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India reported over 10 million COVID-19 cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To estimate exposure and the potential for further spread, we used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fit to seroprevalence data from three serosurveys in Delhi and the time-series of reported deaths to reconstruct the epidemic. The cumulative proportion of the population estimated infected was 48.7% (95% CrI 22.1% - 76.8%) by end-September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries (HICs), we estimate that 15.0% (95% CrI 9.3% - 34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths were reported. This indicates either under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths and/or a lower age-specific IFR in India compared with HICs. Despite the high attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, a third wave occurred in late 2020, suggesting that herd immunity was not yet reached. Future dynamics will strongly depend on the duration of immunity and protection against new variants.
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Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection are now widely available, but there are few data on longitudinal serology in large cohorts, particularly from low-and middle-income countries. We established an ongoing prospective cohort of 3840 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive individuals in the Delhi-National Capital Region of India, to document clinical and immunological characteristics during illness and convalescence. The IgG responses to the receptor binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid were assessed at 0-7, 10-28 days and 6-10 weeks after infection. The clinical predictors of seroconversion were identified by multivariable regression analysis. The seroconversion rates in the post-infection windows of 0-7 days, 10-28 days and 6-10 weeks were 46%, 84.7% and 85.3% respectively (n=782). The proportion with a serological response increased with severity of COVID-19 disease. All participants with severe disease, 89.6% with mild to moderate infection and 77.3% of asymptomatic participants had IgG antibodies to the RBD antigen. The threshold values in the nasopharyngeal viral RNA RT-PCR in a subset of asymptomatic and symptomatic seroconverters were comparable (p value: 0.48), with similar results among non-seroconverters (p value: 0.16) (n=169). This is the first report of longitudinal humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection over a period of ten weeks from South Asia. The low seropositivity in asymptomatic participants and differences between assays highlight the importance of contextualizing the understanding of population serosurveys. SummaryWe measured anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD and NC protein IgG in a multi-hospital-based prospective cohort from northern India up to ten weeks post-infection. The lower seroconversion rate among asymptomatic RT-PCR positive participants has public health significance particularly for interpreting community seroprevalence estimates.
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ObjectivesTo assess seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a densely populated urban Indian settings and its implications for disease trends and protective immunity. DesignCross-sectional sero-epidemiological survey linked with administrative reporting of COVID-19 testing data. SettingsPune city in western India Main outcome measurePrevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies were estimated and along with correlates of virus neutralisation and other immune and inflammatory markers. ResultsSeropositivity was extensive (51{middle dot}3%; 95%CI 39{middle dot}9 to 62{middle dot}4) but varied widely in the five localities tested, ranging from 35{middle dot}8% to 66{middle dot}4%. Seropositivity was higher in crowded living conditions in the slums (OR 1{middle dot}91), and was lower in those 65 years or older (OR 0{middle dot}59). The infection-fatality ratio was estimated at 0.21%. Post survey, COVID-19 incidence was lower in areas noted to have higher seroprevalence. Substantial virus-neutralising activity was observed in seropositive individuals, but with considerable heterogeneity in the immune response and possible age-dependent diversity in the antibody repertoire. ConclusionDespite crowded living conditions having facilitated widespread transmission, the variability in seroprevalence in localities that are in geographical proximity indicates a heterogenous spread of infection. Declining infection rates in areas with high seropositivity suggest population-level protection. It is also supported by substantial neutralising activity in asymptomatically infected individuals. This is the first report of a significantly high proportion of protective immune response among asymptomatic individuals in the population. The heterogeneity in antibody levels and neutralisation capacity indicates the existence of immunological sub-groups of functional interest. Trial registrationRegistered with the Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI/2020/07/026509)
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ObjectiveEstimate seroprevalence in representative samples from slum and non-slum communities in Mumbai, India, a mega-city in a low or middle-income country and test if prevalence is different in slums. DesignAfter geographically-spaced community sampling of households, one individual per household was tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 N-protein in a two-week interval. SettingSlum and non-slum communities in three wards, one each from the three main zones of Mumbai. ParticipantsIndividuals over age 12 who consent to and have no contraindications to venipuncture were eligible. 6,904 participants (4,202 from slums and 2,702 from non-slums) were tested. Main outcome measuresThe primary outcomes were the positive test rate for IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 N-protein by demographic group (age and gender) and location (slums and non-slums). The secondary outcome is seroprevalence at slum and non-slum levels. Sera was tested via chemiluminescence (CLIA) using Abbott Diagnostics ArchitectTM N-protein based test. Seroprevalence was calculated using weights to match the population distribution by age and gender and accounting for imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the test. ResultsThe positive test rate was 54.1% (95% CI: 52.7 to 55.6) and 16.1% (95% CI: 14.9 to 17.4) in slums and non-slums, respectively, a difference of 38 percentage points (P < 0.001). Accounting for imperfect accuracy of tests (e.g., sensitivity, 0.90; specificity 1.00), seroprevalence was as high as 58.4% (95% CI: 56.8 to 59.9) and 17.3% (95% CI: 16 to 18.7) in slums and non-slums, respectively. ConclusionsThe high seroprevalence in slums implies a moderate infection fatality rate. The stark difference in seroprevalence across slums and non-slums has implications for the efficacy of social distancing, the level of herd immunity, and equity. It underlines the importance of geographic specificity and urban structure in modeling SARS-CoV-2.