Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia.

Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored.

Humboldt's legacy: explaining the influence of environmental factors on the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of angiosperms along a Neotropical elevational gradient.

The scientific work of Alexander von Humboldt was influenced by his interaction with the diversity and natural wealth of the Neotropics. He proposed that climate determines plant diversity along elevational gradients based on his observations. Here, we evaluated the most prominent climate-based hypotheses in explaining plant diversity along an elevational gradient that Humboldt himself visited during his journey across Mexico. Specifically, we examined how climatic variables and forest-use intensity affected species richness and phylogenetic structure of major angiosperm life forms (trees, shrubs, epiphytes, herbs and lianas) along the Cofre de Perote mountain, Veracruz, Mexico. We analysed species richness and phylogenetic structure of angiosperms at eight sites between 30 to 3500 m a.s.l. We estimated the phylogenetic structure using a mega-phylogeny of angiosperms and the abundance-weighted net relatedness index. We considered multiple environmental factors' direct and indirect effects by applying a piecewise structural equation modelling approach. Each life form responds differently to the environmental variables included in our model; however, it is observed that temperature is the main predictor of the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of the angiosperms studied, both when the different life forms are grouped and separated. Potential evapotranspiration and precipitation are variables that also influence some life forms' diversity, especially taxonomic diversity. The forest-use intensity negatively affected only the taxonomic diversity of trees. These results highlight the influence of studying the different life forms of angiosperms in diversity gradient models and show the great influence that temperature has in conjunction with other environmental variables to promote the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of plant communities. Given the current global environmental crisis, an integrative biogeographically oriented vision based on Humboldt's method is necessary. Honouring the work of Humboldt and continuing his legacy demands more research to understand the causes behind elevational diversity gradients.

Diversity and composition of herbaceous angiosperms along gradients of elevation and forest-use intensity.

Terrestrial herbs are important elements of tropical forests; however, there is a lack of research on their diversity patterns and how they respond to different intensities of forest-use. The aim of this study was to analyze the diversity of herbaceous angiosperms along gradients of elevation (50 m to 3500 m) and forest-use intensity on the eastern slopes of the Cofre de Perote, Veracruz, Mexico. We recorded the occurrence of all herbaceous angiosperm species within 120 plots of 20 m x 20 m each. The plots were located at eight study locations separated by ~500 m in elevation and within three different habitats that differ in forest-use intensity: old-growth, degraded, and secondary forest. We analyzed species richness and floristic composition of herb communities among different elevations and habitats. Of the 264 plant species recorded, 31 are endemic to Mexico. Both α- and γ-diversity display a hump-shaped relation to elevation peaking at 2500 m and 3000 m, respectively. The relative contribution of between-habitat ß-diversity to γ-diversity also showed a unimodal hump whereas within-habitat ß-diversity declined with elevation. Forest-use intensity did not affect α-diversity, but ß-diversity was high between old-growth and secondary forests. Overall, γ-diversity peaked at 2500 m (72 species), driven mainly by high within- and among-habitat ß-diversity. We infer that this belt is highly sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance and forest-use intensification. At 3100 m, high γ-diversity (50 species) was driven by high α- and within-habitat ß-diversity. There, losing a specific forest area might be compensated if similar assemblages occur in nearby areas. The high ß-diversity and endemism suggest that mixes of different habitats are needed to sustain high γ-richness of terrestrial herbs along this elevational gradient.