RESUMO
This study sought to explore whether Twitter, as a passive sensor, could have foreseen the collapse of the Unified Stablecoin (USTC). In May 2022, in just a few days, the cryptocurrency went to near-zero valuation. Analyzing 244,312 tweets from 89,449 distinct accounts between April and June 2022, this study delved into the correlation between personal sentiments in tweets and the USTC market value, revealing a moderate correlation with polarity. While sentiment analysis has often been used to predict market prices, the results suggest the challenge of foreseeing sudden catastrophic events like the USTC collapse solely through sentiment analysis. The analysis uncovered unexpected global interest and noted positive sentiments during the collapse. Additionally, it identified events such as the launch of the new Terra blockchain (referred to as "Terra 2.0") that triggered positive surges. Leveraging machine learning clustering techniques, this study also identified distinct user behaviors, providing valuable insights into influential figures in the cryptocurrency space. This comprehensive analysis marks an initial step toward understanding sudden and catastrophic phenomena in the cryptocurrency market.
RESUMO
The identification of opinion leaders is a matter of great significance for companies and authorities, as these individuals are able to shape the opinions and attitudes of entire societies. In this paper, we consider X (formerly Twitter) as a passive sensor to identify opinion leaders. Given the unreliability of the traditional follower count metric due to the presence of fake accounts and farm bots, our approach combines the measures of visibility and community engagement to identify these influential individuals. Through an experimental evaluation involving approximately 4 million tweets, we showed two important findings: (i) relying solely on follower count or post frequency is inadequate for accurately identifying opinion leaders, (ii) opinion leaders are able to build community and gain visibility around specific themes. The results showed the benefits of using X as a passive sensor to identify opinion leaders, as the proposed method offers substantial advantages for those who are involved in social media communication strategies, including political campaigns, brand monitoring, and policymaking.