Acceleration and transport of relativistic electrons in the jets of the microquasar SS 433.

SS 433 is a microquasar, a stellar binary system that launches collimated relativistic jets. We observed SS 433 in gamma rays using the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) and found an energy-dependent shift in the apparent position of the gamma-ray emission from the parsec-scale jets. These observations trace the energetic electron population and indicate that inverse Compton scattering is the emission mechanism of the gamma rays. Our modeling of the energy-dependent gamma-ray morphology constrains the location of particle acceleration and requires an abrupt deceleration of the jet flow. We infer the presence of shocks on either side of the binary system, at distances of 25 to 30 parsecs, and that self-collimation of the precessing jets forms the shocks, which then efficiently accelerate electrons.

Search for Dark Matter Annihilation Signals in the H.E.S.S. Inner Galaxy Survey.

The central region of the Milky Way is one of the foremost locations to look for dark matter (DM) signatures. We report the first results on a search for DM particle annihilation signals using new observations from an unprecedented γ-ray survey of the Galactic Center (GC) region, i.e., the Inner Galaxy Survey, at very high energies (≳100 GeV) performed with the H.E.S.S. array of five ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. No significant γ-ray excess is found in the search region of the 2014-2020 dataset and a profile likelihood ratio analysis is carried out to set exclusion limits on the annihilation cross section ⟨σv⟩. Assuming Einasto and Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) DM density profiles at the GC, these constraints are the strongest obtained so far in the TeV DM mass range. For the Einasto profile, the constraints reach ⟨σv⟩ values of 3.7×10^{-26} cm^{3} s^{-1} for 1.5 TeV DM mass in the W^{+}W^{-} annihilation channel, and 1.2×10^{-26} cm^{3} s^{-1} for 0.7 TeV DM mass in the τ^{+}τ^{-} annihilation channel. With the H.E.S.S. Inner Galaxy Survey, ground-based γ-ray observations thus probe ⟨σv⟩ values expected from thermal-relic annihilating TeV DM particles.

Time-resolved hadronic particle acceleration in the recurrent nova RS Ophiuchi.

Recurrent novae are repeating thermonuclear explosions in the outer layers of white dwarfs, due to the accretion of fresh material from a binary companion. The shock generated when ejected material slams into the companion star's wind can accelerate particles. We report very-high-energy (VHE; [Formula: see text]) gamma rays from the recurrent nova RS Ophiuchi, up to 1 month after its 2021 outburst, observed using the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). The temporal profile of VHE emission is similar to that of lower-energy giga-electron volt emission, indicating a common origin, with a 2-day delay in peak flux. These observations constrain models of time-dependent particle energization, favoring a hadronic emission scenario over the leptonic alternative. Shocks in dense winds provide favorable environments for efficient acceleration of cosmic rays to very high energies.

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. METHODS: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. RESULTS: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. CONCLUSION: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.

Incidence of injuries and factors related to injuries in combat soldiers.

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal injuries to the lower extremities are major factors contributing to drop out from military tasks. The aim of the present study was to determine the incidence of musculoskeletal injuries and the parameters that differentiate between the soldiers who incurred these injuries and those who did not along 14 weeks of an infantry commanders course. METHODS: One-hundred and sixty-eight participants were recruited from an infantry commanders course. The soldiers were tested before (pre), in the middle (middle) and at the end (last) of the course for anthropometric measurements, proprioceptive ability and dynamic postural balance (DPB), and filled out an ankle stability questionnaire (Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool (CAIT). A physiotherapist followed and recorded all musculoskeletal injuries incurred by the participants during the course. RESULTS: Fifty-eight participants out of the 168 (34.5%) reported some pain/injury. Time effects were found for body mass index, DPB asymmetry, DPB in posterior-medial (P-M) direction and proprioception ability. Injury effects were found for DPB asymmetry, DPB in P-M direction, CAIT and proprioception ability. An interaction was found for proprioception ability. The Cox regression showed that the variables that are mostly effecting injuries were pretesting proprioception ability, DPB asymmetry and CAIT. CONCLUSIONS: More than one out of three participants incurred musculoskeletal injuries, with deficits in proprioception ability, DPB and ankle stability in pretesting as major factors contributing to injuries. Further studies should look at the effect of specific exercises such as proprioception, DPB and ankle stability exercises for prevention and treatment of musculoskeletal injuries among combat soldiers.

Bias correction methods for test-negative designs in the presence of misclassification.

The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach for vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. However, previous studies suggested that it may be more vulnerable than other designs to misclassification of disease outcome caused by imperfect diagnostic tests. This could be a particular limitation in VE studies where simple tests (e.g. rapid influenza diagnostic tests) are used for logistical convenience. To address this issue, we derived a mathematical representation of the TND with imperfect tests, then developed a bias correction framework for possible misclassification. TND studies usually include multiple covariates other than vaccine history to adjust for potential confounders; our methods can also address multivariate analyses and be easily coupled with existing estimation tools. We validated the performance of these methods using simulations of common scenarios for vaccine efficacy and were able to obtain unbiased estimates in a variety of parameter settings.

Author Correction: Post-stroke insomnia in community-dwelling patients with chronic motor stroke: Physiological evidence and implications for stroke care.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

[Long-Term Implementation of Structures and Activities Needed for Health Promotion]. / Was fördert die Verstetigung von Strukturen und Angeboten der Gesundheitsförderung?

To achieve sustainable effects of health promotion interventions, first of all, long-term implementation is needed. However, there are just a few studies that explore how to maintain health-promoting structures and activities after external funding comes to an end. Using a mixed-methods approach, the evaluation study of the Bielefeld University analysed long-term implementation of government-funded projects. Our results show that maintenance of project structures and activities is a multiplex and contextual process. Apart from conceptual factors that can be influenced by project activities, interviewees reported on contextual factors (e. g., political support) that particularly affect successful long-term implementation. Thus, strategies need to be planned and initiated in the early stages of a project.

Setup for meV-resolution inelastic X-ray scattering measurements and X-ray diffraction at the Matter in Extreme Conditions endstation at the Linac Coherent Light Source.

We describe a setup for performing inelastic X-ray scattering and X-ray diffraction measurements at the Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) endstation of the Linac Coherent Light Source. This technique is capable of performing high-, meV-resolution measurements of dynamic ion features in both crystalline and non-crystalline materials. A four-bounce silicon (533) monochromator was used in conjunction with three silicon (533) diced crystal analyzers to provide an energy resolution of ∼50 meV over a range of ∼500 meV in single shot measurements. In addition to the instrument resolution function, we demonstrate the measurement of longitudinal acoustic phonon modes in polycrystalline diamond. Furthermore, this setup may be combined with the high intensity laser drivers available at MEC to create warm dense matter and subsequently measure ion acoustic modes.

Reconstruction and prediction of viral disease epidemics.

A growing number of infectious pathogens are spreading among geographic regions. Some pathogens that were previously not considered to pose a general threat to human health have emerged at regional and global scales, such as Zika and Ebola Virus Disease. Other pathogens, such as yellow fever virus, were previously thought to be under control but have recently re-emerged, causing new challenges to public health organisations. A wide array of new modelling techniques, aided by increased computing capabilities, novel diagnostic tools, and the increased speed and availability of genomic sequencing allow researchers to identify new pathogens more rapidly, assess the likelihood of geographic spread, and quantify the speed of human-to-human transmission. Despite some initial successes in predicting the spread of acute viral infections, the practicalities and sustainability of such approaches will need to be evaluated in the context of public health responses.

Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential.

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age and sex distribution of human cases is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission and spatial expansion toward previously YFV-free areas, followed by a rise in viral spillover to humans in late 2016. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real time that will contribute to a global strategy to eliminate future YFV epidemics.

Post-stroke insomnia in community-dwelling patients with chronic motor stroke: Physiological evidence and implications for stroke care.

Questionnaire studies suggest that stroke patients experience sustained problems with sleep and daytime sleepiness, but physiological sleep studies focussing specifically on the chronic phase of stroke are lacking. Here we report for the first time physiological data of sleep and daytime sleepiness obtained through the two gold-standard methods, nocturnal polysomnography and the Multiple Sleep Latency Test. Data from community-dwelling patients with chronic right-hemispheric stroke (>12 months) were compared to sex- and age-matched controls. Behavioural and physiological measures suggested that stroke patients had poorer sleep with longer sleep latencies and lower sleep efficiency. Patients further spent more time awake during the night, and showed greater high-frequency power during nonREM sleep than controls. At the same time the Multiple Sleep Latency Test revealed greater wake efficiency in patients than controls. Importantly these findings were not due to group differences in sleep disordered breathing or periodic limb movements. Post-stroke insomnia is presently not adequately addressed within the care pathway for stroke. A holistic approach to rehabilitation and care provision, that includes targeted sleep interventions, is likely to enhance long-term outcome and quality of live in those living with chronic deficits after stroke.

Unresolved Gamma-Ray Sky through its Angular Power Spectrum.

The gamma-ray sky has been observed with unprecedented accuracy in the last decade by the Fermi -large area telescope (LAT), allowing us to resolve and understand the high-energy Universe. The nature of the remaining unresolved emission [unresolved gamma-ray background (UGRB)] below the LAT source detection threshold can be uncovered by characterizing the amplitude and angular scale of the UGRB fluctuation field. This Letter presents a measurement of the UGRB autocorrelation angular power spectrum based on eight years of Fermi-LAT Pass 8 data products. The analysis is designed to be robust against contamination from resolved sources and noise systematics. The sensitivity to subthreshold sources is greatly enhanced with respect to previous measurements. We find evidence (with ∼3.7σ significance) that the scenario in which two classes of sources contribute to the UGRB signal is favored over a single class. A double power law with exponential cutoff can explain the anisotropy energy spectrum well, with photon indices of the two populations being 2.55±0.23 and 1.86±0.15.

Investigating the Nature of Late-Time High-Energy GRB Emission Through Joint Fermi /Swift Observations.

We use joint observations by the Neil Gehrels Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) of gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows to investigate the nature of the long-lived high-energy emission observed by Fermi LAT. Joint broadband spectral modeling of XRT and LAT data reveal that LAT non-detections of bright X-ray afterglows are consistent with a cooling break in the inferred electron synchrotron spectrum below the LAT and/or XRT energy ranges. Such a break is sufficient to suppress the high-energy emission so as to be below the LAT detection threshold. By contrast, LAT-detected bursts are best fit by a synchrotron spectrum with a cooling break that lies either between or above the XRT and LAT energy ranges. We speculate that the primary difference between GRBs with LAT afterglow detections and the non-detected population may be in the type of circumstellar environment in which these bursts occur, with late-time LAT detections preferentially selecting GRBs that occur in low wind-like circumburst density profiles. Furthermore, we find no evidence of high-energy emission in the LAT-detected population significantly in excess of the flux expected from the electron synchrotron spectrum fit to the observed X-ray emission. The lack of excess emission at high energies could be due to a shocked external medium in which the energy density in the magnetic field is stronger than or comparable to that of the relativistic electrons behind the shock, precluding the production of a dominant synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) component in the LAT energy range. Alternatively, the peak of the SSC emission could be beyond the 0.1-100 GeV energy range considered for this analysis.

Effect of late prophylaxis in hemophilia on joint status: a randomized trial.

Essentials High-quality data are lacking on use of prophylaxis in adults with hemophilia and arthropathy. SPINART was a 3-year randomized clinical trial of late/tertiary prophylaxis vs on-demand therapy. Prophylaxis improved function, quality of life, activity and pain but not joint structure by MRI. Prophylaxis improves function but must start before joint bleeding onset to prevent arthropathy. SUMMARY: Background Limited data exist on the impact of prophylaxis on adults with severe hemophilia A and pre-existing joint disease. Objectives To describe 3-year bleeding, joint health and structure, health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and other outcomes from the open-label, randomized, multinational SPINART study. Patients/Methods Males aged 12-50 years with severe hemophilia A, ≥ 150 factor VIII exposure days, no inhibitors and no prophylaxis for > 12 consecutive months in the past 5 years were randomized to sucrose-formulated recombinant FVIII prophylaxis or on-demand therapy (OD). Data collected included total and joint bleeding events (BEs), joint structure (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]), joint health (Colorado Adult Joint Assessment Scale [CAJAS]), HRQoL, pain, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), activity, and treatment satisfaction. Results Following 3 years of prophylaxis, adults maintained excellent adherence, with a 94% reduction in BEs despite severe pre-existing arthropathy; 35.7% and 76.2% of prophylaxis participants were bleed-free or had fewer than two BEs per year, respectively. As compared with OD, prophylaxis was associated with improved CAJAS scores (least squares [LS] mean, - 0.31 [n = 42] versus + 0.63 [n = 42]) and HAEMO-QoL-A scores (LS mean, + 3.98 [n = 41] versus - 6.00 [n = 42]), less chronic pain (50% decrease), and approximately two-fold less HRU; activity, Euro QoL-5D-3L (EQ-5D-3L) scores and satisfaction scores also favored prophylaxis. However, MRI score changes were not different for prophylaxis versus OD (LS mean, + 0.79 [n = 41] versus + 0.96 [n = 38]). Conclusions Over a period of 3 years, prophylaxis versus OD in adults with severe hemophilia A and arthropathy led to decreased bleeding, pain, and HRU, better joint health, activity, satisfaction, and HRQoL, but no reduction in structural arthropathy progression, suggesting that pre-existing joint arthropathy may be irreversible.

Medical comorbidity in narcolepsy: findings from the Burden of Narcolepsy Disease (BOND) study.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate medical comorbidity patterns in patients with a narcolepsy diagnosis in the United States. PATIENTS/METHODS: This was a retrospective medical claims data analysis. Truven Health Analytics MarketScan® Research Databases were accessed to identify individuals ≥18 years of age with ≥1 diagnosis code for narcolepsy (International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9, 347.0, 347.00, 347.01, 347.1, 347.10, or 347.11) continuously insured between 2006 and 2010, and controls without narcolepsy matched 5:1 on age, gender, region, and payer. Narcolepsy and control subjects were compared for frequency of comorbid conditions, identified by the appearance of >1 diagnosis code(s) mapped to a Clinical Classification System (CCS) level 1 category any time during the study period, and on specific subcategories, including recognized narcolepsy comorbidities of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and depression. RESULTS: The final study group included 9312 subjects with narcolepsy and 46,559 controls (each group: average age, 46.1 years; 59% female). As compared with controls, patients with narcolepsy showed a statistically significant excess prevalence in all the CCS multilevel categories, the only exceptions being conditions originating in the perinatal period and pregnancy/childbirth complications. The greatest excess prevalence in the narcolepsy cohort was seen for mental illness (31.1% excess prevalence; odds ratio (OR) 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6, 4.0), followed by diseases of the digestive system (21.4% excess prevalence; OR 2.7, 95% CI 2.5, 2.8) and nervous system/sense organs (excluding narcolepsy; 20.7% excess prevalence; OR 3.7, 95% CI 3.4, 3.9). CONCLUSIONS: In this claims analysis, a narcolepsy diagnosis was associated with a wide range of comorbid medical illness claims, at significantly higher rates than matched controls.

Search for Cosmic-Ray Electron and Positron Anisotropies with Seven Years of Fermi Large Area Telescope Data.

The Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope has collected the largest ever sample of high-energy cosmic-ray electron and positron events since the beginning of its operation. Potential anisotropies in the arrival directions of cosmic-ray electrons or positrons could be a signature of the presence of nearby sources. We use almost seven years of data with energies above 42 GeV processed with the Pass 8 reconstruction. The present data sample can probe dipole anisotropies down to a level of 10^{-3}. We take into account systematic effects that could mimic true anisotropies at this level. We present a detailed study of the event selection optimization of the cosmic-ray electrons and positrons to be used for anisotropy searches. Since no significant anisotropies have been detected on any angular scale, we present upper limits on the dipole anisotropy. The present constraints are among the strongest to date probing the presence of nearby young and middle-aged sources.

Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Declining incidence and spatial heterogeneity complicated the design of phase 3 Ebola vaccine trials during the tail of the 2013-16 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa. Mathematical models can provide forecasts of expected incidence through time and can account for both vaccine efficacy in participants and effectiveness in populations. Determining expected disease incidence was critical to calculating power and determining trial sample size. METHODS: In real-time, we fitted, forecasted, and simulated a proposed phase 3 cluster-randomized vaccine trial for a prime-boost EVD vaccine in three candidate regions in Sierra Leone. The aim was to forecast trial feasibility in these areas through time and guide study design planning. RESULTS: EVD incidence was highly variable during the epidemic, especially in the declining phase. Delays in trial start date were expected to greatly reduce the ability to discern an effect, particularly as a trial with an effective vaccine would cause the epidemic to go extinct more quickly in the vaccine arm. Real-time updates of the model allowed decision-makers to determine how trial feasibility changed with time. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis was useful for vaccine trial planning because we simulated effectiveness as well as efficacy, which is possible with a dynamic transmission model. It contributed to decisions on choice of trial location and feasibility of the trial. Transmission models should be utilised as early as possible in the design process to provide mechanistic estimates of expected incidence, with which decisions about sample size, location, timing, and feasibility can be determined.