When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change.

Male harm suppresses female fitness, affecting the dynamics of adaptation and evolutionary rescue.

One of the most pressing questions we face as biologists is to understand how climate change will affect the evolutionary dynamics of natural populations and how these dynamics will in turn affect population recovery. Increasing evidence shows that sexual selection favors population viability and local adaptation. However, sexual selection can also foster sexual conflict and drive the evolution of male harm to females. Male harm is extraordinarily widespread and has the potential to suppress female fitness and compromise population growth, yet we currently ignore its net effects across taxa or its influence on local adaptation and evolutionary rescue. We conducted a comparative meta-analysis to quantify the impact of male harm on female fitness and found an overall negative effect of male harm on female fitness. Negative effects seem to depend on proxies of sexual selection, increasing inversely to the female relative size and in species with strong sperm competition. We then developed theoretical models to explore how male harm affects adaptation and evolutionary rescue. We show that, when sexual conflict depends on local adaptation, population decline is reduced, but at the cost of slowing down genetic adaptation. This trade-off suggests that eco-evolutionary feedback on sexual conflict can act like a double-edged sword, reducing extinction risk by buffering the demographic costs of climate change, but delaying genetic adaptation. However, variation in the mating system and male harm type can mitigate this trade-off. Our work shows that male harm has widespread negative effects on female fitness and productivity, identifies potential mechanistic factors underlying variability in such costs across taxa, and underscores how acknowledging the condition-dependence of male harm may be important to understand the demographic and evolutionary processes that impact how species adapt to environmental change.

Interactions between fitness components across the life cycle constrain competitor coexistence.

Numerous mechanisms can promote competitor coexistence. Yet, these mechanisms are often considered in isolation from one another. Consequently, whether multiple mechanisms shaping coexistence combine to promote or constrain species coexistence remains an open question. Here, we aim to understand how multiple mechanisms interact within and between life stages to determine frequency-dependent population growth, which has a key role stabilizing local competitor coexistence. We conducted field experiments in three lakes manipulating relative frequencies of two Enallagma damselfly species to evaluate demographic contributions of three mechanisms affecting different fitness components across the life cycle: the effect of resource competition on individual growth rate, predation shaping mortality rates, and mating harassment determining fecundity. We then used a demographic model that incorporates carry-over effects between life stages to decompose the relative effect of each fitness component generating frequency-dependent population growth. This decomposition showed that fitness components combined to increase population growth rates for one species when rare, but they combined to decrease population growth rates for the other species when rare, leading to predicted exclusion in most lakes. Because interactions between fitness components within and between life stages vary among populations, these results show that local coexistence is population specific. Moreover, we show that multiple mechanisms do not necessarily increase competitor coexistence, as they can also combine to yield exclusion. Identifying coexistence mechanisms in other systems will require greater focus on determining contributions of different fitness components across the life cycle shaping competitor coexistence in a way that captures the potential for population-level variation.

Environmental Conditions during Development Affect Sexual Selection through Trait-Fitness Relationships.

AbstractSexual selection can be shaped by spatial variation in environmental features among populations. Differences in sexual selection among populations generated through the effects of the environment could be shaped via four paths: differences in mean absolute fitness, differences in the means or variances of phenotypes, or differences in the absolute fitness-trait function relationship. Because sexual selection occurs only during the adult life stage, most studies have focused on identifying environmental features that influence these metrics of fitness and trait distributions among adults. However, these adult features could also be affected by environmental factors experienced in early life stages that then shape the trajectory for sexual selection during the adult life stage. Here we investigated how among-population variation in environmental conditions during the juvenile (larval) stage of two species of Enallagma damselflies shapes sexual selection on male body size. We found that environmental factors related to predation pressures, lake primary productivity, and habitat availability play a role in shaping spatial variation in sexual selection. This acts mainly through how the environment affects absolute fitness-body size associations, not spatial variation in mean fitness or body size means and variances. These results demonstrate that the underpinnings of sexual selection in the wild can arise from environmental conditions during prereproductive life stages.

The importance of pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection promoting adaptation to increasing temperatures.

Global temperatures are increasing rapidly affecting species globally. Understanding if and how different species can adapt fast enough to keep up with increasing temperatures is of vital importance. One mechanism that can accelerate adaptation and promote evolutionary rescue is sexual selection. Two different mechanisms by which sexual selection can facilitate adaptation are pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection. However, the relative effects of these different forms of sexual selection in promoting adaptation are unknown. Here, we present the results from an experimental study in which we exposed fruit flies Drosophila melanogaster to either no mate choice or 1 of 2 different sexual selection regimes (pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection) for 6 generations, under different thermal regimes. Populations showed evidence of thermal adaptation under precopulatory sexual selection, but this effect was not detected in the postcopulatory sexual selection and the no choice mating regime. We further demonstrate that sexual dimorphism decreased when flies evolved under increasing temperatures, consistent with recent theory predicting more sexually concordant selection under environmental stress. Our results suggest an important role for precopulatory sexual selection in promoting thermal adaptation and evolutionary rescue.

When Ecology Fails: How Reproductive Interactions Promote Species Coexistence.

That species must differ ecologically is often viewed as a fundamental condition for their stable coexistence in biological communities. Yet, recent work has shown that ecologically equivalent species can coexist when reproductive interactions and sexual selection regulate population growth. Here, we review theoretical models and highlight empirical studies supporting a role for reproductive interactions in maintaining species diversity. We place reproductive interactions research within a burgeoning conceptual framework of coexistence theory, identify four key mechanisms in intra- and interspecific interactions within and between sexes, speculate on novel mechanisms, and suggest future research. Given the preponderance of sexual reproduction in nature, our review suggests that this is a neglected path towards explaining species diversity when traditional ecological explanations have failed.

Selection on phenotypic plasticity favors thermal canalization.

Climate change affects organisms worldwide with profound ecological and evolutionary consequences, often increasing population extinction risk. Climatic factors can increase the strength, variability, or direction of natural selection on phenotypic traits, potentially driving adaptive evolution. Phenotypic plasticity in relation to temperature can allow organisms to maintain fitness in response to increasing temperatures, thereby "buying time" for subsequent genetic adaptation and promoting evolutionary rescue. Although many studies have shown that organisms respond plastically to increasing temperatures, it is unclear if such thermal plasticity is adaptive. Moreover, we know little about how natural and sexual selection operate on thermal reaction norms, reflecting such plasticity. Here, we investigate how natural and sexual selection shape phenotypic plasticity in two congeneric and phenotypically similar sympatric insect species. We show that the thermal optima for longevity and mating success differ, suggesting temperature-dependent trade-offs between survival and reproduction in both sexes. Males in these species have similar thermal reaction norm slopes but have diverged in baseline body temperature (intercepts), being higher for the more northern species. Natural selection favored reduced thermal reaction norm slopes at high ambient temperatures, suggesting that the current level of thermal plasticity is maladaptive in the context of anthropogenic climate change and that selection now promotes thermal canalization and robustness. Our results show that ectothermic animals also at high latitudes can suffer from overheating and challenge the common view of phenotypic plasticity as being beneficial in harsh and novel environments.

Male-Male Competition Causes Parasite-Mediated Sexual Selection for Local Adaptation.

AbstractSexual selection has been suggested to accelerate local adaptation and promote evolutionary rescue through several ecological and genetic mechanisms. Condition-dependent sexual selection has mainly been studied in laboratory settings, while data from natural populations are lacking. One ecological factor that can cause condition-dependent sexual selection is parasitism. Here, we quantified ectoparasite load (Arrenurus water mites) in a natural population of the common bluetail damselfly (Ischnura elegans) over 15 years. We quantified the strength of sexual selection against parasite load in both sexes and experimentally investigated the mechanisms behind such selection. Then we investigated how parasite resistance and tolerance changed over time to understand how they might influence population density. Parasites reduced mating success in both sexes, and sexual selection was stronger in males than in females. Experiments show that male-male competition is a strong force causing precopulatory sexual selection against parasite load. Although parasite resistance and male parasite tolerance increased over time, suggestive of increasing local adaptation against parasites, no signal of evolutionary rescue could be found. We suggest that condition-dependent sexual selection facilitates local adaptation against parasites and discuss its effects in evolutionary rescue.

Sex differences in local adaptation: what can we learn from reciprocal transplant experiments?

Local adaptation is of fundamental interest to evolutionary biologists. Traditionally, local adaptation has been studied using reciprocal transplant experiments to quantify fitness differences between residents and immigrants in pairwise transplants between study populations. Previous studies have detected local adaptation in some cases, but others have shown lack of adaptation or even maladaptation. Recently, the importance of different fitness components, such as survival and fecundity, to local adaptation have been emphasized. Here, we address another neglected aspect in studies of local adaptation: sex differences. Given the ubiquity of sexual dimorphism in life histories and phenotypic traits, this neglect is surprising, but may be partly explained by differences in research traditions and terminology in the fields of local adaptation and sexual selection. Studies that investigate differences in mating success between resident and immigrants across populations tend to be framed in terms of reproductive and behavioural isolation, rather than local adaptation. We briefly review the published literature that bridges these areas and suggest that reciprocal transplant experiments could benefit from quantifying both male and female fitness components. Such a more integrative research approach could clarify the role of sex differences in the evolution of local adaptations.This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking local adaptation with the evolution of sex differences'.

Frequency Dependence and Ecological Drift Shape Coexistence of Species with Similar Niches.

The coexistence of ecologically similar species might be counteracted by ecological drift and demographic stochasticity, both of which erode local diversity. With niche differentiation, species can be maintained through performance trade-offs between environments, but trade-offs are difficult to invoke for species with similar ecological niches. Such similar species might then go locally extinct due to stochastic ecological drift, but there is little empirical evidence for such processes. Previous studies have relied on biogeographical surveys and inferred process from pattern, while experimental field investigations of ecological drift are rare. Mechanisms preserving local species diversity, such as frequency dependence (e.g., rare-species advantages), can oppose local ecological drift, but the combined effects of ecological drift and such counteracting forces have seldom been investigated. Here, we investigate mechanisms between coexistence of ecologically similar but strongly sexually differentiated damselfly species (Calopteryx virgo and Calopteryx splendens). Combining field surveys, behavioral observations, experimental manipulations of species frequencies and densities, and simulation modeling, we demonstrate that species coexistence is shaped by the opposing forces of ecological drift and negative frequency dependence (rare-species advantage), generated by interference competition. Stochastic and deterministic processes therefore jointly shape coexistence. The role of negative frequency dependence in delaying the loss of ecologically similar species, such as those formed by sexual selection, should therefore be considered in community assembly, macroecology, macroevolution, and biogeography.

Sexual conflict and ecology: Species composition and male density interact to reduce male mating harassment and increase female survival.

Sexual conflict is a pervasive evolutionary force that can reduce female fitness. Experimental evolution studies in the laboratory might overestimate the importance of sexual conflict because the ecological conditions in such settings typically include only a single species. Here, we experimentally manipulated conspecific male density (high or low) and species composition (sympatric or allopatric) to investigate how ecological conditions affect female survival in a sexually dimorphic insect, the banded demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens). Female survival was strongly influenced by an interaction between male density and species composition. Specifically, at low conspecific male density, female survival increased in the presence of heterospecific males (C. virgo). Behavioral mating experiments showed that interspecific interference competition reduced conspecific male mating success with large females. These findings suggest that reproductive interference competition between con- and heterospecific males might indirectly facilitate female survival by reducing mating harassment from conspecific males. Hence, interspecific competitors can show contrasting effects on the two sexes thereby influencing sexual conflict dynamics. Our results call for incorporation of more ecological realism in sexual conflict research, particularly how local community context and reproductive interference competition between heterospecific males can affect female fitness.

The coevolution of sexual imprinting by males and females.

Sexual imprinting is the learning of a mate preference by direct observation of the phenotype of another member of the population. Sexual imprinting can be paternal, maternal, or oblique if individuals learn to prefer the phenotypes of their fathers, mothers, or other members of the population, respectively. Which phenotypes are learned can affect trait evolution and speciation rates. "Good genes" models of polygynous systems predict that females should evolve to imprint on their fathers, because paternal imprinting helps females to choose mates that will produce offspring that are both viable and sexy. Sexual imprinting by males has been observed in nature, but a theory for the evolution of sexual imprinting by males does not exist. We developed a good genes model to study the conditions under which sexual imprinting by males or by both sexes can evolve and to ask which sexual imprinting strategies maximize the fitness of the choosy sex. We found that when only males imprint, maternal imprinting is the most advantageous strategy. When both sexes imprint, it is most advantageous for both sexes to use paternal imprinting. Previous theory suggests that, in a given population, either males or females but not both will evolve choosiness in mating. We show how environmental change can lead to the evolution of sexual imprinting behavior by both sexes in the same population.