.54) million deaths and 28 (27-29) million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with bacterial AMR, and 0.15 (0.14-0.17) million deaths and 7.6 (7.1-8.0) million DALYs attributable to AMR globally in 2019. In the high-potential scenario for vaccination of additional age groups against seven pathogens, we estimated vaccine-avertable AMR burden of an additional 1.2 (1.18-1.23) million deaths and 37 (36-39) million DALYs associated with AMR, and 0.33 (0.32-0.34) million deaths and 10 (9.8-11) million DALYs attributable to AMR globally in 2019. CONCLUSION: Increased coverage of existing vaccines and development of new vaccines are effective means to reduce AMR, and this evidence should inform the full value of vaccine assessments.

The role of bacterial vaccines in the fight against antimicrobial resistance: an analysis of the preclinical and clinical development pipeline.

Vaccines can be highly effective tools in combating antimicrobial resistance as they reduce infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic consumption associated with disease. This Review looks at vaccine candidates that are in development against pathogens on the 2017 WHO bacterial priority pathogen list, in addition to Clostridioides difficile and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. There were 94 active preclinical vaccine candidates and 61 active development vaccine candidates. We classified the included pathogens into the following four groups: Group A consists of pathogens for which vaccines already exist-ie, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and M tuberculosis. Group B consists of pathogens with vaccines in advanced clinical development-ie, extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli, Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi A, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and C difficile. Group C consists of pathogens with vaccines in early phases of clinical development-ie, enterotoxigenic E coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, non-typhoidal Salmonella, Shigella spp, and Campylobacter spp. Finally, group D includes pathogens with either no candidates in clinical development or low development feasibility-ie, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, Staphylococcus aureus, Helicobacter pylori, Enterococcus faecium, and Enterobacter spp. Vaccines are already important tools in reducing antimicrobial resistance and future development will provide further opportunities to optimise the use of vaccines against resistance.

The approach of World Health Organization to articulate the role and assure impact of vaccines against antimicrobial resistance.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global problem and there were an estimated 4.95 million deaths associated with bacterial AMR worldwide in 2019. Vaccines can impact AMR by preventing infections and reducing the need for antibiotics which will inadvertently slow the emergence of AMR. Effective infection prevention and control (IPC) has been identified as the cornerstone action to combat AMR by the World Health Assembly and the Global Action plan on AMR. Similarly, the Immunization Agenda 2030 highlights vaccines as critical tools to combat AMR. This article summarizes the strategy of the World Health Organization to understand, articulate and communicate the important role of vaccines in countering AMR. The work is organized around developing a strategy, understanding the pipeline of vaccines in development, articulating the value of vaccines against AMR, and assuring sustainable impact of vaccines at a country level to combat AMR.

Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug resistance and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) are major concerns for the epidemiology and treatment of typhoid fever. The 2018 prequalification of the first typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) by WHO provides an opportunity to limit the transmission and burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. METHODS: We combined output from mathematical models of typhoid transmission with estimates of antimicrobial resistance from meta-analyses to predict the burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever across 73 lower-income countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We considered FQNS and multidrug resistance separately. The effect of vaccination was predicted on the basis of forecasts of vaccine coverage. We explored how the potential effect of vaccination on the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance varied depending on key model parameters. FINDINGS: The introduction of routine immunisation with TCV at age 9 months with a catch-up campaign up to age 15 years was predicted to avert 46-74% of all typhoid fever cases in 73 countries eligible for Gavi support. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the relative prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever by 16% (95% prediction interval [PI] 0-49). TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign was predicted to avert 42·5 million (95% PI 24·8-62·8 million) cases and 506 000 (95% PI 187 000-1·9 million) deaths caused by FQNS typhoid fever, and 21·2 million (95% PI 16·4-26·5 million) cases and 342 000 (95% PI 135 000-1·5 million) deaths from multidrug-resistant typhoid fever over 10 years following introduction. INTERPRETATION: Our results indicate the benefits of prioritising TCV introduction for countries with a high avertable burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of national antimicrobial treatment guidelines, African Union.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and compare antimicrobial treatment guidelines from African Union (AU) Member States. METHODS: We reviewed national government agency and public health institutes' websites and communicated with country or regional focal points to identify existing treatment guidelines from AU Member States. We included guidelines if they contained disease-, syndrome- or pathogen-specific treatment recommendations and if those recommendations included antimicrobial name or class, dosage and therapy duration. The scope of the review was limited to infections and clinical syndromes that often have a bacterial cause. We assessed treatment guidelines for alignment with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. We compared treatment recommendations for various common bacterial infections or clinical syndromes described across national guidelines and those described in three World Health Organization guidelines. FINDINGS: We identified 31 treatment guidelines from 20 of the 55 (36%) AU Member States; several countries had more than one treatment guideline that met our inclusion criteria. Fifteen (48%) guidelines from 10 countries have been published or updated since 2015. Methods used to develop the guidelines were not well described. No guidelines were developed according to the GRADE approach. Antimicrobial selection, dosage and duration of recommended therapies varied widely across guidelines for all infections and syndromes. CONCLUSION: AU Member States lack antimicrobial treatment guidelines that meet internationally accepted methods and that draw from local evidence about disease burden and antimicrobial susceptibility.

Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. DESIGN: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine.

There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7-11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6-8.1%) of deaths over 2020-2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12-16%) and 31% (29-33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance.

Development of the first edition of African treatment guidelines for common bacterial infections and syndromes.

Standard treatment guidelines (STGs) are an important tool for ensuring high quality clinical care and prudent antimicrobial use (AMU) and stewardship (AMS). In 2018, African Union (AU) member state representatives recognized the lack of STGs as a barrier to AMS at national and facility levels. Previous research reported that only 17 of 55 (31%) member states had STGs that provided disease- or pathogen-specific antimicrobial treatment recommendations, excluding those that covered only treatment of HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis). The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention convened expert panels to develop first edition antibiotic treatment guidelines for priority infectious diseases and clinical syndromes for pediatric and adult patient populations in Africa. The purpose of the guidelines is to provide healthcare workers with treatment guidance by harmonising existing national STGs, filling gaps where existing STGs are not available, and serving as a model for future guidelines. Two expert panels of 28 total clinicians, pharmacists, and other relevant stakeholders from 14 AU member states representing each continental region convened to develop consensus treatment recommendations for select priority bacterial infections and clinical syndromes. In developing recommendations, the panels considered treatment recommendations from existing STGs, drug availability, clinical experience, and available antimicrobial resistance data. The guidelines underwent an external review process where clinical stakeholders who did not serve on either panel were invited to submit feedback prior to their publication. The guidelines provide empiric antibiotic therapy guidelines - including drug selection, route of administration, formulation, dosage, and therapy duration - and principles of stewardship for 28 bacterial infections or clinical syndromes. The first edition guidelines for the treatment of common infectious diseases and clinical syndromes in Africa aims to improve clinical treatment and antimicrobial stewardship and will serve as a template for future regional guidelines.

A one health framework to estimate the cost of antimicrobial resistance.

OBJECTIVES/PURPOSE: The costs attributable to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remain theoretical and largely unspecified. Current figures fail to capture the full health and economic burden caused by AMR across human, animal, and environmental health; historically many studies have considered only direct costs associated with human infection from a hospital perspective, primarily from high-income countries. The Global Antimicrobial Resistance Platform for ONE-Burden Estimates (GAP-ON€) network has developed a framework to help guide AMR costing exercises in any part of the world as a first step towards more comprehensive analyses for comparing AMR interventions at the local level as well as more harmonized analyses for quantifying the full economic burden attributable to AMR at the global level. METHODS: GAP-ON€ (funded under the JPIAMR 8th call (Virtual Research Institute) is composed of 19 international networks and institutions active in the field of AMR. For this project, the Network operated by means of Delphi rounds, teleconferences and face-to-face meetings. The resulting costing framework takes a bottom-up approach to incorporate all relevant costs imposed by an AMR bacterial microbe in a patient, in an animal, or in the environment up through to the societal level. RESULTS: The framework itemizes the epidemiological data as well as the direct and indirect cost components needed to build a realistic cost picture for AMR. While the framework lists a large number of relevant pathogens for which this framework could be used to explore the costs, the framework is sufficiently generic to facilitate the costing of other resistant pathogens, including those of other aetiologies. CONCLUSION: In order to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses to choose amongst different AMR-related interventions at local level, the costing of AMR should be done according to local epidemiological priorities and local health service norms. Yet the use of a common framework across settings allows for the results of such studies to contribute to cumulative estimates that can serve as the basis of broader policy decisions at the international level such as how to steer R&D funding and how to prioritize AMR amongst other issues. Indeed, it is only by building a realistic cost picture that we can make informed decisions on how best to tackle major health threats.

Setting the standard: multidisciplinary hallmarks for structural, equitable and tracked antibiotic policy.

There is increasing concern globally about the enormity of the threats posed by antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to human, animal, plant and environmental health. A proliferation of international, national and institutional reports on the problems posed by AMR and the need for antibiotic stewardship have galvanised attention on the global stage. However, the AMR community increasingly laments a lack of action, often identified as an 'implementation gap'. At a policy level, the design of internationally salient solutions that are able to address AMR's interconnected biological and social (historical, political, economic and cultural) dimensions is not straightforward. This multidisciplinary paper responds by asking two basic questions: (A) Is a universal approach to AMR policy and antibiotic stewardship possible? (B) If yes, what hallmarks characterise 'good' antibiotic policy? Our multistage analysis revealed four central challenges facing current international antibiotic policy: metrics, prioritisation, implementation and inequality. In response to this diagnosis, we propose three hallmarks that can support robust international antibiotic policy. Emerging hallmarks for good antibiotic policies are: Structural, Equitable and Tracked. We describe these hallmarks and propose their consideration should aid the design and evaluation of international antibiotic policies with maximal benefit at both local and international scales.

Childhood vaccines and antibiotic use in low- and middle-income countries.

Vaccines may reduce the burden of antimicrobial resistance, in part by preventing infections for which treatment often includes the use of antibiotics1-4. However, the effects of vaccination on antibiotic consumption remain poorly understood-especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the burden of antimicrobial resistance is greatest5. Here we show that vaccines that have recently been implemented in the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization reduce antibiotic consumption substantially among children under five years of age in LMICs. By analysing data from large-scale studies of households, we estimate that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and live attenuated rotavirus vaccines confer 19.7% (95% confidence interval, 3.4-43.4%) and 11.4% (4.0-18.6%) protection against antibiotic-treated episodes of acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea, respectively, in age groups that experience the greatest disease burden attributable to the vaccine-targeted pathogens6,7. Under current coverage levels, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines prevent 23.8 million and 13.6 million episodes of antibiotic-treated illness, respectively, among children under five years of age in LMICs each year. Direct protection resulting from the achievement of universal coverage targets for these vaccines could prevent an additional 40.0 million episodes of antibiotic-treated illness. This evidence supports the prioritization of vaccines within the global strategy to combat antimicrobial resistance8.

The Lancet Infectious Diseases Commission on antimicrobial resistance: 6 years later.

In 2013, a Lancet Infectious Diseases Commission described the state of antimicrobial resistance worldwide. Since then, greater awareness of the public health ramifications of antimicrobial resistance has led to national actions and global initiatives, including a resolution at the high-level meeting of the UN General Assembly in 2016. Progress in addressing this issue has ranged from a ban on irrational drug combinations in India to commitments to ban colistin as a growth promoter in animals, improve hospital infection control, and implement better antimicrobial stewardship. Funds have been mobilised, and regulatory barriers to new antibiotic development have been relaxed. These efforts have been episodic and uneven across countries, however. Sustained funding for antimicrobial resistance and globally harmonised targets to monitor progress are still urgently needed. Except for in a few leading countries, antimicrobial resistance has not captured the sustained focus of national leaders and country-level actors, including care providers.

Global geographic trends in antimicrobial resistance: the role of international travel.

BACKGROUND: Rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a threat to modern medicine, and increasing international mobility facilitates the spread of AMR. Infections with resistant organisms have higher morbidity and mortality, are costlier to treat, result in longer hospital stays and place a greater burden on health systems than infections caused by susceptible organisms. Here we review the role of travel in the international dissemination of AMR and consider actions at the levels of travelers, travel medicine practitioners and policymakers that would mitigate this threat. RESULTS: Resistant pathogens do not recognize international borders; travelers to areas with high AMR prevalence are likely to be exposed to resistant bacteria and return to their home countries colonized. Medical tourists go between health facilities with drastically different rates of AMR, potentially transmitting highly resistant strains.Drug-resistant bacteria have been found in every continent; however, differences between countries in the prevalence of AMR depend on multiple factors. These include levels of antibiotic consumption (including inappropriate use), access to clean water, adequate sanitation, vaccination coverage, the availability of quality healthcare and access to high-quality medical products. CONCLUSIONS: Travelers to areas with high levels of AMR should have vaccines up to date, be aware of ways of treating and preventing travelers' diarrhea (other than antibiotic use) and be informed on safe sexual practices. The healthcare systems of low- and middle-income countries require investment to reduce the transmission of resistant strains by improving access to clean water, sanitation facilities and vaccines. Efforts are needed to curb inappropriate antibiotic use worldwide. In addition, more surveillance is needed to understand the role of the movement of humans, livestock and food products in resistance transmission. The travel medicine community has a key role to play in advocating for the recognition of AMR as a priority on the international health agenda. KEY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS: AMR is a threat to modern medicine, and international travel plays a key role in the spread of highly resistant strains. It is essential that this is addressed at multiple levels. Individual travelers can reduce antibiotic consumption and the likelihood of infection. Travelers should have up-to-date vaccines and be informed on methods of preventing and treating travelers' diarrhea, other than use of antibiotics and on safe sexual practices, such as condom use. Healthcare facilities need to be aware of the travel history of patients to provide appropriate treatment to those who are at high risk of exposure and to prevent further spread. Internationally, in countries without reliable and universal access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene, investment is needed to reduce the emergence and spread of resistance and ensure the antimicrobials available are of assured quality. High-income countries must ensure their use of antimicrobials is appropriate to reduce selection for AMR. Surveillance across all countries is needed to monitor and respond to this emerging threat.

Cooperation, competition and antibiotic resistance in bacterial colonies.

Bacteria commonly live in dense and genetically diverse communities associated with surfaces. In these communities, competition for resources and space is intense, and yet we understand little of how this affects the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains. Here, we study interactions between antibiotic-resistant and susceptible strains using in vitro competition experiments in the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa and in silico simulations. Selection for intracellular resistance to streptomycin is very strong in colonies, such that resistance is favoured at very low antibiotic doses. In contrast, selection for extracellular resistance to carbenicillin is weak in colonies, and high doses of antibiotic are required to select for resistance. Manipulating the density and spatial structure of colonies reveals that this difference is partly explained by the fact that the local degradation of carbenicillin by ß-lactamase-secreting cells protects neighbouring sensitive cells from carbenicillin. In addition, we discover a second unexpected effect: the inducible elongation of cells in response to carbenicillin allows sensitive cells to better compete for the rapidly growing colony edge. These combined effects mean that antibiotic treatment can select against antibiotic-resistant strains, raising the possibility of treatment regimes that suppress sensitive strains while limiting the rise of antibiotic resistance. We argue that the detailed study of bacterial interactions will be fundamental to understanding and overcoming antibiotic resistance.