Systematic evaluation of high-throughput PBK modelling strategies for the prediction of intravenous and oral pharmacokinetics in humans.

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling offers a mechanistic basis for predicting the pharmaco-/toxicokinetics of compounds and thereby provides critical information for integrating toxicity and exposure data to replace animal testing with in vitro or in silico methods. However, traditional PBK modelling depends on animal and human data, which limits its usefulness for non-animal methods. To address this limitation, high-throughput PBK modelling aims to rely exclusively on in vitro and in silico data for model generation. Here, we evaluate a variety of in silico tools and different strategies to parameterise PBK models with input values from various sources in a high-throughput manner. We gather 2000 + publicly available human in vivo concentration-time profiles of 200 + compounds (IV and oral administration), as well as in silico, in vitro and in vivo determined compound-specific parameters required for the PBK modelling of these compounds. Then, we systematically evaluate all possible PBK model parametrisation strategies in PK-Sim and quantify their prediction accuracy against the collected in vivo concentration-time profiles. Our results show that even simple, generic high-throughput PBK modelling can provide accurate predictions of the pharmacokinetics of most compounds (87% of Cmax and 84% of AUC within tenfold). Nevertheless, we also observe major differences in prediction accuracies between the different parameterisation strategies, as well as between different compounds. Finally, we outline a strategy for high-throughput PBK modelling that relies exclusively on freely available tools. Our findings contribute to a more robust understanding of the reliability of high-throughput PBK modelling, which is essential to establish the confidence necessary for its utilisation in Next-Generation Risk Assessment.

Novel clinical phenotypes, drug categorization, and outcome prediction in drug-induced cholestasis: Analysis of a database of 432 patients developed by literature review and machine learning support.

BACKGROUND: Serum transaminases, alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin are common parameters used for DILI diagnosis, classification, and prognosis. However, the relevance of clinical examination, histopathology and drug chemical properties have not been fully investigated. As cholestasis is a frequent and complex DILI manifestation, our goal was to investigate the relevance of clinical features and drug properties to stratify drug-induced cholestasis (DIC) patients, and to develop a prognosis model to identify patients at risk and high-concern drugs. METHODS: DIC-related articles were searched by keywords and Boolean operators in seven databases. Relevant articles were uploaded onto Sysrev, a machine-learning based platform for article review and data extraction. Demographic, clinical, biochemical, and liver histopathological data were collected. Drug properties were obtained from databases or QSAR modelling. Statistical analyses and logistic regressions were performed. RESULTS: Data from 432 DIC patients associated with 52 drugs were collected. Fibrosis strongly associated with fatality, whereas canalicular paucity and ALP associated with chronicity. Drugs causing cholestasis clustered in three major groups. The pure cholestatic pattern divided into two subphenotypes with differences in prognosis, canalicular paucity, fibrosis, ALP and bilirubin. A predictive model of DIC outcome based on non-invasive parameters and drug properties was developed. Results demonstrate that physicochemical (pKa-a) and pharmacokinetic (bioavailability, CYP2C9) attributes impinged on the DIC phenotype and allowed the identification of high-concern drugs. CONCLUSIONS: We identified novel associations among DIC manifestations and disclosed novel DIC subphenotypes with specific clinical and chemical traits. The developed predictive DIC outcome model could facilitate DIC prognosis in clinical practice and drug categorization.

Collaborative SAR Modeling and Prospective In Vitro Validation of Oxidative Stress Activation in Human HepG2 Cells.

Oxidative stress is the consequence of an abnormal increase of reactive oxygen species (ROS). ROS are generated mainly during the metabolism in both normal and pathological conditions as well as from exposure to xenobiotics. Xenobiotics can, on the one hand, disrupt molecular machinery involved in redox processes and, on the other hand, reduce the effectiveness of the antioxidant activity. Such dysregulation may lead to oxidative damage when combined with oxidative stress overpassing the cell capacity to detoxify ROS. In this work, a green fluorescent protein (GFP)-tagged nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (NRF2)-regulated sulfiredoxin reporter (Srxn1-GFP) was used to measure the antioxidant response of HepG2 cells to a large series of drug and drug-like compounds (2230 compounds). These compounds were then classified as positive or negative depending on cellular response and distributed among different modeling groups to establish structure-activity relationship (SAR) models. A selection of models was used to prospectively predict oxidative stress induced by a new set of compounds subsequently experimentally tested to validate the model predictions. Altogether, this exercise exemplifies the different challenges of developing SAR models of a phenotypic cellular readout, model combination, chemical space selection, and results interpretation.

A KNIME Workflow to Assist the Analogue Identification for Read-Across, Applied to Aromatase Activity.

The reduction and replacement of in vivo tests have become crucial in terms of resources and animal benefits. The read-across approach reduces the number of substances to be tested, exploiting existing experimental data to predict the properties of untested substances. Currently, several tools have been developed to perform read-across, but other approaches, such as computational workflows, can offer a more flexible and less prescriptive approach. In this paper, we are introducing a workflow to support analogue identification for read-across. The implementation of the workflow was performed using a database of azole chemicals with in vitro toxicity data for human aromatase enzymes. The workflow identified analogues based on three similarities: structural similarity (StrS), metabolic similarity (MtS), and mechanistic similarity (McS). Our results showed how multiple similarity metrics can be combined within a read-across assessment. The use of the similarity based on metabolism and toxicological mechanism improved the predictions in particular for sensitivity. Beyond the results predicting a large population of substances, practical examples illustrate the advantages of the proposed approach.

Ligand-based prediction of hERG-mediated cardiotoxicity based on the integration of different machine learning techniques.

Drug-induced cardiotoxicity is a common side effect of drugs in clinical use or under postmarket surveillance and is commonly due to off-target interactions with the cardiac human-ether-a-go-go-related (hERG) potassium channel. Therefore, prioritizing drug candidates based on their hERG blocking potential is a mandatory step in the early preclinical stage of a drug discovery program. Herein, we trained and properly validated 30 ligand-based classifiers of hERG-related cardiotoxicity based on 7,963 curated compounds extracted by the freely accessible repository ChEMBL (version 25). Different machine learning algorithms were tested, namely, random forest, K-nearest neighbors, gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting, multilayer perceptron, and support vector machine. The application of 1) the best practices for data curation, 2) the feature selection method VSURF, and 3) the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to properly handle the unbalanced data, allowed for the development of highly predictive models (BAMAX = 0.91, AUCMAX = 0.95). Remarkably, the undertaken temporal validation approach not only supported the predictivity of the herein presented classifiers but also suggested their ability to outperform those models commonly used in the literature. From a more methodological point of view, the study put forward a new computational workflow, freely available in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/PDelre93/hERG-QSAR), as valuable for building highly predictive models of hERG-mediated cardiotoxicity.

Monte Carlo Models for Sub-Chronic Repeated-Dose Toxicity: Systemic and Organ-Specific Toxicity.

The risk-characterization of chemicals requires the determination of repeated-dose toxicity (RDT). This depends on two main outcomes: the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) and the lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL). These endpoints are fundamental requirements in several regulatory frameworks, such as the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) and the European Regulation of 1223/2009 on cosmetics. The RDT results for the safety evaluation of chemicals are undeniably important; however, the in vivo tests are time-consuming and very expensive. The in silico models can provide useful input to investigate sub-chronic RDT. Considering the complexity of these endpoints, involving variable experimental designs, this non-testing approach is challenging and attractive. Here, we built eight in silico models for the NOAEL and LOAEL predictions, focusing on systemic and organ-specific toxicity, looking into the effects on the liver, kidney and brain. Starting with the NOAEL and LOAEL data for oral sub-chronic toxicity in rats, retrieved from public databases, we developed and validated eight quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models based on the optimal descriptors calculated by the Monte Carlo method, using the CORAL software. The results obtained with these models represent a good achievement, to exploit them in a safety assessment, considering the importance of organ-related toxicity.

Prediction of the Neurotoxic Potential of Chemicals Based on Modelling of Molecular Initiating Events Upstream of the Adverse Outcome Pathways of (Developmental) Neurotoxicity.

Developmental and adult/ageing neurotoxicity is an area needing alternative methods for chemical risk assessment. The formulation of a strategy to screen large numbers of chemicals is highly relevant due to potential exposure to compounds that may have long-term adverse health consequences on the nervous system, leading to neurodegeneration. Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) provide information on relevant molecular initiating events (MIEs) and key events (KEs) that could inform the development of computational alternatives for these complex effects. We propose a screening method integrating multiple Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. The MIEs of existing AOP networks of developmental and adult/ageing neurotoxicity were modelled to predict neurotoxicity. Random Forests were used to model each MIE. Predictions returned by single models were integrated and evaluated for their capability to predict neurotoxicity. Specifically, MIE predictions were used within various types of classifiers and compared with other reference standards (chemical descriptors and structural fingerprints) to benchmark their predictive capability. Overall, classifiers based on MIE predictions returned predictive performances comparable to those based on chemical descriptors and structural fingerprints. The integrated computational approach described here will be beneficial for large-scale screening and prioritisation of chemicals as a function of their potential to cause long-term neurotoxic effects.

In Silico Methods for Chromosome Damage.

Due to the link with serious adverse health effects, genotoxicity is an important toxicological endpoint in each regulatory setting with respect to human health, including for pharmaceuticals. To this extent, a compound potential to induce gene mutations as well as chromosome damage needs to be addressed. For chromosome damage, i.e., the induction of structural or numerical chromosome aberrations, several in vitro and in vivo test methods are available. In order to rapidly collect toxicological data without the need for test material, several in silico tools for chromosome damage have been developed over the last years. In this chapter, a battery of freely available in silico chromosome damage prediction tools for chromosome damage is applied on a dataset of pharmaceuticals. Examples of the different outcomes obtained with the in silico battery are provided and briefly discussed. Furthermore, results for coumarin are presented in more detail as a case study. Overall, it can be concluded that although they are in general less developed than those for mutagenicity, in silico tools for chromosome damage can provide valuable information, especially when combined in a battery.

In Silico Models for Repeated-Dose Toxicity (RDT): Prediction of the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) and Lowest Observed Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) for Drugs.

Many regulatory contexts require the evaluation of repeated-dose toxicity (RDT) studies conducted in laboratory animals. The main outcome of RDT studies is the identification of the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) and the lowest observed adverse effect level (LOAEL) that are normally used as point of departure for the establishment of health-based guidance values. Since in vivo RDT studies are expensive and time-consuming, in silico approaches could offer a valuable alternative. However, NOAEL and LOAEL modeling suffer some limitations since they do not refer to a single end point but to several different effects, and the doses used in experimental studies strongly influence the results. Few attempts to model NOAEL and LOAEL have been reported. The available database and models for the prediction of NOAEL and LOAEL are reviewed here.

Integrate mechanistic evidence from new approach methodologies (NAMs) into a read-across assessment to characterise trends in shared mode of action.

Read-across approaches often remain inconclusive as they do not provide sufficient evidence on a common mode of action across the category members. This read-across case study on thirteen, structurally similar, branched aliphatic carboxylic acids investigates the concept of using human-based new approach methods, such as in vitro and in silico models, to demonstrate biological similarity. Five out of the thirteen analogues have preclinical in vivo studies. Three out of them induced lipid accumulation or hypertrophy in preclinical studies with repeated exposure, which leads to the read-across hypothesis that the analogues can potentially induce hepatic steatosis. To confirm the selection of analogues, the expression patterns of the induced differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were analysed in a human liver model. With increasing dose, the expression pattern within the tested analogues got more similar, which serves as a first indication of a common mode of action and suggests differences in the potency of the analogues. Hepatic steatosis is a well-known adverse outcome, for which over 55 adverse outcome pathways have been identified. The resulting adverse outcome pathway (AOP) network, comprised a total 43 MIEs/KEs and enabled the design of an in vitro testing battery. From the AOP network, ten MIEs, early and late KEs were tested to systematically investigate a common mode of action among the grouped compounds. The targeted testing of AOP specific MIE/KEs shows that biological activity in the category decreases with side chain length. A similar trend was evident in measuring liver alterations in zebra fish embryos. However, activation of single MIEs or early KEs at in vivo relevant doses did not necessarily progress to the late KE "lipid accumulation". KEs not related to the read-across hypothesis, testing for example general mitochondrial stress responses in liver cells, showed no trend or biological similarity. Testing scope is a key issue in the design of in vitro test batteries. The Dempster-Shafer decision theory predicted those analogues with in vivo reference data correctly using one human liver model or the CALUX reporter assays. The case study shows that the read-across hypothesis is the key element to designing the testing strategy. In the case of a good mechanistic understanding, an AOP facilitates the selection of reliable human in vitro models to demonstrate a common mode of action. Testing DEGs, MIEs and early KEs served to show biological similarity, whereas the late KEs become important for confirmation, as progression from MIEs to AO is not always guaranteed.

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Modeling of the Amplex Ultrared Assay to Predict Thyroperoxidase Inhibitory Activity.

The thyroid system plays a major role in the regulation of several physiological processes. The dysregulation of the thyroid system caused by the interference of xenobiotics and contaminants may bring to pathologies like hyper- and hypothyroidism and it has been recently correlated with adverse outcomes leading to cancer, obesity, diabetes and neurodevelopmental disorders. Thyroid disruption can occur at several levels. For example, the inhibition of thyroperoxidase (TPO) enzyme, which catalyses the synthesis of thyroid hormones, may cause dysfunctions related to hypothyroidism. The inhibition of the TPO enzyme can occur as a consequence of prolonged exposure to chemical compounds, for this reason it is of utmost importance to identify alternative methods to evaluate the large amount of pollutants and other chemicals that may pose a potential hazard to the human health. In this work, quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict the TPO inhibitory potential of chemicals are presented. Models are developed by means of several machine learning and data selection approaches, and are based on data obtained in vitro with the Amplex UltraRed-thyroperoxidase (AUR-TPO) assay. Balancing methods and feature selection are applied during model development. Models are rigorously evaluated through internal and external validation. Based on validation results, two models based on Balanced Random Forest (BRF) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) algorithms were selected for a further validation phase, that leads predictive performance (BA = 0.76-0.78 on external data) that is comparable with the reported experimental variability of the AUR-TPO assay (BA ∼0.70). Finally, a consensus between the two models was proposed (BA = 0.82). Based on the predictive performance, these models can be considered suitable for toxicity screening of environmental chemicals.

Ecotoxicological QSAR modeling of the acute toxicity of organic compounds to the freshwater crustacean Thamnocephalus platyurus.

Growing interest in environmental toxicity assessment using Thamnocephalus platyurus as organism has led to an increased availability of acute toxicity data. Despite this growing interest in tests with this organism, however, to the best of our knowledge there are no computational models to predict the acute toxicity in T. platyurus. In view of the limited number of in silico models for this crustacean, we developed Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models for the prediction of acute toxicity towards T. platyurus, reflected by the 24h LC50, using publicly available data according to the ISO 14380:2011 guideline. Two models were developed following the principles of QSAR modeling recommended by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We used partial least squares and gradient boosting machine techniques, which gave encouraging statistical quality in our data set.

A descriptor-based analysis to highlight the mechanistic rationale of mutagenicity.

Cancer is a main concern for human health and there is a need of alternative methodologies to rapidly screen large quantitative of compounds that may represent a toxicological risk. Here a statistical analyses is performed on a benchmark database of experimental Ames data to identify chemical descriptors discriminating mutagens and non-mutagens. A total of 53 activating and deactivating modulators are identified, that flagged respectively a percentage of mutagen and non-mutagen up to 87%. Modulators are further combined to form synergistic cross-terms, accounting for the effect that combined properties may have on the final toxicity. Exclusion rules are defined as exception to the modulators. Synergistic cross-terms and exclusion rules improve the enrichment of mutagens/non-mutagens with respect of the original abundance in the dataset to values higher than 95%. The external predictivity of modulators and cross-terms reach balanced accuracy up to 0.775 that is analogous to other mutagenicity models from the literature, confirming the suitability of the rules to real-life screening of chemicals. Modulators are discussed for their mechanistic link to mutagenicity. This analysis confirms the key role of some properties (polarizability, shape, mass, presence of reactive functional groups or unsaturated planar systems) as driving elements for the initiation of the mutagenicity.

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite.

BACKGROUND: Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals. OBJECTIVES: The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different end points: Lethal Dose 50 (LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard (four) categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labeling hazard (five) categories, very toxic chemicals [LD50 (LD50≤50mg/kg)], and nontoxic chemicals (LD50>2,000mg/kg). METHODS: An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches. RESULTS: The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared with in vivo results. DISCUSSION: CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for more than 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the National Toxicology Program's Integrated Chemical Environment tools and data sets (ice.ntp.niehs.nih.gov). The models are also implemented in a free, standalone, open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8495.

Integrated In Silico Models for the Prediction of No-Observed-(Adverse)-Effect Levels and Lowest-Observed-(Adverse)-Effect Levels in Rats for Sub-chronic Repeated-Dose Toxicity.

Repeated-dose toxicity (RDT) is a critical endpoint for hazard characterization of chemicals and is assessed to derive safe levels of exposure for human health. Here we present the first attempt to model simultaneously no-observed-(adverse)-effect level (NO(A)EL) and lowest-observed-(adverse)-effect level (LO(A)EL). Classification and regression models were derived based on rat sub-chronic repeated dose toxicity data for 327 compounds from the Fraunhofer RepDose database. Multi-category classification models were built for both NO(A)EL and LO(A)EL though a consensus of statistics- and fragment-based algorithms, while regression models were based on quantitative relationships between the endpoints and SMILES-based attributes. NO(A)EL and LO(A)EL models were integrated, and predictions were compared to exclude inconsistent values. This strategy improved the performance of single models, leading to R2 greater than 0.70, root-mean-square error (RMSE) lower than 0.60 (for regression models), and accuracy of 0.61-0.73 (for classification models) on the validation set, based on the endpoint and the threshold applied for selecting predictions. This study confirms the effectiveness of the modeling strategy presented here for assessing RDT of chemicals using in silico models.

Zebrafish AC50 modelling: (Q)SAR models to predict developmental toxicity in zebrafish embryo.

Developmental toxicity refers to the occurrence of adverse effects on a developing organism as a consequence of exposure to hazardous chemicals. The assessment of developmental toxicity has become relevant to the safety assessment process of chemicals. The zebrafish embryo developmental toxicology assay is an emerging test used to screen the teratogenic potential of chemicals and it is proposed as a promising test to replace teratogenic assays with animals. Supported by the increased availability of data from this test, the developmental toxicity assay with zebrafish has become an interesting endpoint for the in silico modelling. The purpose of this study was to build up quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. In this work, new in silico models for the evaluation of developmental toxicity were built using a well-defined set of data from the ToxCastTM Phase I chemical library on the zebrafish embryo. Categorical and continuous QSAR models were built by gradient boosting machine learning and the Monte Carlo technique respectively, in accordance with Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development principles and their statistical quality was satisfactory. The classification model reached balanced accuracy 0.89 and Matthews correlation coefficient 0.77 on the test set. The regression model reached correlation coefficient R2 0.70 in external validation and leave-one-out cross-validated Q2 0.73 in internal validation.

Automated integration of structural, biological and metabolic similarities to improve read-across.

Read-across (RAX) is a popular data-gap filling technique that uses category and analogue approaches to predict toxicological endpoints for a target. Despite its increasing relevance, RAX relies on human expert judgement and lacks a reproducible and automated protocol. It also only relies on structural similarity for identifying the analogues, while other aspects are often neglected. In this paper, we propose an automated procedure for the selection of analogues for data gap-filling. Analogues were identified with a decision algorithm that integrates three similarity metrics, each considering different toxicologically relevant aspects (i.e., structural, biological and metabolic similarity). Structural filters based on the presence of maximum common substructures (MCS) and common functional groups were applied to narrow the chemical space for the analogues search. The procedure has been implemented as a workflow in KNIME and is freely available. The workflow provides informative tabular and graphical outputs to support toxicologists and risk assessors in drawing conclusion based on the RAX approach. The procedure has been validated for its predictive power on two datasets related to high-tier in vivo toxicological endpoints, i.e. human hepatotoxicity and drug-induced liver injury (DILI). The validation results gave good accuracy values (i.e., up to 0.79 for the binary hepatotoxicity classification and up to 0.67 for the three-class DILI classification) that were higher than those returned by RAX based on the sole use of structural similarity. Results confirmed the suitability of the procedure as a source of data to support regulatory decision-making.

QSAR Models for Human Carcinogenicity: An Assessment Based on Oral and Inhalation Slope Factors.

Carcinogenicity is a crucial endpoint for the safety assessment of chemicals and products. During the last few decades, the development of quantitative structure-activity relationship ((Q)SAR) models has gained importance for regulatory use, in combination with in vitro testing or expert-based reasoning. Several classification models can now predict both human and rat carcinogenicity, but there are few models to quantitatively assess carcinogenicity in humans. To our knowledge, slope factor (SF), a parameter describing carcinogenicity potential used especially for human risk assessment of contaminated sites, has never been modeled for both inhalation and oral exposures. In this study, we developed classification and regression models for inhalation and oral SFs using data from the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS) and different machine learning approaches. The models performed well in classification, with accuracies for the external set of 0.76 and 0.74 for oral and inhalation exposure, respectively, and r2 values of 0.57 and 0.65 in the regression models for oral and inhalation SFs in external validation. These models might therefore support regulators in (de)prioritizing substances for regulatory action and in weighing evidence in the context of chemical safety assessments. Moreover, these models are implemented on the VEGA platform and are now freely downloadable online.