The UN Decade of healthy ageing: strengthening measurement for monitoring health and wellbeing of older people.

Over the past 100 years, life expectancy has increased dramatically in nearly all nations. Yet, these extra years of life gained have not all been healthy, particularly for older people aged 60 years and over. In 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and United Nations (UN) member states embraced a sweeping 10-year global plan of action to ensure all older people can live long and healthy lives, formally known as the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing (2021-2030). With the adoption of the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing resolution, countries are committed to implementing collaborative actions to improve the lives of older people, their families and the communities in which they reside. The Decade addresses four interconnected areas of action. Adopting the UN's resolution on the Decade of Healthy Ageing has caused excitement, but a question that has weighed on everyone's mind is how governments will be held accountable? Besides, there have been no goals or targets set for the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing from a programmatic perspective for the action areas, and guidance on measures, data collection, analysis and reporting are urgently needed to support global, regional and national monitoring of the national strategies, programmes and policies. To this end, WHO in collaboration with UN agencies and international agencies established a Technical Advisory Group for Measurement of Healthy Ageing (TAG4MHA) to provide advice on the measurement, monitoring and evaluation of the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing at the global, regional and national levels.

Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call for all countries to reach an under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) of at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths and a neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of at least as low as 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030. We estimated levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2019, and conducted scenario-based projections of the U5MR and NMR from 2020 to 2030 to assess country progress in, and potential for, reaching SDG targets on child survival and the potential under-5 and neonatal deaths over the next decade. METHODS: Levels and trends in under-5 mortality are based on the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database on under-5 mortality, which contains around 18 000 country-year datapoints for 195 countries-nearly 10 000 of those datapoints since 1990. The database includes nationally representative mortality data from vital registration systems, sample registration systems, population censuses, and household surveys. As with previous sets of national UN IGME estimates, a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3) that considers the systematic biases associated with the different data source types was fitted to these data to generate estimates of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality with uncertainty intervals for 1990-2019 for all countries. Levels and trends in the neonatal mortality rate (0-27 days) are modelled separately as the log ratio of the neonatal mortality rate to the under-5 mortality rate using a Bayesian model. Estimated mortality rates are combined with livebirths data to calculate the number of under-5 and neonatal deaths. To assess the regional and global burden of under-5 deaths in the present decade and progress towards SDG targets, we constructed several scenario-based projections of under-5 mortality from 2020 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality trends up to 2030 for each scenario. FINDINGS: The global U5MR decreased by 59% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 56-61) from 93·0 (91·7-94·5) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 37·7 (36·1-40·8) in 2019, while the annual number of global under-5 deaths declined from 12·5 (12·3-12·7) million in 1990 to 5·2 (5·0-5·6) million in 2019-a 58% (55-60) reduction. The global NMR decreased by 52% (90% UI 48-55) from 36·6 (35·6-37·8) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990, to 17·5 (16·6-19·0) in 2019, and the annual number of global neonatal deaths declined from 5·0 (4·9-5·2) million in 1990, to 2·4 (2·3-2·7) million in 2019, a 51% (47-54) reduction. As of 2019, 122 of 195 countries have achieved the SDG U5MR target, and 20 countries are on track to achieve the target by 2030, while 53 will need to accelerate progress to meet the target by 2030. 116 countries have reached the SDG NMR target with 16 on track, leaving 63 at risk of missing the target. If current trends continue, 48·1 million under-5 deaths are projected to occur between 2020 and 2030, almost half of them projected to occur during the neonatal period. If all countries met the SDG target on under-5 mortality, 11 million under-5 deaths could be averted between 2020 and 2030. INTERPRETATION: As a result of effective global health initiatives, millions of child deaths have been prevented since 1990. However, the task of ending all preventable child deaths is not done and millions more deaths could be averted by meeting international targets. Geographical and economic variation demonstrate the possibility of even lower mortality rates for children under age 5 years and point to the regions and countries with highest mortality rates and in greatest need of resources and action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Global, regional, and national estimates and trends in stillbirths from 2000 to 2019: a systematic assessment.

BACKGROUND: Stillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of care around pregnancy and birth. The UN Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health (2016-30) and the Every Newborn Action Plan (led by UNICEF and WHO) call for an end to preventable stillbirths. A first step to prevent stillbirths is obtaining standardised measurement of stillbirth rates across countries. We estimated stillbirth rates and their trends for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 and assessed progress over time. METHODS: For a systematic assessment, we created a dataset of 2833 country-year datapoints from 171 countries relevant to stillbirth rates, including data from registration and health information systems, household-based surveys, and population-based studies. After data quality assessment and exclusions, we used 1531 datapoints to estimate country-specific stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 using a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model, according to a definition of stillbirth of at least 28 weeks' gestational age. Our model combined covariates with a temporal smoothing process such that estimates were informed by data for country-periods with high quality data, while being based on covariates for country-periods with little or no data on stillbirth rates. Bias and additional uncertainty associated with observations based on alternative stillbirth definitions and source types, and observations that were subject to non-sampling errors, were included in the model. We compared the estimated stillbirth rates and trends to previously reported mortality estimates in children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, an estimated 2·0 million babies (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·9-2·2) were stillborn at 28 weeks or more of gestation, with a global stillbirth rate of 13·9 stillbirths (90% UI 13·5-15·4) per 1000 total births. Stillbirth rates in 2019 varied widely across regions, from 22·8 stillbirths (19·8-27·7) per 1000 total births in west and central Africa to 2·9 (2·7-3·0) in western Europe. After west and central Africa, eastern and southern Africa and south Asia had the second and third highest stillbirth rates in 2019. The global annual rate of reduction in stillbirth rate was estimated at 2·3% (90% UI 1·7-2·7) from 2000 to 2019, which was lower than the 2·9% (2·5-3·2) annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate (for neonates aged <28 days) and the 4·3% (3·8-4·7) annual rate of reduction in mortality rate among children aged 1-59 months during the same period. Based on the lower bound of the 90% UIs, 114 countries had an estimated decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000, with four countries having a decrease of at least 50·0%, 28 having a decrease of 25·0-49·9%, 50 having a decrease of 10·0-24·9%, and 32 having a decrease of less than 10·0%. For the remaining 81 countries, we found no decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000. Of these countries, 34 were in sub-Saharan Africa, 16 were in east Asia and the Pacific, and 15 were in Latin America and the Caribbean. INTERPRETATION: Progress in reducing the rate of stillbirths has been slow compared with decreases in the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high stillbirth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention of stillbirths needs increased efforts to raise public awareness, improve data collection, assess progress, and understand public health priorities locally, all of which require investment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.